The distortion of currencies misalignments on trade Instruments: or why currencies wars are not over

The negotiations of mega agreements between the US and the Pacific countries (TPP) and between the US and the EU (TTIP) are raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. TPP and TTIP are proclaimed to be the designers of the rules for the XXI Century. Old trade instruments such as tariffs are said to be no more important for TTIP because tariffs are negligible among those partners but significant to for TPP. Another relevant agreement in negotiation is between the EU and Mercosul, where tariffs are the most important issue in discussion. The main purpose of this paper is to shows that tariff are important for all these agreements, not because of its nominal value, but because the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs are so significant that all concessions can be distorted by overvalued and by devaluated currencies. The article is divided into several sections: the first gives an introduction to the issue; the second explains the methodologies used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents some results for Brazil, US and China; the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication” and examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a basket of currencies (a virtual currency of the World) and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The fifth presents some estimates for the main PTAs. The conclusions are present in the last section

Sobre o custo do tempo para a competitividade da indústria brasileira: diagnóstico e síntese dos impactos econômicos da facilitação do comércio no Brasil

Este artigo analisa a importância dos atrasos portuários para a competitividade da indústria de transformação no Brasil. Com base em estimativas recentes sobre o custo diário dos atrasos comerciais e em bases de dados do Banco Mundial e do GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), revela a magnitude destas barreiras sob a forma de seus equivalentes ad valorem. Em seguida, por meio de simulações em equilíbrio geral, estima o impacto da melhoria dos processos aduaneiros sobre o desempenho da indústria de transformação no Brasil, sob diferentes cenários. Os resultados obtidos ressaltam o caráter estratégico da facilitação do comércio para o Brasil e da sua inclusão como item relevante para a agenda de crescimento de longo prazo do país

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements

Assessment of value creation in private equity: the acquisition of Burger King by 3G Capital

This thesis elaborates the creation of value in private equity and in particular analyzes value creation in 3G Capital’s acquisition of Burger King. In this sense, a specific model is applied that composes value creation into several drivers, in order to answer the question of how value creation can be addressed in private equity investments. Although previous research by Achleitner et al. (2010) introduced a specific model that addresses value creation in private equity, the respective model was neither applied to an individual company, nor linked to indirect drivers that explain the dynamics and rationales for the creation of value. In turn this paper applies the quantitative model to an ongoing private equity investment and thereby provides different extensions to turn the model into a better forecasting model for ongoing investments, instead of only analyzing a deal that has already been divested from an ex post perspective. The chosen research approach is a case study about the Burger King buyout that first includes an extensive review about the current status of academic literature, second a quantitative calculation and qualitative interpretation of different direct value drivers, third a qualitative breakdown of indirect drivers, and lastly a recapitulating discussion about value creation and value drivers. Presenting a very successful private equity investment and elaborately demonstrating the dynamics and mechanisms that drive value creation in this case, provides important implications for other private equity firms as well as public firms in order to develop their proprietary approach towards value creation.

Alterações qualitativas em contratos de obra pública e a teoria econômica dos contratos incompletos : é possível construir um avião em pleno voo?

Não é de hoje que o país assiste à descoberta de incontáveis casos de desvios de recursos públicos ou mesmo à má gestão de contratos de obra pública que ocasionam, além de grave prejuízo ao Erário, danos à sociedade, muitas vezes desprovida da utilidade que seria proporcionada pelo pactuado. Essas condutas normalmente são ensejadas por projetos de engenharia que podem ser considerados meras peças de ficção, pois não representam o esforço correto para a execução do bem que se deseja construir. A Lei nº 8.666/93 permite a licitação com base em projeto básico, o que, segundo a atual onda de pensamento brasileira, seja da doutrina, dos órgãos de controle, do Poder Legislativo e até mesmo da mídia, é, de fato, um sério problema a ser enfrentado, pois a sua contratação dá margem a aditivos, entendidos como os grandes vilões das obras públicas. Por isso, o Tribunal de Contas da União vem decidindo no sentido de fortemente restringir a possibilidade de alteração contratual e, além disso, tem capitaneado projetos no Congresso Nacional que visam praticamente à extinção da empreitada por preço unitário, espécie contratual na qual o risco do projeto, ainda sem as definições necessárias, acaba por ser assumido pela Administração contratante, responsável pela elaboração, e não pelo seu executor. Contudo, no caso de obras complexas de infraestrutura, deve-se perquirir se essa postura, que pretende acabar com a margem decisória do gestor público quanto à extensão da incompletude do projeto básico - e, portanto, do objeto do contrato -, merece ser repensada, não com vistas a possibilitar os recorrentes danos, mas no caminho de uma melhor programação das ações estatais. Isso porque nessas hipóteses, a busca por todas as informações necessárias para a confecção do projeto a ser ao final executado, no momento da elaboração do edital, ou é muito custosa ou simplesmente não é possível. Assim, seria mais eficiente a contratação integrada, prevista na Lei do Regime Diferenciado de Contratação, na qual o risco do projeto pode se alocado ao contratado. Ocorre que, como existem restrições, nem sempre é viável esse caminho. Nessa ordem de ideias, deve-se encontrar uma solução para que o tradicional contrato de obra pública supere os seus graves problemas de incentivos. A proposta do presente trabalho é a introdução de um procedimento de tomada de decisão transparente, que confira segurança jurídica e amplo conhecimento da sociedade, além de livre acesso aos órgãos de controle, a partir de critérios não apenas jurídicos, mas econômicos e técnicos.

