Renewable power forecast to scheduling of thermal units

In this work is discussed the importance of the renewable production forecast in an island environment. A probabilistic forecast based on kernel density estimators is proposed. The aggregation of these forecasts, allows the determination of thermal generation amount needed to schedule and operating a power grid of an island with high penetration of renewable generation. A case study based on electric system of S. Miguel Island is presented. The results show that the forecast techniques are an imperative tool help the grid management.

Difficulties in access and estimates of public beds in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the required number of public beds for adults in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro to meet the existing demand and compare results with recommendations by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS The study uses a hybrid model combining time series and queuing theory to predict the demand and estimate the number of required beds. Four patient flow scenarios were considered according to bed requests, percentage of abandonments and average length of stay in intensive care unit beds. The results were plotted against Ministry of Health parameters. Data were obtained from the State Regulation Center from 2010 to 2011. RESULTS There were 33,101 medical requests for 268 regulated intensive care unit beds in Rio de Janeiro. With an average length of stay in regulated ICUs of 11.3 days, there would be a need for 595 active beds to ensure system stability and 628 beds to ensure a maximum waiting time of six hours. Deducting current abandonment rates due to clinical improvement (25.8%), these figures fall to 441 and 417. With an average length of stay of 6.5 days, the number of required beds would be 342 and 366, respectively; deducting abandonment rates, 254 and 275. The Brazilian Ministry of Health establishes a parameter of 118 to 353 beds. Although the number of regulated beds is within the recommended range, an increase in beds of 122.0% is required to guarantee system stability and of 134.0% for a maximum waiting time of six hours. CONCLUSIONS Adequate bed estimation must consider reasons for limited timely access and patient flow management in a scenario that associates prioritization of requests with the lowest average length of stay.

Reactivity of syringyl and guaiacyl lignin units and delignification kinetics in the kraft pulping of eucalyptus globulus wood using Py-Gc-Ms/FID

Eucalyptus globulus sapwood and heartwood showed no differences in lignin content (23.0% vs. 23.7%) and composition: syringyl-lignin (17.9% vs. 18.0%) and guaiacyl-lignin (4.8% vs. 5.2%). Delignification kinetics of S- and G-units in heartwood and sapwood was investigated by Py-GC–MS/FID at 130, 150 and 170 °C and modeled as double first-order reactions. Reactivity differences between S and G-units were small during the main pulping phase and the higher reactivity of S over G units was better expressed in the later pulping stage. The residual lignin composition in pulps was different from wood or from samples in the initial delignification stages, with more G and H-units. S/G ratio ranged from 3 to 4.5 when pulp residual lignin was higher than 10%, decreasing rapidly to less than 1. The S/H was initially around 20 (until 15% residual lignin), decreasing to 4 when residual lignin was about 3%.

Anti-leishmania igA immunoenzymatic assay in mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (Preliminary report)

The Authors describe an anti-Leishmania IgA-ELISA assay in mucocutaneous leishmaniasis. Increased titers were found in leishmaniasis patients, mainly in the first and second year of infection and in deep mycoses patients showing either mucosal involvement or widespread disease.

An immunohistochemic assay to localize leptospires in tissue specimens

An Immunoperoxidase technique for identification of leptospires in formalin fixed, paraffin embedded kidney sections is presented, using peroxidase-antiperoxidase complex. The anti-leptospiral antibody was raised in rabbit. Possible applications of this technique are discussed.

Location model for CCA-treated - wood waste remediation units

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay: determination of anti-adenovirus antibodies in an infant population

In order to define an accurate assay for anti-adenovirus antibody detection, a recently developed ELISA was compared with IFA and CF. On 58 sera, the ELISA was more sensitive than both CF and IFA, which showed relative sensitivities of 63% and 94%, respectively. It was not possible to determine the exact specificity of the tests because of the lack of a gold standard. Furthermore, the ELISA was used to define the prevalence of adenovirus antibodies in 116 infants between 1 and 24 months old (mean 7.28). The data showed that maternal antibodies waned by the age of 5 to 6 months and that more than 80% of the children had been infected by adenoviruses by the age of 10 months.

