The political economy of sovereign debt

This dissertation examines international lending arrangements between a competitive foreign investor and a less-developed country. Given that the benefits and costs of borrowing are distributed unequally across society, it is of interest to examine the conditions under which borrowing occurs and how the borrowed funds are allocated. Three theoretical models are developed to consider optimal lending arrangements in the presence of sovereign risk. The models show how a society's level and distribution of wealth influences its access to loans and the terms of the loan agreements. Optimal loan contracts are established, which place either a debt ceiling or a debt floor on the amount of the loan that, will be offered. ^

Essays on the political economy of the Dominican reform process

This dissertation provides an analytical framework to study the political economy of policy reform in the Dominican Republic during the nineties. Based on a country study, I develop two theoretical models that replicate the mechanisms of policy approval in developing countries with weak democracies. The first model considers a pro-reform President who submits a tariff bill to an anti-reform Congress dominated by the opposition party. In between, two opposing lobbies try to get their favored policy approved. Lobbies act as Stackelberg leaders vis a vis a weak President. The behavior of the Congress is determined exogenously while the lobbies act strategically pursuing the approval of the reform bill and indirectly affecting the President's decision. I show that in such a setting external agents like the Press play an important role in the decision-making process of the political actors. ^ The second model presents a similar framework. However, the President, who is a Stackelberg leader, is allowed only two choices, total reform or status-quo. I show how a lobby reacts to an increase in its rival's or its own size. These reactions depend on the President's level of commitment to the reform. Finally, I discuss the effect of variations in the size of the lobbies on the President's choice. The model suitably explains real events that took place in the Dominican Republic in the mid-nineties. ^

The political economy of poverty alleviation strategies. The initiative for heavily indebted poor countries in Bolivia: More of the same

In the year 2000, approximately 1.1 billion people lived in extreme poverty while developed countries spent US$600 billion a year on defense. The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative is a recent component of a larger poverty reduction strategy supported by the International Financial Institutions, as well as many developed and developing countries. By implementing lessons of the past fifty years, this program attempts to diminish misery around the globe. As such, it provides debt relief while seeking to enable the poorest countries to simultaneously attain sustainable debt and promote human development. Interest in poverty reduction around the globe reemerged in the 1990s. This study contributes directly to this recent effort by presenting a nuanced approach that builds on the stepping-stones generated by other poverty scholars. To fulfill its goal, this investigation applies a political economy framework. Within this framework, the author conducts an actor-specific analysis. This dissertation addresses the following question: How do domestic and international actors respond to the implementation of poverty alleviation strategies? The author assumes actors desire to maximize their utility calculation and suggests these calculations are based on the player's motivations and external influences. Based on their motivations, the external influences, and the initiative's guidelines, each actor develops a set of expectations. To fulfill those expectations, stake holders utilize one or several strategies. Finally, the actors' ability to achieve their expectations determines each player's assessment of the initiative. The framework described is applied in an in-depth, actor-specific analysis of the HIPC in Bolivia. Bolivia's National Revolution represents the country's first attempt at reducing poverty. Since then, all governments have taken specific steps to combat poverty at the local and national levels. The Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) is one of the most recent macro strategies of this kind. The case study demonstrated that three factors (national ownership, effective sponsorship and the local context) determine the success levels of poverty reduction strategies from abroad. In addition, the investigation clearly shows that poverty reduction is not the sole motivation in the implementation of poverty alleviation strategies. All actors, however, share the dream of poverty reduction.

The political economy of inequality and growth: Essays on sovereign debt, democracy and saving

