Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Regulation by the exogenous polyamine spermidine of Na,K-ATPase activity from the gills of the euryhaline swimming crab Callinectes danae (Brachyura, Portunidae)

Euryhaline crustaceans rarely hyporegulates and employ the driving force of the Na,K-ATPase, located at the basal surface of the gill epithelium, to maintain their hemolymph osmolality within a range compatible with cell function during hyper-regulation. Since polyamine levels increase during the adaptation of crustaceans to hyperosmotic media, we investigate the effect of exogenous polyamines on Na,K-ATPase activity in the posterior gills of Callinectes danae, a euryhaline swimming crab. Polyamine inhibition was dependent on cation concentration, charge and size in the following order: spermine > spermidine > putrescine. Spermidine affected K-0.5 values for Na+ with minor alterations in K-0.5 values for K+ and N-H-4(+), causing a decrease in maximal velocities under saturating Na+, K+ and NH4+ concentrations. Phosphorylation measurements in the presence of 20 mu M ATP revealed that the Na,K-ATPase possesses a high affinity site for this substrate. In the presence of 10 mM Na+, both spermidine and spermine inhibited formation of the phosphoenzyme; however, in the presence of 100 mM Na+, the addition of these polyamines allowed accumulation of the phosphoenzyme. The polyamines inhibited pumping activity, both by competing with Na+ at the Na+-binding site, and by inhibiting enzyme dephosphorylation. These findings suggest that polyamine-induced inhibition of Na,K-ATPase activity may be physiologically relevant during migration to fully marine environments. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of tumor necrosis factor-alpha polymorphisms and ozone-induced change in lung function

Ozone is a major air pollutant with adverse health effects which exhibit marked inter-individual variability. In mice, regions of genetic linkage with ozone-induced lung injury include the tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF), lymphotoxin-alpha (LTA), Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), superoxide dismutase (SOD2), and glutathione peroxidase (GPX1) genes. We genotyped polymorphisms in these genes in 51 individuals who had undergone ozone challenge. Mean change in FEV1 with ozone challenge, as a percentage of baseline, was -3% in TNF -308G/A or A/A individuals, compared with -9% in G/G individuals (p = 0.024). When considering TNF haplotypes, the smallest change in FEV1 with ozone exposure was associated with the TNF haplotype comprising LTA +252G/TNF -1031T/TNF -308A/TNF -238G. This association remained statistically significant after correction for age, sex, disease, and ozone concentration (p = 0.047). SOD2 or GPX1 genotypes were not associated with lung function, and the TLR4 polymorphism was too infrequent to analyze. The results of this study support TNF as a genetic factor for susceptibility to ozone-induced changes in lung function in humans, and has potential implications for stratifying health risks of air pollution.

Canine gastrointestinal parasitic zoonoses in India

Although well recognized and studied in developed countries, canine parasitic zoonoses pose a lowly prioritized public health problem in developing countries such as India, where conditions are conducive for transmission. A study of the most recent parasite survey determining prevalence and epidemiology of canine parasitic zoonoses among tea-growing communities of northeast India demonstrated the endemicity of the problem. This particular study serves as a model using conventional, as well as molecular parasitological, tools to provide novel insights into the role of dogs as mechanical transmitters of human parasites such as Ascaris and Trichuris, and discusses the risks dogs pose with regards to zoonotic transmission of hookworms and Giardia.

'You can criticise because you care': How attributions affect responses to ingroup and outgroup critics

There are times when people feel compelled to stand up and articulate their group's shortcomings, an act that carries with it enormous social risks. Indeed, a mechanistic reading of social identity theory might lead one to believe that ingroup critics are doomed to face hostility because they are attacking a fundamental part of people's self-concept. But often ingroup critics are doing more than attacking their group — they are trying to incite positive change. Criticism is the cornerstone of protest, and it is difficult to imagine how a group can be reinvigorated, reinvented, or reformed without some process of critical self-reflection. Thus, although the ingroup critic might create tension within the group, it is possible that internal criticism could be seen by other group members as beneficial in terms of promoting positive change and stimulating innovation, creativity, and flexibility in decision making. In this talk I examine the 'identity rules' that ingroup critics need to follow to avoid defensiveness, and look at empirical evidence of how factors such as language, the intergroup context, and choice of audience shape people's attributions regarding criticism and their subsequent evaluations of critics.

