The trasition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes: the case of Brazil

This dissertation evaluates macroeconomic management in Brazil from 1994 to the present, with particular focus on exchange rate policy. It points out that while Brazil's Real Plan succeeded in halting the hyperinflation that had reached more than 2000 percent in 1993, it also caused significant real appreciation of the exchange rate situation that was only made worse by the extremely high interest rates and ensuing bout of severe financial crises in the intemational arena. By the end of 1998, the accumulation of internai and externai imbalances led the authorities to drop foreign exchange controls and allow the currency to float. In spite of some initial scepticism, the flexible rate regime cum inflation target proved to work well. Inflation was kept under control; the current account position improved significantly, real interest rates fell and GDP growth resumed. Thus, while great challenges still lie ahead, the recent successes bestow some optimism on the well functioning of this exchange rate regime. The Brazilian case suggests that successful transition from one foreign exchange system to another, particularly during financial crisis, does not depend only on one variable be it fiscal or monetary. In reality, it depends on whole set of co-ordinated policies aimed at resuming price stability with as little exchange rate and output volatility as possible.

Dinâmica não-linear e sustentabilidade da dívida pública brasileira

This paper contributes to the debate on whether the Brazilian public debt is sustainable or not in the long run by considering threshold effects on the Brazilian Budget Deficit. Using data from 1947 to 1999 and a threshold autoregressive model, we find evidence of delays in fiscal stabilization. As suggested in Alesina (1991), delayed stabilizations reflect the existence of political constraints blocking deficit cuts, which are relaxed only when the budget deficit reaches a sufficiently high level, deemed to be unsustainable. In particular, our results suggest that, in the absence of seignorage, only when the increase in the budget deficit reaches 1.74% of the GDP will fiscal authorities intervene to reduce the deficit. If seignorage is allowed, the threshold increases to 2.2%, suggesting that seignorage makes government more tolerant to fiscal imbalances.

O papel dos fundos soberanos na economia mundial

Este trabalho faz uma resenha da literatura sobre Fundos Soberanos, destacando tópicos como suas origens, objetivos, impactos de seus investimentos, transparência e atuação destes instrumentos governamentais na recente crise financeira global. Analisa ainda a criação do Fundo Soberano Brasileiro buscando ressaltar seus prós e contras. Ressaltamos a necessidade de se observar superávits consistentes em Conta Corrente no Balanço de Pagamentos para justificar a constituição destes instrumentos. A simples existência de elevados volumes de reservas internacionais não serve como prerrogativa para sua criação, devendo-se analisar a sustentabilidade e volatilidade das fontes das divisas. Ainda, destacamos que os Fundos Soberanos são veículos de investimentos governamentais cuja relevância no mercado financeiro não justifica os temores que possam causar desequilíbrios relevantes, apesar das críticas e questionamentos em relação à falta de transparência na divulgação de informações acerca de seus investimentos.

Por que as reformas permanecem?: a trajetória gradualista de mudanças no setor de infraestrutura rodoviária no Brasil entre 1985-2010

Esta tese oferece uma explicação para a existência de políticas governamentais que não alcançam estabilidade após conjunturas críticas que afetam seu equilíbrio, enfocando a gestão da infraestrutura rodoviária no Brasil. A política do setor entrou em crise financeira e institucional em meados da década de 70, que se acentuou na década de 80, pressionando os Governos democráticos a perseguiram uma agenda de reformas que envolviam a revisão dos mecanismos de financiamento e investimento públicos, a mudança estrutural dos órgãos e competências do setor e a parceria com o mercado, através de políticas de concessões rodoviárias. Através de estudos de caso dos Governos da Nova República entre os anos de 1985 e 2010, a pesquisa responde o porquê de as reformas intentadas no setor apresentarem uma seqüência de falhas e sucesso parciais, proporcionando novos desequilíbrios e tentativas de reforma. Por intermédio do referencial teórico do institucionalismo, demonstramos que as transformações institucionais ocorridas no Brasil a partir do fim da década de 70 contribuíram para a configuração de um setor mais pluralista e sob menor autonomia dos órgãos setoriais, levando a contradições institucionais com as quais os sucessivos Governos lidaram sob dilemas estratégicos entre manter a governabilidade política e perseguir um bom desempenho. Esta interação entre um setor competitivo e estratégias políticas conduziu a um equilíbrio desarticulado, que sacrifica o desempenho setorial e demanda permanentes agendas de reformas.