Screening the mutagenic activities of coomonly used antiparasite drugs by the Simultest, a simplified Salmonella/microsome plate incorporation assay

The mutagenic activities of 16 anti-parasite drugs were screened by the Simultest in both qualitative (spot test) and quantitative (plate incorporation) assays with a Salmonella typhimurium pool composed by the indicator strains TA97, TA 98, TA100 and TA102. Four anti Chagas' disease drugs (nifurtimox, benznidazole, CL 64,855, and MK 436) and two anti-amebae drugs (metronidazole and tinidazole) gave positive results in qualitative tests and incorporation of rat liver microsomes did not alter the results. Comparative dose response curves of the mutagenic activities of CL 64,855, metronidazole and benznidazole obtained by the simultest and by individual Salmonella indicator strains demonstrated that both approachs have similar sensitivities. The results corroborate the validity of the Simultest, as a simplified, fast and economic version of the Ames test in preliminary screening of potential mutagenic drugs.

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for measles antibody: a comparison with haemagglutination inhibition, immunofluorescence and plaque neutralization tests

An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for measles antibodies was compared with Plaque Neutralization (PRN), Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) and Fluorescent antibody (IFA) tests in 181 sera from vaccinated children and umbilical cord. Of 179 positive samples by the sensitive PRN, only two, with titers of 8, were negative by ELISA (copositivity of 98.9%). IFA and HI presented, respectively, copo-sitivities of 93.3% and 82.7%. The ELISA presented a high sensitivity as well as a good reproducibility and represents an alternative for the time consuming PRN for detection of low measles antibodies.

Self-scheduling and bidding strategies of thermal units with stochastic emission constraints

This paper is on the self-scheduling problem for a thermal power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market as a price-taker, having bilateral contracts and emission-constrained. An approach based on stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach is proposed for solving the self-scheduling problem. Uncertainty regarding electricity price is considered through a set of scenarios computed by simulation and scenario-reduction. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. A requirement on emission allowances to mitigate carbon footprint is modelled by a stochastic constraint. Supply functions for different emission allowance levels are accessed in order to establish the optimal bidding strategy. A case study is presented to illustrate the usefulness and the proficiency of the proposed approach in supporting biding strategies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance indexes of a dot-enzime-linked immunosorbent assay (dot-ELISA) and an ezyme-linked immunosorbent assay (IgG-ELISA) for field surveys of new world leishmaniasis

Diagnostic performance indexes of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and efficiency were determined for dot-ELISA and IgG-ELISA tests in 340 leishmaniasis sera. Sensitivity of the dot-ELISA was significantly lower than IgG-ELISA's; the two tests had indexes of specificity and positive predictive value of the same magnitude. Seventy-eight sera gave a negative dot-ELISA test result and a positive IgG-ELISA test result. When sera were classified according to different criteria as how to interpret this diversity, the kappa statistic did not corroborate the classification indicating that the two tests display a substantial strength of agreement. The results presented indicate that performance indexes accrued in a survey where variables arc well known may be extrapolated to other population studies if the disease presents itself as highly prevalent (due to a selection bias or not) and may be expected to discriminate a disease status among test positives.

Evolution of subpatent parasitaemia in Trypanosoma cruzi chronically infected mice with the help of a cyclophosphamide amplification transfer assay

We have evaluated the sensitivity of the classical blood subinoculation method, modified through cyclophosphamide treatment of transferred mice, for the detection of occult parasitaemias in Trypanosoma cruzi chronically infected mice. Besides its simplicity, the method was shown to be highly sensitive for both the "chronic" phase parasites (99% of chronic cases were shown to harbour occult parasitaemias) and for the acute phase parasites (T. cruzi could be detected in 53.8% of animals transferred with one Y strain parasite and in 20% of animals transferred with one CL strain parasite). Using acute phase bloodforms, the assay proved to be more sensitive than conventional subinoculation when dealing with the CL, but not the Y strain of the parasite. With the help of this parasite detection tool, we have studied during a one year period, the evolution of subpatent parasitaemias in a group of mice which survived through chemotherapy from lethal acute phase of T. cruzi infection. Cyclophosphamide transfer assay revealed occult parasitaemias in 100% of the chronic animals, nevertheless, continuous and discontinuous patterns of positivity were observed.

