Impact of an abrupt cooling event on interglacial methane emissions in northern peatlands

Rapid changes in atmospheric methane (CH4), temperature and precipitation are documented by Greenland ice core data both for glacial times (the so called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events) as well as for a cooling event in the early Holocene (the 8.2 kyr event). The onsets of D-O warm events are paralleled by abrupt increases in CH4 by up to 250 ppb in a few decades. Vice versa, the 8.2 kyr event is accompanied by an intermittent decrease in CH4 of about 80 ppb over 150 yr. The abrupt CH4 changes are thought to mainly originate from source emission variations in tropical and boreal wet ecosystems, but complex process oriented bottom-up model estimates of the changes in these ecosystems during rapid climate changes are still missing. Here we present simulations of CH4 emissions from northern peatlands with the LPJ-Bern dynamic global vegetation model. The model represents CH4 production and oxidation in soils and transport by ebullition, through plant aerenchyma, and by diffusion. Parameters are tuned to represent site emission data as well as inversion-based estimates of northern wetland emissions. The model is forced with climate input data from freshwater hosing experiments using the NCAR CSM1.4 climate model to simulate an abrupt cooling event. A concentration reduction of ~10 ppb is simulated per degree K change of mean northern hemispheric surface temperature in peatlands. Peatland emissions are equally sensitive to both changes in temperature and in precipitation. If simulated changes are taken as an analogy to the 8.2 kyr event, boreal peatland emissions alone could only explain 23 of the 80 ppb decline in atmospheric methane concentration. This points to a significant contribution to source changes from low latitude and tropical wetlands to this event.

The response of atmospheric nitrous oxide to climate variations during the last glacial period

Detailed insight into natural variations of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) in response to changes in the Earth's climate system is provided by new measurements along the ice core of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP). The presented record reaches from the early Holocene back into the previous interglacial with a mean time resolution of about 75 years. Between 11 and 120 kyr BP, atmospheric N2O concentrations react substantially to the last glacial-interglacial transition (Termination 1) and millennial time scale climate variations of the last glacial period. For long-lasting Dansgaard/Oeschger (DO) events, the N2O increase precedes Greenland temperature change by several hundred years with an increase rate of about 0.8-1.3 ppbv/century, which accelerates to about 3.8-10.7 ppbv/century at the time of the rapid warming in Greenland. Within each bundle of DO events, the new record further reveals particularly low N2O concentrations at the approximate time of Heinrich events. This suggests that the response of marine and/or terrestrial N2O emissions on a global scale are different for stadials with and without Heinrich events.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Greenland accumulation and its connection to the large-scale atmospheric circulation in ERA-Interim and paleoclimate simulations

Changes in Greenland accumulation and the stability in the relationship between accumulation variability and large-scale circulation are assessed by performing time-slice simulations for the present day, the preindustrial era, the early Holocene, and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with a comprehensive climate model. The stability issue is an important prerequisite for reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation variability based on accumulation or precipitation proxy records from Greenland ice cores. The analysis reveals that the relationship between accumulation variability and large-scale circulation undergoes a significant seasonal cycle. As the contributions of the individual seasons to the annual signal change, annual mean accumulation variability is not necessarily related to the same atmospheric circulation patterns during the different climate states. Interestingly, within a season, local Greenland accumulation variability is indeed linked to a consistent circulation pattern, which is observed for all studied climate periods, even for the LGM. Hence, it would be possible to deduce a reliable reconstruction of seasonal atmospheric variability (e.g., for North Atlantic winters) if an accumulation or precipitation proxy were available that resolves single seasons. We further show that the simulated impacts of orbital forcing and changes in the ice sheet topography on Greenland accumulation exhibit strong spatial differences, emphasizing that accumulation records from different ice core sites regarding both interannual and long-term (centennial to millennial) variability cannot be expected to look alike since they include a distinct local signature. The only uniform signal to external forcing is the strong decrease in Greenland accumulation during glacial (LGM) conditions and an increase associated with the recent rise in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Iron fluxes to Talos Dome, Antarctica, over the past 200 kyr

Atmospheric fluxes of iron (Fe) over the past 200 kyr are reported for the coastal Antarctic Talos Dome ice core, based on acid leachable Fe concentrations. Fluxes of Fe to Talos Dome were consistently greater than those at Dome C, with the greatest difference observed during interglacial climates. We observe different Fe flux trends at Dome C and Talos Dome during the deglaciation and early Holocene, attributed to a combination of deglacial activation of dust sources local to Talos Dome and the reorganisation of atmospheric transport pathways with the retreat of the Ross Sea ice shelf. This supports similar findings based on dust particle sizes and fluxes and Rare Earth Element fluxes. We show that Ca and Fe should not be used as quantitative proxies for mineral dust, as they all demonstrate different deglacial trends at Talos Dome and Dome C. Considering that a 20 ppmv decrease in atmospheric CO2 at the coldest part of the last glacial maximum occurs contemporaneously with the period of greatest Fe and dust flux to Antarctica, we confirm that the maximum contribution of aeolian dust deposition to Southern Ocean sequestration of atmospheric CO2 is approximately 20 ppmv.�

Two-phase change in CO2, Antarctic temperature and global climate during Termination II

The end of the Last Glacial Maximum (Termination I), roughly 20 thousand years ago (ka), was marked by cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, a weakening of the Asian monsoon, a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and warming over Antarctica. The sequence of events associated with the previous glacial–interglacial transition (Termination II), roughly 136 ka, is less well constrained. Here we present high-resolution records of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and isotopic composition of N2—an atmospheric temperature proxy—from air bubbles in the EPICA Dome C ice core that span Termination II. We find that atmospheric CO2 concentrations and Antarctic temperature started increasing in phase around 136 ka, but in a second phase of Termination II, from 130.5 to 129 ka, the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations lagged that of Antarctic temperature unequivocally. We suggest that during this second phase, the intensification of the low-latitude hydrological cycle resulted in the development of a CO2 sink, which counteracted the CO2 outgassing from the Southern Hemisphere oceans over this period.

Can the carbon isotopic composition of methane be reconstructed from multi-site firn air measurements?

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and large uncertainties exist concerning the future evolution of its atmospheric abundance. