A multi-level analysis of innovation diffusion: The case of solar photovoltaic systems in Germany and the disillusion of grid parity

¿Suministrarán las fuentes de energía renovables toda la energía que el mundo necesita algún día? Algunos argumentan que sí, mientras que otros dicen que no. Sin embargo, en algunas regiones del mundo, la producción de electricidad a través de fuentes de energía renovables ya está en una etapa prometedora de desarrollo en la que su costo de generación de electricidad compite con fuentes de electricidad convencionales, como por ejemplo la paridad de red. Este logro ha sido respaldado por el aumento de la eficiencia de la tecnología, la reducción de los costos de producción y, sobre todo, los años de intervenciones políticas de apoyo financiero. La difusión de los sistemas solares fotovoltaicos (PV) en Alemania es un ejemplo relevante. Alemania no sólo es el país líder en términos de capacidad instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV) en todo el mundo, sino también uno de los países pioneros donde la paridad de red se ha logrado recientemente. No obstante, podría haber una nube en el horizonte. La tasa de difusión ha comenzado a declinar en muchas regiones. Además, las empresas solares locales – que se sabe son importantes impulsores de la difusión – han comenzado a enfrentar dificultades para manejar sus negocios. Estos acontecimientos plantean algunas preguntas importantes: ¿Es ésta una disminución temporal en la difusión? ¿Los adoptantes continuarán instalando sistemas fotovoltaicos? ¿Qué pasa con los modelos de negocio de las empresas solares locales? Con base en el caso de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en Alemania a través de un análisis multinivel y dos revisiones literarias complementarias, esta tesis doctoral extiende el debate proporcionando riqueza múltiple de datos empíricos en un conocimiento de contexto limitado. El primer análisis se basa en la perspectiva del adoptante, que explora el nivel "micro" y el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El segundo análisis es una perspectiva a nivel de empresa, que explora los modelos de negocio de las empresas y sus roles impulsores en la difusión de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El tercero análisis es una perspectiva regional, la cual explora el nivel "meso", el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de sistemas fotovoltaicos y sus técnicas de modelado. Los resultados incluyen implicaciones tanto para académicos como políticos, no sólo sobre las innovaciones en energía renovable relativas a la paridad de red, sino también, de manera inductiva, sobre las innovaciones ambientales impulsadas por las políticas que logren la competitividad de costes. ABSTRACT Will renewable energy sources supply all of the world energy needs one day? Some argue yes, while others say no. However, in some regions of the world, the electricity production through renewable energy sources is already at a promising stage of development at which their electricity generation costs compete with conventional electricity sources’, i.e., grid parity. This achievement has been underpinned by the increase of technology efficiency, reduction of production costs and, above all, years of policy interventions of providing financial support. The diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Germany is an important frontrunner case in point. Germany is not only the top country in terms of installed PV systems’ capacity worldwide but also one of the pioneer countries where the grid parity has recently been achieved. However, there might be a cloud on the horizon. The diffusion rate has started to decline in many regions. In addition, local solar firms – which are known to be important drivers of diffusion – have started to face difficulties to run their businesses. These developments raise some important questions: Is this a temporary decline on diffusion? Will adopters continue to install PV systems? What about the business models of the local solar firms? Based on the case of PV systems in Germany through a multi-level analysis and two complementary literature reviews, this PhD Dissertation extends the debate by providing multiple wealth of empirical details in a context-limited knowledge. The first analysis is based on the adopter perspective, which explores the “micro” level and the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems. The second one is a firm-level perspective, which explores the business models of firms and their driving roles in diffusion of PV systems. The third one is a regional perspective, which explores the “meso” level, i.e., the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems and its modeling techniques. The results include implications for both scholars and policymakers, not only about renewable energy innovations at grid parity, but also in an inductive manner, about policy-driven environmental innovations that achieve the cost competiveness.

Evaluating sustainability and food security of peasant farming systems in Mesoamerican highlands

En las últimas décadas, la agricultura sostenible ha sido objeto de gran interés y debate académico, no sólo en términos conceptuales, sino también en términos metodológicos. La persistencia de la inseguridad alimentaria y el deterioro de los recursos naturales en muchas regiones del mundo, ha provocado el surgimiento de numerosas iniciativas centradas en revitalizar la agricultura campesina así como renovadas discusiones sobre el rol que juega la agricultura como motor de desarrollo y principal actividad para alivio de la pobreza. Por ello, cuando hablamos de evaluar sistemas campesinos de montaña, debemos considerar tanto la dimensión alimentaria como las especificidades propias de los sistemas montañosos como base fundamental de la sostenibilidad. Al evaluar la contribución que han hecho alternativas tecnológicas y de manejo en la mejora de la sostenibilidad y la seguridad alimentaria de los sistemas campesinos de montaña en Mesoamérica, surgen tres preguntas de investigación: • ¿Se está evaluando la sostenibilidad de los sistemas campesinos teniendo en cuenta la variabilidad climática, la participación de los agricultores y las dinámicas temporales? • ¿Podemos rescatar tendencias comunes en estos sistemas y extrapolar los resultados a otras zonas? • ¿Son inequívocamente positivas las alternativas propuestas que se han llevado a cabo? En este trabajo se presentan tres evaluaciones de sostenibilidad que tratan de poner de manifiesto cuáles son los retos y oportunidades que enfrentan actualmente los sistemas campesinos de montaña. En primer lugar, se evalúan tres sistemas de manejo agrícola bajo dos años meteorológicamente contrastantes. Se determinó que durante el año que experimentó lluvias abundantes y temperaturas moderadas, los sistemas de bajos insumos, basados en el uso de abonos orgánicos y rotación de cultivos, obtuvieron los mejores resultados en indicadores ecológicos y similares resultados en los económicos y sociales que el sistema de altos insumos químicos. En el segundo año, con heladas tempranas y sequía invernal, la productividad se redujo para todos los sistemas pero los sistemas más diversificados (en variedades de maíz y/o siembra de otros cultivos) pudieron resistir mejor los contratiempos climáticos. En segundo lugar, se evalúa el grado de conocimiento (percepción) campesino para determinar los factores claves que determinan la sostenibilidad de sus sistemas y su seguridad alimentaria. Se determinó que los principales puntos críticos identificados por los campesinos (tamaño de parcela y pendiente del terreno) afectan de forma significativa a cuestiones de índole económica, pero no son capaces de explicar los desequilibrios alimenticios existentes. Realizando un análisis comparativo entre comunidades que presentaban buenos y malos resultados en cuanto a aporte energético y proteico, se determinó que la seguridad alimentaria estaba relacionada con la sostenibilidad de los sistemas y que concretamente estaba ligada a los atributos de equidad y autonomía. Otro resultado destacable fue que las comunidades más marginales y con mayor dificultad de acceso mostraron mayores niveles de inseguridad alimentaria, pero la variabilidad intergrupal fue muy alta. Eso demuestra que la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional forma parte de un complejo sistema de estrategias de autoabastecimiento ligada a la idiosincrasia misma de cada uno de los hogares. En tercer lugar, se evaluó el desempeño de las escuelas de campo de agricultores (ECAs) en la mejora de la sostenibilidad y la seguridad alimentaria de un sistema campesino de montaña. Para ver el efecto del impacto de estas metodologías a largo plazo, se estudiaron tres comunidades donde se habían implementado ECAs hace 8, 5 y 3 años. Encontramos que el impacto fue progresivo ya que fue la comunidad más antigua la que mejores valores obtuvo. El impacto de las ECAs fue rápido y persistente en los indicadores relacionados con la participación, el acceso a servicios básicos y la conservación de los recursos naturales. El estudio demostró un claro potencial de las ECAs en la mejora general de la sostenibilidad y la seguridad alimentaria de estos sistemas, sin embargo se observó una relación directa entre el aumento de producción agrícola y el uso de insumos externos, lo que puede suponer un punto crítico para los ideales sostenibles. ABSTRACT During the last decades, sustainable agriculture has been the subject of considerable academic interest and debate, not only in conceptual terms, but also in methodological ones. The persistence of high levels of environmental degradation and food insecurity in many regions has led to new initiatives focused on revitalizing peasant agriculture and renewed discussions of the role of sustainable agriculture as an engine for development, environmental conservation and poverty alleviation. Therefore, to assess mountain farming systems, we must consider food dimension and taking into account the specificities of the mountain systems as the foundation of sustainability. When evaluating contribution of technological and management alternative proposals in achieving sustainability and food security for peasant farming systems in Mesoamerican highlands, three research questions arise: • Is sustainability of peasant-farming systems being evaluated taking into account climate variability, participation of farmers and temporal dynamics? • Can we rescue common trends in these systems and extrapolate the results to other areas? • What alternative proposals that have been conducted are unequivocally positives? In this document, we present three evaluations of sustainability that try to highlight the challenges and opportunities that currently face mountain farming systems in Mesoamerica. First, we evaluate the sustainability of three agricultural management systems in two contrasting weather years. We determined that during the first year that exposed heavy rains and moderate temperatures, low-input systems, which are based on the use of organic fertilizers and crop rotation, provided better results in terms of ecological indicators and equal results in terms of economic and social indicators than those achieved using a high chemical input system. In the second year, which featured early frosts and a winter drought, productivity declined in all systems; however, the most diversified systems (in terms of the maize varieties grown and the sowing of other crops) more successfully resisted these climatic adversities. Second, we evaluate the farmers’ perception to determine the key drivers for achieving their sustainability and food and nutritional security. We determined that the key factors identified by farmers (landholding size and slope of cropland) exerted significant impacts on economic disparities but did not explain the malnutrition levels. We compared two contrasting hamlets according to their energy and protein supply, one namely Limón Timoté (LT), which did not present food problems and Limón Peña Blanca (LP), which did exhibit food insecurity. The results showed that FNS is linked to sustainability, and it is primarily related to the sustainability attributes of self-reliance and equity. Although the more marginated and inaccessible community exhibited more food insecurity, food and nutritional security depend upon a complex array of self-sufficiency strategies that remain linked to individual household idiosyncrasies. Third, we evaluated the impact of farmer field schools for improving the sustainability and food security of peasant mountain systems. In order to appreciate the long-term impact, we studied three communities where FFSs were implemented eight, five and three years ago, respectively. We found that FFSs have a gradual impact, as the community that first implemented FFSs scores highest. The impact of FFSs was broad and long-lasting for indicators related to participation, access to basic services and conservation of natural resources. This study demonstrates the potential of FFSs, but more attention will have to be paid to critical indicators in order to scale up their potential in the future. We observed a direct relationship between the increase in agricultural production and the use of external inputs, which is a critical point for sustainable ideals.