The benefits of polyandry in the free-spawning polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa

In many species, females are thought to benefit from polyandry due to the reduced risks of fertilization by genetically incompatible sperm. However, few studies that have reported such benefits have directly attributed variation in female reproductive success to the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization. In this paper, we determine whether male x female interactions influence fertilization in vitro in the free-spawning, sessile polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa. Furthermore, we determined whether polyandry results in direct fertilization benefits for females by experimentally manipulating the number of males contributing towards staged spawning events. To test for male x female interaction effects we performed an initial experiment that crossed seven males with six females (in all 42 combinations), enabling us to assess fertilization rates for each specific male-female pairing and attribute variation in fertilization success to males, females and their interaction. This initial experiment revealed a strong interaction between males and females at fertilization, confirming that certain male-female combinations were more compatible than others. A second experiment tested the hypothesis that polyandry enhances female reproductive success by exposing each female's eggs to either a single male's sperm (monandry) or the sperm from three males simultaneously (polyandry). We performed this second experiment at two ecologically relevant sperm concentrations. This latter experiment revealed a strong fertilization benefit of polyandry, independent of the effects of sperm concentration (which were also significant). We suggest that these direct fertilization gains arising from polyandry will constitute an important source of selection on females to mate multiply in nature.

Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer: estimate of risk: Education debate

The risk of breast cancer arises from a combination of genetic susceptibility and environmental factors. Recent studies show that type and duration of use of hormone replacement therapy affect a women's risk of developing breast cancer.1-7 The women's health initiative trial was stopped early because of excess adverse cardiovascular events and invasive breast cancer with oestrogen and progestogen.6 The publicity increased public awareness of the risks of hormone replacement therapy, and this was heightened by the publication of the million women study.2 However, the recently published oestrogen only arm of the women's health initiative trial suggests that this formulation may reduce the risk of breast cancer.8 To help make sense of the often confusing information,9 women and clinicians need individual rather than population risk data. We have produced estimates that can be used to calculate individual risk for women living up to the age of 79 and suggest the risk

HRT and breast cancer: Impact on population risk and incidence

This study has calculated the potential impact of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on breast cancer incidence in Australia and has estimated how changes in prescribing HRT to women could affect this risk. The effects of HRT on breast cancer incidence was estimated using the attributable fraction technique with prevalence data derived from the 2001 Australian Health Survey and published rates of breast cancer relative risks from HRT use. In Australia, 12% of adult women were current HRT users and in 2001, 11783 breast cancers were reported. Of these, 1066 (9%) were potentially attributable to HRT. Restricting HRT use to women aged less than 65 years, ceasing HRT prescribing after 10 years or limiting combined oestrogen and progesterone HRT to five years (but otherwise keeping prescription levels to 2001 levels) may reduce the annual breast cancer caseload by 280 (2.4%), 555 (4.7%) or 674 (5.7%), respectively. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that when HRT prevalence is relatively high, the effect on breast cancer incidence in the population will be significant. A small modification in HRT prescribing practices may impact breast cancer incidence in Australia with associated financial and health care provision implications. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer risk in California

