A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

A calibration approach based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference system for digital electronic compasses

Recently, the development of industrial processes brought on the outbreak of technologically complex systems. This development generated the necessity of research relative to the mathematical techniques that have the capacity to deal with project complexities and validation. Fuzzy models have been receiving particular attention in the area of nonlinear systems identification and analysis due to it is capacity to approximate nonlinear behavior and deal with uncertainty. A fuzzy rule-based model suitable for the approximation of many systems and functions is the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. IS fuzzy models are nonlinear systems described by a set of if then rules which gives local linear representations of an underlying system. Such models can approximate a wide class of nonlinear systems. In this paper a performance analysis of a system based on IS fuzzy inference system for the calibration of electronic compass devices is considered. The contribution of the evaluated IS fuzzy inference system is to reduce the error obtained in data acquisition from a digital electronic compass. For the reliable operation of the TS fuzzy inference system, adequate error measurements must be taken. The error noise must be filtered before the application of the IS fuzzy inference system. The proposed method demonstrated an effectiveness of 57% at reducing the total error based on considered tests. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new approach to heart valve tissue engineering: mimicking the heart ventricle with a ventricular assist device in a novel bioreactor

The `biomimetic` approach to tissue engineering usually involves the use of a bioreactor mimicking physiological parameters whilst supplying nutrients to the developing tissue. Here we present a new heart valve bioreactor, having as its centrepiece a ventricular assist device (VAD), which exposes the cell-scaffold constructs to a wider array of mechanical forces. The pump of the VAD has two chambers: a blood and a pneumatic chamber, separated by an elastic membrane. Pulsatile air-pressure is generated by a piston-type actuator and delivered to the pneumatic chamber, ejecting the fluid in the blood chamber. Subsequently, applied vacuum to the pneumatic chamber causes the blood chamber to fill. A mechanical heart valve was placed in the VAD`s inflow position. The tissue engineered (TE) valve was placed in the outflow position. The VAD was coupled in series with a Windkessel compliance chamber, variable throttle and reservoir, connected by silicone tubings. The reservoir sat on an elevated platform, allowing adjustment of ventricular preload between 0 and 11 mmHg. To allow for sterile gaseous exchange between the circuit interior and exterior, a 0.2 mu m filter was placed at the reservoir. Pressure and flow were registered downstream of the TE valve. The circuit was filled with culture medium and fitted in a standard 5% CO(2) incubator set at 37 degrees C. Pressure and flow waveforms were similar to those obtained under physiological conditions for the pulmonary circulation. The `cardiomimetic` approach presented here represents a new perspective to conventional biomimetic approaches in TE, with potential advantages. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tax Cost of Investment Projects: the case of ICMS credits

This article discusses the impact on the profitability of firms under Complementary Law 102/2000 (which abrogated the Law 89/96 - Kandir Law) allowing the appropriation of ICMS credits, due to investment in fixed assets goods, at a ratio of 1/48 per month. The paper seeks to demonstrate how this new system - which resulted in the transformation of the ICMS as a value added tax (VAT) consumption-type to an income-type - leads to a loss of approximately 30% of the value of credits to be recovered and the effect it generates on the cost of investment and the profits for small, medium and large firms. From the methodological point of view, it is a descriptive and quantitative research, which proceeded in three stages. Initially, we have obtained estimated value of net sales and volume of investments, based on report Painel de Competitividade prepared by the Federacao das Indtustrias do Estado de Sao Paulo (Fiesp/Serasa). Based on this information, it was possible to obtain estimates of the factors of generation of debits and credits for ICMS, using the model Credit Control of Fixed Assets (CIAP). Finally, we have calculated three indicators: (i) present value of debt recovery/value of credits, (ii) present value of debt recovery / investment value, (iii) present value of debt recovery / sales profitability. We have conclude that the system introduced by Complementary Law 102/2000 implicates great opportunity cost for firms and that legislation should be reviewed from this perspective, aiming to ensure lower costs associated with investment projects.

