Energy saving innovations, non-exhaustible sources of energy and long-run: what would happen if we run out of oil?

We formulate and solve a model of factor saving technological improvement considering three factors of production: labor, capital and energy. The productive activities have three main characteristics: first, in order to use capital goods firms need energy; second, there are two sources of energy: non-exhaustible and exhaustible; third, capital goods can be of different qualities and the quality of these goods can be changed along two dimensions -reducing the need of energy or changing the source of energy used in the production process. The economy goes through three stages of development after industrialization. In the first, firms make use of exhaustible energy and the e¢ ciency in the use of energy is constant. In the second stage, as the price of energy grows the e¢ ciency in its use is increased. In the third stage, the price of exhaustible sources is so high that firms have incentives to use non-exhaustible sources of energy. During this stage the price of energy is constant. In this set up, the end of the oil age has level effects on consumption and output but it does not cause the collapse of the economic system.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Semiactive control strategies for vibration mitigation in adaptronic structures equipped with magnetorheological dampers

Los sistemas tales como edificios y veh¨ªculos est¨¢n sujetos a vibraciones que pueden causar mal funcionamiento, incomodidad o colapso. Para mitigar estas vibraciones, se suelen instalar amortiguadores. Estas estructuras se convierten en sistemas adaptr¨®nicos cuando los amortiguadores son controlables. Esta tesis se enfoca en la soluci¨®n del problema de vibraciones en edificios y veh¨ªculos usando amortiguadores magnetoreol¨®gicos (MR). Estos son unos amortiguadores controlables caracterizados por una din¨¢mica altamente no lineal. Adem¨¢s, los sistemas donde se instalan se caracterizan por la incertidumbre param¨¦trica, la limitaci¨®n de medidas y las perturbaciones desconocidas, lo que obliga al uso de t¨¦cnicas complejas de control. En esta tesis se usan Backstepping, QFT y H2/H¡Þ mixto para resolver el problema. Las leyes de control se verifican mediante simulaci¨®n y experimentaci¨®n.

La gestió turística local en el litoral català: una lectura des de la dialèctica socioespacial

L'aportació principal d'aquesta tesi és l'anàlisi de la gestió turística i les estratègies que els municipis del litoral català han desenvolupat per fer front a la crisi (o a la sensació de crisi) del model turístic tradicional que es va manifestar a principis dels anys noranta del segle passat. També proposa una nova visió de l'estructura territorial del litoral i aporta noves dades sobre l'evolució de l'oferta d'allotjament turístic a nivell municipal de tota la costa mediterrània espanyola entre els anys 1981 i 2001. El cos de la tesi s'estructura en tres parts: un marc teòric on es fa una anàlisi sistemàtica de les principals interpretacions sobre l'evolució de les destinacions madures, un capítol dedicat al models territorials litorals que, a més de l'anàlisi estadística descriptiva de les dades fa una anàlisi de conglomerats jeràrquics per definir els clusters territorials turístics, i finalment, una classificació de les estratègies que han desenvolupat els municipis litorals per adaptar-se a les noves formes de la demanda turística. Per a aquest darrer capítol s'ha entrevistat a 150 persones relacionades amb la gestió turística local i territorial dels municipis litorals catalans, a més d'estudiar els plans urbanístics i els documents d'estratègia turística. Això ha permès constatar que és principalment de l'àmbit local d'on parteixen les estratègies per adaptar-se a les noves formes de la demanda, i que aquestes respostes són diverses per què depenen del context (l'habitus habermasià) de cada municipi. Malgrat la diversitat, s'han pogut classificar les estratègies en cinc grups: les que intenten recrear l'espai turístic per convertir-lo en una autèntica ciutat per viure-hi tot l'any, les que es basen en la sostenibilitat, les que aposten per la hiperealitat, les que desenvolupen esdeveniments efímers i les que impulsen la millora de la qualitat del producte turístic tradicional. Generalment aquests canvis es desenvolupen per assaig-error, per intuïció, sense que responguin a un model preestablert. Una de les principals conclusions d'aquest apartat ens indica que hi ha pocs municipis que puguin explicitar el fons i la forma de la seva política turística. Per això es desenvolupen estratègies que es superposen, es barregen i, a vegades es contradiuen, fent que la política turística del municipi es reinventi contínuament. De fet, com dedueix una altra de les altres conclusions, el model turístic actual es basa en la innovació constant. Pel que fa al capítol teòric s'identifiquen les principals interpretacions sobre el canvi de model turístic i es classifiquen en cinc grups: les teories evolucionistes (Butler, Doxey, Miossec, Gormsen, Holder) que estableixen que les destinacions turístiques han de passar necessàriament per determinades fases, les teories que pronostiquen el col·lapse del sistema per superació de la capacitat de càrrega, les interpretacions que es basen en el canvi de l'escala, que parteixen de la idea que el turisme ha deixat de ser una activitat regional a un fenomen global, les que atribueixen als avenços tecnològics el canvi en el model i les que emmarquen els canvis turístics en un canvi més ampli que afecta a una societat que passa a ser postmoderna. De l'estudi teòric es desprèn que hi ha consens sobre la idea de crisi del model turístic però no hi ha unanimitat sobre les causes d'aquesta crisi ni sobre el nou model turístic que ha de sorgir. L'estudi empíric de les variables de l'oferta turística litoral, que és l'aportació principal del capítol dos, ha permès treure moltes conclusions, tant per l'estudi descriptiu de les dades com per l'anàlisi de conglomerats jeràrquics. En aquest breu resum només destacarem dues idees. La primera d'elles contempla que el litoral no és homogeni sinó que està constituït per cinc tipus diferents de municipis que formen unitats orgàniques que es repeteixen per tota la costa. Entre aquests tipus de municipis hi ha el que hem anomenat ociurbs, que concentren gran part de l'oferta turística, els nuclis turístics que tenen un nombre important de població resident i aporten mà d'obra i serveis, i les ciutats perifèriques que tot i estar a la costa viuen al marge del negoci turístic. L'altra idea a destacar és que en vint anys la distribució de l'oferta turística en el territori ha canviat poc: als lloc on hi havia una gran concentració de places al 1981, l'any 2001 encara són els llocs que ofereixen més serveis d'allotjament. S'observa però un important canvi en la tipologia dels allotjaments: en els 20 anys estudiats els habitatges turístics s'han consolidat com la modalitat d'allotjament emergent, a molta distància dels càmpings i l'oferta hotelera.

