1000 resultados para C ... f, B ... n.
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The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.
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The presence of hydrogen in polysilicon films obtained at low temperatures by hot-wire CVD and the post-deposition oxidation by air-exposure of the films are studied in this paper. The experimental results from several characterization techniques (infrared spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, secondary ion mass spectrometry and wavelength dispersive spectroscopy) showed that hydrogen and oxygen are homogeneously distributed at grain boundaries throughout the depth of the films. Hydrogen is introduced during the growth process and its concentration is higher in samples deposited at lower temperatures. Oxygen diffuses along the grain boundaries and binds to silicon atoms, mainly in Si 2O groups.
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BACKGROUND: To ensure vaccines safety, given the weaknesses of the national pharmacovigilance system in Cameroon, there is a need to identify effective interventions that can contribute to improving AEFI reporting. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of: (i) sending weekly SMS, or (ii) weekly supervisory visits on AEFI reporting rate during a meningitis immunization campaign conducted in Cameroon in 2012 using the meningitis A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac?). METHODS: Health facilities that met the inclusion criteria were randomly assigned to receive: (i) a weekly standardized SMS, (ii) a weekly standardized supervisory visits or (iii) no intervention. The primary outcome was the reported AEFI incidence rate from week 5 to 8 after the immunization campaign. Poisson regression model was used to estimate the effect of interventions after adjusting for health region, type of health facility, type and position of health workers as well as the cumulative number of AEFI reported from weeks 1 to 4. RESULTS: A total of 348 (77.2%) of 451 health facility were included, and 116 assigned to each of three groups. The incidence rate of reported AEFI per 100 health facility per week was 20.0 (15.9-24.1) in the SMS group, 40.2 (34.4-46.0) in supervision group and 13.6 (10.1-16.9) in the control group. Supervision led to a significant increase of AEFI reporting rate compared to SMS [adjusted RR=2.1 (1.6-2.7); p<0.001] and control [RR=2.8(2.1-3.7); p<0.001)] groups. The effect of SMS led to some increase in AEFI reporting rate compared to the control group, but the difference was not statistically significant [RR=1.4(0.8-1.6); p=0.07)]. CONCLUSION: Supervision was more effective than SMS or routine surveillance in improving AEFI reporting rate. It should be part of any AEFI surveillance system. SMS could be useful in improving AEFI reporting rates but strategies need to be found to improve its effectiveness, and thus maximize its benefits.
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Approaches exploiting trait distribution extremes may be used to identify loci associated with common traits, but it is unknown whether these loci are generalizable to the broader population. In a genome-wide search for loci associated with the upper versus the lower 5th percentiles of body mass index, height and waist-to-hip ratio, as well as clinical classes of obesity, including up to 263,407 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 4 new loci (IGFBP4, H6PD, RSRC1 and PPP2R2A) influencing height detected in the distribution tails and 7 new loci (HNF4G, RPTOR, GNAT2, MRPS33P4, ADCY9, HS6ST3 and ZZZ3) for clinical classes of obesity. Further, we find a large overlap in genetic structure and the distribution of variants between traits based on extremes and the general population and little etiological heterogeneity between obesity subgroups.
