Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Impacts of modern transitions on thermal comfort in vernacular dwellings in warm-humid climate of Sugganahalli (India)

Sugganahalli, a rural vernacular community in a warm-humid region in South India, is under transition towards adopting modern construction practices. Vernacular local building elements like rubble walls and mud roofs are given way to burnt brick walls and reinforced cement concrete (RCC)/tin roofs. Over 60% of Indian population is rural, and implications of such transitions on thermal comfort and energy in buildings are crucial to understand. Vernacular architecture evolves adopting local resources in response to the local climate adopting passive solar designs. This paper investigates the effectiveness of passive solar elements on the indoor thermal comfort by adopting modern climate-responsive design strategies. Dynamic simulation models validated by measured data have also been adopted to determine the impact of the transition from vernacular to modern material-configurations. Age-old traditional design considerations were found to concur with modern understanding into bio-climatic response and climate-responsiveness. Modern transitions were found to increase the average indoor temperatures in excess of 7 degrees C. Such transformations tend to shift the indoor conditions to a psychrometric zone that is likely to require active air-conditioning. Also, the surveyed thermal sensation votes were found to lie outside the extended thermal comfort boundary for hot developing countries provided by Givoni in the bio-climatic chart.

Sensitivity of simulated climate to latitudinal distribution of solar insolation reduction in solar radiation management

Solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering has been proposed as a potential option to counteract climate change. We perform a set of idealized geoengineering simulations using Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to investigate the global hydrological implications of varying the latitudinal distribution of solar insolation reduction in SRM methods. To reduce the solar insolation we have prescribed sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. The radiative forcing in the geoengineering simulations is the net forcing from a doubling of CO2 and the prescribed stratospheric aerosols. We find that for a fixed total mass of sulfate aerosols (12.6 Mt of SO4), relative to a uniform distribution which nearly offsets changes in global mean temperature from a doubling of CO2, global mean radiative forcing is larger when aerosol concentration is maximum at the poles leading to a warmer global mean climate and consequently an intensified hydrological cycle. Opposite changes are simulated when aerosol concentration is maximized in the tropics. We obtain a range of 1 K in global mean temperature and 3% in precipitation changes by varying the distribution pattern in our simulations: this range is about 50% of the climate change from a doubling of CO2. Hence, our study demonstrates that a range of global mean climate states, determined by the global mean radiative forcing, are possible for a fixed total amount of aerosols but with differing latitudinal distribution. However, it is important to note that this is an idealized study and thus not all important realistic climate processes are modeled.

Cold beam of isotopically pure Yb atoms by deflection using 1D-optical molasses

We demonstrate the generation of an isotopically pure beam of laser-cooled Yb atoms by deflection using 1D-optical molasses. Atoms in a collimated thermal beam are first slowed using a Zeeman slower. They are then subjected to a pair of molasses beams inclined at 45(a similar to) with respect to the slowed atomic beam. The slowed atoms are deflected and probed at a distance of 160 mm. We demonstrate the selective deflection of the bosonic isotope Yb-174 and the fermionic isotope Yb-171. Using a transient measurement after the molasses beams are turned on, we find a longitudinal temperature of 41 mK.

Return levels of hydrologic droughts under climate change

Developments in the statistical extreme value theory, which allow non-stationary modeling of changes in the frequency and severity of extremes, are explored to analyze changes in return levels of droughts for the Colorado River. The transient future return levels (conditional quantiles) derived from regional drought projections using appropriate extreme value models, are compared with those from observed naturalized streamflows. The time of detection is computed as the time at which significant differences exist between the observed and future extreme drought levels, accounting for the uncertainties in their estimates. Projections from multiple climate model-scenario combinations are considered; no uniform pattern of changes in drought quantiles is observed across all the projections. While some projections indicate shifting to another stationary regime, for many projections which are found to be non-stationary, detection of change in tail quantiles of droughts occurs within the 21st century with no unanimity in the time of detection. Earlier detection is observed in droughts levels of higher probability of exceedance. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reply to ``Comment on `Strongly magnetized cold degenerate electron gas: Mass-radius relation of the magnetized white dwarf'''

We show that the upper bound for the central magnetic field of a super-Chandrasekhar white dwarf calculated by Nityananda and Konar Phys. Rev. D 89, 103017 (2014)] and in the concerned comment, by the same authors, against our work U. Das and B. Mukhopadhyay, Phys. Rev. D 86, 042001 (2012)] is erroneous. This in turn strengthens the argument in favor of the stability of the recently proposed magnetized super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs. We also point out several other numerical errors in their work. Overall we conclude that the arguments put forth by Nityananda and Konar are misleading.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

High Temperatures Result in Smaller Nurseries which Lower Reproduction of Pollinators and Parasites in a Brood Site Pollination Mutualism

