Auge minero-energético, enfermedad holandesa e informalidad en Colombia: un análisis a partir de un modelo DSGE

El presente trabajo desarrolla un modelo macroeconómico de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico (DSGE), con el fin de analizar los efectos macroeconómicos que se derivan de simular un choque positivo al componente estocástico de la productividad del sector minero-energético. Este hecho genera un aumento generalizado de los salarios en el sector formal y en el recaudo tributario, incrementando el consumo total de los miembros del hogar. Esto genera un incremento del precio de los bienes no transables relativo al precio de los bienes transables, disminuyendo la tasa de cambio real (apreciación) y provocando un desplazamiento de los recursos productivos, desde el sector transable (manufacturero) al no-transable, seguido de un aumento en el PIB y empleo formal de la economía. Esto hace que el sector formal agregado absorba trabajadores desde el sector informal a través del subsector formal no-transable, lo que disminuye el PIB informal. En consecuencia, el consumo neto de los miembros informales disminuye, lo que incentiva a que algunos miembros del hogar no se empleen en el sector informal y prefieran quedarse desempleados. Por lo tanto, el resultado final sobre el mercado laboral es una disminución de los trabajadores informales, de los cuales una parte se encuentra en el sector formal, y la parte restante está en condición de desempleo.

La relación del Polo Democrático Alternativo y el movimiento cafetero de la última década

El propósito de este trabajo consistió en analizar las razones por las que un sector gobiernista, consentido en la vida nacional como el cafetero, se vuelve atractivo para la izquierda, y aparentemente, receptivo hacia sus tesis y organizaciones. La pregunta que se propuso investigar fue ¿Hasta qué punto el trabajo de los miembros del PDA ante el sector cafetero repercutió en apoyo político? Para dar con su respuesta se expuso la dinámica económica del café, las organizaciones e instituciones cafeteras y finalmente los vínculos con la política. Dando así como resultado un examen de la táctica del Polo Democrático Alternativo para ganar respaldo en el sector.

Corrupción, reforma y realidad. Incidencia de la corrupción publicada por los medios de comunicación en la estructura de la policía nacional de Colombia (1993 – 2012)

El texto analiza el impacto de la corrupción policial presentada por los medios de comunicación desde 1993 hasta el 2012 en la estructura interna de la Policía Nacional de Colombia. En el primer capítulo se plantea un estado del arte del concepto de corrupción policial, asimismo, se incluyen las teorías bajo las cuales se ha entendido el fenómeno a nivel mundial buscando generar soluciones plausibles a un flagelo en el que se ven inmiscuidos una gran cantidad de cuerpos policiales en el mundo. En el segundo apartado, se evalúa de manera cuantitativa cómo los casos de corrupción han modificado la estructura de la Policía Nacional, pero a su vez, cómo éstas modificaciones han sido evanescentes. En el tercer capítulo, se escudriña el impacto y los cambios estructurales desde la perspectiva de los miembros del cuerpo policial, recurriendo a la recolección de datos de manera cualitativa por medio de entrevistas y encuestas. En el cuarto momento se analiza la incidencia de los directores de la policía en la lucha contra la corrupción policial y como se establece una relación entre los subalternos y los mandos medios al momento de realizar este tipo de actividades. Finalmente se plasman las conclusiones a las que se llegó posterior a la realización del trabajo investigativo.

Avaliação das actividades antioxidante e antimicrobiana do óleo de café verde em formulações cosméticas

O óleo de café verde (OCV) e formulações cosméticas que contendo 2,5, 5, 10 e 15% de óleo foram avaliados por métodos in vitro quanto às suas atividades antioxidante e antimicrobiana. O OCV e as suas formulações demostraram baixa actividade antioxidante, avaliada pelo método DPPH (42% do OCV foi equivalente a 0,002% de BHT). Não se observou atividade antimicrobiana para o OCV e as suas formulações contra Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus epidermidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Bacilus subtilis, Propionibacterium acnes e Candida albicans, utilizando o método de difusão em poço. Embora o OCV seja utilizado há muitos anos em formulações cosméticas, ainda são necessários mais estudos para apoiar adequadamente a utilidade do óleo de café em produtos para cuidado da saúde da pele e em cosméticos.

Avaliação das propriedades sensoriais de uma formulação cosmética contendo óleo de café verde

O óleo de café verde (OCV) é um ingrediente bastante conhecido com propriedades cosméticas como: manter a hidratação da pele, melhorar o fator de proteção solar e manter a função barreira da pele. Assim, o objectivo deste estudo foi avaliar a influência da adição de uma quantidade considerável de OCV (15%) nas propriedades sensoriais de uma formulação cosmética. O painel sensorial consistiu de 19 voluntários com idades entre 19 e 43 anos. Os atributos sensoriais foram avaliadas em uma região definida de 25 cm2 na parte interna do antebraço. Os voluntários foram instruídos a avaliar as propriedades sensoriais que eles sentiam para cada formulação imediatamente e 5 minutos após a aplicação. As formulações mostraram quase a mesma percepção entre os voluntários. A maioria dos voluntários percebeu a pele suave e hidratada após a aplicação das formulações. No entanto, a percepção de um resíduo oleoso sobre a pele foi o principal efeito da formulação contendo OCV. Assim, podemos concluir que a quantidade total de OCV utilizado mostrou propriedades interessantes para aplicação em peles secas ou cremes noturnos, uma vez que foi capaz de deixar uma película oleosa sobre a pele.

Collaborative eLearning Assistant Network: caring agents are conscious agents

Would a research assistant - who can search for ideas related to those you are working on, network with others (but only share the things you have chosen to share), doesn’t need coffee and who might even, one day, appear to be conscious - help you get your work done? Would it help your students learn? There is a body of work showing that digital learning assistants can be a benefit to learners. It has been suggested that adaptive, caring, agents are more beneficial. Would a conscious agent be more caring, more adaptive, and better able to deal with changes in its learning partner’s life? Allow the system to try to dynamically model the user, so that it can make predictions about what is needed next, and how effective a particular intervention will be. Now, given that the system is essentially doing the same things as the user, why don’t we design the system so that it can try to model itself in the same way? This should mimic a primitive self-awareness. People develop their personalities, their identities, through interacting with others. It takes years for a human to develop a full sense of self. Nobody should expect a prototypical conscious computer system to be able to develop any faster than that. How can we provide a computer system with enough social contact to enable it to learn about itself and others? We can make it part of a network. Not just chatting with other computers about computer ‘stuff’, but involved in real human activity. Exposed to ‘raw meaning’ – the developing folksonomies coming out of the learning activities of humans, whether they are traditional students or lifelong learners (a term which should encompass everyone). Humans have complex psyches, comprised of multiple strands of identity which reflect as different roles in the communities of which they are part – so why not design our system the same way? With multiple internal modes of operation, each capable of being reflected onto the outside world in the form of roles – as a mentor, a research assistant, maybe even as a friend. But in order to be able to work with a human for long enough to be able to have a chance of developing the sort of rich behaviours we associate with people, the system needs to be able to function in a practical and helpful role. Unfortunately, it is unlikely to get a free ride from many people (other than its developer!) – so it needs to be able to perform a useful role, and do so securely, respecting the privacy of its partner. Can we create a system which learns to be more human whilst helping people learn?

'Fair trade gold': Antecedents, prospects and challenges

This paper critically examines the challenges with, and impacts of, adopting the models in place for fair trade agriculture in the artisanal gold mining sector. Over the past two years, an NGO-led 'fair trade gold' movement has surfaced, its crystallization fuelled by a burgeoning body of evidence that points to impoverished artisanal miners in developing countries receiving low payments for their gold, as well as working in hazardous and unsanitary conditions. Proponents of fair trade gold contest that increased interaction between artisanal miners and Western jewellers could facilitate the former receiving fairer prices for gold, accessing support services, and ultimately, improving their quality of life. In the case of sub-Saharan Africa, however, the gold being mined on an artisanal scale does not supply Western retailers as perhaps believed; it is rather an important source of foreign exchange, which host governments employ buyers to collect for their coffers. It is maintained here that if the underlying purpose of fair trade is to improve the livelihoods and well-being of subsistence producers in developing countries, then the models that have proved so successful in alleviating the hardships of agro-producers of 'tropical' commodities such as coffee, tea, bananas and cocoa, should be adapted to artisanal gold mining in sub-Saharan Africa. Campaigns promoting 'fair trade gold' in the region should view host governments, and not Western retailers, as the 'end consumer', and focus on improving governance at the grassroots, organizing informal operators into working cooperatives, and addressing complications with purchasing arrangements - all of which would go a long way toward improving the livelihoods of subsistence artisanal miners. A case study of Noyem, Ghana, the location of a sprawling illegal gold mining community, is presented, which magnifies these challenges further and provides perspective on how they can be overcome. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water use of a bioenergy plantation increases in a future high CO2 world

Fast-growing poplar trees may in future be used as a source of renewable energy for heat, electricity and biofuels such as bioethanol. Water use in Populus x euramericana (clone I214), following long-term exposure to elevated CO2 in the POPFACE (poplar free-air carbon dioxide enrichment) experiment, is quantified here. Stomatal conductance was measured and, during two measurement campaigns made before and after coppicing, whole-tree water use was determined using heat-balance sap-flow gauges, first validated using eddy covariance measurements of latent heat flux. Water use was determined by the balance between leaf-level reductions in stomatal conductance and tree-level stimulations in transpiration. Reductions in stomatal conductance were found that varied between 16 and 39% relative to ambient air. Whole-tree sap flow was increased in plants growing under elevated CO2, on average, by 12 and 23%, respectively, in the first and in the second measurement campaigns. These results suggest that future CO2 concentrations may result in an increase in seasonal water use in fast-growing, short-rotation Populus plantations.