Sovereignty, exchange rate and the Euro crisis

This paper presents an interpretation of the European crisis based on the balance of payments imbalances within the Eurozone and highlighting the role of the “internal” real exchange rates as a primary cause of the crisis. It explores the structural contradictions that turn the Euro into a “foreign currency” for each individual Eurozone country. These contradictions imply the inability of national central banks to monetize the public and private debts, which makes the Euro crisis a sovereign crisis similar to those typical of emerging countries, but whose solution presents additional obstacles.

Especulative (sic) attack on exchange rate target zone regime : the uncertainty case

We present a continuous time target zone model of speculative attacks. Contrary to most of the literature that considers the certainty case, i.e., agents know for sure the Central Bank behavior in the future, we build uncertainty into the madel in two different ways. First, we consider the case in whicb the leveI of reserves at which the central bank lets the regime collapse is uncertain. Alternatively, we ana1ize the case in which, with some probability, the government may cbange its policy reducing the initially positive trend in domestic credito In both cases, contrary to the case of a fixed exchange rate regime, speculators face a cost of launching a tentative attack that may not succeed. Such cost induces a delay and may even prevent its occurrence. At the time of the tentative attack, the exchange rate moves either discretely up, if the attack succeeds, or down, if it fails. The remlts are consistent with the fact that, typically, an attack involves substantial profits and losses for the speculators. In particular, if agents believed that the government will control fiscal imbalances in the future, or alternatively, if they believe the trend in domestic credit to be temporary, the attack is postponed even in the presence of a signal of an imminent collapse. Finally, we aIso show that the timing of a speculative attack increases with the width of the target zone.

Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Análise da estabilidade genética de células-tronco mesenquimais humanas

Human multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs), also known as mesenchymal stem cells, have become an important and attractive therapeutic tool since they are easily isolated and cultured, have in vitro expansion potential, substantial plasticity and secrete bioactive molecules that exert trophic effects. The human umbilical cord as a cell source for cell therapy will help to avoid several ethical, political, religious and technical issues. One of the main issues with SC lines from different sources, mainly those of embryonic origin, is the possibility of chromosomal alterations and genomic instability during in vitro expansion. Cells isolated from one umbilical cord exhibited a rare balanced paracentric inversion, likely a cytogenetic constitutional alteration, karyotype: 46,XY,inv(3)(p13p25~26). Important genes related to cancer predisposition and others involved in DNA repair are located in 3p25~26. Titanium is an excellent biomaterial for bone-implant integration; however, the use can result in the generation of particulate debris that can accumulate in the tissues adjacent to the prosthesis, in the local bone marrow, in the lymph nodes, liver and spleen. Subsequently may elicit important biological responses that aren´t well studied. In this work, we have studied the genetic stability of MSC isolated from the umbilical cord vein during in vitro expansion, after the cryopreservation, and under different concentrations and time of exposition to titanium microparticles. Cells were isolated, in vitro expanded, demonstrated capacity for osteogenic, adipogenic and chondrogenic differentiation and were evaluated using flow cytometry, so they met the minimum requirements for characterization as MSCs. The cells were expanded under different concentrations and time of exposition to titanium microparticles. The genetic stability of MSCs was assessed by cytogenetic analysis, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and analysis of micronucleus and other nuclear alterations (CBMN). The cells were able to internalize the titanium microparticles, but MSCs preserve their morphology, differentiation capacity and surface marker expression profiles. Furthermore, there was an increase in the genomic instability after long time of in vitro expansion, and this instability was greater when cells were exposed to high doses of titanium microparticles that induced oxidative stress. It is necessary always assess the risks/ benefits of using titanium in tissue therapy involving MSCs, considering the biosafety of the use of bone regeneration using titanium and MSCs. Even without using titanium, it is important that the therapeutic use of such cells is based on analyzes that ensure quality, security and cellular stability, with the standardization of quality control programs appropriate. In conclusion, it is suggested that cytogenetic analysis, FISH analysis and the micronucleus and other nuclear alterations are carried out in CTMH before implanting in a patient

Parâmetros citogenéticos de espécies comerciais de carangidae (perciformes), com vistas a sua empregabilidade na conservação biológica e piscicultura marinha