This dissertation addresses three issues in the political economy of growth literature. The first study empirically tests the hypothesis that income inequality influences the size of a country's sovereign debt for a sample of developing countries for the period 1970–1990. The argument examined is that governments tend to yield to popular pressures to engage in redistributive policies, partially financed by foreign borrowing. Facing increased risk of default, international creditors limit the credit they extend, with the result that borrowing countries invest less and grow at a slower pace. The findings do not seem to support the negative relationship between inequality and sovereign debt, as there is evidence of increases in multilateral, countercyclical flows until the mid 1980s in Latin America. The hypothesis would hold for the period 1983–1990. Debt flows and levels seem to be positively correlated with growth as expected. ^ The second study empirically investigates the hypothesis that pronounced levels of inequality lead to unconsolidated democracies. We test the existence of a nonmonotonic relationship between inequality and democracy for a sample of Latin American countries for the period 1970–2000, where democracy appears to consolidate at some intermediate level of inequality. We find that the nonmonotonic relationship holds using instrumental variables methods. Bolivia seems to be a case of unconsolidated democracy. The positive relationship between per capita income and democracy disappears once fixed effects are introduced. ^ The third study explores the nonlinear relationship between per capita income and private saving levels in Latin America. Several estimation methods are presented; however, only the estimation of a dynamic specification through a state-of-the-art general method of moments estimator yields consistent estimates with increased efficiency. Results support the hypothesis that income positively affects private saving, while system GMM reveals nonlinear effects at income levels that exceed the ones included in this sample for the period 1960–1994. We also find that growth, government dissaving, and tightening of credit constraints have a highly significant and positive effect on private saving. ^

The relationship between a retention program and the persistence and graduation rates of first-generation low-income students at an urban, public university

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between participation in a retention program designed to promote academic and social integration and the persistence rates of first generation, low-income college students at an urban, public multiethnic university. Archival data were collected from the university’s Office of Institutional Research and the retention program office and included SAT/ACT scores, GPA, gender, ethnicity, and program participation data. A total of 292 first-generation, low-income students who were admitted to the university in the summer of 1999 were identified for the study. A group of 166 students were selected for the comparison group because they had not participated in the retention program; 126 students had participated in the retention program. ^ Three major research questions guided this study: (a) Are there differences in persistence rates and other academic characteristics of underprepared, low-income, first generation college students who participate and do not participate in the retention program?; (b) Does involvement in the retention program predict student persistence of first generation low-income, underprepared students?, and (c) Can predictors of GPA be identified for students in the retention program using program and descriptive variables? ^ A series of logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the relationship between various retention services and the persistence and graduation rates of participants. The results showed that there were statistically significant relationships between participation and non-participation in the retention program and having higher GPAs and higher graduation and persistence rates. Of the four program features, participation in tutoring, workshops, and social events were found to be predictors of graduation. College GPA was also found to be a predictor of graduation for all students. The results also showed that women were more likely to graduate than men.^

Innovating from the War Economy: Formal, Informal, and Illicit Economic Activities of the Military in Colombia

Over the last decade, the Colombian military has successfully rolled back insurgent groups, cleared and secured conflict zones, and enabled the extraction of oil and other key commodity exports. As a result, official policies of both the Uribe and Santos governments have promoted the armed forces to participate to an unprecedented extent in economic activities intended to consolidate the gains of the 2000s. These include formal involvement in the economy, streamlined in a consortium of military enterprises and social foundations that are intended to put the Colombian defense sector “on the map” nationally and internationally, and informal involvement expanded mainly through new civic action development projects intended to consolidate the security gains of the 2000s. However, failure to roll back paramilitary groups other than through the voluntary amnesty program of 2005 has facilitated the persistence of illicit collusion by military forces with reconstituted “neoparamilitary” drug trafficking groups. It is therefore crucially important to enhance oversight mechanisms and create substantial penalties for collusion with illegal armed groups. This is particularly important if Colombia intends to continue its new practice of exporting its security model to other countries in the region. The Santos government has initiated several promising reforms to enhance state capacity, institutional transparence, and accountability of public officials to the rule of law, which are crucial to locking in security gains and revitalizing democratic politics. Efforts to diminish opportunities for illicit association between the armed forces and criminal groups should complement that agenda, including the following: Champion breaking existing ties between the military and paramilitary successor groups through creative policies involving a mixture of punishments and rewards directed at the military; Investigation and extradition proceedings of drug traffickers, probe all possible ties, including as a matter of course the possibility of Colombian military collaboration. Doing so rigorously may have an important effect deterring military collusion with criminal groups. Establish and enforce zero-tolerance policies at all military ranks regarding collusion with criminal groups; Reward military units that are effective and also avoid corruption and criminal ties by providing them with enhanced resources and recognition; Rely on the military for civic action and development assistance as minimally as possible in order to build long-term civilian public sector capacity and to reduce opportunities for routine exposure of military forces to criminal groups circulating in local populations.