The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic positioning systems: An experimental analysis of sliding mode control

Vessel dynamic positioning (DP) systems are based on conventional PID-type controllers and an extended Kalman filter. However, they present a difficult tuning procedure, and the closed-loop performance varies with environmental or loading conditions since the dynamics of the vessel are eminently nonlinear. Gain scheduling is normally used to address the nonlinearity of the system. To overcome these problems, a sliding mode control was evaluated. This controller is robust to variations in environmental and loading conditions, it maintains performance and stability for a large range of conditions, and presents an easy tuning methodology. The performance of the controller was evaluated numerically and experimentally in order to address its effectiveness. The results are compared with those obtained from conventional PID controller. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and measuring double-frequency jitter in one-way master-slave networks

The double-frequency jitter is one of the main problems in clock distribution networks. In previous works, sonic analytical and numerical aspects of this phenomenon were studied and results were obtained for one-way master-slave (OWMS) architectures. Here, an experimental apparatus is implemented, allowing to measure the power of the double-frequency signal and to confirm the theoretical conjectures. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stress cracking and photodegradation behavior of polycarbonate. The combination of two major causes of polymer failure

This work investigates the effects of photodegradation on the environmental stress cracking resistance of polycarbonate (PC). Injection molded samples were exposed to the ultraviolet (UV) light for various times in the laboratory prior to solvent contact. The bars were then stressed with two different loads in a tensile testing machine under the presence of ethanol. During this period, the stress relaxation was monitored and, after unloading, the ultimate properties were evaluated. Complementary tests were done by size exclusion chromatography, UV-visible spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and light microscopy. The results indicated that ethanol causes significant modification in PC, with extensive surface crazing as well as reduction in mechanical properties. The previous degraded samples showed a higher level of stress relaxation and a greater loss in tensile strength in comparison with the undegraded ones. The synergist action of photodegradation and stress cracking in PC may be a consequence of the chemical changes caused by oxidation.

Herbicide distribution in soils of a riparian forest and neighboring sugar cane field

Riparian forests are protected by Brazilian law to preserve rivers and their margins. A sugar cane field adjacent to a strip of young riparian forest bordering an older riparian forest along a stream was used to study the riparian forest as a buffer zone to prevent pesticides pollution. Concentrations of the herbicides diuron, hexazinone and tebuthiuron were determined in different soil layers of a Red Yellow Oxisol during 2003 and 2004. The determination was done by High Performance Liquid Chromatography with reverse phase C-18 column, through two mobile phases. Diuron and hexazinone concentration diminished between the sugar cane and riparian forest as buffer strip demonstrating a protective effect. However, tebuthiuron had about four times higher concentrations in the old riparian forest compared to the other areas. Concentrations were higher in the surface and decreased in deeper soil layers in the old riparian forest suggesting that this herbicide probably was introduced by air pollution. This pesticide concentrated in the canopy could be washed by rain to the soil adjacent to the stream. Our data suggest that climate conditions were responsible for enhanced volatilization exposing the old riparian forest to more air pollution that was captured by the higher canopy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two species of Neocypholaelaps from Sri Lanka (Acari: Ameroseiidae), with description of a new species

Two species of Neocypholaelaps Vitzthum are reported from Sri Lanka. One of them, Neocypholaelaps ceylonicus Narita & Moraes, n. sp., is described based on adult females. The other, Neocypholaelaps ampullula (Berlese), originally described from Indonesia, is reported for the first time in Sri Lanka. Complementary morphological information about this species is provided based on the specimens collected in this study. A discussion is presented about the spermathecal apparatus of Neocypholaelaps species.

Phytoseiid mites (Acari: Phytoseiidae) of the Dominican Republic, with a re-definition of the genus Typhloseiopsis De Leon

The phytoseiid mites of the Dominican Republic are virtually unknown. In a survey conducted in areas of natural vegetation of that country, 23 species were collected, two of which, Phytoseius dominicensis Ferragut & Moraes sp. nov. and Typhloseiopsis adventitius Ferragut & Moraes sp. nov., are new to science. We report the species found in that survey, describe the two new species, and provide complementary morphological information about other species. To accommodate the new Typhloseiopsis De Leon species, a redefinition of Typhloseiopsis is proposed. A key for the separation of the species in this genus is provided.

Spatial pattern of black spot incidence within citrus trees related to disease severity and pathogen dispersal

Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.

Can native vegetation recover after slash pine cultivation in the Brazilian Savanna?