Worldwide, families Carangidae and Rachycentridae represent one of the groups most important commercial fish, used for food, and great potential for marine aquaculture. However, the genetic bases that can underpin the future cultivation of these species, cytogenetic between these aspects are very weak. The chromosomal patterns have provided basic data for the exploration of biotechnological processes aimed at handling chromosomal genetic improvement, such as induction of polyploidy, androgenesis and ginogenesis, as well as obtaining monosex stocks and interspecific hybridizations. This paper presents a comprehensive cytogenetic survey in 10 species, seven of the family Carangidae and the monotypic family Rachycentridae. Classical cytogenetic analysis and in situ mapping of multigene sequences were employed, and additionally for the genus Selene and morphotypes of Caranx lugubris, comparisons were made using geometric morphometrics. In general, conservative species exhibit a marked chromosome number (2n=48). Although present in large part, different karyotypic form, retain many characteristics typical of chromosomal Order Perciformes, the high number of elements monobrachyal, Ag-NORs/18S rDNA sites and heterochromatin simply reduced, preferably centromeric. The main mechanisms involved in karyotypic diversification are the pericentric inversions, with secondary action of centric fusions. In addition to physical mapping and chromosome detail for the species are presented and discussed patterns of intra-and interspecific diversity, cytotaxonomic markers. This data set provides a better understanding of these patterns caryoevolutyonary groups and conditions for the development of protocols based on Biotechnology for chromosomal manipulation Atlantic these species

Processo biotecnológico voltado a produção de estoques poliploides do camarão-branco litopenaeus vannamei (decapoda, penaeidae)

without practical results so far. Protocols used in biotechnological cultured aquatic organisms aimed at increasing growth rates and disease resistance, have been studied and perfected. Among the available techniques, the application of chromosomal manipulation, although still nascent, is presented as a tool aimed at mitigating ecological and economical issues in shrimp farming. The polyploidization artificial method already employed in fish and shellfish, has been widely researched for use in farmed shrimp. Some limitations of this method of expansion in shrimp refer to a better knowledge of cytogenetic aspects, the level of sexual dimorphism and performance in growing conditions. To contribute on some of these issues, the present study aimed to characterize cytogenetic species Litopenaeus vannamei (Decapoda) and Artemia franciscana (Anostraca), analyze the effectiveness of methods for detection of ploidy, through the use of flow cytometry in processes of induction polyploidy cold thermal shock at different stages of development of newly fertilized eggs. Additionally, aimed also the qualitative and quantitative comparison of larval development between diploid and polyploid organisms, besides the identification of sexual dimorphism in L. vannamei, through geometric morphometrics. The results provide information relevant to the improvement and widespread use of biotechnological methods applied toward national productivity in shrimp farming

Transcriptoma diferencial entre células-tronco mesenquimais humanas jovens e senescentes

Human mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) are powerful sources for cell therapy in regenerative medicine. The long time cultivation can result in replicative senescence or can be related to the emergence of chromosomal alterations responsible for the acquisition of tumorigenesis features in vitro. In this study, for the first time, the expression profile of MSC with a paracentric chromosomal inversion (MSC/inv) was compared to normal karyotype (MSC/n) in early and late passages. Furthermore, we compared the transcriptome of each MSC in early passages with late passages. MSC used in this study were obtained from the umbilical vein of three donors, two MSC/n and one MSC/inv. After their cryopreservation, they have been expanded in vitro until reached senescence. Total RNA was extracted using the RNeasy mini kit (Qiagen) and marked with the GeneChip ® 3 IVT Express Kit (Affymetrix Inc.). Subsequently, the fragmented aRNA was hybridized on the microarranjo Affymetrix Human Genome U133 Plus 2.0 arrays (Affymetrix Inc.). The statistical analysis of differential gene expression was performed between groups MSC by the Partek Genomic Suite software, version 6.4 (Partek Inc.). Was considered statistically significant differences in expression to p-value Bonferroni correction ˂.01. Only signals with fold change ˃ 3.0 were included in the list of differentially expressed. Differences in gene expression data obtained from microarrays were confirmed by Real Time RT-PCR. For the interpretation of biological expression data were used: IPA (Ingenuity Systems) for analysis enrichment functions, the STRING 9.0 for construction of network interactions; Cytoscape 2.8 to the network visualization and analysis bottlenecks with the aid of the GraphPad Prism 5.0 software. BiNGO Cytoscape pluggin was used to access overrepresentation of Gene Ontology categories in Biological Networks. The comparison between senescent and young at each group of MSC has shown that there is a difference in the expression parttern, being higher in the senescent MSC/inv group. The results also showed difference in expression profiles between the MSC/inv versus MSC/n, being greater when they are senescent. New networks were identified for genes related to the response of two of MSC over cultivation time. Were also identified genes that can coordinate functional categories over represented at networks, such as CXCL12, SFRP1, xvi EGF, SPP1, MMP1 e THBS1. The biological interpretation of these data suggests that the population of MSC/inv has different constitutional characteristics, related to their potential for differentiation, proliferation and response to stimuli, responsible for a distinct process of replicative senescence in MSC/inv compared to MSC/n. The genes identified in this study are candidates for biomarkers of cellular senescence in MSC, but their functional relevance in this process should be evaluated in additional in vitro and/or in vivo assays