Essays on the political economy of trade policy and economic *development

This dissertation studies the political economy of trade policy in a developing country, namely Turkey, under different economic and political regimes. The research analyzes the effects of these different regimes on the import structure, the trade policy and the industrialization process in Turkey and derives implications for aggregate welfare. ^ In the second chapter, the effects of trade liberalization policies on import demand are examined. Using disaggregated industry-level data, import demand elasticities for various sectors have been computed, analyzed under different economic regimes, and compared with those of developed countries. The results are statistically significant and reliable, and conform to the predictions of economic theory. Estimation of these elasticities is also a necessary ingredient for the third chapter of the dissertation. ^ The third chapter examines the predictions of the state-of-the-art “Protection For Sale” model of Grossman and Helpman (1994). Employing advanced econometric methods and a unique data set, strong support is found for the fundamental predictions of the model in the context of Turkey. Specifically, the government is found to attach a much higher weight to social welfare than to political contributions. This weight is higher under the democratic regime than under the dictatorship, a result potentially of interest to all researchers in the area of political economy. ^ The fourth chapter looks at the effects of industry concentration and import price shocks on protection, promotion and the choice of policy instruments in Turkey. In this context, it examines and finds support for the predictions of some well-known models in the literature. ^

Population viability analyses of Chamaecrista keyensis (Leguminosae: Caesalpinioideae), a narrowly endemic herb of the lower Florida Keys: Effects of seasonal timing of fires and the urban -wildland interface

This research first evaluated the effects of urban wildland interface on reproductive biology of the Big Pine Partridge Pea, Chamaecrista keyensis, an understory herb that is endemic to Big Pine Key, Florida. I found that C. keyensis was self-compatible, but depended on bees for seed set. Furthermore, individuals of C. keyensis in urban habitats suffered higher seed predation and therefore set fewer seeds than forest interior plants. ^ I then focused on the effects of fire at different times of the year, summer (wet) and winter (dry), on the population dynamics and population viability of C. keyensis. I found that C. keyensis population recovered faster after winter burns and early summer burns (May–June) than after late summer burns (July–September) due to better survival and seedling recruitment following former fires. Fire intensity had positive effects on reproduction of C. keyensis. In contrast, no significant fire intensity effects were found on survival, growth, and seedling recruitment. This indicated that better survival and seedling recruitment following winter and early summer burns (compared with late summer burns) were due to the reproductive phenology of the plant in relation to fires rather than differences in fire intensity. Deterministic population modeling showed that time since fire significantly affected the finite population growth rates (λ). Particularly, recently burned plots had the largest λ. In addition, effects of timing of fires on λ were most pronounced the year of burn, but not the subsequent years. The elasticity analyses suggested that maximizing survival is an effective way to minimize the reduction in finite population growth rate the year of burn. Early summer fires or dry-season fires may achieve this objective. Finally, stochastic simulations indicated that the C. keyensis population had lower extinction risk and population decline probability if burned in the winter than in the late summer. A fire frequency of approximately 7 years would create the lowest extinction probability for C. keyensis. A fire management regime including a wide range of burning seasons may be essential for the continued existence of C. keyensis and other endemic species of pine rockland on Big Pine Key. ^

The Political Economy of Financially Successful Independent Hip-Hop Artists

From 2000 to 2010, America’s music industry’s annual revenue went from $4 billion to $2 billion. Much of this is attributed to the internet’s ability to provide consumers with easy access to free music, and hip hop has been especially impacted by this trend. Utilizing document analysis and personal interviews, this study found that the success of independent artists has influenced the business strategies of major record companies. In response to a dramatic decrease in record sales, major labels have made more of an effort to sign their artists to 360 deals, which allow the labels to profit from every aspect of an artist’s brand or identity. While some independent artists are the main beneficiary of the profits generated from their music and personal brand, they also reify the commodity-form capitalist system by attempting to turn their music and brand into a fetishized commodity and by turning their audience into a fetishized commodity.

The Urban Insurrection against Batista: The Life and Times of José Antonio Echeverria, A Symposium

This flyer promotes the event "The Urban Insurrection against Batista: The Life and Times of José Antonio Echeverria, A Symposium".

