Simulation supplements field studies to determine no-till dryland corn population recommendations for semiarid western Nebraska

In a 2-yr multiple-site field study conducted in western Nebraska during 1999 and 2000, optimum dryland corn (Zea mays L.) population varied from less than 1.7 to more than 5.6 plants m(-2), depending largely on available water resources. The objective of this study was to use a modeling approach to investigate corn population recommendations for a wide range of seasonal variation. A corn growth simulation model (APSIM-maize) was coupled to long-term sequences of historical climatic data from western Nebraska to provide probabilistic estimates of dryland yield for a range of corn populations. Simulated populations ranged from 2 to 5 plants m(-2). Simulations began with one of three levels of available soil water at planting, either 80, 160, or 240 mm in the surface 1.5 m of a loam soil. Gross margins were maximized at 3 plants m(-2) when starting available water was 160 or 240 mm, and the expected probability of a financial loss at this population was reduced from about 10% at 160 mm to 0% at 240 mm. When starting available water was 80 mm, average gross margins were less than $15 ha(-1), and risk of financial loss exceeded 40%. Median yields were greatest when starting available soil water was 240 mm. However, perhaps the greater benefit of additional soil water at planting was reduction in the risk of making a financial loss. Dryland corn growers in western Nebraska are advised to use a population of 3 plants m(-2) as a base recommendation.

Genotype and environment effects on dynamics of harvest index during grain filling in sorghum

An approach based on a linear rate of increase in harvest index (141) with time after anthesis has been used as a simple means-to predict grain growth and yield in many crop simulation models. When applied to diverse situations, however, this approach has been found to introduce significant error in grain yield predictions. Accordingly, this study was undertaken to examine the stability of the HI approach for yield prediction in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. Four field experiments were conducted under nonlimiting water. and N conditions. The experiments were sown at times that ensured a broad range in temperature and radiation conditions. Treatments consisted of two population densities and three genotypes varying in maturity. Frequent sequential harvests were used to monitor crop growth, yield, and the dynamics of 111. Experiments varied greatly in yield and final HI. There was also a tendency for lower HI with later maturity. Harvest index dynamics also varied among experiments and, to a lesser extent, among treatments within experiments. The variation was associated mostly with the linear rate of increase in HI and timing of cessation of that increase. The average rate of HI increase was 0.0198 d(-1), but this was reduced considerably (0.0147) in one experiment that matured in cool conditions. The variations found in IN dynamics could be largely explained by differences in assimilation during grain filling and remobilization of preanthesis assimilate. We concluded that this level of variation in HI dynamics limited the general applicability of the HI approach in yield prediction and suggested a potential alternative for testing.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Alterations of neocortical pyramidal cell phenotype in the Ts65Dn mouse model of Down syndrome: Effects of environmental enrichment

Mental retardation in individuals with Down syndrome (DS) is thought to result from anomalous development and function of the brain; however, the underlying neuropathological processes have yet to be determined. Early implementation of special care programs result in limited, and temporary, cognitive improvements in DS individuals. In the present study, we investigated the possible neural correlates of these limited improvements. More specifically, we studied cortical pyramidal cells in the frontal cortex of Ts65Dn mice, a partial trisomy of murine chromosome 16 (MMU16) model characterized by cognitive deficits, hyperactivity, behavioral disruption and reduced attention levels similar to those observed in DS, and their control littermates. Animals were raised either in a standard or in an enriched environment. Environmental enrichment had a marked effect on pyramidal cell structure in control animals. Pyramidal cells in environmentally enriched control animals were significantly more branched and more spinous than non-enriched controls. However, environmental enrichment had little effect on pyramidal cell structure in Ts65Dn mice. As each dendritic spine receives at least one excitatory input, differences in the number of spines found in the dendritic arbors of pyramidal cells in the two groups reflect differences in the number of excitatory inputs they receive and, consequently, complexity in cortical circuitry. The present results suggest that behavioral deficits demonstrated in the Ts65Dn model could be attributed to abnormal circuit development.