Numerous studies have documented increased breast cancer risks with hormone replacement therapy (HRT), but these do not give a woman her specific absolute risk for the remainder of her life. This article estimates the magnitude of the effect of HRT on breast cancer incidence in California and calculates a woman's cumulative risk of breast cancer with different formulations and durations of HRT use. The effects of HRT on the underlying breast cancer incidence were estimated using the attributable fraction method, applying HRT prevalence data from the 2001 California Health Interview Survey and published rates of higher relative risk (RR) from HRT use from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study and Million Women's Survey (MWS). The annual number of breast cancers potentially attributable to HRT in California was estimated, along with individual cumulative risk of breast cancer for various ages to 79 years according to HRT use, duration, and formulation. Using the WHI data, 829 of 19,000 breast cancers (4.3%) in California may be attributable to HRT This figure increases to 3401 (17.4%) when the MWS RRs are applied. Use of estrogen-only HRT or short-term (approximately 5 years) use of combined HRT has a minimal effect on the cumulative risk calculated to the age of 79 years; application of the MWS data to a Californian woman commencing HRT at the age of 50 years (no HRT, 8.5%; estrogen only, 8.6%; combined, 9.1%). Prolonged (approximately 10 years) use of combined HRT increases the cumulative risk to 10.3%. This article demonstrates that HRT will generate a small additional risk of breast cancer in an individual. The reduction in perimenopausal symptoms may be considered sufficient to warrant this extra risk. However, this view needs to be balanced because the small increases in individual risk will be magnified, producing a noticeable change in population cancer caseload where HRT use is high.

Metabolic syndrome in rheumatological diseases

Metabolic syndrome is characterized by a combination of various cardiovascular risk factors (age, gender, smoking, hypertension and dyslipidemia) that imply additional cardiovascular morbidity that is greater than the sum of the risks associated with each individual component. Herein, the authors review the rheumatological diseases in which metabolic syndrome has been studied: gout, osteoarthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, rheumatoid arthritis, Sjogren`s syndrome and ankylosing spondylitis. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome in these disorders varies from 14% to 62.8%. The great majority of these studies demonstrated that this frequency was higher in rheumatological diseases than in the control populations, suggesting that either the presence or the treatment of those diseases seems to influence the risk of developing metabolic syndrome. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Outpatient treatment with intravenous antimicrobial therapy and oral levofloxacin in patients with febrile neutropenia and hematological malignancies

The purpose of this study was to evaluate outcomes such as success of the initial therapy, failure of outpatient treatment, and death in outpatient treatment during intravenous antimicrobial therapy in patients with febrile neutropenia (FN) and hematological malignancies. In addition, clinical and laboratory data and the Multinational Association for Supportive Care of Cancer index (MASCC) were compared with failure of outpatient treatment and death. In a retrospective study, we evaluated FN following chemotherapy events that were treated initially with cefepime, with or without teicoplanin and replaced by levofloxacin after 48 h of defervescence in patients with good general conditions and ANC > 500/mm(3). Of the 178 FN episodes occurred in 126 patients, we observed success of the initial therapy in 63.5% of the events, failure of outpatient treatment in 20.8%, and death in 6.2%. The success rate of oral levofloxacin after defervescence was 99% (95 out of 96). Using multivariate analysis, significant risks of failure of outpatient treatment were found to be smoking (odds ratio (OR) 3.14, confidence interval (CI) 1.14-8.66; p = 0.027) and serum creatinine levels > 1.2 mg/dL (OR 7.97, CI 2.19-28.95; p = 0.002). With regard to death, the risk found was oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry < 95% (OR 5.8, IC 1.50-22.56; p = 0.011). Using the MASCC index, 165 events were classified as low risk and 13 as high risk. Failure of outpatient treatment was reported in seven (53.8%) high-risk and 30 (18.2%) low-risk episodes (p = 0.006). In addition, death occurred in seven (4.2%) low-risk and four (30.8%) high-risk events (p = 0.004). Ours results show that MASCC index was able to identify patients with high risk. In addition, non-smoking, serum creatinine levels a parts per thousand currency sign1.2 mg/dL, and oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry a parts per thousand yen95% were protection factors.