Comparison of Architectures and Performance of Database Replication Systems

One of the most demanding needs in cloud computing and big data is that of having scalable and highly available databases. One of the ways to attend these needs is to leverage the scalable replication techniques developed in the last decade. These techniques allow increasing both the availability and scalability of databases. Many replication protocols have been proposed during the last decade. The main research challenge was how to scale under the eager replication model, the one that provides consistency across replicas. This thesis provides an in depth study of three eager database replication systems based on relational systems: Middle-R, C-JDBC and MySQL Cluster and three systems based on In-Memory Data Grids: JBoss Data Grid, Oracle Coherence and Terracotta Ehcache. Thesis explore these systems based on their architecture, replication protocols, fault tolerance and various other functionalities. It also provides experimental analysis of these systems using state-of-the art benchmarks: TPC-C and TPC-W (for relational systems) and Yahoo! Cloud Serving Benchmark (In- Memory Data Grids). Thesis also discusses three Graph Databases, Neo4j, Titan and Sparksee based on their architecture and transactional capabilities and highlights the weaker transactional consistencies provided by these systems. It discusses an implementation of snapshot isolation in Neo4j graph database to provide stronger isolation guarantees for transactions.

Nonlinear normal modes in mechanical systems: concept and computation with numerical continuation

The purpose of this Project is, first and foremost, to disclose the topic of nonlinear vibrations and oscillations in mechanical systems and, namely, nonlinear normal modes NNMs to a greater audience of researchers and technicians. To do so, first of all, the dynamical behavior and properties of nonlinear mechanical systems is outlined from the analysis of a pair of exemplary models with the harmonic balanced method. The conclusions drawn are contrasted with the Linear Vibration Theory. Then, it is argued how the nonlinear normal modes could, in spite of their limitations, predict the frequency response of a mechanical system. After discussing those introductory concepts, I present a Matlab package called 'NNMcont' developed by a group of researchers from the University of Liege. This package allows the analysis of nonlinear normal modes of vibration in a range of mechanical systems as extensions of the linear modes. This package relies on numerical methods and a 'continuation algorithm' for the computation of the nonlinear normal modes of a conservative mechanical system. In order to prove its functionality, a two degrees of freedom mechanical system with elastic nonlinearities is analized. This model comprises a mass suspended on a foundation by means of a spring-viscous damper mechanism -analogous to a very simplified model of most suspended structures and machines- that has attached a mass damper as a passive vibration control system. The results of the computation are displayed on frequency energy plots showing the NNMs branches along with modal curves and time-series plots for each normal mode. Finally, a critical analysis of the results obtained is carried out with an eye on devising what they can tell the researcher about the dynamical properties of the system.

