Finding the Fit Between Engineering Design and Cost Information

This paper analyzes the possibilities of integrating cost information and engineering design. Special emphasis is put on finding the potential of using the activity-based costing (ABC) method. Today, the problem of cost estimation in engineering design is that there are two separate extremes of knowledge. On the one extreme, the engineers model the technical parametres behindcosts in great detail but do not get appropriate cost information to their elegant models. On the other extreme, the accounting professionals are stuck with traditional cost accounting methods driven by the procedures and cycles of financial accounting. Therefore, in many cases, the cost information needs of various decision making groups, for example design engineers, are not served satisfactorily. This paper studies if the activity-based costing (ABC) method could offer a compromise between the two extremes. Recognizing activities and activity chains as well as activity and cost drivers could be specially beneficial for design engineers. Also, recognizing the accurate and reliable product costs of existing products helps when doing variant design. However, ABC is not at its best if the cost system becomes too complicated. This is why a comprehensive ABC-cost information system with detailed cost information for the use of design engineers should be examined critically. ABC is at its best when considering such issues as which activities drive costs, the cost of product complexity, allocating indirect costs on the products, the relationships between processes and costs, and the cost of excess capacity.

Moral Hazard in Repeated Procurement of Services

This paper analyzes repeated procurement of services as a four-stage game divided into two periods. In each period there is (1) a contest stage à la Tullock in which the principal selects an agent and (2) a service stage in which the selected agent provides a service. Since this service effort is non-verifiable, the principal faces a moral hazard problem at the service stages. This work considers how the principal should design the period-two contest to mitigate the moral hazard problem in the period-one service stage and to maximize total service and contest efforts. It is shown that the principal must take account of the agent's past service effort in the period-two contest success function. The results indicate that the optimal way to introduce this `bias' is to choose a certain degree of complementarity between past service and current contest efforts. This result shows that contests with `additive bias' (`multiplicative bias') are optimal in incentive problems when effort cost is low (high). Furthermore, it is shown that the severity of the moral hazard problem increases with the cost of service effort (compared to the cost of contest effort) and the number of agents. Finally, the results are extended to more general contest success functions. JEL classification: C72; D82 Key words: Biased contests; Moral Hazard; Repeated Game; Incentives.

Persistence of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance Mutations Associated with Fitness Costs and Viral Genetic Backgrounds.

Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare. Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables. In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates. Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation.

Available evidence and outcome of off-label use of rituximab in clinical practice

Purpose: To analyze the therapeutic indications for off-label use of rituximab, the available evidence for its use, the outcomes, and the cost. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of patients treated with rituximab for off-label indications from January 2007 to December 2009 in two tertiary hospitals. Information on patient characteristics, medical conditions, and therapeutic responses was collected from medical records. Available evidence for the efficacy of rituximab in each condition was reviewed, and the cost of treatment was calculated. Results: A total of 101 cases of off-label rituximab use were analyzed. The median age of the patients involved was 53 [interquartile range (IQR) 37.5-68.0] years; 55.4 % were women. The indications for prescribing rituximab were primarily hematological diseases (46 %), systemic connective tissue disorders (27 %), and kidney diseases (20 %). Available evidence supporting rituximab treatment for these indications mainly came from individual cohort studies (53.5 % of cases) and case series (25.7 %). The short-term outcome (median 3 months, IQR 2-4 months) was a complete response in 38 % of cases and partial response in 32.6 %. The highest short-term responses were observed for systemic lupus erythematosus and membranous glomerulonephritis, and the lowest was for neuromyelitis optica, idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, and miscellaneous indications. Some response was maintained in long-term follow-up (median 23 months IQR 12-30months) in 69.2%of patients showing a short-term response. Median cost per patient was 5,187.5 (IQR 5,187.5-7,781.3). Conclusions: In our study, off-label rituximab was mainly used for the treatment of hematological, kidney, and systemic connective tissue disorders, and the response among our patient cohort was variable depending on the specific disease. The level of evidence supporting the use of rituximab for these indications was low and the cost was very high. We conclude that more clinical trials on the off-label use of rituximab are needed, although these may be difficult to conduct in some rare diseases. Data from observational studies may provide useful information to assist prescribing in clinical practice.

Low-ARPU mobile offering in the selected markets of Russia and Eurasia

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on analysoida alhaisen tuloluokan segmentille kohdennettavaa mobiilituotetarjoomaa lähtien kohdesegmenttien määrittelystä aina suositeltavien tuoteominaisuuksien rajaamiseen. Taustatutkimuksen avulla selvitetään mobiilimarkkinoiden kehitykseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä asiakaspotentiaalin ja tulevaisuudennäkymien arvioimiseksi. Haastattelututkimuksen avulla on selvitetty kohdesegmentin mobiilipalvelujen tarvetta ja kyseisten markkinoiden tarjoamia mahdollisuuksia, jotta tähän tarpeeseen voidaan kannattavasti vastata. Mobiilipalveluiden saattamiseksi myös alhaisten tuloluokkien ulottuville, on loppuasiakkaalle mobiililiittymän hankkimisesta aiheutuva kokonaiskustannus saatava laskettua huomattavasti nykyistä alhaisemmalle tasolle. Tämä edellyttää, että operaattorin on voitava karsia omia kustannuksiaan jokaisella osa-alueella, ja kehitettävä uusia liiketoimintamalleja kannattavuuden säilyttämiseksi. Pohjimmiltaan tämä tarkoittaa sujuvaa yhteistyötä verkkojen ja mobiilipuhelinten valmistajien kanssa, huolellista markkinoiden segmentointia sekä tuotetarjooman kohdentamista.

Effects of mergers and acquisitions in the paper industry

Paperiteollisuus on ollut perinteisesti fragmentoitunut toimiala, mutta viime vuosikymmenen aikana konsolidoitumisprosessi on kiihtynyt. Yrityskaupat ja fuusiot ovat muuttaneet paperiteollisuuden markkinarakennetta merkittävästi. Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia yleisesti markkinarakenteen vaikutusta liiketoiminnan tuloksiin sekä analysoida yrityskauppojen ja fuusioiden syitä, tuloksia ja rajoituksia. Tavoitteena oli myös tutkia paperiteollisuuden konsolidoitumisen vaikutuksia hintakehitykseen, hintaheilahteluihin ja kannattavuuteen. Keskeisenä syynä konsolidoitumiskehitykselle voidaan pitää uusien paperikoneiden huomattavaa investointikustannusten kasvua. Toinen tärkeä tekijä yhdentymiskehitykselle on se, että paperiteollisuus on saavuttanut elinkaaren kypsyysvaiheen Euroopassa, Pohjois-Amerikassa ja Japanissa. Yrityskauppojen ja fuusioiden motiiveja paperiteollisuudessa ovat mm. kasvu kypsillä markkinoilla, tarve parantaa taloudellista tulosta, mahdollisuus toimia globaalisti ja hyödyntää siitä saatavat edut tai mahdollisuus parempaan arvoketjun hallintaan. Näyttää siltä, että suurempien paperiteollisuusyritysten kannattavuus ei ole parempi kuin pienemmillä yrityksillä. Lisäksi useimmissa paperiteollisuuden yrityskaupoissa ja fuusioissa näyttäisi ostavan osapuolen kurssikehitys ilmoitusta seuraavana päivänä olevan negatiivinen.

Energetics and mechanics of walking in patients with chronic low back pain and healthy matched controls.

PURPOSE: Walking in patients with chronic low back pain (cLBP) is characterized by motor control adaptations as a protective strategy against further injury or pain. The purpose of this study was to compare the preferred walking speed, the biomechanical and the energetic parameters of walking at different speeds between patients with cLBP and healthy men individually matched for age, body mass and height. METHODS: Energy cost of walking was assessed with a breath-by-breath gas analyser; mechanical and spatiotemporal parameters of walking were computed using two inertial sensors equipped with a triaxial accelerometer and gyroscope and compared in 13 men with cLBP and 13 control men (CTR) during treadmill walking at standard (0.83, 1.11, 1.38, 1.67 m s(-1)) and preferred (PWS) speeds. Low back pain intensity (visual analogue scale, cLBP only) and perceived exertion (Borg scale) were assessed at each walking speed. RESULTS: PWS was slower in cLBP [1.17 (SD = 0.13) m s(-1)] than in CTR group [1.33 (SD = 0.11) m s(-1); P = 0.002]. No significant difference was observed between groups in mechanical work (P ≥ 0.44), spatiotemporal parameters (P ≥ 0.16) and energy cost of walking (P ≥ 0.36). At the end of the treadmill protocol, perceived exertion was significantly higher in cLBP [11.7 (SD = 2.4)] than in CTR group [9.9 (SD = 1.1); P = 0.01]. Pain intensity did not significantly increase over time (P = 0.21). CONCLUSIONS: These results do not support the hypothesis of a less efficient walking pattern in patients with cLBP and imply that high walking speeds are well tolerated by patients with moderately disabling cLBP.

