Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Status epilepticus in fragile X syndrome.

Epilepsy is frequent in fragile X syndrome (FXS), the most common cause of inherited mental retardation. Status epilepticus (SE), however, seems exceptional in FXS, particularly as an initial epileptic manifestation. To our knowledge, SE was reported in only four FXS patients. We report the clinical features and electroencephalography (EEG) findings of five children with FXS, who presented with SE as their initial seizure.

Innovation, R&D spillovers and productivity: the role of knowledge-intensive services

This paper analyses the performance of companies’ R&D and innovation and the effects of intra- and inter-industry R&D spillover on firms’ productivity in Catalonia. The paper deals simultaneously with the performance of manufacturing and service firms, with the aim of highlighting the growing role of knowledge-intensive services in promoting innovation and productivity gains. We find that intra-industry R&D spillovers have an important effect on the productivity level of manufacturing firms, and the inter-industrial R&D spillovers related to computer and software services also play an important role, especially in high-tech manufacturing industries. The main conclusion is that the traditional classification of manufactured goods and services no longer makes sense in the ‘knowledge economy’ and in Catalonia the regional policy makers will have to design policies that favour inter-industrial R&D flows, especially from high-tech services.

Controversies about a common etiology for eating and mood disorders.

Obesity and depression represent a growing health concern worldwide. For many years, basic science and medicine have considered obesity as a metabolic illness, while depression was classified a psychiatric disorder. Despite accumulating evidence suggesting that obesity and depression may share commonalities, the causal link between eating and mood disorders remains to be fully understood. This etiology is highly complex, consisting of multiple environmental and genetic risk factors that interact with each other. In this review, we sought to summarize the preclinical and clinical evidence supporting a common etiology for eating and mood disorders, with a particular emphasis on signaling pathways involved in the maintenance of energy balance and mood stability, among which orexigenic and anorexigenic neuropeptides, metabolic factors, stress responsive hormones, cytokines, and neurotrophic factors.

Common and Idiosyncratic Factors of the Exchange Risk Premium in Emerging European Markets

Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel data set of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country-specific) elements and a common factor using a principal components approach. We present evidence of a stationary idiosyncratic component and nonstationary common factor. This result leads to the conclusion of a nonstationary risk premium for these countries and a violation of the UIRP in the long-run, which is in contrast to previous studies often documenting a stationary premium in developed countries. Furthermore, we report that the variation in the premium is largely attributable to a common factor influenced by economic developments in the United States.

Angiotensinergic innervation of the kidney: present knowledge and its significance.

Intrarenal neurotransmission implies the co-release of neuropeptides at the neuro-effector junction with direct influence on parameters of kidney function. The presence of an angiotensin (Ang) II-containing phenotype in catecholaminergic postganglionic and sensory fibers of the kidney, based on immunocytological investigations, has only recently been reported. These angiotensinergic fibers display a distinct morphology and intrarenal distribution, suggesting anatomical and functional subspecialization linked to neuronal Ang II-expression. This review discusses the present knowledge concerning these fibers, and their significance for renal physiology and the pathogenesis of hypertension in light of established mechanisms. The data suggest a new role of Ang II as a co-transmitter stimulating renal target cells or modulating nerve traffic from or to the kidney. Neuronal Ang II is likely to be an independent source of intrarenal Ang II. Further physiological experimentation will have to explore the role of the angiotensinergic renal innervation and integrate it into existing concepts.

The Impact of Higher Education Institution-Firm Knowledge Links on Firm-level Productivity in Britain

This paper estimates whether both sourcing knowledge from and/or cooperating on innovation with HEIs (Higher Education Institutions)1 impacts on establishment-level total factor productivity (TFP) using a dataset created by merging the UK government’s Community Innovation Survey (CIS) with the Annual Respondents Database (ARD). It also considers whether higher graduate employment (as a measure of human capital) also impacts positively on TFP at the establishment-level. Many studies have investigated the relationship between university-firm knowledge links and innovation (see, for example, Mansfield, 1991; Becker, 2003; Thorn et al, 2007). Most of these studies find a positive impact. Fewer studies have investigated the impact of university-firm knowledge links on productivity. Belderbos et al. (2004), using the Dutch CIS, find that cooperation with universities has no statistically significant impact on the growth of labour productivity. Medda et al. (2005) find no statistically significant effect of collaborative research undertaken by Italian manufacturing firms and universities on the growth of TFP. Arvanitis et al. (2008), using Swiss data, show that university-firm knowledge and technology transfer has both a direct impact on labour productivity and an indirect impact through its positive impact on innovation. In sum, there is as yet no clear consensus as to the impact of university-firm knowledge links on productivity.

Which prior knowledge? Quantification of in vivo brain 13C MR spectra following 13C glucose infusion using AMARES.

The recent developments in high magnetic field 13C magnetic resonance spectroscopy with improved localization and shimming techniques have led to important gains in sensitivity and spectral resolution of 13C in vivo spectra in the rodent brain, enabling the separation of several 13C isotopomers of glutamate and glutamine. In this context, the assumptions used in spectral quantification might have a significant impact on the determination of the 13C concentrations and the related metabolic fluxes. In this study, the time domain spectral quantification algorithm AMARES (advanced method for accurate, robust and efficient spectral fitting) was applied to 13 C magnetic resonance spectroscopy spectra acquired in the rat brain at 9.4 T, following infusion of [1,6-(13)C2 ] glucose. Using both Monte Carlo simulations and in vivo data, the goal of this work was: (1) to validate the quantification of in vivo 13C isotopomers using AMARES; (2) to assess the impact of the prior knowledge on the quantification of in vivo 13C isotopomers using AMARES; (3) to compare AMARES and LCModel (linear combination of model spectra) for the quantification of in vivo 13C spectra. AMARES led to accurate and reliable 13C spectral quantification similar to those obtained using LCModel, when the frequency shifts, J-coupling constants and phase patterns of the different 13C isotopomers were included as prior knowledge in the analysis.

Non-cooperative incentives to share knowledge in competitive environments

In this paper we study a model where non-cooperative agents may exchange knowledge in a competitive environment. As a potential factor that could induce the knowledge disclosure between humans we consider the timing of the moves of players. We develop a simple model of a multistage game in which there are only three players and competition takes place only within two stages. Players can share their private knowledge with their opponents and the knowledge is modelled as in uencing their marginal cost of e¤ort. We identify two main mechanisms that work towards knowledge disclosure. One of them is that before the actual competition starts, the stronger player of the rst stage of a game may have desire to share his knowledge with the "observer", be- cause this reduces the valuation of the prize of the weaker player of that stage and as a result his e¤ort level and probability of winning in a ght. Another mechanism is that the "observer" may have sometimes desire to share knowledge with the weaker player of the rst stage, because in this way, by increasing his probability of winning in that stage, he decreases the probability of winning of the stronger player. As a result, in the second stage the "observer" may have greater chances to meet the weaker player rather than the stronger one. Keywords: knowledge sharing, strategic knowledge disclosure, multistage contest game, non-cooperative games

Seasonal distribution of a relatively rare and a relatively common species of Thecomyia at Belém, Pará, Brazil (Diptera: Sciomyzidae)

O gênero neotropical Thecomyia (Sciomyzidae) consiste de quatro espécies descritas e onze ainda não descritas (Steyskal & Knutson em preparação), sendo a maioria não muito comum. As espécies são muito próximas e grande número delas somente pode ser separado com base na genitália do macho. Somente é conhecida a biologia e uma espécie, T. limbata (Wiedermann), que, preferentemente, preda moluscos aquáticos (Abercrombie & Berg, 1975). A análise de registros de coletas de espécies relativamente raras e relativamente comuns de Thecomyia (172 especimens do Museu Goeldi coletados em Mocambo, Belém, Pará, Brasil) proporcionam informações sobre a distribuição sazonal de espécies tropicais e sua relativa abundância. Deste material 160 especimens pertencem à T. longicornis Perty e 12 à Thecomyia sp. n. A primeira foi registrada durante todos os meses do ano, mas a espécie nova somente durante junho e dezembro, sugerindo esta última uma população de adultos anual bimodal.

Time-consistent fiscal policy under heterogeneity: Conflicting or common interests?

This paper studies the aggregate and distributional implications of Markov-perfect tax-spending policy in a neoclassical growth model with capitalists and workers. Focusing on the long run, our main fi ndings are: (i) it is optimal for a benevolent government, which cares equally about its citizens, to tax capital heavily and to subsidise labour; (ii) a Pareto improving means to reduce ine¢ ciently high capital taxation under discretion is for the government to place greater weight on the welfare of capitalists; (iii) capitalists and workers preferences, regarding the optimal amount of "capitalist bias", are not aligned implying a conflict of interests.

The Monetary policy rules in Europe: heterogeneity and common patters

The objective of this study is the empirical identification of the monetary policy rules pursued in individual countries of EU before and after the launch of European Monetary Union. In particular, we have employed an estimation of the augmented version of the Taylor rule (TR) for 25 countries of the EU in two periods (1992-1998, 1999-2006). While uniequational estimation methods have been used to identify the policy rules of individual central banks, for the rule of the European Central Bank has been employed a dynamic panel setting. We have found that most central banks really followed some interest rate rule but its form was usually different from the original TR (proposing that domestic interest rate responds only to domestic inflation rate and output gap). Crucial features of policy rules in many countries have been the presence of interest rate smoothing as well as response to foreign interest rate. Any response to domestic macroeconomic variables have been missing in the rules of countries with inflexible exchange rate regimes and the rules consisted in mimicking of the foreign interest rates. While we have found response to long-term interest rates and exchange rate in rules of some countries, the importance of monetary growth and asset prices has been generally negligible. The Taylor principle (the response of interest rates to domestic inflation rate must be more than unity as a necessary condition for achieving the price stability) has been confirmed only in large economies and economies troubled with unsustainable inflation rates. Finally, the deviation of the actual interest rate from the rule-implied target rate can be interpreted as policy shocks (these deviation often coincided with actual turbulent periods).

Effects of Experience, Knowledge and Signals on Willingness to Pay for a Public Good

This paper compares how increases in experience versus increases in knowledge about a public good affect willingness to pay (WTP) for its provision. This is challenging because while consumers are often certain about their previous experiences with a good, they may be uncertain about the accuracy of their knowledge. We therefore design and conduct a field experiment in which treated subjects receive a precise and objective signal regarding their knowledge about a public good before estimating their WTP for it. Using data for two different public goods, we show qualitative equivalence of the effect of knowledge and experience on valuation for a public good. Surprisingly, though, we find that the causal effect of objective signals about the accuracy of a subject’s knowledge for a public good can dramatically affect their valuation for it: treatment causes an increase of $150-$200 in WTP for well-informed individuals. We find no such effect for less informed subjects. Our results imply that WTP estimates for public goods are not only a function of true information states of the respondents but beliefs about those information states.