Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. 2: Comparison over non-uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison of the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. These large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.

Improved information about the vertical location and extent of monolayer clouds from POLDER3 measurements in the oxygen A-band

This paper describes new advances in the exploitation of oxygen A-band measurements from POLDER3 sensor onboard PARASOL, satellite platform within the A-Train. These developments result from not only an account of the dependence of POLDER oxygen parameters to cloud optical thickness τ and to the scene's geometrical conditions but also, and more importantly, from the finer understanding of the sensitivity of these parameters to cloud vertical extent. This sensitivity is made possible thanks to the multidirectional character of POLDER measurements. In the case of monolayer clouds that represent most of cloudy conditions, new oxygen parameters are obtained and calibrated from POLDER3 data colocalized with the measurements of the two active sensors of the A-Train: CALIOP/CALIPSO and CPR/CloudSat. From a parameterization that is (μs, τ) dependent, with μs the cosine of the solar zenith angle, a cloud top oxygen pressure (CTOP) and a cloud middle oxygen pressure (CMOP) are obtained, which are estimates of actual cloud top and middle pressures (CTP and CMP). Performances of CTOP and CMOP are presented by class of clouds following the ISCCP classification. In 2008, the coefficient of the correlation between CMOP and CMP is 0.81 for cirrostratus, 0.79 for stratocumulus, 0.75 for deep convective clouds. The coefficient of the correlation between CTOP and CTP is 0.75, 0.73, and 0.79 for the same cloud types. The score obtained by CTOP, defined as the confidence in the retrieval for a particular range of inferred value and for a given error, is higher than the one of MODIS CTP estimate. Scores of CTOP are the highest for bin value of CTP superior in numbers. For liquid (ice) clouds and an error of 30 hPa (50 hPa), the score of CTOP reaches 50% (70%). From the difference between CTOP and CMOP, a first estimate of the cloud vertical extent h is possible. A second estimate of h comes from the correlation between the angular standard deviation of POLDER oxygen pressure σPO2 and the cloud vertical extent. This correlation is studied in detail in the case of liquid clouds. It is shown to be spatially and temporally robust, except for clouds above land during winter months. The analysis of the correlation's dependence on the scene's characteristics leads to a parameterization providing h from σPO2. For liquid water clouds above ocean in 2008, the mean difference between the actual cloud vertical extent and the one retrieved from σPO2 (from the pressure difference) is 5 m (−12 m). The standard deviation of the mean difference is close to 1000 m for the two methods. POLDER estimates of the cloud geometrical thickness obtain a global score of 50% confidence for a relative error of 20% (40%) of the estimate for ice (liquid) clouds over ocean. These results need to be validated outside of the CALIPSO/CloudSat track.

Re-examining the U.K.'s greatest tornado outbreak: forecasting the limited extent of tornadoes along a cold front

On 23 November 1981, a strong cold front swept across the U.K., producing tornadoes from the west to the east coasts. An extensive campaign to collect tornado reports by the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) resulted in 104 reports, the largest U.K. outbreak. The front was simulated with a convection-permitting numerical model down to 200-m horizontal grid spacing to better understand its evolution and meteorological environment. The event was typical of tornadoes in the U.K., with convective available potential energy (CAPE) less than 150 J kg-1, 0-1-km wind shear of 10-20 m s-1, and a narrow cold-frontal rainband forming precipitation cores and gaps. A line of cyclonic absolute vorticity existed along the front, with maxima as large as 0.04 s-1. Some hook-shaped misovortices bore kinematic similarity to supercells. The narrow swath along which the line was tornadic was bounded on the equatorward side by weak vorticity along the line and on the poleward side by zero CAPE, enclosing a region where the environment was otherwise favorable for tornadogenesis. To determine if the 104 tornado reports were plausible, first possible duplicate reports were eliminated, resulting in as few as 58 tornadoes to as many as 90. Second, the number of possible parent misovortices that may have spawned tornadoes is estimated from model output. The number of plausible tornado reports in the 200-m grid-spacing domain was 22 and as many as 44, whereas the model simulation was used to estimate 30 possible parent misovortices within this domain. These results suggest that 90 reports was plausible.