Ability of physicians to diagnose influenza and usefulness of a rapid influenza antigen test in febrile returning travelers: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Fever is a frequent cause of medical consultation among returning travelers. The objectives of this study were to assess whether physicians were able to identify patients with influenza and whether the use of an influenza rapid diagnostic test (iRDT) modified the clinical management of such patients. METHODS: Randomized controlled trial conducted at 2 different Swiss hospitals between December 2008 and November 2012. Inclusion criteria were 1) age ≥18 years, 2) documented fever of ≥38 °C or anamnestic fever + cough or sore throat within the last 4 days, 3) illness occurring within 14 days after returning from a trip abroad, 4) no definitive alternative diagnosis. Physicians were asked to estimate the likelihood of influenza on clinical grounds, and a single nasopharyngeal swab was taken. Thereafter patients were randomized into 2 groups: i) patients with iRDT (BD Directigen A + B) performed on the nasopharyngeal swab, ii) patients receiving usual care. A quantitative PCR to detect influenza was done on all nasopharyngeal swabs after the recruitment period. Clinical management was evaluated on the basis of cost of medical care, number of X-rays requested and prescription of anti-infective drugs. RESULTS: 100 eligible patients were referred to the investigators. 93 patients had a naso-pharyngeal swab for a PCR and 28 (30%) swabs were positive for influenza. The median probability of influenza estimated by the physician was 70% for the PCR positive cases and 30% for the PCR negative cases (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of the iRDT was only 20%, and specificity 100%. Mean medical cost for the patients managed with iRDT and without iRDT were USD 581 (95%CI 454-707) and USD 661 (95%CI 522-800) respectively. 14/60 (23%) of the patients managed with iRDT were prescribed antibiotics versus 13/33 (39%) in the control group (p = 0.15). No patient received antiviral treatment. CONCLUSION: Influenza was a frequent cause of fever among these febrile returning travelers. Based on their clinical assessment, physicians had a higher level of suspicion for influenza in PCR positive cases. The iRDT used in this study showed a disappointingly low sensitivity and can therefore not be recommended for the management of these patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00821626.

Comparison of electricity generation costs

The economical competitiveness of various power plant alternatives is compared. The comparison comprises merely electricity producing power plants. Combined heat and power (CHP) producing power will cover part of the future power deficit in Finland, but also condensing power plants for base load production will be needed. The following types of power plants are studied: nuclear power plant, combined cycle gas turbine plant, coal-fired condensing power plant, peat-fired condensing power plant, wood-fired condensing power plant and wind power plant. The calculations are carried out by using the annuity method with a real interest rate of 5 % per annum and with a fixed price level as of January 2008. With the annual peak load utilization time of 8000 hours (corresponding to a load factor of 91,3 %) the production costs would be for nuclear electricity 35,0 €/MWh, for gas based electricity 59,2 €/MWh and for coal based electricity 64,4 €/MWh, when using a price of 23 €/tonCO2 for the carbon dioxide emission trading. Without emission trading the production cost of gas electricity is 51,2 €/MWh and that of coal electricity 45,7 €/MWh and nuclear remains the same (35,0 €/MWh) In order to study the impact of changes in the input data, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out. It reveals that the advantage of the nuclear power is quite clear. E.g. the nuclear electricity is rather insensitive to the changes of nuclear fuel price, whereas for natural gas alternative the rising trend of gas price causes the greatest risk. Furthermore, increase of emission trading price improves the competitiveness of the nuclear alternative. The competitiveness and payback of the nuclear power investment is studied also as such by using various electricity market prices for determining the revenues generated by the investment. The profitability of the investment is excellent, if the market price of electricity is 50 €/MWh or more.

Sex- and melanism-specific variations in the oxidative status of adult tawny owls in response to manipulated reproductive effort.

