Effects of ocean acidification on the brown alga "Padina pavonica": decalcification due to acute and chronic events

[EN] Since the industrial revolution, anthropogenic CO2 emissions have caused ocean acidification, which particularly affects calcified organisms. Given the fan-like calcified fronds of the brown alga Padina pavonica, we evaluated the acute (shortterm) effects of a sudden pH drop due to a submarine volcanic eruption (October 2011–early March 2012) affecting offshore waters around El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain). We further studied the chronic (long-term) effects of the continuous decrease in pH in the last decades around the Canarian waters. In both the observational and retrospective studies (using herbarium collections of P. pavonica thalli from the overall Canarian Archipelago), the percent of surface calcium carbonate coverage of P. pavonica thalli were contrasted with oceanographic data collected either in situ (volcanic eruption event) or from the ESTOC marine observatory data series (herbarium study). Results showed that this calcified alga is sensitive to acute and chronic environmental pH changes. In both cases, pH changes predicted surface thallus calcification, including a progressive decalcification over the last three decades. This result concurs with previous studies where calcareous organisms decalcify under more acidic conditions. Hence, Padina pavonica can be implemented as a bio-indicator of ocean acidification (at short and long time scales) for monitoring purposes over wide geographic ranges, as this macroalga is affected and thrives (unlike strict calcifiers) under more acidic conditions

Archaeological Baltic amber: degradation mechanisms and conservation measures

The aim of this project was to achieve a deep understanding of the mechanisms by which Baltic amber degrades, in order to develop techniques for preventive conservation of archaeological amber objects belonging to the National Museum of Denmark’s collections. To examine deterioration of Baltic amber, a starting point was to identify and monitor surface and bulk properties which are affected during degradation. The way to operate consisted of the use of accelerated ageing to initiate degradation of raw Baltic amber samples in different conditions of relative humidity, oxygen exposure or pH and, successively, of the use of non/micro-destructive techniques to identify and quantify changes in visual, chemical and structural properties. A large piece of raw Baltic amber was used to prepare several test samples for two different kinds of accelerated ageing: thermal-ageing and photo-ageing. During the ageing, amber samples were regularly examined through several analytical techniques related to different information: appearance/colour change by visual examination, photography and colorimetry; chemical change by infrared spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy and elemental analysis; rate of oxidation by oxygen measurement; qualitative analysis of released volatiles by gas chromatography – mass spectrometry. The obtained results were analysed through both critical evaluation and statistical study. After the interpretation of the achieved data, the main relations between amber and environmental factors during the degradation process became clearer and it was possible to identify the major pathways by which amber degrades, such as hydrolysis of esters into alcohols and carboxylic acids, thermal-oxidation and photo-oxidation of terpenoid components, depolymerisation and decomposition of the chemical structure. At the end it was possible to suggest a preventive conservation strategy based on the control of climatic, atmospheric and lighting parameters in the environment where Baltic amber objects are stored and displayed.

New insights into methodology and interpretation of osteoarthritis. The study of Frassetto identified skeletal collection.