In a nursery pollination mutualism, we asked whether environmental factors affected reproduction of mutualistic pollinators, non-mutualistic parasites and seed production via seasonal changes in plant traits such as inflorescence size and within-tree reproductive phenology. We examined seasonal variation in reproduction in Ficus racemosa community members that utilise enclosed inflorescences called syconia as nurseries. Temperature, relative humidity and rainfall defined four seasons: winter; hot days, cold nights; summer and wet seasons. Syconium volumes were highest in winter and lowest in summer, and affected syconium contents positively across all seasons. Greater transpiration from the nurseries was possibly responsible for smaller syconia in summer. The 3-5 degrees C increase in mean temperatures between the cooler seasons and summer reduced fig wasp reproduction and increased seed production nearly two-fold. Yet, seed and pollinator progeny production were never negatively related in any season confirming the mutualistic fig-pollinator association across seasons. Non-pollinator parasites affected seed production negatively in some seasons, but had a surprisingly positive relationship with pollinators in most seasons. While within-tree reproductive phenology did not vary across seasons, its effect on syconium inhabitants varied with season. In all seasons, within-tree reproductive asynchrony affected parasite reproduction negatively, whereas it had a positive effect on pollinator reproduction in winter and a negative effect in summer. Seasonally variable syconium volumes probably caused the differential effect of within-tree reproductive phenology on pollinator reproduction. Within-tree reproductive asynchrony itself was positively affected by intra-tree variation in syconium contents and volume, creating a unique feedback loop which varied across seasons. Therefore, nursery size affected fig wasp reproduction, seed production and within-tree reproductive phenology via the feedback cycle in this system. Climatic factors affecting plant reproductive traits cause biotic relationships between plants, mutualists and parasites to vary seasonally and must be accorded greater attention, especially in the context of climate change.

The cold mode: a phenomenological model for the evolution of density perturbations in the intracluster medium

Cool cluster cores are in global thermal equilibrium but are locally thermally unstable. We study a non-linear phenomenological model for the evolution of density perturbations in the intracluster medium (ICM) due to local thermal instability and gravity. We have analysed and extended a model for the evolution of an overdense blob in the ICM. We find two regimes in which the overdense blobs can cool to thermally stable low temperatures. One for large t(cool)/t(ff) (t(cool) is the cooling time and t(ff) is the free-fall time), where a large initial overdensity is required for thermal runaway to occur; this is the regime which was previously analysed in detail. We discover a second regime for t(cool)/t(ff) less than or similar to 1 (in agreement with Cartesian simulations of local thermal instability in an external gravitational field), where runaway cooling happens for arbitrarily small amplitudes. Numerical simulations have shown that cold gas condenses out more easily in a spherical geometry. We extend the analysis to include geometrical compression in weakly stratified atmospheres such as the ICM. With a single parameter, analogous to the mixing length, we are able to reproduce the results from numerical simulations; namely, small density perturbations lead to the condensation of extended cold filaments only if t(cool)/t(ff) less than or similar to 10.

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal Response on the Microstructure and Texture of ECAP and Cold-Rolled Pure Magnesium

This paper deals with dynamic recrystallization (DRX), static recrystallization, and grain growth phenomena of pure magnesium after equal channel angular pressing (ECAP) by route A and B-C at 523 K (250 A degrees C) followed by 80 pct cold rolling. The ECAP-deformed and the subsequently rolled samples were annealed at 373 K and 773 K (100 A degrees C and 500 A degrees C). The associated changes in the microstructure and texture were studied using electron back-scattered diffraction. ECAP produced an average grain size of 12 to 18 A mu m with B and C-2 fiber textures. Subsequent rolling led to an average grain size 8 to 10 A mu m with basal texture fiber parallel to ND. There was no noticeable increase in the average grain size on annealing at 373 K (100 A degrees C). However, significant increase in the average grain size occurred at 773 K (500 A degrees C). The occurrence of different DRX mechanisms was detected: discontinuous dynamic recrystallization was attributed to basal slip activity and continuous dynamic recovery and recrystallization to prismatic/pyramidal slip systems. Only continuous static recrystallization could be observed on annealing.

Impacts of climate change and management responses in tropical forests depend on complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal

AimBiodiversity outcomes under global change will be influenced by a range of ecological processes, and these processes are increasingly being considered in models of biodiversity change. However, the level of model complexity required to adequately account for important ecological processes often remains unclear. Here we assess how considering realistically complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal influences the projected climate change outcomes for plant diversity in the Australian Wet Tropics (all 4313 species). LocationThe Australian Wet Tropics, Queensland, Australia. MethodsWe applied a metacommunity model (M-SET) to project biodiversity outcomes using seed dispersal models that varied in complexity, combined with alternative climate change scenarios and habitat restoration scenarios. ResultsWe found that the complexity of the dispersal model had a larger effect on projected biodiversity outcomes than did dramatically different climate change scenarios. Applying a simple dispersal model that ignored spatial, temporal and taxonomic variation due to frugivore-mediated seed dispersal underestimated the reduction in the area of occurrence of plant species under climate change and overestimated the loss of diversity in fragmented tropical forest remnants. The complexity of the dispersal model also changed the habitat restoration approach identified as the best for promoting persistence of biodiversity under climate change. Main conclusionsThe consideration of complex processes such as frugivore-mediated seed dispersal can make an important difference in how we understand and respond to the influence of climate change on biodiversity.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.