An alternative socio-ecological strategy? International Trade Unions' engagement with climate change

In the context of a global ecological crisis, it is an important move when trade unions turn to environmentalism. Yet, the form that this environmentalism takes is often overlooked. This is especially the case with international trade unions. Based on an empirical study of international trade unions' engagement with the climate change issue, this article argues that international trade unions follow three different (and partially conflicting) strategies. I label these strategies as 'deliberative', 'collaborative growth' and 'socialist', and I examine each in turn. I argue that such analysis is important if we want to identify the potential for transforming the social relations of production that are at the root of the current climate crisis, and for identifying an alternative socio-ecological strategy.

Embodied technical change and the fluctuations of wages and unemployment

The paper shows that a matching model where technological change is partially embodied in the job match is successful in explaining the variability of unemployment and vacancies. If we incorporate long-term wage contracts into the model, it also explains a number of stylized facts on the dynamics of real wages, which have been found in the empirical labor literature.

National Adaptation Programme of Action on Climate Change - 2008 - 2012

The archipelago of Cape Verde is made up of ten islands and nine islets and is located between latitudes 14º 28' N and 17º 12' N and longitudes 22º 40' W and 25º 22' W. It is located approximately 500 km from the Senegal coast in West Africa (Figure 1). The islands are divided into two groups: Windward and Leeward. The Windward group is composed of the islands of Santo Antão, São Vicente, Santa Luzia, São Nicolau, Sal and Boavista; and the Leeward group is composed of the islands Maio, Santiago, Fogo and Brava. The archipelago has a total land surface of 4,033 km2 and an Economic Exclusive Zone (ZEE) that extends for approximately 734,000 km2. In general, the relief is very steep, culminating with high elevations (e.g. 2,829 m on Fogo and 1,979 m on Santo Antão). The surface area, geophysical configuration and geology vary greatly from one island to the next. Cape Verde, due to its geomorphology, has a dense and complex hydrographical network. However, there are no permanent water courses and temporary water courses run only during the rainy season. These temporary water courses drain quickly towards the main watersheds, where, unless captured by artificial means, continue rapidly to lower areas and to the sea. This applies equally to the flatter islands. The largest watershed is Rabil with an area of 199.2 km2. The watershed areas on other islands extend over less than 70 km2. Cape Verde is both a least developed country (LDC) and a small island development state (SIDS). In 2002, the population of Cape Verde was estimated at approximately 451,000, of whom 52% were women and 48% men. The population was growing at an average 2.4% per year, and the urban population was estimated at 53.7 %. Over the past 15 years, the Government has implemented a successful development strategy, leading to a sustained economic growth anchored on development of the private sector and the integration of Cape Verde into the world economy. During this period, the tertiary sector has become increasingly important, with strong growth in the tourism, transport, banking and trade sectors. Overall, the quality of life indicators show substantial improvements in almost all areas: housing conditions, access to drinking water and sanitation, use of modern energy in both lighting and cooking, access to health services and education. Despite these overall socio-economic successes, the primary sector has witnessed limited progress. Weak performance in the primary sector has had a severe negative impact on the incomes and poverty risks faced by rural workers1. Moreover, relative poverty has increased significantly during the past decade. The poverty profile shows that: (i) extreme poverty is mostly found in rural areas, although it has also increased in urban areas; (ii) poverty is more likely to occur when the head of the household is a woman; (iii) poverty increases with family size; (iv) education significantly affects poverty; (v) the predominantly agricultural islands of Santo Antão and Fogo have the highest poverty rates; (vi) unemployment affects the poor more than the nonpoor; (vii) agriculture and fisheries workers are more likely to be poor than those in other sectors. Therefore, the fight against poverty and income inequalities remains one of the greatest challenges for Cape Verde authorities. The various governments of Cape Verde over the last decade have demonstrated a commitment to improving governance, notably by encouraging a democratic culture that guarantees stability and democratic changes without conflicts. This democratic governance offers a space for a wider participation of citizens in public management and consolidates social cohesion. However, there are some remaining challenges related to democratic governance and the gains must be systematically monitored. Finally, it is worth emphasizing that the country’s insularity has stimulated a movement to decentralized governance, although social inequalities and contrasts from one island to the next constitute, at the same time, challenges and opportunities.

Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council Final Report 2008.

