If factor shares are not constant then we have a measurment problem. can we solve it?

Recent evidence show that factor shares, if properly measured, are far from constant. Moreover, the shares of natural resources and raw labor seem to be negatively correlated with income per capita while the share of human and physical capital is positively correlated with income per capita. Now, if factor shares are not constant then (i) growth accounting exercises rely on a false assumption and (ii) there is a measurement problem. The effect that change s in factor shares ha ve on output depend on the relative abundance of factors and, fo r this reason, it is necessary to have correct measures. We propose an empiri cal methodology to solve the measurement issue and estimate TFP growth.

Maturidade de plataformas SOA Open Source vs proprietários

O bom funcionamento de uma empresa passa pela coordenação dos seus vários elementos, pela fluidez das suas operações diárias, pelo desempenho dos seus recursos, tanto humanos como materiais, e da interacção dos vários sistemas que a compõem. As tecnologias empresariais sentiram um desenvolvimento contínuo após a sua aparição, desde o processo básico, para gestão de processos de negócios (BPM), para plataformas de recursos empresariais (ERP) modernos como o sistema proprietário SAP ou Oracle, para conceitos mais gerais como SOA e cloud, baseados em standards abertos. As novas tecnologias apresentam novos canais de trânsito de informação mais rápidos e eficientes, formas de automatizar e acompanhar processos de negócio e vários tipos de infra-estruturas que podem ser utilizadas de forma a tornar a empresa mais produtiva e flexível. As soluções comerciais existentes permitem realizar estes objectivos mas os seus custos de aquisição podem revelar-se demasiado elevados para algumas empresas ou organizações, que arriscam de não se adaptar às mudanças do negócio. Ao mesmo tempo, software livre está a ganhar popularidade mas existem sempre alguns preconceitos sobre a qualidade e maturidade deste tipo de software. O objectivo deste trabalho é apresentar SOA, os principais produtos SOA comerciais e open source e realizar uma comparação entre as duas categorias para verificar o nível de maturidade do SOA open source em relação às soluções SOA proprietárias.

Operations on Risk Variables

In the article the author considers and analyzes operations and functions on risk variables. She takes into account the following variables: the sum of risk variables, its product, multiplication by a constant, division, maximum, minimum and median of a sum of random variables. She receives the formulas for probability distribution and basic distribution parameters. She conducts the analysis for dependent and independent random variables. She propose the examples of the situations in the economy and production management of risk modelled by this operations. The analysis is conducted with the way of mathematical proving. Some of the formulas presented are taken from the literature but others are the permanent results of the author.

Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modelling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modeling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

Action following the discovery of a global association between the whole genome and adverse event risk in a clinical drug-development programme

Observation of adverse drug reactions during drug development can cause closure of the whole programme. However, if association between the genotype and the risk of an adverse event is discovered, then it might suffice to exclude patients of certain genotypes from future recruitment. Various sequential and non-sequential procedures are available to identify an association between the whole genome, or at least a portion of it, and the incidence of adverse events. In this paper we start with a suspected association between the genotype and the risk of an adverse event and suppose that the genetic subgroups with elevated risk can be identified. Our focus is determination of whether the patients identified as being at risk should be excluded from further studies of the drug. We propose using a utility function to? determine the appropriate action, taking into account the relative costs of suffering an adverse reaction and of failing to alleviate the patient's disease. Two illustrative examples are presented, one comparing patients who suffer from an adverse event with contemporary patients who do not, and the other making use of a reference control group. We also illustrate two classification methods, LASSO and CART, for identifying patients at risk, but we stress that any appropriate classification method could be used in conjunction with the proposed utility function. Our emphasis is on determining the action to take rather than on providing definitive evidence of an association. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studies

Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally Occurring radon gas. Design: Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting Nine European countries. Subjects 7148 cases Of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures: Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic incite (Bq/m(3)) Of household air. Results: The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in tire control group was 97 Bq/m(3), with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m(3). For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m(3). The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in measured radon (P = 0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in usual radon-that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P=0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m(3). The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m(3) would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe.

A temperature-dependent relative-rate study of the OH initiated oxidation of n-butane: the kinetics of the reactions of the 1-and 2-butoxy radicals

The kinetics of the reactions of 1-and 2-butoxy radicals have been studied using a slow-flow photochemical reactor with GC-FID detection of reactants and products. Branching ratios between decomposition, CH3CH(O-.)CH2CH3 CH3CHO + C2H5, reaction (7), and reaction with oxygen, CH3CH(O-.)CH2CH3 + O-2 -> CH3C(O)C2H5 + HO2, reaction (6), for the 2-butoxy radical and between isomerization, CH3CH2CH2CH2O. -> CH2CH2CH2CH2OH, reaction (9), and reaction with oxygen, CH3CH2CH2CH2O. + O-2 -> C3H7CHO + HO2, reaction (8), for the 1-butoxy radical were measured as a function of oxygen concentration at atmospheric pressure over the temperature range 250-318 K. Evidence for the formation of a small fraction of chemically activated alkoxy radicals generated from the photolysis of alkyl nitrite precursors and from the exothermic reaction of 2-butyl peroxy radicals with NO was observed. The temperature dependence of the rate constant ratios for a thermalized system is given by k(7)/k(6) = 5.4 x 1026 exp[(-47.4 +/- 2.8 kJ mol(-1))/RT] molecule cm(-3) and k(9)/k(8) = 1.98 x 10(23) exp[(-22.6 +/- 3.9 kJ mol(-1))/RT] molecule cm(-3). The results agree well with the available experimental literature data at ambient temperature but the temperature dependence of the rate constant ratios is weaker than in current recommendations.