Osteoarthritis (OA) or degenerative joint disease (DJD) is a pathology which affects the synovial joints and characterised by a focal loss of articular cartilage and subsequent bony reaction of the subcondral and marginal bone. Its etiology is best explained by a multifactorial model including: age, sex, genetic and systemic factors, other predisposing diseases and functional stress. In this study the results of the investigation of a modern identified skeletal collection will be presented. In particular, we will focus on the relationship between the presence of OA at various joints. The joint modifications have been analysed using a new methodology that allows the scoring of different degrees of expression of the features considered. Materials and Methods The sample examined comes from the Sassari identified skeletal collection (part of “Frassetto collections”). The individuals were born between 1828 and 1916 and died between 1918 and 1932. Information about sex and age is known for all the individuals. The occupation is known for 173 males and 125 females. Data concerning the occupation of the individuals indicate a preindustrial and rural society. OA has been diagnosed when eburnation (EB) or loss of morphology (LM) were present, or when at least two of the following: marginal lipping (ML), esostosis (EX) or erosion (ER), were present. For each articular surface affected a “mean score” was calculated, reflecting the “severity” of the alterations. A further “score” was calculated for each joint. In the analysis sexes and age classes were always kept separate. For the statistical analyses non parametric test were used. Results The results show there is an increase of OA with age in all the joints analyzed and in particular around 50 years and 60 years. The shoulder, the hip and the knee are the joints mainly affected with ageing while the ankle is the less affected; the correlation values confirm this result. The lesion which show the major correlation with age is the ML. In our sample males are more frequently and more severely affected by OA than females, particularly at the superior limbs, while hip and knee are similarly affected in the two sexes. Lateralization shows some positive results in particular in the right shoulder of males and in various articular surfaces especially of the superior limb of both males and females; articular surfaces and joints are quite always lateralized to the right. Occupational analyses did not show remarkable results probably because of the homogeneity of the sample; males although performing different activities are quite all employed in stressful works. No highest prevalence of knee and hip OA was found in farm-workers respect to the other males. Discussion and Conclusion In this work we propose a methodology to score the different features, necessary to diagnose OA, that allows the investigation of the severity of joint degeneration. This method is easier than the one proposed by Buikstra and Ubelaker (1994), but in the same time allows a quite detailed recording of the features. Epidemiological results can be interpreted quite simply and they are in accordance with other studies; more difficult is the interpretation of the occupational results because many questions concerning the activities performed by the individuals of the collection during their lifespan cannot be solved. Because of this, caution is suggested in the interpretation of bioarcheological specimens. With this work we hope to contribute to the discussion on the puzzling problem of the etiology of OA. The possibility of studying identified skeletons will add important data to the description of osseous features of OA, enriching the medical documentation, based on different criteria. Even if we are aware that the clinical diagnosis is different from the palaeopathological one we think our work will be useful in clarifying some epidemiological as well as pathological aspects of OA.

European phylogeography of the coastal plants Cakile maritima Scop. (Brassicaceae) and Eryngium maritimum L. (Apiaceae)

Linear dispersal systems, such as coastal habitats, are well suited for phylogeographic studies because of their low spatial complexity compared to three dimensional habitats. Widely distributed coastal plant species additionally show azonal and often essentially continuous distributions. These properties, firstly, make it easier to reconstruct historical distributions of coastal plants and, secondly, make it more likely that present distributions contain both Quaternary refugia and recently colonized areas. Taken together this makes it easier to formulate phylogeographic hypotheses. This work investigated the phylogeography of Cakile maritima and Eryngium maritimum, two species growing in sandy habitats along the north Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea coasts on two different spatial scales using AFLP data. The genetic structure of these species was investigated by sampling single individuals along most of their distributions from Turkey to south Sweden. On a regional scale the population genetic structure of both species was also studied in detail in the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, the Strait of Gibraltar and along a continuous stretch of dunes in western France. Additionally, populations of C. maritima were investigated in the Baltic Sea/Kattegat/North Sea area. Over the complete sampling range the species show both differences and similarities in their genetic structure. In the Mediterranean Sea, both species contain Aegean Sea/Black Sea and west Mediterranean clusters. Cakile maritima additionally shows a clustering of Ionian Sea/Adriatic Sea collections. Further, both species show a subdivision of Atlantic Ocean/North Sea/Baltic Sea material from Mediterranean. Within the Atlantic Ocean group, C. maritima from the Baltic Sea and the most northern Atlantic localities form an additional cluster while no such substructure was found in E. maritimum. In all three instances where population genetic investigations of both species were performed in the same area, the results showed almost complete congruency of spatial genetic patterns. In the Aegean/Black Sea/Marmara region a subdivision of populations into a Black Sea, a Sea of Marmara and an Aegean Sea group is shared by both species. In addition the Sea of Marmara populations are more close to the Aegean Sea populations than they are to the Black Sea populations in both cases. Populations from the Atlantic side of the Strait of Gibraltar are differentiated from those on the Mediterranean side in both species, a pattern that confirms the results of the wide scale study. Along the dunes of West France no clear genetic structure could be detected in any of the species. Additionally, the results from the Baltic Sea/North Sea populations of C. maritima did not reveal any geographical genetic pattern. It is postulated that the many congruencies between the species are mainly due to a predominantly sea water mediated seed dispersal in both species and their shared sandy habitat. The results are compared to hypothetical distributions for the last glacial maximum based on species specific temperature requirements. It is argued that in both species the geographical borders of the clusters in the Mediterranean area were not affected by quaternary temperature changes and that the Aegean/Black Sea/Marmara cluster, and possibly the Ionian Sea/Adriatic Sea cluster in C. maritima, is the result of sea currents that isolate these basins from the rest of the sampled areas. The genetic gap in the Strait of Gibraltar between Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea populations in both species is also explained in terms of sea currents. The existence of three subgroups corresponding to the Aegean Sea, Black Sea and Sea of Marmara basins is suggested to have arisen due to geographical isolation during periods of global sea regressions in the glacials. The population genetic evidence was inconclusive regarding the Baltic Sea cluster of C. Maritima from the wide scale study. The results of this study are very similar to those of an investigation of three other coastal plant species over a similar range. This suggests that the phylo-geographic patterns of widespread coastal plants may be more predictable than those of other terrestrial plants.