Essays on the political economy of the dominican reform process

This dissertation provides an analytical framework to study the political economy of policy reform in the Dominican Republic during the nineties. Based on a country study, I develop two theoretical models that replicate the mechanisms of policy approval in developing countries with weak democracies. The first model considers a pro-reform President who submits a tariff bill to an anti-reform Congress dominated by the opposition party. In between, two opposing lobbies try to get their favored policy approved. Lobbies act as Stackelberg leaders vis a vis a weak President. The behavior of the Congress is determined exogenously while the lobbies act strategically pursuing the approval of the reform bill and indirectly affecting the President's decision. I show that in such a setting external agents like the Press play an important role in the decision-making process of the political actors. The second model presents a similar framework. However, the President, who is a Stackelberg leader, is allowed only two choices, total reform or status-quo. I show how a lobby reacts to an increase in its rival's or its own size. These reactions depend on the President's level of commitment to the reform. Finally, I discuss the effect of variations in the size of the lobbies on the President's choice. The model suitably explains real events that took place in the Dominican Republic in the mid-nineties.

Evaluating the urban heat island for cities of Emilia-Romagna region through numerical simulations

Lo scopo di questo studio è la comprensione della dinamica dello strato limite urbano per città dell’Emilia Romagna tramite simulazioni numeriche. In particolare, l’attenzione è posta sull’ effetto isola di calore, ovvero sulla differenza di temperatura dell’aria in prossimità del suolo fra zone rurali e urbane dovuta all’urbanizzazione. Le simulazioni sono state effettuate con il modello alla mesoscala "Weather Research and Forecasting" (WRF), accoppiato con le parametrizzazioni urbane "Building Effect Parametrization" (BEP) e "Building Energy Model" (BEM), che agiscono a vari livelli verticali urbani. Il periodo di studio riguarda sei giorni caldi e senza copertura nuvolosa durante un periodo di heat wave dell’anno 2015. La copertura urbana è stata definita con il "World Urban Databes and Access Portal Tools" (WUDAPT), un metodo che permette di classificare le aree urbane in dieci "urban climate zones" (UCZ), attraverso l’uso combinato di immagini satellitari e "training areas" manualmente definite con il software Google Earth. Sono state svolte diverse simulazioni a domini innestati, con risoluzione per il dominio più piccolo di 500 m, centrato sulla città di Bologna. Le differenze fra le simulazioni riguardano la presenza o l’assenza delle strutture urbane, il metodo di innesto e tipo di vegetazione rurale. Inoltre, è stato valutato l’effetto dovuto alla presenza di pannelli fotovoltaici sopra i tetti di ogni edificio e le variazioni che i pannelli esercitano sullo strato limite urbano. Per verificare la bontà del modello, i dati provenienti dalle simulazioni sono stati confrontati con misure provenienti da 41 stazioni all’interno dell’area di studio. Le variabili confrontate sono: temperatura, umidità relativa, velocità e direzione del vento. Le simulazioni sono in accordo con i dati osservativi e riescono a riprodurre l’effetto isola di calore: la differenza di temperatura fra città e zone rurali circostanti è nulla durante il giorno; al contrario, durante la notte l’isola di calore è presente, e in media raggiunge il massimo valore di 4°C alle 1:00. La presenza dei pannelli fotovoltaici abbassa la temperatura a 2 metri dell’aria al massimo di 0.8°C durante la notte, e l’altezza dello strato limite urbano dell’ordine 200mrispetto al caso senza pannelli. I risultati mostrano come l’uso di pannelli fotovoltaici all’interno del contesto urbano ha molteplici benefici: infatti, i pannelli fotovoltaici riescono a ridurre la temperatura durante un periodo di heat wave, e allo stesso tempo possono parzialmente sopperire all’alto consumo energetico, con una conseguente riduzione del consumo di combustibili fossili.

