The digital economy for structural change and equality

Includes bibliography.

Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the health sector in the Caribbean

Climate change affects the fundamental bases of good human health, which are clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. Climate change is known to impact health through three climate dimensions: extreme heat, natural disasters, and infections and diseases. The temporal and spatial climatic changes that will affect the biology and ecology of vectors and intermediate hosts are likely to increase the risks of disease transmission. The greatest effect of climate change on disease transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission typically occurs. Caribbean countries are marked by unique geographical and geological features. When combined with their physical, infrastructural development, these features make them relatively more prone to negative impacts from changes in climatic conditions. The increased variability of climate associated with slow-moving tropical depressions has implications for water quality through flooding as well as hurricanes. Caribbean countries often have problems with water and sanitation. These problems are exacerbated whenever there is excess rainfall, or no rainfall. The current report aims to prepare the Caribbean to respond better to the anticipated impact of climate change on the health sector, while fostering a subregional Caribbean approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. It provides a major advance on the analytical and contextual issues surrounding the impact of climate change on health in the Caribbean by focusing on the vector-borne and waterborne diseases that are anticipated to be impacted directly by climate change. The ultimate goal is to quantify both the direct and indirect costs associated with each disease, and to present adaptation strategies that can address these health concerns effectively to benefit the populations of the Caribbean.

The economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Paradoxes and challenges. Overview for 2014

Foreword by Alicia Bárcena.

The economics of climate change in the Caribbean

The present volume captures the results of the studies conducted during Phase 2 of the RECCC project to date. Chapter 1 provides the contextual framework within which the assessments were conducted and Chapter 2 focuses on the emissions scenarios as set out by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of the economic assessments of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural, coastal and marine, energy and transportation, health, freshwater resources and tourism sectors in the Caribbean subregion are presented in Chapters 3 to 9, respectively. The report concludes with an examination of adaptation strategies and key policy recommendations for policymakers, in Chapter 10.

Report of the roundtable: towards development of a climate change policy for the Caribbean

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, in collaboration with the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Secretariat through the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), convened a meeting of technical experts working in the field of economics and climate change. The main objective of the meeting was to present the results of studies that were conducted under the project, “Understanding the Potential Economic Impact of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean”. These presentations were expected to sensitize the experts to the costs of the impacts of climate change in different development scenarios and also present the costs of adaptative and mitigative strategies to 2100. It was expected that discussions of the presentation would inform the preparation of a subregional climate change policy through an examination of the existing Regional Climate Change Framework for Building Resilience. Discussions were also intended to focus on updating participants on the upcoming negotiations for the new Kyoto Protocol that would take place in Mexico in November 2010. The meeting took the form of presentations by relevant experts followed by discussions. Each discussion segment resulted in recommendations that would inform development of the policy. The meeting was held at the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, on 30 June 2010.

Cerrado vegetation and global change: the role of functional types, resource availability and disturbance in regulating plant community responses to rising CO2 levels and climate warming

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Impact of gestational diabetes and lactational insulin replacement on structure and secretory function of offspring rat ventral prostate

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The increase of dairy intake is the main dietary factor associated with reduction of body weight in overweight adults after lifestyle change program

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation’s water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. The key points below briefly summarize the chapters in this report and represent underlying assumptions needed to address the many impacts of climate change.

The Impact of Software Evolution on Code Coverage Information

Many tools and techniques for addressing software maintenance problems rely on code coverage information. Often, this coverage information is gathered for a specific version of a software system, and then used to perform analyses on subsequent versions of that system without being recalculated. As a software system evolves, however, modifications to the software alter the software’s behavior on particular inputs, and code coverage information gathered on earlier versions of a program may not accurately reflect the coverage that would be obtained on later versions. This discrepancy may affect the success of analyses dependent on code coverage information. Despite the importance of coverage information in various analyses, in our search of the literature we find no studies specifically examining the impact of software evolution on code coverage information. Therefore, we conducted empirical studies to examine this impact. The results of our studies suggest that even relatively small modifications can greatly affect code coverage information, and that the degree of impact of change on coverage may be difficult to predict.

Homogeneity assessment of a station climate series (1933-2005) in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo: instruments change and urbanization effects

This work assessed homogeneity of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) weather station climate series, using various statistical techniques. The record from this target station is one of the longest in Brazil, having commenced in 1933 with observations of precipitation, and temperatures and other variables later in 1936. Thus, it is one of the few stations in Brazil with enough data for long-term climate variability and climate change studies. There is, however, a possibility that its data may have been contaminated by some artifacts over time. Admittedly, there was an intervention on the observations in 1958, with the replacement of instruments, for which the size of impact has not been yet evaluated. The station transformed in the course of time from rural to urban, and this may also have influenced homogeneity of the observations and makes the station less representative for climate studies over larger spatial scales. Homogeneity of the target station was assessed applying both absolute, or single station tests, and tests relatively to regional climate, in annual scale, regarding daily precipitation, relative humidity, maximum (TMax), minimum (TMin), and wet bulb temperatures. Among these quantities, only precipitation does not exhibit any inhomogeneity. A clear signal of change of instruments in 1958 was detected in the TMax and relative humidity data, the latter certainly because of its strong dependence on temperature. This signal is not very clear in TMin, but it presents non-climatic discontinuities around 1953 and around 1970. A significant homogeneity break is found around 1990 for TMax and wet bulb temperature. The discontinuities detected after 1958 may have been caused by urbanization, as the observed warming trend in the station is considerably greater than that corresponding to regional climate.