A segurança estrutural na reabilitação de património habitacional composto por elementos pré-fabricados

Pretende-se no presente artigo analisar a segurança estrutural do tipo de edificações referido, durante o seu processo de reabilitação. Considerando a existência de três momentos diferentes – o período antecedente ao início dos trabalhos, o intervalo de tempo correspondente ao decurso dos trabalhos de reabilitação e o período posterior, correspondente à futura utilização do património, é sobre o segundo que incidirá a nossa análise, por ser aquele em que a estrutura se encontra mais fragilizada, implicando uma menor segurança estrutural, que tende a ser desvalorizada, por ter uma natureza temporária. Numa primeira fase descreve-se o existente, assim como as alterações arquitetónicas propostas. Posteriormente indicam-se os potenciais danos estruturais resultantes das alterações pretendidas e as principais medidas a considerar para os evitar. Numa fase posterior propõe-se a sequenciação dos trabalhos de modo a evitar um colapso parcial ou global e, por último, apresentam-se conclusões e sugerem-se desenvolvimentos futuros. / The present work seeks to present an analysis related to the structural safety of prefabricated buildings, referred above, associated it’s rehabilitation process. Considering the existence of three different moments – a first period before the beginning of the works, a second one correspondent to the rehabilitation procedures and a last one related with the future utilization of the patrimony, this article will focus on the second period, because during that gap of time, the structure is usually weakened, which implies a lower structural safety that tends to be ignored, due to its temporary nature. In a first moment, the existing construction is described, as well as the architectonical proposals. Afterwards, are referred the potential structural damages resultant of the architectonical proposals and the measures to implemented to prevent them. In the posterior phase we propose the work sequence, in order to avoid a partial or global collapse and, finally, we reach some conclusions and suggest other works to be developed in the future.

A segurança estrutural relacionada com a escavação sob fundações de edifícios pré-existentes