The urban ecology of Iron Age Tel Megiddo: using microvertebrate remains as ancient bio-indicators

Peer reviewed

The urban ecology of Iron Age Tel Megiddo: using microvertebrate remains as ancient bio-indicators

Peer reviewed

Investigating the encoding of visual stimuli by forming neural circuits in the cat primary visual cortex

Contexte La connectomique, ou la cartographie des connexions neuronales, est un champ de recherche des neurosciences évoluant rapidement, promettant des avancées majeures en ce qui concerne la compréhension du fonctionnement cérébral. La formation de circuits neuronaux en réponse à des stimuli environnementaux est une propriété émergente du cerveau. Cependant, la connaissance que nous avons de la nature précise de ces réseaux est encore limitée. Au niveau du cortex visuel, qui est l’aire cérébrale la plus étudiée, la manière dont les informations se transmettent de neurone en neurone est une question qui reste encore inexplorée. Cela nous invite à étudier l’émergence des microcircuits en réponse aux stimuli visuels. Autrement dit, comment l’interaction entre un stimulus et une assemblée cellulaire est-elle mise en place et modulée? Méthodes En réponse à la présentation de grilles sinusoïdales en mouvement, des ensembles neuronaux ont été enregistrés dans la couche II/III (aire 17) du cortex visuel primaire de chats anesthésiés, à l’aide de multi-électrodes en tungstène. Des corrélations croisées ont été effectuées entre l’activité de chacun des neurones enregistrés simultanément pour mettre en évidence les liens fonctionnels de quasi-synchronie (fenêtre de ± 5 ms sur les corrélogrammes croisés corrigés). Ces liens fonctionnels dévoilés indiquent des connexions synaptiques putatives entre les neurones. Par la suite, les histogrammes peri-stimulus (PSTH) des neurones ont été comparés afin de mettre en évidence la collaboration synergique temporelle dans les réseaux fonctionnels révélés. Enfin, des spectrogrammes dépendants du taux de décharges entre neurones ou stimulus-dépendants ont été calculés pour observer les oscillations gamma dans les microcircuits émergents. Un indice de corrélation (Rsc) a également été calculé pour les neurones connectés et non connectés. Résultats Les neurones liés fonctionnellement ont une activité accrue durant une période de 50 ms contrairement aux neurones fonctionnellement non connectés. Cela suggère que les connexions entre neurones mènent à une synergie de leur inter-excitabilité. En outre, l’analyse du spectrogramme dépendant du taux de décharge entre neurones révèle que les neurones connectés ont une plus forte activité gamma que les neurones non connectés durant une fenêtre d’opportunité de 50ms. L’activité gamma de basse-fréquence (20-40 Hz) a été associée aux neurones à décharge régulière (RS) et l’activité de haute fréquence (60-80 Hz) aux neurones à décharge rapide (FS). Aussi, les neurones fonctionnellement connectés ont systématiquement un Rsc plus élevé que les neurones non connectés. Finalement, l’analyse des corrélogrammes croisés révèle que dans une assemblée neuronale, le réseau fonctionnel change selon l’orientation de la grille. Nous démontrons ainsi que l’intensité des relations fonctionnelles dépend de l’orientation de la grille sinusoïdale. Cette relation nous a amené à proposer l’hypothèse suivante : outre la sélectivité des neurones aux caractères spécifiques du stimulus, il y a aussi une sélectivité du connectome. En bref, les réseaux fonctionnels «signature » sont activés dans une assemblée qui est strictement associée à l’orientation présentée et plus généralement aux propriétés des stimuli. Conclusion Cette étude souligne le fait que l’assemblée cellulaire, plutôt que le neurone, est l'unité fonctionnelle fondamentale du cerveau. Cela dilue l'importance du travail isolé de chaque neurone, c’est à dire le paradigme classique du taux de décharge qui a été traditionnellement utilisé pour étudier l'encodage des stimuli. Cette étude contribue aussi à faire avancer le débat sur les oscillations gamma, en ce qu'elles surviennent systématiquement entre neurones connectés dans les assemblées, en conséquence d’un ajout de cohérence. Bien que la taille des assemblées enregistrées soit relativement faible, cette étude suggère néanmoins une intrigante spécificité fonctionnelle entre neurones interagissant dans une assemblée en réponse à une stimulation visuelle. Cette étude peut être considérée comme une prémisse à la modélisation informatique à grande échelle de connectomes fonctionnels.