On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

No interaction between alcohol consumption and HDL-related genes on HDL cholesterol levels.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships and possible interactions between polymorphisms related to HDL levels and alcohol consumption. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based study including 2863 women and 2546 men aged 35-75 years (CoLaus study). Alcohol intake was assessed by the reported alcohol consumption of the last 7 days. Nineteen candidate genes known to influence HDL levels were studied. RESULTS: Alcohol consumption increased HDL cholesterol levels in both genders. After multivariate adjustment for gender, age, body mass index, smoking, hypolipidaemic drug treatment, physical activity and alcohol consumption, APOA5, CETP, LIPC and LPL gene polymorphisms were significantly (10(-5) threshold) related with HDL cholesterol levels, while no genexalcohol intake interaction was found for all SNPs studied. ABCA1 polymorphisms were related to HDL cholesterol levels on bivariate analysis but the relationship was no longer significant after multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our data confirm the association of alcohol consumption and of APOA5, CETP, LIPC and LPL gene polymorphisms with HDL cholesterol levels. Conversely, no genexalcohol consumption interactions were found, suggesting that the effect of alcohol consumption on HDL cholesterol levels is not mediated via a modulation of HDL related genes.

Applications of the MuSIASEM approach to study changes in the metabolic pattern of Catalonia

This document presents an integrated analysis of the performance of Catalonia based on an analysis of how the energy consumption (measured at the societal level for the Catalan Society) is used within both the productive sectors of the economy and the household, to generate added value, jobs, and to guarantee a given level of material standard of living to the population. The trends found in Catalonia are compared to the trends of other European Countries to contextualize the performance of Catalonia with respect to other societies that have followed different paths of economic development. The first part of the document consists of the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach that has been used to provide this integrated analysis of Catalan Society across different scales (starting from an analysis of the specific sectors of the Catalan economy as an Autonomous Community and scaling up to an intra-regional (European Union 14) comparison) and across different dimensions of analyses of energy consumption coupled with added value generation. Within the scope of this study, we observe the various trajectories of changes in the metabolic pattern for Catalonia and the EU14 countries in the Paid Work Sectors composed of namely, the Agricultural Sector, the Productive Sector and the Services and Government Sector also in comparison with the changes in the household sector. The flow intensities of the exosomatic energy and the added value generated for each specific sector are defined per hour of human activity, thus characterized as exosomatic energy (MJ/hour) (or Exosomatic Metabolic Rate) and added value (€/hour) (Economic Labour Productivity) across multiple levels. Within the second part of the document, the possible usage of the MuSIASEM approach to land use analyses (using a multi-level matrix of categories of land use) has been conducted.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

Reduction of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion rate by statins.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the effect of statins on the annual expansion rate (ER) of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients under regular surveillance for small AAA between January 2000 and September 2007, in the Department of Angiology, Lausanne University Hospital, were included. Inclusion criteria were baseline abdominal aortic diameter between 25 and 55 mm, at least two measurements of AAA diameter and a minimum follow up of 6 months. Patients with Marfan disease, infectious or inflammatory AAA, and patients with prior AAA repair were excluded. The influence of statin use and other factors on ER were examined by bivariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Among 589 patients who underwent an abdominal aorta evaluation, 94 patients (89 % men, mean age 69.1 years) were finally included in the analysis. Baseline AAA size was 39.9 ± 7.7 mm (mean±SE) and 48.7 ± 8.4 mm at end of follow-up. Patients had a regular aneurysm size assessment during 38.5 ± 27.7 months. Mean ER was 3.59 mm/y (± 2.81). The 50 patients who were treated with statin during the study period had a lower ER compared to the 44 controls (2.91 vs 4.37 mm/year, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the considerable individual variations in the AAA expansion rate, and emphasizes the need for regular aortic diameter assessments. In this study, patients treated with statin demonstrate a significant decrease in the ER compared to controls. This finding need to be evaluated in prospective interventional studies powered to demonstrate the potential benefit of statin treatment.

Stochastic demography and the neutral substitution rate in class-structured populations.

The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.

Pregnancy-related changes in activity energy expenditure and resting metabolic rate in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To measure resting metabolic rate (RMR), activity energy expenditure (AEE), total energy expenditure (TEE) and physical activity pattern, that is, duration and intensity (in metabolic equivalents, METs) of activities performed in late pregnancy compared with postpartum in healthy, well-nourished women living in Switzerland. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Weight, height, RMR, AEE, TEE and physical activity patterns were measured longitudinally in 27 healthy women aged 23-40 years at 38.2+/-1.5 weeks of gestation and 40.0+/-7.2 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: The RMR during late pregnancy was 7480 kJ per day, that is, 1320+/-760 kJ per day (21.4%) higher than the postpartum RMR (P<0.001). Absolute changes in RMR were positively correlated with the corresponding changes in body weight (r=0.61, P<0.001). RMR per kg body weight was similar in late pregnancy vs postpartum (P=0.28). AEE per kg during pregnancy and postpartum was 40+/-13 and 50+/-20 kJ/kg, respectively (P=0.001). There were significant differences in daily time spent at METs<1.5 (1067 vs 998 min, P=0.045), at 2.5< or =METs <3.0 (58 vs 82 min, P=0.002) and METs> or =6 (1 vs 6 min, P=0.014) during pregnancy and postpartum, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Energy expenditure in healthy women living in Switzerland increases in pregnancy compared with the postpartum state. Additional energy expenditure is primarily attributed to an increase in RMR, which is partly compensated by a decrease in AEE. The decrease in physical activity-related energy costs is achieved by selecting less demanding activities and should be taken into account when defining extra energy requirements for late pregnancy in Switzerland.

Caffeine consumption attenuates neurochemical modifications in the hippocampus of streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats.

Type 1 diabetes can affect hippocampal function triggering cognitive impairment through unknown mechanisms. Caffeine consumption prevents hippocampal degeneration and memory dysfunction upon different insults and is also known to affect peripheral glucose metabolism. Thus we now characterized glucose transport and the neurochemical profile in the hippocampus of streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats using in vivo(1)H NMR spectroscopy and tested the effect of caffeine consumption thereupon. We found that hippocampal glucose content and transport were unaltered in diabetic rats, irrespective of caffeine consumption. However diabetic rats displayed alterations in their hippocampal neurochemical profile, which were normalized upon restoration of normoglycaemia, with the exception of myo-inositol that remained increased (36 +/- 5%, p < 0.01 compared to controls) likely reflecting osmolarity deregulation. Compared to controls, caffeine-consuming diabetic rats displayed increased hippocampal levels of myo-inositol (15 +/- 5%, p < 0.05) and taurine (23 +/- 4%, p < 0.01), supporting the ability of caffeine to control osmoregulation. Compared to controls, the hippocampus of diabetic rats displayed a reduced density of synaptic proteins syntaxin, synaptophysin and synaptosome-associated protein of 25 kDa (in average 18 +/- 1%, p < 0.05) as well increased glial fibrillary acidic protein (20 +/- 5%, p < 0.05), suggesting synaptic degeneration and astrogliosis, which were prevented by caffeine consumption. In conclusion, neurochemical alterations in the hippocampus of diabetic rats are not related to defects of glucose transport but likely reflect osmoregulatory adaptations caused by hyperglycemia. Furthermore, caffeine consumption affected this neurochemical adaptation to high glucose levels, which may contribute to its potential neuroprotective effects, namely preventing synaptic degeneration and astrogliosis.

The effect of subminimal inhibitory concentrations of penicillin on growth rate and haemolysin activity of group G Streptococcus

The influence of the subminimal inhibitory concentrations (1/3 and 1/4 of the MIC) of penicillin on growth rate and on haemolysin production of a strain of group G Streptococcus was studied. It was shown that 1/3 of the MIC almost completely inhibited the bacterial growth, but it was not able to inhibit haemolysin activity in the culture supernate. The generation time of bacteria grown in 1/4 of the MIC was approximately twice longer than that of the control culture. In all cultures, the haemolysin, after being produced (or liberated), reached a peak and decreased to low levels, which could suggest that group G Streptococcus produces some end products of metabolism that are able to inhibit haemolysin activity.

Moderate amounts of fructose consumption impair insulin sensitivity in healthy young men: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Adverse effects of hypercaloric, high-fructose diets on insulin sensitivity and lipids in human subjects have been shown repeatedly. The implications of fructose in amounts close to usual daily consumption, however, have not been well studied. This study assessed the effect of moderate amounts of fructose and sucrose compared with glucose on glucose and lipid metabolism. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Nine healthy, normal-weight male volunteers (aged 21-25 years) were studied in this double-blind, randomized, cross-over trial. All subjects consumed four different sweetened beverages (600 mL/day) for 3 weeks each: medium fructose (MF) at 40 g/day, and high fructose (HF), high glucose (HG), and high sucrose (HS) each at 80 g/day. Euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamps with [6,6]-(2)H(2) glucose labeling were used to measure endogenous glucose production. Lipid profile, glucose, and insulin were measured in fasting samples. RESULTS: Hepatic suppression of glucose production during the clamp was significantly lower after HF (59.4 ± 11.0%) than HG (70.3 ± 10.5%, P < 0.05), whereas fasting glucose, insulin, and C-peptide did not differ between the interventions. Compared with HG, LDL cholesterol and total cholesterol were significantly higher after MF, HF, and HS, and free fatty acids were significantly increased after MF, but not after the two other interventions (P < 0.05). Subjects' energy intake during the interventions did not differ significantly from baseline intake. CONCLUSIONS: This study clearly shows that moderate amounts of fructose and sucrose significantly alter hepatic insulin sensitivity and lipid metabolism compared with similar amounts of glucose.