Oxidative stress, determined by the balance between the production of damaging reactive oxygen species (ROS) and antioxidant defences, is hypothesized to play an important role in shaping the cost of reproduction and life history trade-offs. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated reproductive effort in 94 breeding pairs of tawny owls (Strix aluco) to investigate the sex- and melanism-specific effects on markers of oxidative stress in red blood cells (RBCs). This colour polymorphic bird species shows sex-specific division of labour and melanism-specific history strategies. Brood sizes at hatching were experimentally enlarged or reduced to increase or decrease reproductive effort, respectively. We obtained an integrative measure of the oxidative balance by measuring ROS production by RBCs, intracellular antioxidant glutathione levels and membrane resistance to ROS. We found that light melanic males (the sex undertaking offspring food provisioning) produced more ROS than darker conspecifics, but only when rearing an enlarged brood. In both sexes, light melanic individuals had also a larger pool of intracellular antioxidant glutathione than darker owls under relaxed reproductive conditions (i.e. reduced brood), but not when investing substantial effort in current reproduction (enlarged brood). Finally, resistance to oxidative stress was differently affected by the brood size manipulation experiment in males and females independently of their plumage coloration. Altogether, our results support the hypothesis that reproductive effort can alter the oxidative balance in a sex- and colour-specific way. This further emphasizes the close link between melanin-based coloration and life history strategies.

Experimental enhancement of corticosterone levels positively affects subsequent male survival.

Corticosterone is an important hormone of the stress response that regulates physiological processes and modifies animal behavior. While it positively acts on locomotor activity, it may negatively affect reproduction and social activity. This suggests that corticosterone may promote behaviors that increase survival at the cost of reproduction. In this study, we experimentally investigate the link between corticosterone levels and survival in adult common lizards (Lacerta vivipara) by comparing corticosterone-treated with placebo-treated lizards. We experimentally show that corticosterone enhances energy expenditure, daily activity, food intake, and it modifies the behavioral time budget. Enhanced appetite of corticosterone-treated individuals compensated for increased energy expenditure and corticosterone-treated males showed increased survival. This suggests that corticosterone may promote behaviors that reduce stress and it shows that corticosterone per se does not reduce but directly or indirectly increases longer-term survival. This suggests that the production of corticosterone as a response to a stressor may be an adaptive mechanism that even controls survival.

People favour imperfect catching by assuming a stable world

The visual angle that is projected by an object (e.g. a ball) on the retina depends on the object's size and distance. Without further information, however, the visual angle is ambiguous with respect to size and distance, because equal visual angles can be obtained from a big ball at a longer distance and a smaller one at a correspondingly shorter distance. Failure to recover the true 3D structure of the object (e.g. a ball's physical size) causing the ambiguous retinal image can lead to a timing error when catching the ball. Two opposing views are currently prevailing on how people resolve this ambiguity when estimating time to contact. One explanation challenges any inference about what causes the retinal image (i.e. the necessity to recover this 3D structure), and instead favors a direct analysis of optic flow. In contrast, the second view suggests that action timing could be rather based on obtaining an estimate of the 3D structure of the scene. With the latter, systematic errors will be predicted if our inference of the 3D structure fails to reveal the underlying cause of the retinal image. Here we show that hand closure in catching virtual balls is triggered by visual angle, using an assumption of a constant ball size. As a consequence of this assumption, hand closure starts when the ball is at similar distance across trials. From that distance on, the remaining arrival time, therefore, depends on ball's speed. In order to time the catch successfully, closing time was coupled with ball's speed during the motor phase. This strategy led to an increased precision in catching but at the cost of committing systematic errors.

Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.

The forced adoption of a fast-track appraisal process for a breast cancer treatment in UK

Trastuzumab (Herceptin ®, Roche) is approved in UK for the treatment of the metastatic breast cancer since 2001. As of 2005, concomitantly with the publication of 3 studies that showed it produces a 50% reduction of the recurrence rates of breast cancer, trastuzumab started to be prescribed in the earlt adjuvant treatrnent of this disease. Und June 2006, trastuzumab did not have both: 1) regulatory approval and 2) NICE [National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence] recommendation for the use in early stages of breast cancer. During the period until June 2006, the trastuzumab use in those patients was not reimbursed and because the cost of trastuzumab is equal with the yearly UK average income, most of patients could not self fund their treatrnent. Before the publication of the final NICE guidance, the new data of trastuzumab in early breast cancer raised enormous patient and professional interest and expectations. A great volume of public and professional pressure was generated to transcend a system by which Primary Care Trusts can reimburse a treatment only after a formal guidance was issued. This paper draw on a case study depicting and analyzing the process by which regulatory approval and NICE recommendations were achieved in a record time and how trastuzumab became a standard treatment on early adjuvant breast cancer. According to the data we gathered in this work we were witnessing one of the fastest processes of adoption of a health care technology since the creation of NICE, in 1999. This study addresses the following research question: How and why does the adoption pattern of trastuzumab differ from the rational decision-making model of the reimbursement process in UK? [Author, p. 4]

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.