High-precision measurements of the co-polar correlation coefficient: non-Gaussian errors and retrieval of the dispersion parameter µ in rainfall

The co-polar correlation coefficient (ρhv) has many applications, including hydrometeor classification, ground clutter and melting layer identification, interpretation of ice microphysics and the retrieval of rain drop size distributions (DSDs). However, we currently lack the quantitative error estimates that are necessary if these applications are to be fully exploited. Previous error estimates of ρhv rely on knowledge of the unknown "true" ρhv and implicitly assume a Gaussian probability distribution function of ρhv samples. We show that frequency distributions of ρhv estimates are in fact highly negatively skewed. A new variable: L = -log10(1 - ρhv) is defined, which does have Gaussian error statistics, and a standard deviation depending only on the number of independent radar pulses. This is verified using observations of spherical drizzle drops, allowing, for the first time, the construction of rigorous confidence intervals in estimates of ρhv. In addition, we demonstrate how the imperfect co-location of the horizontal and vertical polarisation sample volumes may be accounted for. The possibility of using L to estimate the dispersion parameter (µ) in the gamma drop size distribution is investigated. We find that including drop oscillations is essential for this application, otherwise there could be biases in retrieved µ of up to ~8. Preliminary results in rainfall are presented. In a convective rain case study, our estimates show µ to be substantially larger than 0 (an exponential DSD). In this particular rain event, rain rate would be overestimated by up to 50% if a simple exponential DSD is assumed.

What controls the vertical distribution of aerosol? Relationships between process sensitivity in HadGEM3–UKCA and inter-model variation from AeroCom Phase II

The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3–UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3–UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN  >  3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN  >  100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. We also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Verification of the role of the low level jets in Amazon squall lines

In this study we present a climatology of the Amazon squall lines (ASLs), between the years 2000 and 2008, using satellite imagery and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses. The ASLs we are interested in are typically formed along the northern coast of Brazil and sometimes propagate for long distances inland. Results show that, on average, an ASL occurs every 2 days. ASLs are more frequent between April and June and less frequent between October and November. The years of 2005 and 2006 showed 25% more cases than the other years. This might be related to an increase of the Atlantic sea surface temperature. Of the total number of ASL cases, 54% propagated less than 170 km, 26% propagated between 170 and 400 km, and 20% propagated more than 400 km. We also studied the occurrence of low level jets (LLJs) associated with the coastal ASLs. Although LLJs are always present in the environment before the formation of the ASL and even on days without ASL cases, important differences were found, mainly related to the LLJ depths. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cloud streets and land-water interactions in the Amazon

Cloud streets are common feature in the Amazon Basin. They form from the combination of the vertical trade wind stress and moist convection. Here, satellite imagery, data collected during the COBRA-PARA (Caxiuan Observations in the Biosphere, River and Atmosphere of Para) field campaign, and high resolution modeling are used to understand the streets` formation and behavior. The observations show that the streets have an aspect ratio of about 3.5 and they reach their maximum activity around 15:00 UTC when the wind shear is weaker, and the convective boundary layer reaches its maximum height. The simulations reveal that the cloud streets onset is caused by the local circulations and convection produced at the interfaces between forest and rivers of the Amazon. The satellite data and modeling show that the large rivers anchor the cloud streets producing a quasi-stationary horizontal pattern. The streets are associated with horizontal roll vortices parallel to the mean flow that organizes the turbulence causing advection of latent heat flux towards the upward branches. The streets have multiple warm plumes that promote a connection between the rolls. These spatial patterns allow fundamental insights on the interpretation of the Amazon exchanges between surface and atmosphere with important consequences for the climate change understanding.

The energy cycle and structural evolution of cyclones over southeastern South America in three case studies

In this paper, the Lorenz energy cycle over a limited area was applied for three cyclones with different origins and evolutions, where each of them was formed in an important cyclogenetic region near southeastern South America. The synoptic conditions and energetics were analyzed during each system`s life cycle and showed important relationships between their energy cycle and the evolution of their vertical structure. In the case of the weak baroclinic cyclone which formed on Brazil`s south-southeastern coast, the analysis showed that it originated through a midlevel cutoff low with contribution from barotropic instability. Its evolution would indicate potential transition to a hybrid system if the convective activity were stronger. The system that occurred in the La Plata River mouth had features of an oceanic bomb-type cyclogenesis and showed an important contribution from the available potential energy generation term through the latent heat release by the convection. Meanwhile, the system of the southern Argentina coast presented a classical baroclinic development of extratropical cyclogenesis in the energy cycle, from the wave amplification up to the final occlusion of the associated frontal system. These analyses revealed that the development of some cyclones that occur in eastern South America can present different mechanisms that are not related to the classical extratropical cyclogenesis.