A Hybrid Simulated Annealing approach to handle Energy Resource Management considering an intensive use of Electric Vehicles

The massification of electric vehicles (EVs) can have a significant impact on the power system, requiring a new approach for the energy resource management. The energy resource management has the objective to obtain the optimal scheduling of the available resources considering distributed generators, storage units, demand response and EVs. The large number of resources causes more complexity in the energy resource management, taking several hours to reach the optimal solution which requires a quick solution for the next day. Therefore, it is necessary to use adequate optimization techniques to determine the best solution in a reasonable amount of time. This paper presents a hybrid artificial intelligence technique to solve a complex energy resource management problem with a large number of resources, including EVs, connected to the electric network. The hybrid approach combines simulated annealing (SA) and ant colony optimization (ACO) techniques. The case study concerns different EVs penetration levels. Comparisons with a previous SA approach and a deterministic technique are also presented. For 2000 EVs scenario, the proposed hybrid approach found a solution better than the previous SA version, resulting in a cost reduction of 1.94%. For this scenario, the proposed approach is approximately 94 times faster than the deterministic approach.

Standardization of dot-ELISA for the serological diagnosis of toxocariasis and comparision of the assay with ELISA

The dot-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (dot-ELISA) was standardized using somatic (S) and excretory-secretory (ES) antigens of Toxocara-canis for the detection of specific antibodies in 22 serum samples from children aged 1 to 15 years, with clinical signs of toxocariasis. Fourteen serum samples from apparently normal individuals and 28 sera from patients with other pathologies were used as controls. All samples were used before and after absorption with Ascaris suum extract. When the results were evaluated in comparison with ELISA, the two tests were found to have similar sensitivity, but dot-ELISA was found to be more specific in the presence of the two antigens studied. Dot-ELISA proved to be effective for the diagnosis of human toxocariasis, presenting advantages in terms of yield, stability, time and ease of execution and low cost.

Tertiary evolution of the São Vicente and Setúbal submarine canyons, Southwest Portugal: insights from seismic stratigraphy

The Setúbal and São Vicente canyons are two major modern submarine canyons located in the southwest Iberian margin of Portugal. Although recognised as Pliocene to Quaternary features, their development during the Tertiary has not been fully understood up to date. A grid of 2D seismic data has been used to characterise the sedimentary deposits of the adjacent flanks to the submarine canyons. The relationship between the geological structure of the margin and the canyon's present location has been investigated. The interpretation of the main seismic units allowed the recognition of three generations of ravinements probably originated after middle Oligocene. Six units grouped in two distinctive seismic sequences have been identified and correlated with offshore stratigraphic data. Seismic Sequence 2 (SS2), the oldest, overlies Mesozoic and upper Eocene deformed units. Seismic Sequence I (SS1) is composed of four different seismic packages separated from SS2 by an erosional surface. The base of the studied sediment ridges is marked by an extensive erosional surface derived from a early/middle Oligocene relative sea-level fall. Deposition in the adjacent area to the actual canyons was reinitiated in late Oligocene in the form of transgressive and channel-fill deposits. A new depositional hiatus is recorded onshore during the Burdigalian, coincident with the unconformity separating SS1 and SS2. This can be correlated with the Arrábida unconformity and with the paroxysmal Burdigalian phase of the Betic domain. Presently, the Setúbal and São Vicente submarine canyons locally cut SS1 and SS2, forming distinctive channels from those recognised on the seismic data. On the upper shelf both dissect highly deformed areas subject to important erosion.