There is a widespread view that forest plantations with exotic species are green deserts, unable to sustain biodiversity. Few studies have demonstrated, however, that planted stands of exotic trees have a greater negative effect on the plant diversity of savanna vegetation. We compared the native woody flora under four stands of slash pine of about 45 years old with four stands where the previously existing native Cerrado vegetation was preserved and protected from disturbances for the same period, has changed into dense vegetation - the ""cerradao"", at Assis municipality, Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Aiming at understanding the potential ecological filters driving these communities, we assessed air and soil humidity, light availability and classified the native species on the basis of shade tolerance, dispersal syndrome and biomes in which they occur (Atlantic Forest or Cerrado). We recorded an average of 70 (+/- 13) species under pine stands and 54 (+/- 16) species in cerradao. Of the total of 136 species recorded, 78 occurred in both habitats, eight were exclusive to the ""cerradao"" (shade tolerant and also occurring in forest ecosystems) and 18 were recorded only under pine stands (82% heliophytic, exclusive to the Cerrado biome). Among the functional attributes and abiotic variables analyzed, only light availability explained the floristic differences found. Since richness was higher under pine, we refuted the hypothesis that exotic species constrain the establishment of the native species richness in the understory. On the other hand, the dark environment under the closed-canopy of the ""cerradao"" acts as a filter inhibiting the establishment of typical Cerrado species. Since pine stands, if managed in long cycle, maintain a reasonable pool of Cerrado endemic species in the understory pine plantations may be a good starting point for savanna restoration. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The introduction of the Salmonella/microsome mutagenicity assay in a groundwater monitoring program

The objective of this study was to verify the possible inclusion of the Salmonella/microsome mutagenicity assay in a groundwater monitoring program as a complementary assay to assess water quality. Groundwater samples belonging to seven wells from different types of aquifers were analyzed. Three different methods for sample preparation were used: membrane filtration; liquid-liquid and XAD-4 extraction. The filtered samples were tested using TA98, TA100, YG1041 and YG1042 and the water extracts only with TA98 and TA100. No mutagenic activity was observed in any of the 16 filtered samples tested. Out of the 10 samples analyzed using XAD-4 extraction, five showed mutagenic activity with potency ranging from 130 to 1500 revertants/L. Concerning the liquid-liquid extraction, from the 11 samples analyzed, 3 showed mutagenicity. The XAD-4 extraction was the most suitable sample preparation. TA98 without S9 was found to be the most sensitive testing condition. The wells presenting water samples with mutagenic activity belonged to unconfined aquifers, which are more vulnerable to contamination. The data suggest that Salmonella/microsome assay can be used as an efficient screening tool to monitor groundwater for mutagenic activity. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inhibitory effects of Solidago chilensis Meyen hydroalcoholic extract on acute inflammation

Aim of the study: Alcoholic or hydroalcoholic preparations of the plant Solidago chilensis Meyen (Asteraceae) are employed in popular medicines to treat inflammation. The anti-inflammatory effects of the hydroalcoholic extract of aerial parts of the plant (93% ethanol) were investigated and the main components of the extract were identified. Materials and methods: Ear oedema was induced in male Wistar rats by topical application of the chloroform fraction of latex-extract from Euphorbia milii. Leukocyte mobilisation was quantified after air-pouch inflammation evoked by oyster glycogen. Leukocyte-endothelial interactions and mast cell degranulation were quantified by intravital microscopy. The extract itself was characterised via HPLC-DAD-MS and HPLC-MS/MS. Results: Topical (12.5-50 mg/kg) or intraperitoneal (25 or 50 mg/kg) administrations of the extract reduced ear oedema formation (>25% reduction). Intraperitoneal applications of 25 mg/kg of extract inhibited the migration of polymorphonuclear cells into the inflamed cavity (about 50%). In addition, the rolling behaviour and adherence of circulating leukocytes to postcapillary venules of the mesentery network was diminished (50%), but the mast cell degranulation in the perivascular area was not affected. The major components of the extract were identified as caffeoylquinic acid derivatives and the flavonoid rutin. Conclusions: The data presented herein show local and systemic anti-inflammatory effects of the hydroalcoholic extract of aerial parts of Solidago chilensis, and implicate the inhibition of leukocyte-endothelial interactions as an important mechanism of the extract`s action. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.