Ground-based detection of sprites and their parent lightning flashes over Africa during the 2006 AMMA campaign

Sprites have been detected in video camera observations from Niger over mesoscale convective systems in Nigeria during the 2006 AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) campaign The parent lightning flashes have been detected by multiple Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) receiving stations worldwide The recorded charge moments of the patent lightning flashes are often in excellent agreement between different receiving sites, and are furthermore consistent with conventional dielectric breakdown in the mesosphere as the origin of the sprites Analysis of the polarization of the horizontal magnetic field at the distant receivers provides evidence that the departure from linear magnetic polarization at ELF is caused primarily by the clay night asymmetry of the Earth-ionosphere cavity Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Resonant Wave Interactions in the Presence of a Diurnally Varying Heat Source

Resonant interactions among equatorial waves in the presence of a diurnally varying heat source are studied in the context of the diabatic version of the equatorial beta-plane primitive equations for a motionless, hydrostatic, horizontally homogeneous and stably stratified background atmosphere. The heat source is assumed to be periodic in time and of small amplitude [i.e., O(epsilon)] and is prescribed to roughly represent the typical heating associated with deep convection in the tropical atmosphere. In this context, using the asymptotic method of multiple time scales, the free linear Rossby, Kelvin, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves, as well as their vertical structures, are obtained as leading-order solutions. These waves are shown to interact resonantly in a triad configuration at the O(e) approximation, and the dynamics of these interactions have been studied in the presence of the forcing. It is shown that for the planetary-scale wave resonant triads composed of two first baroclinic equatorially trapped waves and one barotropic Rossby mode, the spectrum of the thermal forcing is such that only one of the triad components is resonant with the heat source. As a result, to illustrate the role of the diurnal forcing in these interactions in a simplified fashion, two kinds of triads have been analyzed. The first one refers to triads composed of a k = 0 first baroclinic geostrophic mode, which is resonant with the stationary component of the diurnal heat source, and two dispersive modes, namely, a mixed Rossby-gravity wave and a barotropic Rossby mode. The other class corresponds to triads composed of two first baroclinic inertio-gravity waves in which the highest-frequency wave resonates with a transient harmonic of the forcing. The integration of the asymptotic reduced equations for these selected resonant triads shows that the stationary component of the diurnal heat source acts as an ""accelerator"" for the energy exchanges between the two dispersive waves through the excitation of the catalyst geostrophic mode. On the other hand, since in the second class of triads the mode that resonates with the forcing is the most energetically active member because of the energy constraints imposed by the triad dynamics, the results show that the convective forcing in this case is responsible for a longer time scale modulation in the resonant interactions, generating a period doubling in the energy exchanges. The results suggest that the diurnal variation of tropical convection might play an important role in generating low-frequency fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation through resonant nonlinear interactions.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

The South American Monsoon System and the 1970s climate transition

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is characterised by intense convective activity and precipitation during austral summer. This study investigates changes in the onset, demise and duration of SAMS during 1948-2008. The results show a significant change in these characteristics in the early 1970s. Onset becomes steadily earlier from 1948 to early 1970s and has occurred earlier than 23-27 October after 1972-1973. Demise dates have remained later than 21-25 April after the mid-to-late 1970s. SAMS duration shows a statistical changepoint in the summer of 1971-1972 such that the mean duration was similar to 170 days (1948-1972) and 195 days (1972-1982). Vertically integrated moisture flux is used to diagnose changes in mean state and reveal statistically significant increases over South America after 1971-1972. Copyright. (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on precipitation in the Amazon: A modeling case study

A study of the potential role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation is presented using a numerical atmospheric model. Measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud size distribution properties taken in the southwestern Amazon region during the transition from dry to wet seasons were used as guidelines to define the microphysical parameters for the simulations. Numerical simulations were carried out using the Brazilian Development on Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, and the results presented considerable sensitivity to changes in these parameters. High CCN concentrations, typical of polluted days, were found to result in increases or decreases in total precipitation, depending on the level of pollution used as a reference, showing a complexity that parallels the aerosol-precipitation interaction. Our results show that on the grids evaluated, higher CCN concentrations reduced low-to-moderate rainfall rates and increased high rainfall rates. The principal consequence of the increased pollution was a change from a warm to a cold rain process, which affected the maximum and overall mean accumulated precipitation. Under polluted conditions, cloud cover diminished, allowing greater amounts of solar radiation to reach the surface. Aerosol absorption of radiation in the lower layers of the atmosphere delayed convective evolution but produced higher maximum rainfall rates due to increased instability. In addition, the intensity of the surface sensible heat flux, as well as that of the latent heat flux, was reduced by the lower temperature difference between surface and air, producing greater energy stores at the surface.

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.