Structural characterization of respiratory syncytial virus fusion inhibitor escape mutants: homology model of the F protein and a syncytium formation assay

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a ubiquitous human pathogen and the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in infants. Infection of cells and subsequent formation of syncytia occur through membrane fusion mediated by the RSV fusion protein (RSV-F). A novel in vitro assay of recombinant RSV-F function has been devised and used to characterize a number of escape mutants for three known inhibitors of RSV-F that have been isolated. Homology modeling of the RSV-F structure has been carried out on the basis of a chimera derived from the crystal structures of the RSV-F core and a fragment from the orthologous fusion protein from Newcastle disease virus (NDV). The structure correlates well with the appearance of RSV-F in electron micrographs, and the residues identified as contributing to specific binding sites for several monoclonal antibodies are arranged in appropriate solvent-accessible clusters. The positions of the characterized resistance mutants in the model structure identify two promising regions for the design of fusion inhibitors. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

On the evaluation of some differential formulations for the pom-pom constitutive model

In recent years, progress has been made in modelling long chain branched polymers by the introduction of the so-called pompom model. Initially developed by McLeish and Larson (1998), the model has undergone several improvements or alterations, leading to the development of new formulations. Some of these formulations however suffer from certain mathematical defects. The purpose of the present paper is to review some of the formulations of the pom-pom constitutive model, and to investigate their possible mathematical defects. Next, an alternative formulation is proposed, which does not appear to exhibit mathematical defects, and we explore its modelling performance by comparing the predictions with experiments in non-trivial rheometric flows of an LDPE melt. The selected rheometric flows are the double step strain, as well as the large amplitude oscillatory shear experiments. For LAOS experiments, the comparison involves the use of Fourier-transform analysis.

Evaluating a model of parental influence on youth physical activity

Objective: To test a conceptual model linking parental physical activity orientations, parental support for physical activity, and children's self-efficacy perceptions with physical activity participation. Participants and Setting: The sample consisted of 380 students in grades 7 through 12 (mean age, 14.0 +/- 1.6 years) and their parents. Data collection took place during the fall of 1996. Main Outcome Measures: Parents completed a questionnaire assessing their physical activity habits, enjoyment of physical activity, beliefs regarding the importance of physical activity, and supportive behaviors for their child's physical activity. Students completed a 46-item inventory assessing physical activity during the previous 7 days and a 5-item physical activity self-efficacy scale. The model was tested via observed variable path analysis using structural equation modeling techniques (AMOS 4.0). Results: An initial model, in which parent physical activity orientations predicted child physical activity via parental support and child self-efficacy, did not provide an acceptable fit to the data. Inclusion of a direct path from parental support to child physical activity and deletion of a nonsignificant path from parental physical activity to child physical activity significantly improved model fit. Standardized path coefficients for the revised model ranged from 0.17 to 0.24, and all were significant at the p < 0.0001 level. Conclusions: Parental support was an important correlate of youth physical activity, acting directly or indirectly through its influence on self-efficacy. Physical activity interventions targeted at youth should include and evaluate the efficacy of individual-level and community-level strategies to increase parents' capacity to provide instrumental and motivational support for their children's physical activity.

Phase equilibria and surface tension of pure fluids using a molecular layer structure theory (MLST) model

This paper presents a new model based on thermodynamic and molecular interaction between molecules to describe the vapour-liquid phase equilibria and surface tension of pure component. The model assumes that the bulk fluid can be characterised as set of parallel layers. Because of this molecular structure, we coin the model as the molecular layer structure theory (MLST). Each layer has two energetic components. One is the interaction energy of one molecule of that layer with all surrounding layers. The other component is the intra-layer Helmholtz free energy, which accounts for the internal energy and the entropy of that layer. The equilibrium between two separating phases is derived from the minimum of the grand potential, and the surface tension is calculated as the excess of the Helmholtz energy of the system. We test this model with a number of components, argon, krypton, ethane, n-butane, iso-butane, ethylene and sulphur hexafluoride, and the results are very satisfactory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A kinetic study of the thermally initiated free radical reactions of styrene with octanedithiol as a model for the reactions of multifunctional thiols with divinylbenzene

The kinetics of chain reactions of octanedithiol with styrene, thermally initiated with TX29B50 (a 50:50 wt% solution of TX29 diperoxy initiator in a phthalate plasticizer), have been studied over a range of initiator concentrations, a range of mixture formulations and a range of temperatures. This system has been investigated as a model system for the reactions of polyfunctional thiols with divinyl benzene. The reactions have been shown to follow first-order kinetics for both the thiol and the ene species and to be characterized by a dependence on the initiator concentration to the power of one half. The kinetic rate parameters have been shown to adhere to Arrhenius behaviour. A kinetic model for the chain reactions for this system has been proposed. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

The application of wave induced forces to a two-dimensional finite element long wave hydrodynamic model

This paper describes the modification of a two-dimensional finite element long wave hydrodynamic model in order to predict the net current and water levels attributable to the influences of waves. Tests examine the effects of the application of wave induced forces, including comparisons to a physical experiment. An example of a real river system is presented with comparisons to measured data, which demonstrate the importance of simulating the combined effects of tides and waves upon hydrodynamic behavior. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toxicological aspects of treatment to remove cyanobacterial toxins from drinking water determined using the heterozygous P53 transgenic mouse model

The presence of toxic cyanobacteria in drinking water reservoirs renders the need to develop treatment methods for the 'safe' removal of their associated toxins. Chlorine has been shown to successfully remove a range of cyanotoxins including microcystins, cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxins. Each cyanotoxin requires specific treatment parameters, particularly solution pH and free chlorine residual. However, currently there has not been any investigation into the toxicological effect of solutions treated for the removal of these cyanotoxins by chlorine. Using the P53(def) transgenic mouse model mate and female C57BL/6J hybrid mice were used to investigate potential cancer inducing effects from such oral dosing solutions. Both purified cyanotoxins and toxic cell-free extract cyanobacterial solutions were chlorinated and administered over 90 and 170 days (respectively) in drinking water. No increase in cancer was found in any treatment. The parent cyanotoxins, microcystins, cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxins were readily removed by chlorine. There was no significant increase in the disinfection byproducts trihalomethanes or haloacetic acids, levels found were well below guideline values. Histological examination identified no effect of treatment solutions except male mice treated with chlorinated cylindrospermopsin (as a cell free extract). In this instance 40% of males were found to have fatty vacuolation in their livers, cause unknown. It is recommended that further toxicology be undertaken on chlorinated cyanobacterial solutions, particularly for non-genotoxic carcinogenic compounds, for example the Tg. AC transgenic mouse model. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Análise espacial do padrão de introdução e disseminação da dengue nos municípios do Espírito Santo

O número de municípios infestados pelo Aedes aegypti no Estado do Espírito Santo vem aumentando gradativamente, levando a altas taxas de incidência de dengue ao longo dos anos. Apesar das tentativas de combate à doença, esta se tornou uma das maiores preocupações na saúde pública do Estado. Este estudo se propõe a descrever a dinâmica da expansão da doença no Estado a partir da associação entre variáveis ambientais e populacionais, utilizando dados operacionalizados por meio de técnicas de geoprocessamento. O estudo utilizou como fonte de dados a infestação pelo mosquito vetor e o coeficiente de incidência da doença, as distâncias rodoviárias intermunicipais do Estado, a altitude dos municípios e as variáveis geoclimáticas (temperatura e suficiência de água), incorporadas a uma ferramenta operacional, as Unidades Naturais do Espírito Santo (UNES), representadas em um único mapa operacionalizado em Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), obtido a partir do Sistema Integrado de Bases Georreferenciadas do Estado do Espírito Santo. Para análise dos dados, foi realizada a Regressão de Poisson para os dados de incidência de dengue e Regressão Logística para os de infestação pelo vetor. Em seguida, os dados de infestação pelo mosquito e incidência de dengue foram georreferenciados, utilizando como ferramenta operacional o SIG ArcGIS versão 9.2. Observou-se que a pluviosidade é um fator que contribui para o surgimento de mosquito em áreas não infestadas. Altas temperaturas contribuem para um alto coeficiente de incidência de dengue nos municípios capixabas. A variável distância em relação a municípios populosos é um fator de proteção para a incidência da doença. A grande variabilidade encontrada nos dados, que não é explicada pelas variáveis utilizadas no modelo para incidência da doença, reforça a premissa de que a dengue é condicionada pela interação dinâmica entre muitas variáveis que o estudo não abordou. A espacialização dos dados de infestação pelo mosquito e incidência de dengue e as Zonas Naturais do ES permitiu a visualização da influência das variáveis estatisticamente significantes nos modelos utilizados no padrão da introdução e disseminação da doença no Estado.