Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Data mining techniques to support the classification of MV electricity customers

This paper describes a methodology that was developed for the classification of Medium Voltage (MV) electricity customers. Starting from a sample of data bases, resulting from a monitoring campaign, Data Mining (DM) techniques are used in order to discover a set of a MV consumer typical load profile and, therefore, to extract knowledge regarding to the electric energy consumption patterns. In first stage, it was applied several hierarchical clustering algorithms and compared the clustering performance among them using adequacy measures. In second stage, a classification model was developed in order to allow classifying new consumers in one of the obtained clusters that had resulted from the previously process. Finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge are presented and discussed.

Demand response programs definition supported by clustering and classification techniques

The growing importance and influence of new resources connected to the power systems has caused many changes in their operation. Environmental policies and several well know advantages have been made renewable based energy resources largely disseminated. These resources, including Distributed Generation (DG), are being connected to lower voltage levels where Demand Response (DR) must be considered too. These changes increase the complexity of the system operation due to both new operational constraints and amounts of data to be processed. Virtual Power Players (VPP) are entities able to manage these resources. Addressing these issues, this paper proposes a methodology to support VPP actions when these act as a Curtailment Service Provider (CSP) that provides DR capacity to a DR program declared by the Independent System Operator (ISO) or by the VPP itself. The amount of DR capacity that the CSP can assure is determined using data mining techniques applied to a database which is obtained for a large set of operation scenarios. The paper includes a case study based on 27,000 scenarios considering a diversity of distributed resources in a 33 bus distribution network.

Side information creation for efficient Wyner-Ziv video coding: Classifying and reviewing

Video coding technologies have played a major role in the explosion of large market digital video applications and services. In this context, the very popular MPEG-x and H-26x video coding standards adopted a predictive coding paradigm, where complex encoders exploit the data redundancy and irrelevancy to 'control' much simpler decoders. This codec paradigm fits well applications and services such as digital television and video storage where the decoder complexity is critical, but does not match well the requirements of emerging applications such as visual sensor networks where the encoder complexity is more critical. The Slepian Wolf and Wyner-Ziv theorems brought the possibility to develop the so-called Wyner-Ziv video codecs, following a different coding paradigm where it is the task of the decoder, and not anymore of the encoder, to (fully or partly) exploit the video redundancy. Theoretically, Wyner-Ziv video coding does not incur in any compression performance penalty regarding the more traditional predictive coding paradigm (at least for certain conditions). In the context of Wyner-Ziv video codecs, the so-called side information, which is a decoder estimate of the original frame to code, plays a critical role in the overall compression performance. For this reason, much research effort has been invested in the past decade to develop increasingly more efficient side information creation methods. This paper has the main objective to review and evaluate the available side information methods after proposing a classification taxonomy to guide this review, allowing to achieve more solid conclusions and better identify the next relevant research challenges. After classifying the side information creation methods into four classes, notably guess, try, hint and learn, the review of the most important techniques in each class and the evaluation of some of them leads to the important conclusion that the side information creation methods provide better rate-distortion (RD) performance depending on the amount of temporal correlation in each video sequence. It became also clear that the best available Wyner-Ziv video coding solutions are almost systematically based on the learn approach. The best solutions are already able to systematically outperform the H.264/AVC Intra, and also the H.264/AVC zero-motion standard solutions for specific types of content. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Processamento de imagem para determinação de distribuições granulométricas de gotas numa suspensão

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Infografia jornalística em Portugal: estudo de caso de dois diários e um semanário

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências da Comunicação (Jornalismo), 22 de Janeiro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

Automatic vehicle detection and classification

This paper presents a proposal for an automatic vehicle detection and classification (AVDC) system. The proposed AVDC should classify vehicles accordingly to the Portuguese legislation (vehicle height over the first axel and number of axels), and should also support profile based classification. The AVDC should also fulfill the needs of the Portuguese motorway operator, Brisa. For the classification based on the profile we propose:he use of Eigenprofiles, a technique based on Principal Components Analysis. The system should also support multi-lane free flow for future integration in this kind of environments.

Classification and staging of chronic liver disease from multimodal data

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is most of the time an asymptomatic, progressive, and ultimately potentially fatal disease. In this study, an automatic hierarchical procedure to stage CLD using ultrasound images, laboratory tests, and clinical records are described. The first stage of the proposed method, called clinical based classifier (CBC), discriminates healthy from pathologic conditions. When nonhealthy conditions are detected, the method refines the results in three exclusive pathologies in a hierarchical basis: 1) chronic hepatitis; 2) compensated cirrhosis; and 3) decompensated cirrhosis. The features used as well as the classifiers (Bayes, Parzen, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbor) are optimally selected for each stage. A large multimodal feature database was specifically built for this study containing 30 chronic hepatitis cases, 34 compensated cirrhosis cases, and 36 decompensated cirrhosis cases, all validated after histopathologic analysis by liver biopsy. The CBC classification scheme outperformed the nonhierachical one against all scheme, achieving an overall accuracy of 98.67% for the normal detector, 87.45% for the chronic hepatitis detector, and 95.71% for the cirrhosis detector.