Genetic characterisation and global comparison of ancient Mediterranean Great White Sharks population (Carcharodon carcharias, L.1758)

This study poses as its objective the genetic characterization of the ancient population of the Great White shark, Carcharodon carcharias, L.1758, present in the Mediterranean Sea. Using historical evidence, for the most part buccal arches but also whole, stuffed examples from various national museums, research institutes and private collections, a dataset of 18 examples coming from the Mediterranean Sea has been created, in order to increase the informations regarding this species in the Mediterranean. The importance of the Mediterranean provenance derives from the fact that a genetic characterization of this species' population does not exist, and this creates gaps in the knowledge of this species in the Mediterranean. The genetic characterization of the individuals will initially take place by the extraction of the ancient DNA and the analysis of the variations in the sequence markers of the mitochondrial DNA. This approach has allowed the genetic comparison between ancient populations of the Mediterranean and contemporary populations of the same geographical area. In addition, the genetic characterization of the population of white sharks of the Mediterranean, has allowed a genetic comparison with populations from global "hot spots", using published sequences in online databases (NCBI, GenBank). Analyzing the variability of the dataset, both in terms space and time, I assessed the evolutionary relationships of the Mediterranean population of Great Whites with the global populations (Australia/New Zealand, South Africa, Pacific USA, West Atlantic), and the temporal trend of the Mediterranean population variability. This method based on the sequencing of two portions of mitochondrial DNA genes, markers showed us how the population of Great White Sharks in the Mediterranean, is genetically more similar to the populations of the Australia Pacific ocean, American Pacific Ocean, rather than the population of South Africa, and showing also how the population of South Africa is abnormally distant from all other clusters. Interestingly, these results are inconsistent with the results from tagging of this species. In addition, there is evidence of differences between the ancient population of the Mediterranean with the modern one. This differentiation between the ancient and modern population of white shark can be the result of events impacting on this species occurred over the last two centuries.

Identity formation at the beginning of the twenty-first century: Intersubjectivity, art, and medicine in Siri Hustvedt’s works

„Ich bin, weil du bist“ – so lautet eines der Schlüsselzitate in What I Loved, dem 2003 erschienenen dritten Roman der zeitgenössischen amerikanischen Autorin Siri Hustvedt. Die Bedeutung von Beziehung und Interaktion für die Identitätsbildung spielt eine zentrale Rolle nicht nur in diesem Roman, sondern auch in ihrem Gesamtwerk, das vier Romane, ein memoir, drei Essay-Sammlungen und einen Lyrikband umfasst. Hustvedt erforscht die Identität als ein vielschichtiges Produkt bewusster und unbewusster Verknüpfungen innerhalb der sozialen und biologischen Umwelt. Das Bewusstsein wird als eine dialogisch geprägte Entität gezeigt, dessen Identität erst durch die Beziehung auf ein Anderes geformt werden kann. Um dem Mysterium der menschlichen Identitätsfindung nachzuspüren, bedient sich Hustvedt sowohl philosophischer, psychoanalytischer, biologischer als auch kunsttheoretischer Diskurse. In ihren Romanen stellt sich die Frage nach der Erklärung von Identität als komplexe Problematik dar: Ist die Beziehung zu anderen Menschen vor allem durch unsere Entwicklung als Kind und die Nähe zu Bezugspersonen geprägt? In welchem Ausmaß ist das Empfinden von Subjektivität beeinflusst von körperlichen und unbewussten Mechanismen? Inwiefern ist die Wahrnehmung visueller Kunst eine Kooperation zwischen Betrachter und Künstler? rnDiesen und anderen Fragen geht diese Dissertation nach, indem sie Hustvedts Werk als Anlass für eine Analyse intersubjektiver Strukturen der Identität nimmt. Die Intersubjektivitätsphiloso¬phien von Hegel, Buber, Bakhtin, Husserl, und Merleau-Ponty dienen hierbei als Ausgangspunkt für die Interpretation von relationaler Identität in Hustvedts Werken. Die Dissertation konzentriert sich auf Hustvedts Darstellung der Beziehung zwischen Selbst und Anderem in der Photographie und in der Malerei, der Überschreitung von Körpergrenzen in Hysterie und Anorexie sowie der Auswirkung des Verlustes von Bezugspersonen auf die persönliche Identität. Entscheidend für den Hustvedtschen Kunstbegriff ist das Zusammenspiel von Kunstobjekt, Künstler und Betrachter. Die Grenzen zwischen Innerem und Äußeren werden aufgelöst: mal wird der Rezipient Teil des Kunstwerks, mal verschmilzt der Künstler förmlich mit seinem Objekt. Auch hier wird wiederum deutlich, dass Identität nur in Wechselbeziehung und als zwischenmenschliche Kooperation entsteht. Hustvedt betritt durch ihre einzigartige Auseinandersetzung mit den Wechselbeziehungen und fragilen Grenzen zwischen Ich und Umwelt Neuland auf dem Gebiet der literarischen Identitätsforschung, da sie ihr Prinzip des „mixing,“ des unausweichlichen Eindringens fremder Substanz in die eigene Identität, aus dem Blickwinkel dieser verschiedenen Erklärungsansätze beleuchtet. rn

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Black Hole and Galaxy Growth over Cosmic Time: the Chandra COSMOS Legacy Survey

The study of supermassive black hole (SMBH) accretion during their phase of activity (hence becoming active galactic nuclei, AGN), and its relation to the host-galaxy growth, requires large datasets of AGN, including a significant fraction of obscured sources. X-ray data are strategic in AGN selection, because at X-ray energies the contamination from non-active galaxies is far less significant than in optical/infrared surveys, and the selection of obscured AGN, including also a fraction of heavily obscured AGN, is much more effective. In this thesis, I present the results of the Chandra COSMOS Legacy survey, a 4.6 Ms X-ray survey covering the equatorial COSMOS area. The COSMOS Legacy depth (flux limit f=2x10^(-16) erg/s/cm^(-2) in the 0.5-2 keV band) is significantly better than that of other X-ray surveys on similar area, and represents the path for surveys with future facilities, like Athena and X-ray Surveyor. The final Chandra COSMOS Legacy catalog contains 4016 point-like sources, 97% of which with redshift. 65% of the sources are optically obscured and potentially caught in the phase of main BH growth. We used the sample of 174 Chandra COSMOS Legacy at z>3 to place constraints on the BH formation scenario. We found a significant disagreement between our space density and the predictions of a physical model of AGN activation through major-merger. This suggests that in our luminosity range the BH triggering through secular accretion is likely preferred to a major-merger triggering scenario. Thanks to its large statistics, the Chandra COSMOS Legacy dataset, combined with the other multiwavelength COSMOS catalogs, will be used to answer questions related to a large number of astrophysical topics, with particular focus on the SMBH accretion in different luminosity and redshift regimes.

Special Collections in the Classroom

Bucknell University's Special Collections/University Archives recently acquired various rare books that have been integrated into curricular initiatives.

Review of Nineteenth-Century Geographies: The Transformation of Space from the Victorian Age to the American Century, eds. H. Michie and R. Thomas

It is by now a banal observation that published collections of conference papers tend to add up to a whole that is considerably less than the sum of the parts. Nineteenth-Century Geographies, a book that grew out of an interdisciplinary conference held at Rice University in 1998 falls into this category. While assuring my readers that each individual contribution is independently worth a read is likewise a predictable cliché, it is in fact the case that every one of the 17 articles collected here—notwithstanding the rather convoluted Introduction—has much to offer the study, broadly speaking, of ‘cultural spaces’ of British and American imperialisms in the nineteenth century. . . . All of my complaints aside, this turns out to be a much more enjoyable book to read than to review, and I would recommend skimming and dipping at length. I cannot quite imagine when a read-through of this book might be called for, except perhaps in graduate seminars on related topics.