On April 27, 2007, Iowa Governor Chet Culver signed Senate File 485, a bill related to greenhouse gas emissions. Part of this bill created the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC), which consists of 23 governor-appointed members from various stakeholder groups, and 4 nonvoting, ex officio members from the General Assembly. ICCAC’s immediate responsibilities included submitting a proposal to the Governor and General Assembly that addresses policies, cost-effective strategies, and multiple scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions. Further, a preliminary report was submitted in January 2008, with a final proposal submitted in December 2008. In the Final Report, the Council presents two scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and 90% from a 2005 baseline by the year 2050. For the 50% reduction by 2050, the Council recommends approximately a 1% reduction by 2012 and an 11% reduction by 2020. For the 90% reduction scenario, the Council recommends a 3% reduction by 2012 and a 22% reduction 2020. These interim targets were based on a simple extrapolation assuming a linear rate of reduction between now and 2050. In providing these scenarios for your consideration, ICCAC approved 56 policy options from a large number of possibilities. There are more than enough options to reach the interim and final emission targets in both the 50% and 90% reduction scenarios. Direct costs and cost savings of these policy options were also evaluated with the help of The Center for Climate Strategies, who facilitated the process and provided technical assistance throughout the entire process, and who developed the Iowa Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast in close consultation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) and many Council and Sub-Committee members. About half of the policy options presented in this report will not only reduce GHG emissions but are highly cost-effective and will save Iowans money. Still other options may require significant investment but will create jobs, stimulate energy independence, and advance future regional or federal GHG programs.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Stable isotope compositions of mammoth teeth from Niederweningen, Switzerland: Implications for the Late Pleistocene climate, environment, and diet

Oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of well-preserved mammoth teeth from the Middle Wurmian (40-70 ka) peat layer of Niederweningen, the most important mammoth site in Switzerland, were analysed to reconstruct Late Pleistocene palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental conditions. Drinking water (delta(18)O values of approximately -12.3 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand were calculated front oxygen isotope compositions of mammoth tooth enamel apatite using a species-specific calibration for modern elephants. These delta(18)O(H2O) values reflect the mean oxygen isotope composition of the palaeo-precipitation and are similar to those directly measured for fate Pleistocene groundwater from aquifers in northern Switzerland and southern Germany. Using a present-day delta(18)O(H2)o-precipitation-air temperature relation for Switzerland, a mean annual air temperature (MAT) of around 4.3 +/- 2.1 degrees C can be calculated for the Middle Wurmian at this site. This MAT is in good agreement with palaeotemperature estimates on the basis of Middle Wurmian groundwater recharge temperatures and beetle assemblages. Hence, the climatic conditions in this region were around 4 degrees C cooler during the Middle Wurmian interstadial phase, around 45-50ka BP, than they are today. During this period the mammoths from Niederweningen lived in an open tundra-like, C(3) plant-dominated environment as indicated by enamel (delta(13)C values of -11.5 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand and pollen and macroplant fossils found in the embedding peat. The low variability of enamel delta(13)C and delta(18)O values from different mammoth teeth reflects similar environmental conditions and supports a relatively small time frame for the fossil assemblage. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Paleoenvironmental evolution of the Helvetic shallow-water carbonate platform near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, and its relationship with paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic change in the Tethys