Pretende-se no presente artigo analisar a segurança estrutural de edificações condicionadas por escavações a um nível inferior ao das suas fundações. Considerando a existência de três momentos diferentes – o período antecedente ao início dos trabalhos, o intervalo de tempo correspondente ao decurso dos trabalhos de reabilitação e o período posterior, correspondente à futura utilização do património, é sobre o segundo que incidirá a nossa análise, por ser aquele em que a estrutura se encontra mais fragilizada, implicando uma menor segurança estrutural, que tende a ser desvalorizada, por ter uma natureza temporária. Numa primeira fase descreve-se o existente, assim como as intervenções propostas. Posteriormente indicam-se os potenciais danos estruturais resultantes das alterações pretendidas e as principais medidas a considerar para os evitar. Numa fase posterior propõe-se a sequenciação dos trabalhos de modo a evitar um colapso parcial ou global e, por último, apresentam-se conclusões e sugerem-se desenvolvimentos futuros. / The present work seeks to present an analysis related to the structural safety of buildings that are object of excavations at a lower level than their foundations. Considering the existence of three different moments – a first period before the beginning of the works, a second one correspondent to the rehabilitation procedures and a last one related with the future utilization of the patrimony, this article will focus on the second period, because during that gap of time, the structure is usually weakened, which implies a lower structural safety that tends to be ignored, due to its temporary nature. In the first phase, the existing construction is described, as well as the proposed interventions. Afterwards, are referred the potential structural damages resultant of the architectonical proposals and the measures to implemented to prevent them. In the posterior phase we propose the work sequence, in order to avoid a partial or global collapse and, finally, we reach some conclusions and suggest other works to be developed in the future.

La contrarrevolución del virrey Abascal: Lima, 1806-1816 (Estudios)

Durante los años del colapso de la monarquía española, el Virreinato del Perú estuvo gobernado por Fernando de Abascal, quien, en alianza con la élíte de Lima, aplicó una política de represión en términos ideológicos y militares ante cualquier intento separatista o revolucionario, tanto dentro de su jurisdicción virreinal como fuera de ella, entre cuyos territorios vecinos estaban Quito, Chile y Charcas. Asimismo, mediante esta estrategia, el Virreinato de Lima intentó recuperar parte de la influencia perdida en América del Sur como consecuencia de la aplicación de las reformas borbónicas, especialmente durante la segunda mitad del siglo XVIII. El presente artículo pone atención a la respuesta de Lima contra al movimiento insurgente desatado en Quito a partir de 1809.

What distinguishes the euro crisis from a ‘normal’ financial crisis? CEPS Commentary, 6 November 2012

This Commentary attempts to discern the distinguishing features between the present euro crisis and the financial crisis brought on in the US by the subprime lending disaster and the ensuing collapse of banks and other financial institutions in 2007-08. It finds that whereas the US was able to bring its crisis to an end by socialising the dubious debt and stabilising its valuation so that it could migrate to other investors capable of bearing the risk, this pattern can be only partly repeated in the eurozone, where both debt socialisation and a return to normal risk assessment are more problematic.. It concludes, nevertheless, that the crisis should now abate somewhat given that most risk-averse institutions have by now sold their holdings of peripheral countries’ sovereign debt and especially in light of the ECB’s assurances that it will not allow the euro to disintegrate.

The Prize is more Peace: The EU should consolidate its enlargement process. CEPS Commentary, 8 November 2012

The sovereign debt crisis and the threat of financial collapse of some EU member states have triggered fierce debate about the economic, social and political finalité of the Union and curbed the appetite for further enlargement. The European Commission needs to find new ways to consolidate the enlargement agenda, gain full support of the member states for its implementation and assure a consistent application of the pre-accession requirements. Arguably, more time, more money and greater expertise are needed to pursue the vocation recognised by the Nobel Committee.

The Greek debt trap: an escape plan. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/19, 7 November 2012

Without corrective measures, Greek public debt will exceed 190 percent of GDP, instead of peaking at the anyway too-high target ratio of 167 percent of GDP of the March 2012 financial assistance programme. The rise is largely due to a negative feedback loop between high public debt and the collapse in GDP, and endangers Greek membership of the euro area. But a Greek exit would have devastating impacts both inside and outside Greece. A small reduction in the interest rate on bilateral loans, the exchange of European Central Bank holdings, buy-back of privately-held debt, and frontloading of some privatisation receipts are unlikely to be sufficient. A credible resolution should involve the reduction of the official lending rate to zero until 2020, an extension of the maturity of all official lending, and indexing the notional amount of all official loans to Greek GDP. Thereby, the debt ratio would fall below 100 percent of GDP by 2020, and if the economy deteriorates further, there will not be a need for new arrangements. But if growth is better than expected, official creditors will also benefit. In exchange for such help, the fiscal sovereignty of Greece should be curtailed further. An extended privatisation plan and future budget surpluses may be used to pay back the debt relief. The Greek fiscal tragedy highlights the need for a formal debt restructuring mechanism

The EU budget becomes politically more explosive. CEPS Commentary, 3 December 2012

H. Onno Ruding describes the negotiations on the EU budget, which will resume in 2013 following their collapse in late November, as “more awkward than usual”. In this new CEPS Commentary, he advises EU leaders to make the instrument more forward-looking in promoting economic growth in Europe and less focused on maintaining legacy entitlements of past years. In his view, this means more spending on research, innovation, education and infrastructure and also requires further reductions in the still-dominant agricultural subsidies as well as regional and structural funds.

Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus minimus) distribution and habitat use in a montane forest landscape of western Newfoundland, Canada

Once abundant, the Newfoundland Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus minimus) has declined by as much as 95% since 1975. Underlying cause(s) of this population collapse are not known, although hypotheses include loss of winter habitat and the introduction of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) to Newfoundland. Uncertainties regarding habitat needs are also extensive, and these knowledge gaps are an impediment to conservation. We investigated neighborhood (i.e., within 115 m [4.1 ha]) and landscape scale (i.e., within 1250 m [490.8 ha]) habitat associations of Gray-cheeked Thrush in a 200-km² study area in the Long Range Mountains of western Newfoundland, where elevations range from 300-600 m and landcover was a matrix of old growth fir forest, 6- to 8-year-old clearcuts, coniferous scrub, bogs, and barrens. Thrushes were restricted to elevations above ~375 m, and occurrence was strongly positively related to elevation. Occurrence was also positively related to cover of tall scrub forest at the neighborhood scale, and at the landscape scale showed curvilinear relations with the proportion of both tall scrub and old growth forest that peaked with intermediate amounts of cover. Occurrence of thrushes was also highest when clearcuts made up 60%-70% of neighborhood landcover, but was negatively related to cover of clearcuts in the broader landscape. Finally, occurrence was highest in areas having 50% cover of partially harvested forest (strip cuts or row cuts) at the neighborhood scale, but because this treatment was limited to one small portion of the study area, this finding may be spurious. Taken together, our results suggest selection for mixed habitats and sensitivity to both neighborhood and landscape-scale habitat. More research is needed on responses of thrushes to forestry, including use of older clearcuts, partially harvested stands, and precommercially thinned clearcuts. Finally, restriction of thrushes to higher elevations is consistent with the hypothesis that they have been impacted by squirrels, because squirrels were rare or absent at these elevations.

Rapid climate change: an overview for economists

The possibility of future rapid climatic changes is a pressing concern amongst climate scientists. For example, an abrupt collapse of the ocean's Thermohaline Circulation (THC) would rapidly cool the northern hemisphere and reduce the net global primary productivity of vegetation, according to computer models. It is unclear how to incorporate such low-probability, high-impact events into the development of economics policies. This paper reviews the salient aspects of rapid climate change relevant to economists and policy makers. The main scientific certainties and uncertainties are clearly delineated, with the aim of guiding economics goals and ensuring that they retain fidelity to their scientific underpinnings.

Why we need new spectacles: Mapping the experiential dimension in prehistoric Cretan landscapes

The Bronze to Iron Age transition in Crete, a period of state collapse and insecurity, saw the island's rugged, high-contrast topography used in striking new ways. The visual drama of many of the new site locations has stimulated significant research over the last hundred years, with explanation of the change as the main focus. The new sites are not monumental in character: the vast majority are settlements, and much of the information about them comes from survey. Perhaps as a result, the new site map has not been much studied from phenomenological perspectives. A focus on the visual and experiential aspects of the new landscape can offer valuable insights into social structures at this period, and illuminate social developments prefiguring the emergence of polis states in Crete by c. 700 BC. To develop, share and evaluate this type of integrated study, digital reconstructive techniques are still under-used in this region. I highlight their potential value in addressing a regularly-identified shortcoming of phenomenological approaches-their necessarily subjective emphasis.

Resistivity imaging survey of the Roman barrows at Bartlow, Cambridgeshire, UK

Resistivity imaging was carried out on four large Roman barrows at Bartlow in Cambridgeshire. The geophysical survey formed part of a wider research project designed to record and assess the landscape context of the largest surviving Roman burial mounds in Britain. The barrows today range in height from 6.6 m to 13.2 m and their steep profile loosed particular practical and modelling challenges. Data were obtained using a Campus Geopulse resistance meter with up to 50 electrodes spaced at 1 m intervals and lines up to 76 m long. A total of 24 lines was obtained. Topographic corrections were applied to the pseudosections, whichwere inverted using Res 2 Dinv and Res3 Dinv. Resistivity imaging was particularly successful in identifying evidence for the antiquarian explorations of the site. Central collapse features or in-filled tunnels image as high resistance features in all barrows and in one (Barrow IV) there is also a low resistance feature in the approximate position of a known antiquarian tunnel. Barrow VI had a thick covering of high-resistivity that may relate to nineteenth century landscaping and reconstruction of this monument. Resistivity imaging also revealed possible evidence for ancient revetments in all four large barrows. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.