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The distribution of immunoreactivity for the neurofilament triplet class of intermediate filament proteins was examined in the hippocampus of young, adult and elderly control cases and compared to that of Alzheimer's disease cases. In a similar fashion to non-human mammalian species, pyramidal neurons in the CA1 region showed a very low degree of neurofilament triplet immunoreactivity in the three younger control cases examined. However, in the other control cases of 49 years of age and older, many CA1 pyramidal neurons showed elevated neurofilament immunoreactivity. In the Alzheimer's disease cases, most of the surviving CA1 neurons showed intense labeling for the neurofilament triplet proteins, with many of these neurons giving off abnormal "sprouting" processes. Double labeling demonstrated that many of these neurons contained tangle-like or granular material that was immunoreactive for abnormal forms of tau and stained with thioflavine S, indicating that these neurons are in a transitional degenerative stage. An antibody to phosphorylated neurofilament proteins labeled a subset of neurofibrillary tangles in the Alzheimer's disease cases. However, following formic acid pre-treatment, the number of neurofibrillary tangles showing phosphorylated neurofilament protein immunoreactivity increased, with double labeling confirming that all of the tau-immunoreactive neurofibrillary tangles were also immunoreactive for phosphorylated neurofilament proteins. Immunoblotting demonstrated that there was a proportionately greater amount of the neurofilament triplet subunit proteins in hippocampal tissue from Alzheimer's disease cases as compared to controls. These results indicate that there are changes in the cytoskeleton of CA1 neurons associated with age which are likely to involve an increase in the level of neurofilament proteins and may be a predisposing factor contributing towards their high degree of vulnerability in degenerative conditions such as Alzheimer's disease. The cellular factors affecting hippocampal neurons during aging may be potentiated in Alzheimer's disease to result in even higher levels of intracellular neurofilament proteins and the progressive alterations of neurofilaments and other cytoskeletal proteins that finally results in neurofibrillary tangle formation and cellular degeneration.
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Visible up-conversion in ZnO:Er and ZnO:Er:Yb thin films deposited by RF magnetron sputtering under different O2-rich atmospheres has been studied. Conventional photoluminescence (325 nm laser source) and up-conversion (980 nm laser source) have been performed in the films before and after an annealing process at 800 °C. The resulting spectra demonstrate that the thermal treatment, either during or post-deposition, activates optically the Er3+ ions, being the latter process much more efficient. Moreover, the atmosphere during deposition was also found to be an important parameter, as the deposition under O2 flow increases the optical activity of Er+3 ions. In addition, the inclusion of Yb3+ ions into the films has shown an enhancement of the visible up-conversion emission at 660 nm by a factor of 4, which could be associated to either a better energy transfer from the 2F5/2 Yb level to the 4I11/2 Er one, or to the prevention of having Er2O3 clustering in the films.
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Forecasting coal resources and reserves is critical for coal mine development. Thickness maps are commonly used for assessing coal resources and reserves; however they are limited for capturing coal splitting effects in thick and heterogeneous coal zones. As an alternative, three-dimensional geostatistical methods are used to populate facies distributionwithin a densely drilled heterogeneous coal zone in the As Pontes Basin (NWSpain). Coal distribution in this zone is mainly characterized by coal-dominated areas in the central parts of the basin interfingering with terrigenous-dominated alluvial fan zones at the margins. The three-dimensional models obtained are applied to forecast coal resources and reserves. Predictions using subsets of the entire dataset are also generated to understand the performance of methods under limited data constraints. Three-dimensional facies interpolation methods tend to overestimate coal resources and reserves due to interpolation smoothing. Facies simulation methods yield similar resource predictions than conventional thickness map approximations. Reserves predicted by facies simulation methods are mainly influenced by: a) the specific coal proportion threshold used to determine if a block can be recovered or not, and b) the capability of the modelling strategy to reproduce areal trends in coal proportions and splitting between coal-dominated and terrigenousdominated areas of the basin. Reserves predictions differ between the simulation methods, even with dense conditioning datasets. Simulation methods can be ranked according to the correlation of their outputs with predictions from the directly interpolated coal proportion maps: a) with low-density datasets sequential indicator simulation with trends yields the best correlation, b) with high-density datasets sequential indicator simulation with post-processing yields the best correlation, because the areal trends are provided implicitly by the dense conditioning data.
