CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

An analysis of UK policies for domestic energy reduction using an agent based tool

This paper introduces a new agent-based model, which incorporates the actions of individual homeowners in a long-term domestic stock model, and details how it was applied in energy policy analysis. The results indicate that current policies are likely to fall significantly short of the 80% target and suggest that current subsidy levels need re-examining. In the model, current subsidy levels appear to offer too much support to some technologies, which in turn leads to the suppression of other technologies that have a greater energy saving potential. The model can be used by policy makers to develop further scenarios to find alternative, more effective, sets of policy measures. The model is currently limited to the owner-occupied stock in England, although it can be expanded, subject to the availability of data.

Cost function for sub-agent elements in multi-agent energy management system

Distributed generation plays a key role in reducing CO2 emissions and losses in transmission of power. However, due to the nature of renewable resources, distributed generation requires suitable control strategies to assure reliability and optimality for the grid. Multi-agent systems are perfect candidates for providing distributed control of distributed generation stations as well as providing reliability and flexibility for the grid integration. The proposed multi-agent energy management system consists of single-type agents who control one or more gird entities, which are represented as generic sub-agent elements. The agent applies one control algorithm across all elements and uses a cost function to evaluate the suitability of the element as a supplier. The behavior set by the agent's user defines which parameters of an element have greater weight in the cost function, which allows the user to specify the preference on suppliers dynamically. This study shows the ability of the multi-agent energy management system to select suppliers according to the selection behavior given by the user. The optimality of the supplier for the required demand is ensured by the cost function based on the parameters of the element.

Biology as an agent of chemical and mineralogical change in soil

Earthworms have a significant impact on the functioning of soils and the processes that occur within them. Here we review our work on the impact of earthworms on soil mineralogy and chemistry, in particular focusing on the contribution of earthworms to mineral weathering and calcium carbonate in soils and the impact that earthworms have on metal mobility at contaminated sites.

An energy budget agent-based model of earthworm populations and its application to study the effects of pesticides

Earthworms are important organisms in soil communities and so are used as model organisms in environmental risk assessments of chemicals. However current risk assessments of soil invertebrates are based on short-term laboratory studies, of limited ecological relevance, supplemented if necessary by site-specific field trials, which sometimes are challenging to apply across the whole agricultural landscape. Here, we investigate whether population responses to environmental stressors and pesticide exposure can be accurately predicted by combining energy budget and agent-based models (ABMs), based on knowledge of how individuals respond to their local circumstances. A simple energy budget model was implemented within each earthworm Eisenia fetida in the ABM, based on a priori parameter estimates. From broadly accepted physiological principles, simple algorithms specify how energy acquisition and expenditure drive life cycle processes. Each individual allocates energy between maintenance, growth and/or reproduction under varying conditions of food density, soil temperature and soil moisture. When simulating published experiments, good model fits were obtained to experimental data on individual growth, reproduction and starvation. Using the energy budget model as a platform we developed methods to identify which of the physiological parameters in the energy budget model (rates of ingestion, maintenance, growth or reproduction) are primarily affected by pesticide applications, producing four hypotheses about how toxicity acts. We tested these hypotheses by comparing model outputs with published toxicity data on the effects of copper oxychloride and chlorpyrifos on E. fetida. Both growth and reproduction were directly affected in experiments in which sufficient food was provided, whilst maintenance was targeted under food limitation. Although we only incorporate toxic effects at the individual level we show how ABMs can readily extrapolate to larger scales by providing good model fits to field population data. The ability of the presented model to fit the available field and laboratory data for E. fetida demonstrates the promise of the agent-based approach in ecology, by showing how biological knowledge can be used to make ecological inferences. Further work is required to extend the approach to populations of more ecologically relevant species studied at the field scale. Such a model could help extrapolate from laboratory to field conditions and from one set of field conditions to another or from species to species.

Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial–interglacial contrast

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial–interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies – that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate – from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0–1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

nor-Mevaldic acid surrogates as selective antifungal agent leads against Botrytis cinerea. Enantioselective preparation of 4-hydroxy-6-(1-phenylethoxy)tetrahydro-2H-pyran-2-one

Solvent-free desymmetrisation of meso-dialdehyde 1 with chiral 1-phenylethan-1-ol, led to preparation of 4-silyloxy-6-alkyloxytetrahydro-2H-pyran-2-one (+)-3a with a 96:4 d.r. Deprotected lactone (+)-19a and the related racemic lactones 16a-18a present a lactone moiety resembling the natural substrate of HMG-CoA reductase and their antifungal properties have been evaluated against the phytopathogenic fungi Botrytis cinerea and Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. These compounds were selectively active against B. cinerea, while inactive against C. gloeosporioides.

Use of the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridisation technique for in vivo detection of cariogenic microorganisms on metallic brackets, with or without use of an antimicrobial agent

Objective: Using checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridisation (CDDH) assay, this randomised clinical study evaluated the contamination of metallic brackets by four cariogenic bacterial strains (Streptococcus mutans, Streptococcus sobrinus, Lactobacillus casei and Lactobacillus acidophilus) and the efficacy of 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate (CHX) mouthwashes in reducing bacterial contamination. Methods: Thirty-nine 11-33-year-old patients under treatment with fixed orthodontic appliances were enrolled in the study and had 2 new metallic brackets bonded to premolars. Nineteen patients used a 0.12% CHX mouthwash (Periogard (R)) and 20 patients used a placebo mouthwash (control) twice a week. After 30 days, the brackets were removed and samples were obtained for analysis by CDDH. Data were analysed statistically by the Kruskal-Wallis test (alpha = 0.05) using the SAS software. Results: S. mutans, S. sobrinus, L. casei and L. acidophilus were detected in 100% of the samples from both groups. However, brackets of the control group were more heavily contaminated by S. mutans and S. sobrinus (P < 0.01). In the experimental group, although all counts decreased after rinsing with the chlorhexidine solution, there was significant difference only for S. mutans (P = 0.03). Conclusions: The use of 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate mouthwashes can be useful in clinical practice to reduce the levels of cariogenic microorganisms in patients under treatment with fixed orthodontic appliances. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical comparison between the bleaching efficacy of 37% peroxide carbamide gel mixed with sodium perborate with established intracoronal bleaching agent

Objective. The aim was to evaluate the bleaching efficacy of sodium perborate/37% carbamide peroxide paste and traditional sodium perborate/distilled water for intracoronal bleaching. Study design. Thirty patients with dark anterior teeth were divided into 2 groups (n = 15): group A: sodium perborate/ distilled water; and group B: sodium perborate/37% carbamide peroxide paste. The bleaching treatment limited each patient to the maximum of 4 changes of the bleaching agent. Initial and final color shades were measured using the Vita Lumin shade guide. Results. Data was analyzed with Wilcoxon test for initial and final comparison according to the bleaching agent, demonstrating efficacy of the bleaching treatment with both agents. Mann-Whitney test was used for comparison of the efficacy of the bleaching agents, showing that there was no significant difference between them. Conclusion. The sodium perborate/37% carbamide peroxide association for intracoronal bleaching has proven to be as effective as sodium perborate/distilled water. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2009; 107: e43-e47)

A numerical investigation of the atmosphere-ocean thermal contrast over the coastal upwelling region of Cabo Frio, Brazil