An Empirical Comparison of Reuse in Embedded and Nonembedded Systems

High-quality software, delivered on time and budget, constitutes a critical part of most products and services in modern society. Our government has invested billions of dollars to develop software assets, often to redevelop the same capability many times. Recognizing the waste involved in redeveloping these assets, in 1992 the Department of Defense issued the Software Reuse Initiative. The vision of the Software Reuse Initiative was "To drive the DoD software community from its current "re-invent the software" cycle to a process-driven, domain-specific, architecture-centric, library-based way of constructing software.'' Twenty years after issuing this initiative, there is evidence of this vision beginning to be realized in nonembedded systems. However, virtually every large embedded system undertaken has incurred large cost and schedule overruns. Investigations into the root cause of these overruns implicates reuse. Why are we seeing improvements in the outcomes of these large scale nonembedded systems and worse outcomes in embedded systems? This question is the foundation for this research. The experiences of the Aerospace industry have led to a number of questions about reuse and how the industry is employing reuse in embedded systems. For example, does reuse in embedded systems yield the same outcomes as in nonembedded systems? Are the outcomes positive? If the outcomes are different, it may indicate that embedded systems should not use data from nonembedded systems for estimation. Are embedded systems using the same development approaches as nonembedded systems? Does the development approach make a difference? If embedded systems develop software differently from nonembedded systems, it may mean that the same processes do not apply to both types of systems. What about the reuse of different artifacts? Perhaps there are certain artifacts that, when reused, contribute more or are more difficult to use in embedded systems. Finally, what are the success factors and obstacles to reuse? Are they the same in embedded systems as in nonembedded systems? The research in this dissertation is comprised of a series of empirical studies using professionals in the aerospace and defense industry as its subjects. The main focus has been to investigate the reuse practices of embedded systems professionals and nonembedded systems professionals and compare the methods and artifacts used against the outcomes. The research has followed a combined qualitative and quantitative design approach. The qualitative data were collected by surveying software and systems engineers, interviewing senior developers, and reading numerous documents and other studies. Quantitative data were derived from converting survey and interview respondents' answers into coding that could be counted and measured. From the search of existing empirical literature, we learned that reuse in embedded systems are in fact significantly different from nonembedded systems, particularly in effort in model based development approach and quality where the development approach was not specified. The questionnaire showed differences in the development approach used in embedded projects from nonembedded projects, in particular, embedded systems were significantly more likely to use a heritage/legacy development approach. There was also a difference in the artifacts used, with embedded systems more likely to reuse hardware, test products, and test clusters. Nearly all the projects reported using code, but the questionnaire showed that the reuse of code brought mixed results. One of the differences expressed by the respondents to the questionnaire was the difficulty in reuse of code for embedded systems when the platform changed. The semistructured interviews were performed to tell us why the phenomena in the review of literature and the questionnaire were observed. We asked respected industry professionals, such as senior fellows, fellows and distinguished members of technical staff, about their experiences with reuse. We learned that many embedded systems used heritage/legacy development approaches because their systems had been around for many years, before models and modeling tools became available. We learned that reuse of code is beneficial primarily when the code does not require modification, but, especially in embedded systems, once it has to be changed, reuse of code yields few benefits. Finally, while platform independence is a goal for many in nonembedded systems, it is certainly not a goal for the embedded systems professionals and in many cases it is a detriment. However, both embedded and nonembedded systems professionals endorsed the idea of platform standardization. Finally, we conclude that while reuse in embedded systems and nonembedded systems is different today, they are converging. As heritage embedded systems are phased out, models become more robust and platforms are standardized, reuse in embedded systems will become more like nonembedded systems.

A Survey on FPGA-Based Sensor Systems: Towards Intelligent and Reconfigurable Low-Power Sensors for Computer Vision, Control and Signal Processing

The current trend in the evolution of sensor systems seeks ways to provide more accuracy and resolution, while at the same time decreasing the size and power consumption. The use of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) provides specific reprogrammable hardware technology that can be properly exploited to obtain a reconfigurable sensor system. This adaptation capability enables the implementation of complex applications using the partial reconfigurability at a very low-power consumption. For highly demanding tasks FPGAs have been favored due to the high efficiency provided by their architectural flexibility (parallelism, on-chip memory, etc.), reconfigurability and superb performance in the development of algorithms. FPGAs have improved the performance of sensor systems and have triggered a clear increase in their use in new fields of application. A new generation of smarter, reconfigurable and lower power consumption sensors is being developed in Spain based on FPGAs. In this paper, a review of these developments is presented, describing as well the FPGA technologies employed by the different research groups and providing an overview of future research within this field.

Neutrosophic and Modal Components of Relations in Complex Systems

Semiotic components in the relations of complex systems depend on the Subject. There are two main semiotic components: Neutrosophic and Modal. Modal components are alethical and deontical. In this paper the authors applied the theory of Neutrosophy and Modal Logic to Deontical Impure Systems.