Prática de gestão de projetos : um estudo de caso da aderência e dissonância da sistemática de uma empresa brasileira de PMBOK

Os projetos são frequentemente utilizados como um meio de direta ou indiretamente alcançar os objetivos do plano estratégico de uma organização e está em curso um movimento de valorização desta prática. Esta valorização da gestão por projeto é perceptível no crescente número de instituições preocupadas em disseminar a disciplina de gerenciamento de projetos, no movimento por parte dos executivos em promover a profissão do gerente de projetos e no volume de investimento financeiro dedicado a esta prática. A atual confiança neste modelo de gestão traz consigo uma alta expectativa quanto a seus resultados, que, por sua vez, exigem uma metodologia de gestão eficiente. Uma das maiores empresas brasileira é reconhecida mundialmente pela excelência em sua implantação de projetos de grande a porte financeiro. Por trás deste sucesso está uma sistemática desenvolvida internamente para a gestão de projetos. Tendo em vista a inexistência de uma instituição brasileira de práticas de projeto, qual será a aderência da sistemática da empresa a prática internacional de gestão de projetos? Este estudo de caso busca apontar os principais pontos de aderência e a dissonância entre a sistemática proposta pela empresa e a metodologia de gestão de projetos do Project Management Institute, o PMBOK.

Cabinet composition and assessment of a multiparty presidential system

This doctoral dissertation provides a detailed analysis of the Brazilian cabinet according to the concepts of a multiparty presidential system. Appointing politicians as ministers is one of the most important coalition-building tools and has been widely used by minority presidents. This dissertation will therefore analyze the high-level Brazilian national bureaucracy between 1995 and 2014. It argues that the ministries – or departments – are not equal, and that allied parties therefore take into account the different characteristics of a ministry when demanding positions as a patronage strategy or for use as other kinds of political assets. After reviewing the literature on the theme, followed by a comparative analysis of the Brazilian, Chilean, Mexican, and Guatemalan cabinets, all the Brazilian ministries will be weighed and ranked on a scale that is able to measure their political importance and attractiveness. This rank takes into account variables such as the budgetary power, the ability to spend money according the ministers’ will, the ability to hire new employees, the ministries’ influence over other governmental agents such as companies, agencies, and so on, the ministers’ tenure in office. Finally, a proxy is provided that seeks to identify the normative power a department may hold. All of these characteristics will then be taken into account in considering the representatives’ opinion, thus helping to ascertain whether the cabinet appointment has been coalescent among the several parties that belong to the president’s coalition.

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments : in search for a WTO solution e medidas compensatórias

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section

5th BRICS Trade and Economic Research Network (TERN) meeting: the impact of mega agreements on BRICS

The BRICS TERN – BRICS Trade and Economics Research Network is a group of independent research institutes established four years ago by five think tanks from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The main objective of the network is to study different aspects of trade and economic relations amongst these five countries. The purpose of the V BRICS TERN Meeting was to analyze and debate the effects of the negotiations of the Mega Agreements, mainly those initiated by the US and the EU, already in negotiation, to each of the BRICS Trade Policies. Both Mega Agreements were examined – the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The studies included the main impacts on trade flows and on the international trade rules system, respecting the perspective of each of the countries concerned. This workshop was an initiative of the Center for Global Trade and Investments (CGTI), a think-tank on International Trade held by FGV Sao Paulo School of Economics. Its main objective is the research on trade regulation, preferential trade agreements, trade and currency, trade and global value chains, through legal analysis and economic modelling. One of its main researches, now, is on the potential economic and legal impacts of the Mega Agreements on Brazil and WTO rules. This meeting was organized in March14, 2014, in Rio de Janeiro, in a perfect timing for introducing such issues in the international agenda, in advance of the 6th BRICS Summit scheduled to be held in Brazil in July 2014.