The GABRIEL Advanced Surveys: study design, participation and evaluation of bias

Exposure to farming environments has been shown to protect substantially against asthma and atopic disease across Europe and in other parts of the world. The GABRIEL Advanced Surveys (GABRIELA) were conducted to determine factors in farming environments which are fundamental to protecting against asthma and atopic disease. The GABRIEL Advanced Surveys have a multi-phase stratified design. In a first-screening phase, a comprehensive population-based survey was conducted to assess the prevalence of exposure to farming environments and of asthma and atopic diseases (n = 103,219). The second phase was designed to ascertain detailed exposure to farming environments and to collect biomaterial and environmental samples in a stratified random sample of phase 1 participants (n = 15,255). A third phase was carried out in a further stratified sample only in Bavaria, southern Germany, aiming at in-depth respiratory disease and exposure assessment including extensive environmental sampling (n = 895). Participation rates in phase 1 were around 60% but only about half of the participating study population consented to further study modules in phase 2. We found that consenting behaviour was related to familial allergies, high parental education, wheeze, doctor diagnosed asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis, and to a lesser extent to exposure to farming environments. The association of exposure to farm environments with asthma or rhinoconjunctivitis was not biased by participation or consenting behaviour. The GABRIEL Advanced Surveys are one of the largest studies to shed light on the protective 'farm effect' on asthma and atopic disease. Bias with regard to the main study question was able to be ruled out by representativeness and high participation rates in phases 2 and 3. The GABRIEL Advanced Surveys have created extensive collections of questionnaire data, biomaterial and environmental samples promising new insights into this area of research.

The Assertion of Identity: Storytelling and Testimony in the Works of Edwidge Danticat

Haitian-American author Edwidge Danticat evokes the Haitian tradition of storytelling in many of her novels and short story collections. A tradition formulated by vodou religion and the amalgamation of African cultures, storytelling acts to entertain, educate and enlighten the people of Haiti. Additionally, her novels are often written in the context of traumatic events in Haitian history. While Danticat's works have been studied with focus on their depiction of storytelling and of trauma, little has been done on the restorative power that storytelling provides. In this thesis, I seek to examine the potential for Danticat's characters and works to create narratives that build community, present testimony, and aid traumatized individuals in recovery.

Prospective, paired crossover comparison of multiple, single-needle plateletpheresis procedures with the Amicus and Trima Accel cell separators

BACKGROUND: The Baxter Amicus Version 2.51 (A) and the Gambro BCT Trima Accel Version 5.0 (T) cell separators may produce multiple platelet (PLT) concentrates within a single donation. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The single-needle multiple plateletpheresis procedures of the two devices were compared in a prospective, randomized, paired crossover study in 60 donors. The 120 donations were compared for donor comfort, collection efficiency, residual white blood cell (WBC) count, and (in selected patients) corrected count increment (CCI). RESULTS: The mean PLT yield and the resultant mean number of units per donation were significantly lower for A (6.06 x 10(11) vs. 7.48 x 10(11) and 2.57 vs. 3.19, respectively, both p < 0.001), in spite of a longer apheresis duration (89 min vs. 79 min; p < 0.001). This resulted in a higher collection rate of T (5.68 x 10(11) PLTs/hr vs. 4.10 x 10(11) PLTs/hr, p < 0.001). Residual WBC count of every unit was fewer than 5 x 10(6), but significantly fewer A-PLT donations contained more than 10(5) WBCs per unit (1 vs. 9, p = 0.008). Although the ACD-A consumption was slightly higher for A (489 mL vs. 469 mL, p = 0.04), a trend to a higher frequency of side effects was found for T (42.4% vs. 23.7%, p = 0.06). The 1-hour CCIs of 33 transfused A-PLT units were comparable with those of 43 T-PLT units (11.8 vs. 13.9, p = 0.480). CONCLUSIONS: Both cell separators showed safe collections of up to 4 PLT units per donation with adequate CCI. T produced a higher PLT yield despite shorter apheresis duration, but with slightly higher residual WBC counts and a trend to a higher side-effect frequency.