Abstract:During my doctoral research, I focused on deciphering the interactions between sea-level and climate change during the Late Barremian-Early Aptian, their expression in the Tethys basin and in the Helvetic carbonate platform. The research highlights are summarized here in three points: In the Helvetic Alps, the transition between the Lower Schrattenkalk (Upper Barremian) and the Rawil Member (Lowermost Aptian) is characterized by a change from a predominantly photozoan to a heterozoan carbonate-producing system, which coincides in time with a general increase in detrital and nutrient input. The clay mineral record shows the appearance of kaolinite within the Rawil Member, whereas this mineral is absent from the uppermost Lower and lowermost Upper Schrattenkalk Members. This indicates the installation of a warmer and more humid climate during this time period. A negative peak in 513C is recorded at the top of the Lower Schrattenkalk Member, and correlates with the well-known negative excursion of -l%o occurring in other basins and dated as latest Barremian, thus confirming a latest Barremian and earliest Aptian age for the Lower Schrattenkalk and Rawil Members, respectively. Furthermore, a sequence stratigraphie framework has been defined for the Rawil Member, based on both the ecology of faunal and floral assemblages, and their palaeoenvironmental interpretation, as well as on the stacking pattern of limestone beds observed during field prospection. The presence of a sequence boundary is postulated near the top of the Lower Schrattenkalk Member, which is correlated with the earliest Aptian SbAl defined in Vercors (France). The SbAl is characterized by a maximum of proximal assemblages and by the disappearance of several benthic foraminiferal species. Within the Rawil Member itself, the stacking pattern and microfacies trends are interpreted to represent the TST of the first Aptian sequence. With regards to the pelagic setting in the Tethyan realm, I investigated the Gorgo a Cerbara section (central Italy). There, thin organic-rich layers occur episodically in pelagic carbonates of the upper Barremian portion of the Maiolica Formation. They are associated with high Corg:Ptot ratios, which indicate the presence of intermittent dysoxic to anoxic conditions. Coarse correlations are also observed between TOC, Ρ and biogenic silica contents, indicating links between Ρ availability, productivity, and organic matter preservation. The corresponding 813Ccarb and δ180 records remain, however, quite stable, indicating that these brief periods of enhanced TOC preservation did not have sufficient impact on the marine carbon household to deviate 6,3C records, and are probably not the consequence of major climate change. On the other hand, organic-rich layers become more frequent around the Barremian-Aptian boundary in both pelagic and hemi-pelagic environments (Gorgo a Cerbara and La Bédoule, France), which are correlated with negative excursions in 6l3Ccarb and 613Corg records. During the earliest Aptian, at Gorgo a Cerbara, the frequency of organic-rich intervals progressively increases and redox-sensitive trace-element enrichments become more frequent, until the highest TOC-enriched level just below the "Livello Selli", indicator of Oceanic Anoxic Event la (OAEla). The latter is associated with the well-known negative spike in 613Ccarb and S,3Corg records, a diminution in the δ,80 record interpreted as the consequence of a wanning interval, an important peak in Ρ accumulation and high Cor::Ptot ratios indicating the prevalence of anoxic conditions. The Selli Level (OAEla) documents a general cooling phase and coincides with maximum RSTE enrichments as well as high Corg:Ptot ratios, which confirm the importance of anoxic conditions during OAE1 a at this site.During the Early Aptian, environmental change on the platform is expressed by orbitolinids proliferation that may be induced by both climate change and sea-level rise. In the basin, the successive black shales horizons from the Late Barremian until the OAE la are interpreted as the progressive impact of palaeoenvironmental change probably linked to the formation of the Ontong- Java plate-basalt plateau.RésuméCe travail de thèse a permis d'investiguer les interactions entre les variations du niveau marin et les changements climatiques sur la plate-forme helvétique ainsi qu'en domaine pélagique à la limite Barrémien-Aptien (Crétacé).Dans les Alpes helvétiques, la limite Barrémien-Aptien est marquée par la transition du Schrattenkalk inférieur, caractérisé par des carbonates photozaires, au Membre de Rawil caractérisé par des carbonates héterozoaires. Cette transition est marquée par une arrivée massive d'éléments détritiques et un apport de nutriments ayant entraîné la prolifération de foraminifères agglutinés tels que les orbitolines. L'analyse des minéraux argileux indique l'apparition de la kaolinite durant le Membre de Rawil, interprétée comme l'installation d'un climat plus chaud et humide. Un pic négatif en 513C est enregistré au sommet du Schrattenkalk inférieur correspond à l'excursion négative de -1%0 bien connue en domaine pélagique et datée comme Barrémien terminal. Cette corrélation apporte un contrôle chronostratigraphique supplémentaire permettant de dater le Schrattenkalk inférieur du Barrémien sup. et le Membre de Rawil de l'Aptien inf. D'autre part, une étude stratigraphique, basée sur des observations de terrain et sur l'interprétation d'assemblages floristiques et faunistiques en terme de paléoenvironnement a permis de mettre en évidence une limite de séquence au sommet du Schrattenkalk inf., corrélable avec la SbAl définie dans le Vercors. Durant la mise en place du Membre de Rawil, l'évolution des microfaciès est interprétée comme le « Transgressive System Tract » de la première séquence aptienne.En domaine pélagique, de minces couches riches en matière organique (MO) apparaissent dès le Barrémien sup. dans la coupe de Gorgo a Cerbara (Italie). Elles sont associées à un ratio C:P élevé indiquant des conditions épisodiquement dysoxiques à anoxiques. De plus, une corrélation nette entre Carbone Organique Total (TOC), phosphore (P) et silice biogénique est observée correspondant à un lien entre Ρ disponible, productivité et préservation de la MO. Pourtant, dans le même temps, le ÔI3C et le δ1βΟ restent constants indiquant des conditions environnementales stables et un cycle du carbone non perturbé par la préservation de MO qui ne serait pas la conséquence d'un changement climatique global mais juste d'un effet local.Ala limite Barrémien-Aptien, en domaine hémi-pélagique (La Bédoule, France) et pélagique (Gorgo a Cerbara), les couches riches en MO sont plus fréquentes et plus épaisses, elles se sont déposées en même temps qu'un pic négatif en 513CCARB et ô13Coib probablement dû à un épisode volcanique. A l'Aptien inf. le TOC des niveaux riches en MO augmente progressivement en même temps que la teneur en éléments traces jusqu'au dernier enrichissement avant l'événement anoxique océanique la (OAE la) correspondant au « niveau critique inf. », indiquant des conditions anoxiques moins restreintes. Celui-ci est également caractérisé par le fameux pic négatif en Ô13C (C3), une diminution du δ180 interprétée comme un réchauffement, par un pic en Ρ et un ratio C:P élevé. L'OAE 1 a, quant à lui, enregistre un refroidissement et coïncide avec le maximum en éléments traces ainsi qu'un fort ratio C:P mettant en valeur l'importance des conditions anoxiques pendant 1ΌΑΕ la dans cette coupe alors qu'aucune perturbation n'est enregistrés à La Bédoule probablement à cause de conditions paléogéographiques locales.Durant l'Aptien inf., les changements environnementaux sur la plate-forme se marquent par la prolifération d'orbitolines due à un changement climatique et une hausse du niveau marin. En domaine profond, la succession de niveaux riches en MO du Barrémien sup. jusqu'à l'OAE la documente l'impact progressif de changements paléoenvironnementaux, probablement liés à la formation du plateau d'Ontong Java à l'ouest de l'océan Pacifique.

Climate oscillations and species interactions: large-scale congruence but regional differences in the phylogeographic structures of an alpine plant and its monophagous insect

Aim. To predict the fate of alpine interactions involving specialized species, using a monophagous beetle and its host-plant as a case study. Location. The Alps. Methods. We investigated genetic structuring of the herbivorous beetle Oreina gloriosa and its specific host-plant Peucedanum ostruthium. We used genome fingerprinting (in the insect and the plant) and sequence data (in the insect) to compare the distribution of the main gene pools in the two associated species and to estimate divergence time in the insect, a proxy for the temporal origin of the interaction. We quantified the similarity in spatial genetic structures by performing a Procrustes analysis, a tool from the shape theory. Finally, we simulated recolonization of an empty space analogous to the deglaciated Alps just after ice retreat by two lineages from two species showing unbalanced dependence, to examine how timing of the recolonization process, as well as dispersal capacities of associated species, could explain the observed pattern. Results. Contrasting with expectations based on their asymmetrical dependence, patterns in the beetle and plant were congruent at a large scale. Exceptions occurred at a regional scale in areas of admixture, matching known suture zones in Alpine plants. Simulations using a lattice-based model suggested these empirical patterns arose during or soon after recolonization, long after the estimated origin of the interaction c. 0.5 million years ago. Main conclusions. Species-specific interactions are scarce in alpine habitats because glacial cycles have limited opportunities for coevolution. Their fate, however, remains uncertain under climate change. Here we show that whereas most dispersal routes are paralleled at large scale, regional incongruence implies that the destinies of the species might differ under changing climate. This may be a consequence of the host-dependence of the beetle that locally limits the establishment of dispersing insects.

Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under changing climate in Finland

Selostus: Arviointi Suomen kasvintuotantopotentiaalin alueellisista riskeistä ja epävarmuuksista ilmaston muuttuessa

Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

Selostus: Ilmakehä-, sää- ja ilmastoskenaarioiden kehittäminen pohjoisille alueille

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.