Behaviours, Processes and Probabilistic Environmental Functions in H-Open Systems

The Patten’s Theory of the Environment, supposes an impotent contribution to the Theoretical Ecology. The hypothesis of the duality of environments, the creaon and genon functions and the three developed propositions are so much of great importance in the field of the Applied Mathematical as Ecology. The authors have undertaken an amplification and revision of this theory, developing the following steps: 1) A theory of processes. 2) A definition of structural and behavioural functions. 3) A probabilistic definition of the environmental functions. In this paper the authors develop the theory of behavioural functions, begin the theory of environmental functions and give a complementary focus to the theory of processes that has been developed in precedent papers.

Theory of Systems, Systems Metaphysics and Neoplatonism

Science has been developed from the rational-empirical methods, having as a consequence, the representation of existing phenomena without understanding the root causes. The question which currently has is the sense of the being, and in a simplified way, one can say that the dogmatic religion lead to misinterpretations, the empirical sciences contain the exact rational representations of phenomena. Thus, Science has been able to get rid of the dogmatic religion. The project for the sciences of being looks to return to reality its essential foundations; under the plan of theory of systems necessarily involves a search for the meaning of Reality.

Syntactic and Semantic Relationships in Models of Complex Systems: An Ecological Case

In this paper, the authors extend and generalize the methodology based on the dynamics of systems with the use of differential equations as equations of state, allowing that first order transformed functions not only apply to the primitive or original variables, but also doing so to more complex expressions derived from them, and extending the rules that determine the generation of transformed superior to zero order (variable or primitive). Also, it is demonstrated that for all models of complex reality, there exists a complex model from the syntactic and semantic point of view. The theory is exemplified with a concrete model: MARIOLA model.

The Modelling of Photovoltaic, Solar Thermal, and Photovoltaic/Thermal Domestic Hot Water Systems

Solar heating of potable water has traditionally been accomplished through the use of solar thermal (ST) collectors. With the recent increases in availability and lower cost of photovoltaic (PV) panels, the potential of coupling PV solar arrays to electrically heated domestic hot water (DHW) tanks has been considered. Additionally, innovations in the SDHW industry have led to the creation of photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) collectors, which heat water using both electrical and thermal energy. The current work compared the performance and cost-effectiveness of a traditional solar thermal (ST) DHW system to PV-solar-electric DHW systems and a PV/T DHW system. To accomplish this, a detailed TRNSYS model of the solar hot water systems was created and annual simulations were performed for 250 L/day and 325 L/day loads in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Halifax, and Calgary. It was shown that when considering thermal performance, PV-DHW systems were not competitive when compared to ST-DHW and PVT-DHW systems. As an example, for Toronto the simulated annual solar fractions of PV-DHW systems were approximately 30%, while the ST-DHW and PVT-DHW systems achieved 65% and 71% respectively. With current manufacturing and system costs, the PV-DHW system was the most cost-effective system for domestic purposes. The capital cost of the PV-DHW systems were approximately $1,923-$2,178 depending on the system configuration, and the ST-DHW and PVT system were estimated to have a capital cost of $2,288 and $2,373 respectively. Although the capital cost of the PVT-DHW system was higher than the other systems, a Present Worth analysis for a 20-year period showed that for a 250 L/day load in Toronto the Present Worth of the PV/T system was approximately $4,597, with PV-DHW systems costing approximately $7,683-$7,816 and the ST-DHW system costing $5,238.

Modelling and control of refrigeration systems: an account of a pedagogic experiment in a post-secondary technical course

Comunicação apresentada no CYTEF 2016/VIII Congresso Ibérico | VI Congresso Ibero-Americano de Ciências e Técnicas do Frio, 3-6 maio 2016, Coimbra, Portugal

Developing freeway and incident management systems using the national ITS architecture.

Performing organizations: Mitretek Systems and PB Farradyne, Inc.

An analysis of the distinction between deep and shallow expert systems /

This paper analyzes the relationship between the techniques used to build expert systems and the behaviors they exhibit to show that there is not sufficient evidence to link the behavioral shortcomings of first-generation expert systems to the shallow methods of representation and inference they employ. There is only evidence that the shortcomings are a consequence of a general lack of knowledge. Moreover, the paper shows that the first-generation of expert systems employ both shallow methods and most of the so-called deep methods. Lastly, we show that deeper methods augment but do not replace shallow reasoning methods; most expert systems should possess both."

Effects of cereal species, legume species, and nitrogen on no-till winter wheat and rye grown with perennial forage legume living mulches /

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Cornell University, May, 1988.