An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.

Effects of dietary fat modification on insulin sensitivity and on other risk factors of the metabolic syndrome—LIPGENE: a European randomized dietary intervention study

Background:Excessive energy intake and obesity lead to the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) may be particularly detrimental on insulin sensitivity (SI) and on other components of the MetS. Objective:This study determined the relative efficacy of reducing dietary SFA, by isoenergetic alteration of the quality and quantity of dietary fat, on risk factors associated with MetS. Design:A free-living, single-blinded dietary intervention study. Subjects and Methods:MetS subjects (n=417) from eight European countries completed the randomized dietary intervention study with four isoenergetic diets distinct in fat quantity and quality: high-SFA; high-monounsaturated fatty acids and two low-fat, high-complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diets, supplemented with long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFAs) (1.2 g per day) or placebo for 12 weeks. SI estimated from an intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) was the primary outcome measure. Lipid and inflammatory markers associated with MetS were also determined. Results:In weight-stable subjects, reducing dietary SFA intake had no effect on SI, total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, inflammation or blood pressure in the entire cohort. The LFHCC n-3 PUFA diet reduced plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) and non-esterified fatty acid concentrations (P<0.01), particularly in men. Conclusion:There was no effect of reducing SFA on SI in weight-stable obese MetS subjects. LC n-3 PUFA supplementation, in association with a low-fat diet, improved TAG-related MetS risk profiles.

Millimeter-wave measurements of the complex dielectric constant of an advanced thick film UV photoresist

The first measurement of the relative permittivity (εr) and loss tangent (tan δ) of EPON™ SU-8 advanced thick film ultraviolet photoresist is reported at frequencies between 75–110 GHz (W-band). The problems associated with such a measurement are discussed, an error analysis given, and values of εr=1.725±0.08 and tanδ =0.02±0.001 are determined.

The relative importance sector and regional factors in Italy

The benefits of sector and regional diversification have been well documented in the literature but have not previously been investigated in Italy. In addition, previous studies have used geographically defined regions, rather than economically functional areas, when performing the analysis even though most would argue that it is the economic structure of the area that will lead to differences in demand and hence property performance. This study therefore uses economically defined regions of Italy to test the relative benefits of regional diversification versus sector diversification within the Italian real estate portfolio. To examine this issue we use constrained cross-section regressions the on the sector and regional affiliation of 14 cities in Italy to extract the “pure” return effects of the different factors using annual data over the period 1989 to 2003. In contrast, to previous studies we find that regional factors effects in Italy have a much greater influence on property returns than sector-specific effects, which is probably a direct result of using the extremely diverse economic regions of Italy rather than arbitrary geographically locations. Be that as it may, the results strongly suggest that that diversification across the regions of Italy used here is likely to offer larger risk reduction benefits than a sector diversification strategy within a region. In other words, fund managers in Italy must monitor the regional composition of their portfolios more closely than its sector allocation. Additionally, the results supports that contemporary position that ‘regional areas’ based on economic function, provide greater diversification benefits rather than areas defined by geographical location.

Volatility forecasting for risk management

Recent research has suggested that forecast evaluation on the basis of standard statistical loss functions could prefer models which are sub-optimal when used in a practical setting. This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily volatility of several key UK financial time series. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear and GARCH-type models of volatility are compared with forecasts derived from a multivariate approach. The forecasts are evaluated using traditional metrics, such as mean squared error, and also by how adequately they perform in a modern risk management setting. We find that the relative accuracies of the various methods are highly sensitive to the measure used to evaluate them. Such results have implications for any econometric time series forecasts which are subsequently employed in financial decisionmaking.

Changes in the relative importance of sector and regional factors: 1987-2002

A stylised fact in the real estate portfolio diversification literature is that sector (property-type) effects are relatively more important than regional (geographical) factors in determining property returns. Thus, for those portfolio managers who follow a top-down approach to portfolio management, they should first choose in which sectors to invest and then select the best properties in each market. However, the question arises as to whether the dominance of the sector effects relative to regional effects is constant. If not property fund managers will need to take account of regional effects in developing their portfolio strategy. Using monthly data over the period 1987:1 to 2002:12 for a sample of over 1000 properties the results show that the sector-specific factors dominate the regional-specific factors for the vast majority of the time. Nonetheless, there are periods when the regional factors are of equal or greater importance than the sector effects. In particular, the sector effects tend to dominate during volatile periods of the real estate cycle; however, during calmer periods the sector and regional effects are of equal importance. These findings suggest that the sector effects are still the most important aspect in the development of an active portfolio strategy.