Tubal sterilisation, hysterectomy and decreased risk of ovarian cancer

We have examined the effect of tubal sterilisation and hysterectomy on risk of ovarian cancer in a large case-control study in eastern Australia involving 824 women aged 18-79 years, diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer between 1990 and 1993, and 855 controls randomly selected from the electoral roll. Relative risks for ovarian cancer were estimated using multiple categorical regression to adjust for age, parity, oral contraceptive use and other risk factors. Tubal sterilisation was associated with a 39% reduction in risk of ovarian cancer (RR 0.61, 95% Cl 0.46-0.85) and hysterectomy with a 36% reduction (RR 0.64, 95% Cl 0.48-0.85). Risk remained low 25 years after surgery and was reduced irrespective of sterilisation technique, and estimates were similar among various types of epithelial ovarian cancer. The greatest reduction (74%) was observed among women with primary peritoneal tumours. Pelvic infection and use of vaginal sprays or contraceptive foams were not related to ovarian cancer, while use of talc in the perineal region slightly but significantly increased risk among women with patent fallopian tubes. Reportedly heavy or painful menses, perhaps associated with retrograde flow, were associated with ovarian cancer, and reduction in risk of disease after hysterectomy was greatest among women who had heavy periods. Our findings support the theory that contaminants from the vagina, such as talc, and from the uterus, such as endometrium, gain access to the peritoneal cavity through patent fallopian tubes and may enhance the malignant transformation of ovarian surface epithelium. Surgical tubal occlusion may reduce the risk of ovarian cancer by preventing the access of such agents. (C) 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

An epidemic of violence?: Changing patterns in reported rapes in Victoria

Victoria Police statistics show that, since the late 1980s, there has been a significant increase in reported rapes in that State. One interpretation of this trend is that there has been an increase in the underlying incidence of sexual violence in the community. An alternative explanation is that rape victims have become more willing to report to the police, in response to factors such as improved provision of support services to sexual assault victims, reforms to substantive and procedural law, and changes in police attitudes and procedures. In order to rest these competing interpretations data were collected and analysed on the characteristics of rapes reported to the Victoria Police in the late 1980s/early 1990s. This analysis showed that: (I) most of the additional offences reported in the early 1990s were allegations of rapes committed by family members, spouses and other intimates; and (2) an increasing number of reports related to offences which had been committed at feast one year prior to a report being made to the police. It is argued that these changing patterns are consistent with a significant increase in the reporting rate for rape. More generally, the research reported in this paper highlights the limitations of reported crime statistics as measures of the level of social violence, and points to the need for crime researchers to develop alternative methodologies for measuring and interpreting trends.

Mammography findings following electron intraoperative radiotherapy or external radiotherapy for breast cancer treatment

Radiotherapy following breast cancer conserving surgery decreases the risks of local recurrence. Because 85% of breast cancers relapse in or around the surgical bed there has been some debate on the need for irradiating the whole breast. Electron intraoperative radiotherapy (ELIOT) has been used as a viable alternative for conventional external radiotherapy (RT). While the former requires a single dose of 21 Gy in the tumoral bed, the latter requires 5-6 weeks of irradiation with a total dose of 50 Gy and a boost of 10 Gy that irradiates the surgical bed. Herein, we investigated whether any significant differences exist between the mammography findings obtained from patients submitted to one of the two techniques. Two groups of 30 patients each were included in this study. All patients had mammographies taken at 12 and 24 months after finishing treatment. The mammography findings evaluated were: cutaneous thickening (>2 mm), architectural distortion secondary to fibrosis, edema, calcifications (both benign and malignant), and fat necrosis. For all variables studied, there was no statistical difference between the two groups. This indicates that the mammography findings obtained in either 12- or 24-month follow-up periods after breast cancer conserving surgery are similar, regardless of which of the two radiotherapy techniques (ELIOT or RT) is employed as a treatment for breast cancer. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.