An one-dimensional atmospheric second order closure model, coupled to an oceanic mixed layer model, is used to investigate the short term variation of the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers in the coastal upwelling area of Cabo Frio, Brazil (23 degrees S, 42 degrees 08`W). The numerical simulations were carried out to evaluate the impact caused by the thermal contrast between atmosphere and ocean on the vertical extent and other properties of both atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. The numerical simulations were designed taking as reference the observations carried out during the passage of a cold front that disrupted the upwelling regime in Cabo Frio in July of 1992. The simulations indicated that in 10 hours the mechanical mixing, sustained by a constant background flow of 10 in s(-1), increases the atmospheric boundary layer in 214 in when the atmosphere is initially 2 K warmer than the ocean (positive thermal contrast observed during upwelling regime). For an atmosphere initially -2 K colder than the ocean (negative thermal contrast observed during passage of the cold front), the incipient thermal convection intensifies the mechanical mixing increasing the vertical extent of the atmospheric boundary layer in 360 in. The vertical evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer is consistent with the observations carried out in Cabo Frio during upwelling condition. When the upwelling is disrupted, the discrepancy between the simulated and observed atmospheric boundary layer heights in Cabo Frio during July of 1992 increases considerably. During the period of 10 hours, the simulated oceanic mixed layer deepens 2 in and 5.4 in for positive and negative thermal contrasts of 2 K and -2 K, respectively. In the latter case, the larger vertical extent of the oceanic mixed layer is due to the presence of thermal convection in the atmospheric boundary layer, which in turn is associated to the absence of upwelling caused by the passage of cold fronts in Cabo Frio.

Negative anticipatory contrast: Does it involve anticipation of an impending reward?

Negative anticipatory contrast (NAC) corresponds to the suppression in consumption of a first rewarding substance (e.g., saccharin 0.15%) when it is followed daily by a second preferred substance (e.g., sucrose 32%). The NAC has been interpreted as resulting from anticipation of the impending preferred reward and its comparison with the currently available first reward [Flaherty, CF., Rowan, G.A., 1985. Anticipatory contrast: within-subjects analysis. Anim. Learn. Behav. 13, 2-5]. In this context, one should expect that devaluation of the preferred substance after the establishment of the NAC would either reduce or abolish the contrast effect. However, contrary to this prediction, the results of the present study show that the NAC is insensitive to devaluation of the second, preferred, substance. This allows one to question that interpretation. The results reported in this study support the view that the NAC effect is controlled by memory of the relative value of the first solution, which is updated daily by means of both a gustatory and/or post-ingestive comparison of the first and second solutions, and memory of past pairings. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nox2 B-loop peptide, Nox2ds, specifically inhibits the NADPH oxidase Nox2

In recent years, reactive oxygen species (ROS) derived from the vascular isoforms of NADPH oxidase, Nox1, Nox2, and Nox4, have been implicated in many cardiovascular pathologies. As a result, the selective inhibition of these isoforms is an area of intense current investigation. In this study, we postulated that Nox2ds, a peptidic inhibitor that mimics a sequence in the cytosolic B-loop of Nox2, would inhibit ROS production by the Nox2-. but not the Noxl- and Nox4-oxidase systems. To test our hypothesis, the inhibitory activity of Nox2ds was assessed in cell-free assays using reconstituted systems expressing the Nox2-, canonical or hybrid Nox1- or Nox4-oxidase. Our findings demonstrate that Nox2ds, but not its scrambled control, potently inhibited superoxide (O(2)(center dot-)) production in the Nox2 cell-free system, as assessed by the cytochrome c assay. Electron paramagnetic resonance confirmed that Nox2ds inhibits O(2)(center dot-) production by Nox2 oxidase. In contrast, Nox2ds did not inhibit ROS production by either Nox1- or Nox4-oxidase. These findings demonstrate that Nox2ds is a selective inhibitor of Nox2-oxidase and support its utility to elucidate the role of Nox2 in organ pathophysiology and its potential as a therapeutic agent. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Boosting systemic and secreted antibody responses in mice orally immunized with recombinant Bacillus subtilis strains following parenteral priming with a DNA vaccine encoding the enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) CFA/I fimbriae B subunit

Recombinant Bacillus subtilis strains, either spores or vegetative cells, may be employed as safe and low cost orally delivered live vaccine vehicles. In this study, we report the use of an orally delivered B. subtilis vaccine strain to boost systemic and secreted antibody responses in mice i.m. primed with a DNA vaccine encoding the structural subunit (CfaB) of the CFA/I fimbriae encoded by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), an important etiological agent of diarrhea among travelers and children living in endemic regions. DBA/2 female mice submitted to the prime-boost immunization regimen developed synergic serum (IgG) and mucosal (IgA) antibody responses to the target CfaB antigen. Moreover, in contrast to mice immunized only with one vaccine formulation, sera harvested from prime-boosted vaccinated individuals inhibited adhesion of ETEC cells to human red blood cells. Additionally, vaccinated dams conferred full passive protection to suckling newborn mice challenged with a virulent ETEC strain. Taken together the present results further demonstrate the potential use of recombinant B. subtilis strains as an alternative live vaccine vehicle. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population genetic analysis of large sequence polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage antigens

Plasmodium falciparum, the causative agent of human malaria, invades host erythrocytes using several proteins on the surface of the invasive merozoite, which have been proposed as potential vaccine candidates. Members of the multi-gene PfRh family are surface antigens that have been shown to play a central role in directing merozoites to alternative erythrocyte receptors for invasion. Recently, we identified a large structural polymorphism, a 0.58 Kb deletion, in the C-terminal region of the PfRh2b gene, present at a high frequency in parasite populations from Senegal. We hypothesize that this region is a target of humoral immunity. Here, by analyzing 371 P. falciparum isolates we show that this major allele is present at varying frequencies in different populations within Senegal, Africa, and throughout the world. For allelic dimorphisms in the asexual stage antigens, Msp-2 and EBA-175, we find minimal geographic differentiation among parasite populations from Senegal and other African localities, suggesting extensive gene flow among these populations and/or immune-mediated frequency-dependent balancing selection. In contrast, we observe a higher level of inter-population divergence (as measured by F(st)) for the PfRh2b deletion, similar to that observed for SNPs from the sexual stage Pfs45/48 loci, which is postulated to be under directional selection. We confirm that the region containing the PfRh2b polymorphism is a target of humoral immune responses by demonstrating antibody reactivity of endemic sera. Our analysis of inter-population divergence suggests that in contrast to the large allelic dimorphisms in EBA-175 and Msp-2, the presence or absence of the large PfRh2b deletion may not elicit frequency-dependent immune selection, but may be under positive immune selection, having important implications for the development of these proteins as vaccine candidates. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tamoxifen as a potential antileishmanial agent: efficacy in the treatment of Leishmania braziliensis and Leishmania chagasi infections

The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of tamoxifen in vivo in experimental models of cutaneous (CL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) caused by Leishmania braziliensis and Leishmania chagasi, respectively. Drug activity was assessed against intracellular amastigotes by treating infected macrophage cultures and evaluating the number of infected cells. In vivo efficacy of tamoxifen was tested in L. braziliensis-infected BALB/c mice and in L. chagasi-infected hamsters. Treatment with 20 mg/kg/day tamoxifen was administered for 15 days by the intraperitoneal route. Efficacy was evaluated through measurements of lesion size, parasite burden at the lesion site or liver and spleen and survival rate. Tamoxifen killed L. braziliensis and L. chagasi intracellular amastigotes with 50% inhibitory concentrations (IC(50)) of 1.9 +/- 0.2 and 2.4 +/- 0.3 mu M, respectively. Treatment of L. braziliensis-infected mice with tamoxifen resulted in significant reductions in lesion size and 99% decrease in parasite burden, compared with mock-treated controls. L. chagasi-infected hamsters treated with tamoxifen showed significant reductions in liver parasite load expressed as Leishman-Donovan units and 95% to 98% reduction in spleen parasite burden. All animals treated with tamoxifen survived while 100% of the mock-treated animals had died by 11 weeks after the interruption of treatment. Tamoxifen is effective in the treatment of CL and VL in rodent models.