Characterization of legacy organic carbon in a culturally eutrophic lake : the role of the historic carbon deposition in the time course and extent of lake recovery

The time course of lake recovery after a reduction in external loading of nutrients is often controlled by conditions in the sediment. Remediation of eutrophication is hindered by the presence of legacy organic carbon deposits, that exert a demand on the terminal electron acceptors of the lake and contribute to problems such as internal nutrient recycling, absence of sediment macrofauna, and flux of toxic metal species into the water column. Being able to quantify the timing of a lake’s response requires determination of the magnitude and lability, i.e., the susceptibility to biodegradation, of the organic carbon within the legacy deposit. This characterization is problematic for organic carbon in sediments because of the presence of different fractions of carbon, which vary from highly labile to refractory. The lability of carbon under varied conditions was tested with a bioassay approach. It was found that the majority of the organic material found in the sediments is conditionally-labile, where mineralization potential is dependent on prevailing conditions. High labilities were noted under oxygenated conditions and a favorable temperature of 30 °C. Lability decreased when oxygen was removed, and was further reduced when the temperature was dropped to the hypolimnetic average of 8° C . These results indicate that reversible preservation mechanisms exist in the sediment, and are able to protect otherwise labile material from being mineralized under in situ conditions. The concept of an active sediment layer, a region in the sediments in which diagenetic reactions occur (with nothing occurring below it), was examined through three lines of evidence. Initially, porewater profiles of oxygen, nitrate, sulfate/total sulfide, ETSA (Electron Transport System Activity- the activity of oxygen, nitrate, iron/manganese, and sulfate), and methane were considered. It was found through examination of the porewater profiles that the edge of diagenesis occurred around 15-20 cm. Secondly, historical and contemporary TOC profiles were compared to find the point at which the profiles were coincident, indicating the depth at which no change has occurred over the (13 year) interval between core collections. This analysis suggested that no diagenesis has occurred in Onondaga Lake sediment below a depth of 15 cm. Finally, the time to 99% mineralization, the t99, was viewed by using a literature estimate of the kinetic rate constant for diagenesis. A t99 of 34 years, or approximately 30 cm of sediment depth, resulted for the slowly decaying carbon fraction. Based on these three lines of evidence , an active sediment layer of 15-20 cm is proposed for Onondaga Lake, corresponding to a time since deposition of 15-20 years. While a large legacy deposit of conditionally-labile organic material remains in the sediments of Onondaga Lake, it becomes clear that preservation, mechanisms that act to shield labile organic carbon from being degraded, protects this material from being mineralized and exerting a demand on the terminal electron acceptors of the lake. This has major implications for management of the lake, as it defines the time course of lake recovery following a reduction in nutrient loading.

Empirical evidence of bias in treatment effect estimates in controlled trials with different interventions and outcomes: meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the association of inadequate or unclear allocation concealment and lack of blinding with biased estimates of intervention effects varies with the nature of the intervention or outcome. DESIGN: Combined analysis of data from three meta-epidemiological studies based on collections of meta-analyses. DATA SOURCES: 146 meta-analyses including 1346 trials examining a wide range of interventions and outcomes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Ratios of odds ratios quantifying the degree of bias associated with inadequate or unclear allocation concealment, and lack of blinding, for trials with different types of intervention and outcome. A ratio of odds ratios <1 implies that inadequately concealed or non-blinded trials exaggerate intervention effect estimates. RESULTS: In trials with subjective outcomes effect estimates were exaggerated when there was inadequate or unclear allocation concealment (ratio of odds ratios 0.69 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.82)) or lack of blinding (0.75 (0.61 to 0.93)). In contrast, there was little evidence of bias in trials with objective outcomes: ratios of odds ratios 0.91 (0.80 to 1.03) for inadequate or unclear allocation concealment and 1.01 (0.92 to 1.10) for lack of blinding. There was little evidence for a difference between trials of drug and non-drug interventions. Except for trials with all cause mortality as the outcome, the magnitude of bias varied between meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The average bias associated with defects in the conduct of randomised trials varies with the type of outcome. Systematic reviewers should routinely assess the risk of bias in the results of trials, and should report meta-analyses restricted to trials at low risk of bias either as the primary analysis or in conjunction with less restrictive analyses.