Mapeamento cromossômico de genes ribossomais em espécies estuarinas da família Gerreidae Identificação de uniformidade cariotípica e sua empregabilidade com fins biotecnológicos - REPROGEN

Perciformes are dominant in the marine environment, characterized as the largest and most diverse fish group. Some families, as Gerreidae, popularly known as silver jennies, carapebas, or mojarras have a high economic potential to marine fish farming, natural explotation and game fishing. Genetic information of these species are of fundamental importance for their management and production. Despite exist over 13,000 marine fish species described, only 2% were cytogenetically analyzed and less than 1% have some reproductive characteristics known. Induced breeding, cytogenetic characterization and cryopreservation of gametes, represent important areas in applied fish studies. In this project cytogenetic analyzes were performed to acess genetic aspects of Gerreidae species, distributed in coastal and estuarine regions of Northeast Brazil. Different methods for identifying chromosomal regions were employed using conventional techniques (Ag-NORs, C-banding), staining with base-specific fluorochromes (DAPI-CMA3), and physical mapping of ribosomal genes 18S and 5S rDNA, through hybridization in situ with fluorescent probes (FISH). The six species analyzed showed remarkable chromosome conservatism. The 18S and 5S ribosomal genes when analyzed in phylogenetic perspective demonstrate varied evolutionary dynamics, suggesting ocurrence of stasis process in some groups and greater dynamism in others. Double FISH with 18S and 5S probes showed both how efficient cytotaxonomic markers in the homogeneous karyotypes of this group of species. The karyotypic pattern identified in addition to the evolutionary aspects of karyotype, are suggestive of existence of low potential of post-zygotic barrier, prompting further research to prospect for artificial interspecific hybridization of these species of commercial importance

Evaluation of the genotoxicity of cellulose nanofibers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Investigação das alterações citogenéticas em pacientes pediátricos com leucemia linfóide aguda do Rio Grande do Norte

Leukemia is a heterogeneous group of hematologic malignancies that result from partial or total transformation of the blast cells. The Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) is the most common malignancy in childhood, especially in male, Caucasian children younger than 14 years. Several criteria are adopted to classify ALL, including the cell morphology, cytochemistry, immunophenotyping and cytogenetic analysis. Cytogenetic studies allow a more detailed analysis to detect chromosomal abnormalities of leukemic cells. These modifications will determine the diagnosis, classification, stage characterization, remission assessment and prognosis. In this study were evaluated 30 patients, aged from four months to seventeen years, of both sexes and various ethnicities. The age distribution showed that 67% of patients had between one and ten years (with mean age of XX years old), the most prevalent ethnic was Caucasian (50%) and 57% were males. According to immunophenotype, 93% of patients had B-cells progenitor ALL and 7% early lineage T. Considering the total studied population, the most frequent medical findings were lymphadenopathy (37%), hepatomegaly (77%) and splenomegaly (70%), where one patient could present more than one of these medical findings. Regarding the CBC, the majority of patients had hemoglobin below 10 g / dl (73%), leukocyte count less than 10.000/μL (60%) and platelet count below 150.000/μL (83%). Chromosomal abnormalities were observed in 64% of all patients, where hyperdiploidy was the most common numerical change (67%), followed by hypodiploid (33%). All these data are in agreement with the literature. Moreover, complexes structural and/or number changes not yet described in literature were observed, which indicated poor prognosis. Finally, we concluded that this study demonstrated the importance of cytogenetic study in the diagnosis and identification of prognostic factors in pediatric patients with ALL in Rio Grande do Norte. The results obtained in this study are extremely useful and emphasizes that surveys of this nature must be conducted more frequently in our state

Equilíbrio ácido-base e hidroeletrolítico em eqüinos com cólica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)