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Introduction. Preclinical and clinical evidences for a role of oral probiotics in the management of allergic diseases are emerging. Aim. We aimed at testing the immunomodulatory effects of intranasal versus intragastric administration of Lactobacillus paracasei NCC2461 in a mouse model of allergic airway inflammation and the specificity of different probiotics by comparing L. paracasei NCC2461 to Lactobacillus plantarum NCC1107. Methods. L. paracasei NCC2461 or L. plantarum NCC1107 strains were administered either intragastrically (NCC2461) or intranasally (NCC2461 or NCC1107) to OVA-sensitized mice challenged with OVA aerosols. Inflammatory cell recruitment into BALF, eotaxin and IL-5 production in the lungs were measured. Results. Intranasal L. paracasei NCC2461 efficiently protected sensitized mice upon exposure to OVA aerosols in a dose-dependent manner as compared to control mice. Inflammatory cell number, eotaxin and IL-5 were significantly reduced in BALF. Intranasal supplementation of L. paracasei NCC2461 was more potent than intragastric application in limiting the allergic response and possibly linked to an increase in T regulatory cells in the lungs. Finally, intranasal L. plantarum NCC1107 reduced total and eosinophilic lung inflammation, but increased neutrophilia and macrophages infiltration. Conclusion. A concerted selection of intervention schedule, doses, and administration routes (intranasal versus intragastric) may markedly contribute to modulate airway inflammation in a probiotic strain-specific manner.
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A change in paradigm is needed in the prevention of toxic effects on the nervous system, moving from its present reliance solely on data from animal testing to a prediction model mostly based on in vitro toxicity testing and in silico modeling. According to the report published by the National Research Council (NRC) of the US National Academies of Science, high-throughput in vitro tests will provide evidence for alterations in"toxicity pathways" as the best possible method of large scale toxicity prediction. The challenges to implement this proposal are enormous, and provide much room for debate. While many efforts address the technical aspects of implementing the vision, many questions around it need also to be addressed. Is the overall strategy the only one to be pursued? How can we move from current to future paradigms? Will we ever be able to reliably model for chronic and developmental neurotoxicity in vitro? This paper summarizes four presentations from a symposium held at the International Neurotoxicology Conference held in Xi"an, China, in June 2011. A. Li reviewed the current guidelines for neurotoxicity and developmental neurotoxicity testing, and discussed the major challenges existing to realize the NCR vision for toxicity testing. J. Llorens reviewed the biology of mammalian toxic avoidance in view of present knowledge on the physiology and molecular biology of the chemical senses, taste and smell. This background information supports the hypothesis that relating in vivo toxicity to chemical epitope descriptors that mimic the chemical encoding performed by the olfactory system may provide a way to the long term future of complete in silico toxicity prediction. S. Ceccatelli reviewed the implementation of rodent and human neural stem cells (NSCs) as models for in vitro toxicity testing that measures parameters such as cell proliferation, differentiation and migration. These appear to be sensitive endpoints that can identify substances with developmental neurotoxic potential. C. Sun ol reviewed the use of primary neuronal cultures in testing for neurotoxicity of environmental pollutants, including the study of the effects of persistent exposures and/or in differentiating cells, which allow recording of effects that can be extrapolated to human developmental neurotoxicity.
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'Neurotoxicity and Neurodegeneration: Local Effect and Global Impact' was the theme of the Xi"an International Neurotoxicology Conference (XINC), held in Xi"an, June 2011. The Conference was a joint event of the 13th Biennial Meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association (INA-13) and the 11th International Symposium on Neurobehavioral Methods and Effects in Occupational and Environmental Health (NEUREOH-11) of the Scientific Committee on Neurotoxicology and...
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'Neurotoxicity and Neurodegeneration: Local Effect and Global Impact' was the theme of the Xi"an International Neurotoxicology Conference (XINC), held in Xi"an, June 2011. The Conference was a joint event of the 13th Biennial Meeting of the International Neurotoxicology Association (INA-13) and the 11th International Symposium on Neurobehavioral Methods and Effects in Occupational and Environmental Health (NEUREOH-11) of the Scientific Committee on Neurotoxicology and...