Dental health in Northern Chile's Atacama oases: Evaluating the Middle Horizon (AD 500-1000) impact on local diet

As one of the few areas apt for horticulture in Northern Chile's arid landscape, the prehistory of the Atacama oases is deeply enmeshed with that of the inter-regional networks that promoted societal development in the south central Andes. During the Middle Horizon (AD 5001000), local populations experienced a cultural apex associated with a substantial increase in inter-regional interaction, population density, and quantity and quality of mortuary assemblages. Here, we test if this cultural peak affected dietary practices equally among the distinct local groups of this period. We examine caries prevalence and the degree of occlusal wear in four series recovered from three cemeteries. Our results show a reduction in the prevalence of caries for males among an elite subsample from Solcor 3 and the later Coyo 3 cemeteries. Dental wear tends to increase over time with the Late Middle Horizon/Late Intermediate Period cemetery of Quitor 6 showing a higher average degree of wear. When considered in concert with archaeological information, we concluded that the Middle Horizon was marked by dietary variability wherein some populations were able to obtain better access to protein sources (e.g., camelid meat). Not all members of Atacameno society benefited from this, as we note that this dietary change only affected men. Our results suggest that the benefits brought to the San Pedro oases during the Middle Horizon were not equally distributed among local groups and that social status, relationship to the Tiwanaku polity, and interment in particular cemeteries affected dietary composition. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2012. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Correlates of change in self-perceived oral health among older adults in Brazil Findings from the Health, Well-Being and Aging Study

Background. Identifying changes in the oral health status of older populations, and their predictors and explanations, is necessary for public health planning. The authors assessed patterns of change in oral health-related quality of life in a large cohort of older adults in Brazil during a five-year period and evaluated associations between baseline characteristics and those changes. Methods. The sample consisted of 747 older people enrolled in a Brazilian cohort study called the Health, Well-Being and Aging (Saude, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento [SABE]) Study. Trained examiners measured participants' self-perceived oral health by using the General Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI). The authors calculated changes in the overall GOHAI score and in the scores for each of the GOHAI's three dimensions individually by subtracting the baseline score from the score at follow-up. A positive difference indicated improvement in oral health, a negative difference indicated a decline and a difference of zero indicated no change. Results. The authors found that 48.56 percent of the participants experienced a decline in oral health and 33.48 percent experienced an improvement. Participants with 16 or more missing teeth and eight or more years of education were more likely to have an improvement in total GOHAI score. Deterioration was more likely to occur among those with two or more diseases. Improvement and decline in GOHAI functional scores were related to the number of missing teeth. The authors found no significant model for the change in the psychosocial score, and Self-rated general health was the only variable related to both improvement and decline in pain or discomfort scores. Conclusions. The authors observed a bidirectional change in self-perceived oral health, with deterioration predominating. The strongest predictor of improvement in the total GOHAI score was the number of missing teeth, whereas the number of diseases was the strongest predictor of deterioration. Clinical Implications. Dental professionals and policymakers need to know the directions of change in older adults' oral health to establish treatment priorities and evaluate the impact of services directed at this population.

Impact of urban atmospheric environment on hospital admissions in the elderly

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of intra-urban atmospheric conditions on circulatory and respiratory diseases in elder adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional study based on data from 33,212 hospital admissions in adults over 60 years in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2003 to 2007. The association between atmospheric variables from Congonhas airport and bioclimatic index, Physiological Equivalent Temperature, was analyzed according to the district's socioenvironmental profile. Descriptive statistical analysis and regression models were used. RESULTS: There was an increase in hospital admissions due to circulatory diseases as average and lowest temperatures decreased. The likelihood of being admitted to the hospital increased by 12% with 1 degrees C decrease in the bioclimatic index and with 1 degrees C increase in the highest temperatures in the group with lower socioenvironmental conditions. The risk of admission due to respiratory diseases increased with inadequate air quality in districts with higher socioenvironmental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between morbidity and climate variables and the comfort index varied in different groups and diseases. Lower and higher temperatures increased the risk of hospital admission in the elderly. Districts with lower socioenvironmental conditions showed greater adverse health impacts.