Transformation of plant cells

Plant cells are transformed by bringing them into contact with a a multiplicity of needle-like bodies on which the cells may be impaled. This causes a rupture in the cell wall allowing entry of transforming DNA either from a surrounding liquid medium or of DNA previously bound to or otherwise entrapped in the needle-like projections.

Transformation of plant cells

Plant cells are transformed by bringing them into contact with a a multiplicity of needle-like bodies on which the cells may be impaled. This causes a rupture in the cell wall allowing entry of transforming DNA either from a surrounding liquid medium or of DNA previously bound to or otherwise entrapped in the needle-like projections.

Challenges in elevated CO2 experiments on forests

Current forest Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments are reaching completion. Therefore, it is time to define the scientific goals and priorities of future experimental facilities. In this opinion article, we discuss the following three overarching issues (i) What are the most urgent scientific questions and how can they be addressed? (ii) What forest ecosystems should be investigated? (iii) Which other climate change factors should be coupled with elevated CO2 concentrations in future experiments to better predict the effects of climate change? Plantations and natural forests can have conflicting purposes for high productivity and environmental protection. However, in both cases the assessment of carbon balance and how this will be affected by elevated CO2 concentrations and the interacting climate change factors is the most pressing priority for future experiments.

Societal choice for climate change futures: trees, biotechnology and clean development

The rate and magnitude of predicted climate change require that we urgently mitigate emissions or sequester carbon on a substantial scale in order to avoid runaway climate change. Geo- and bioengineering solutions are increasingly proposed as viable and practical strategies for tackling global warming. Biotechnology companies are already developing transgenic “super carbon-absorbing” trees, which are sold as a cost-effective and relatively low-risk means of sequestering carbon. The question posed in this article is, Do super carbon trees provide real benefits or are they merely a fanciful illusion? It remains unclear whether growing these trees makes sense in terms of the carbon cost of production and the actual storage of carbon. In particular, it is widely acknowledged that “carbon-eating” trees fail to sequester as much carbon as they oxidize and return to the atmosphere; moreover, there are concerns about the biodiversity impacts of large-scale monoculture plantations. The potential social and ecological risks and opportunities presented by such controversial solutions warrant a societal dialogue.

Changes in liking for a no added salt soup as a function of exposure

Multiple exposures have been shown to increase preference for novel foods or flavours. This "mere exposure" effect is also well known anecdotally for changes in preference for tastants within foods, for example reducing sugar in tea or coffee. However, to date, this phenomenon has received little scientific attention. The present study addressed this issue in relation to changes in preference for salt within soup. Following an initial assessment of liking, familiarity and saltiness of six soups varying in salt content (0 - 337 mg NaCl/ml), thirty-seven participants, previously assessed for their preferred salt level in soup, were allocated to either an exposure group that received 20 ml soup samples with no added salt, to a group that received a 280 ml bowl of this soup, or to a control group that received 20 ml soup samples containing salt at 280mg/100g (within normal, commercial range). Soups were presented on eight occasions, at approximately daily intervals. The two groups receiving the no added salt soup showed increases in liking starting at the third exposure, and also evident in a repeat assessment following the exposures. Increases in familiarity of the no added salt soup were also evident during exposure. Rated saltiness of all soups increased as a function of exposure, so a change in saltiness perception could not account for changes in liking for just the no added salt soups. These data suggest that simple exposure to the taste of the no added salt soup was sufficient to increase liking to a level equivalent to the initially more preferred salt level.

'A theatre of ruins'. Edward Bond & Samuel Beckett: theatrical antagonists

The playwright Edward Bond has long made known his antagonism to dramatists allied to Martin Esslin’s Theatre of the Absurd. The work of Samuel Beckett has come in for particular criticism by Bond. Using published writings (and unpublished correspondence between myself and Bond), I hope to trace the development of this antagonism between ‘Bondian’ and ‘Beckettian’ views of theatre. However, this article will also set out to argue that both early work such as The Pope’s Wedding (1962), and more recent work such as Coffee (1995), make use of motifs, characters and ideas from Beckett’s theatre. The article will set out provisional reasons why Bond, despite his misgivings, is not averse to incorporating elements from Beckett’s ‘theatre of ruins’, as he terms it, into his own work.

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.