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Aldosterone and corticosterone bind to mineralocorticoid (MR) and glucocorticoid receptors (GR), which, upon ligand binding, are thought to translocate to the cell nucleus to act as transcription factors. Mineralocorticoid selectivity is achieved by the 11 46;-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 2 (11946;-HSD2) that inactivates 11 46;-hydroxy glucocorticoids. High expression levels of 11946;-HSD2 characterize the aldosterone-sensitive distal nephron (ASDN), which comprises the segment-specific cells of late distal convoluted tubule (DCT2), connecting tubule (CNT), and collecting duct (CD). We used MR- and GR-specific antibodies to study localization and regulation of MR and GR in kidneys of rats with altered plasma aldosterone and corticosterone levels. In control rats, MR and GR were found in cell nuclei of thick ascending limb (TAL), DCT, CNT, CD cells, and intercalated cells (IC). GR was also abundant in cell nuclei and the subapical compartment of proximal tubule (PT) cells. Dietary NaCl loading, which lowers plasma aldosterone, caused a selective removal of GR from cell nuclei of 11 46;-HSD2-positive ASDN. The nuclear localization of MR was unaffected. Adrenalectomy (ADX) resulted in removal of MR and GR from the cell nuclei of all epithelial cells. Aldosterone replacement rapidly relocated the receptors in the cell nuclei. In ASDN cells, low-dose corticosterone replacement caused nuclear localization of MR, but not of GR. The GR was redistributed to the nucleus only in PT, TAL, early DCT, and IC that express no or very little 11946;-HSD2. In ASDN cells, nuclear GR localization was only achieved when corticosterone was replaced at high doses. Thus ligand-induced nuclear translocation of MR and GR are part of MR and GR regulation in the kidney and show remarkable segment- and cell type-specific characteristics. Differential regulation of MR and GR may alter the level of heterodimerization of the receptors and hence may contribute to the complexity of corticosteroid effects on ASDN function.
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Although the precise signaling mechanisms underlying the vulnerability of some sub-populations of motoneurons in ALS remain unclear, critical factors such as metallo-proteinase 9 expression, neuronal activity and endoplasmic reticulum stress have been shown to be involved. In the context of SOD1(G93A) ALS mouse model, we previously showed that a two-fold decrease in calreticulin (CRT) is occurring in the vulnerable fast motoneurons. Here, we asked to which extent the decrease in CRT levels was causative to muscle denervation and/or motoneuron degeneration. Toward this goal, a hemizygous deletion of the crt gene in SOD1(G93A) mice was generated since the complete ablation of crt is embryonic lethal. We observed that SOD1(G93A);crt(+/-) mice display increased and earlier muscle weakness and muscle denervation compared to SOD1(G93A) mice. While CRT reduction in motoneurons leads to a strong upregulation of two factors important in motoneuron dysfunction, ER stress and mTOR activation, it does not aggravate motoneuron death. Our results underline a prevalent role for CRT levels in the early phase of muscle denervation and support CRT regulation as a potential therapeutic approach.
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Adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in breast cancer are increasingly based on the pathologist's assessment of tumor proliferation. The Swiss Working Group of Gyneco- and Breast Pathologists has surveyed inter- and intraobserver consistency of Ki-67-based proliferative fraction in breast carcinomas. METHODS: Five pathologists evaluated MIB-1-labeling index (LI) in ten breast carcinomas (G1, G2, G3) by counting and eyeballing. In the same way, 15 pathologists all over Switzerland then assessed MIB-1-LI on three G2 carcinomas, in self-selected or pre-defined areas of the tumors, comparing centrally immunostained slides with slides immunostained in the different laboratoires. To study intra-observer variability, the same tumors were re-examined 4 months later. RESULTS: The Kappa values for the first series of ten carcinomas of various degrees of differentiation showed good to very good agreement for MIB-1-LI (Kappa 0.56-0.72). However, we found very high inter-observer variabilities (Kappa 0.04-0.14) in the read-outs of the G2 carcinomas. It was not possible to explain the inconsistencies exclusively by any of the following factors: (i) pathologists' divergent definitions of what counts as a positive nucleus (ii) the mode of assessment (counting vs. eyeballing), (iii) immunostaining technique, and (iv) the selection of the tumor area in which to count. Despite intensive confrontation of all participating pathologists with the problem, inter-observer agreement did not improve when the same slides were re-examined 4 months later (Kappa 0.01-0.04) and intra-observer agreement was likewise poor (Kappa 0.00-0.35). CONCLUSION: Assessment of mid-range Ki-67-LI suffers from high inter- and intra-observer variability. Oncologists should be aware of this caveat when using Ki-67-LI as a basis for treatment decisions in moderately differentiated breast carcinomas.