Global and local detection of liver steatosis from ultrasound

Liver steatosis is a common disease usually associated with social and genetic factors. Early detection and quantification is important since it can evolve to cirrhosis. Steatosis is usually a diffuse liver disease, since it is globally affected. However, steatosis can also be focal affecting only some foci difficult to discriminate. In both cases, steatosis is detected by laboratorial analysis and visual inspection of ultrasound images of the hepatic parenchyma. Liver biopsy is the most accurate diagnostic method but its invasive nature suggest the use of other non-invasive methods, while visual inspection of the ultrasound images is subjective and prone to error. In this paper a new Computer Aided Diagnosis (CAD) system for steatosis classification and analysis is presented, where the Bayes Factor, obatined from objective intensity and textural features extracted from US images of the liver, is computed in a local or global basis. The main goal is to provide the physician with an application to make it faster and accurate the diagnosis and quantification of steatosis, namely in a screening approach. The results showed an overall accuracy of 93.54% with a sensibility of 95.83% and 85.71% for normal and steatosis class, respectively. The proposed CAD system seemed suitable as a graphical display for steatosis classification and comparison with some of the most recent works in the literature is also presented.

Data mining framework for fatty liver disease classification in ultrasound: a hybrid feature extraction paradigm

PURPOSE: Fatty liver disease (FLD) is an increasing prevalent disease that can be reversed if detected early. Ultrasound is the safest and ubiquitous method for identifying FLD. Since expert sonographers are required to accurately interpret the liver ultrasound images, lack of the same will result in interobserver variability. For more objective interpretation, high accuracy, and quick second opinions, computer aided diagnostic (CAD) techniques may be exploited. The purpose of this work is to develop one such CAD technique for accurate classification of normal livers and abnormal livers affected by FLD. METHODS: In this paper, the authors present a CAD technique (called Symtosis) that uses a novel combination of significant features based on the texture, wavelet transform, and higher order spectra of the liver ultrasound images in various supervised learning-based classifiers in order to determine parameters that classify normal and FLD-affected abnormal livers. RESULTS: On evaluating the proposed technique on a database of 58 abnormal and 42 normal liver ultrasound images, the authors were able to achieve a high classification accuracy of 93.3% using the decision tree classifier. CONCLUSIONS: This high accuracy added to the completely automated classification procedure makes the authors' proposed technique highly suitable for clinical deployment and usage.

The usefulness of ultrasound in the classification of chronic liver disease

Chronic Liver Disease is a progressive, most of the time asymptomatic, and potentially fatal disease. In this paper, a semi-automatic procedure to stage this disease is proposed based on ultrasound liver images, clinical and laboratorial data. In the core of the algorithm two classifiers are used: a k nearest neighbor and a Support Vector Machine, with different kernels. The classifiers were trained with the proposed multi-modal feature set and the results obtained were compared with the laboratorial and clinical feature set. The results showed that using ultrasound based features, in association with laboratorial and clinical features, improve the classification accuracy. The support vector machine, polynomial kernel, outperformed the others classifiers in every class studied. For the Normal class we achieved 100% accuracy, for the chronic hepatitis with cirrhosis 73.08%, for compensated cirrhosis 59.26% and for decompensated cirrhosis 91.67%.

Chronic liver disease staging classification based on ultrasound, clinical and laboratorial data

In this work the identification and diagnosis of various stages of chronic liver disease is addressed. The classification results of a support vector machine, a decision tree and a k-nearest neighbor classifier are compared. Ultrasound image intensity and textural features are jointly used with clinical and laboratorial data in the staging process. The classifiers training is performed by using a population of 97 patients at six different stages of chronic liver disease and a leave-one-out cross-validation strategy. The best results are obtained using the support vector machine with a radial-basis kernel, with 73.20% of overall accuracy. The good performance of the method is a promising indicator that it can be used, in a non invasive way, to provide reliable information about the chronic liver disease staging.

Diffuse liver disease classification from ultrasound surface characterization, clinical and laboratorial data

In this work liver contour is semi-automatically segmented and quantified in order to help the identification and diagnosis of diffuse liver disease. The features extracted from the liver contour are jointly used with clinical and laboratorial data in the staging process. The classification results of a support vector machine, a Bayesian and a k-nearest neighbor classifier are compared. A population of 88 patients at five different stages of diffuse liver disease and a leave-one-out cross-validation strategy are used in the classification process. The best results are obtained using the k-nearest neighbor classifier, with an overall accuracy of 80.68%. The good performance of the proposed method shows a reliable indicator that can improve the information in the staging of diffuse liver disease.

Fatty liver characterization and classification by ultrasound

Steatosis, also known as fatty liver, corresponds to an abnormal retention of lipids within the hepatic cells and reflects an impairment of the normal processes of synthesis and elimination of fat. Several causes may lead to this condition, namely obesity, diabetes, or alcoholism. In this paper an automatic classification algorithm is proposed for the diagnosis of the liver steatosis from ultrasound images. The features are selected in order to catch the same characteristics used by the physicians in the diagnosis of the disease based on visual inspection of the ultrasound images. The algorithm, designed in a Bayesian framework, computes two images: i) a despeckled one, containing the anatomic and echogenic information of the liver, and ii) an image containing only the speckle used to compute the textural features. These images are computed from the estimated RF signal generated by the ultrasound probe where the dynamic range compression performed by the equipment is taken into account. A Bayes classifier, trained with data manually classified by expert clinicians and used as ground truth, reaches an overall accuracy of 95% and a 100% of sensitivity. The main novelties of the method are the estimations of the RF and speckle images which make it possible to accurately compute textural features of the liver parenchyma relevant for the diagnosis.

Adaptive mutations in bacteria: high rate and small effects

Evolution by natural selection is driven by the continuous generation of adaptive mutations. We measured the genomic mutation rate that generates beneficial mutations and their effects on fitness in Escherichia coli under conditions in which the effect of competition between lineages carrying different beneficial mutations is minimized. We found a rate on the order of 10–5 per genome per generation, which is 1000 times as high as previous estimates, and a mean selective advantage of 1%. Such a high rate of adaptive evolution has implications for the evolution of antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity.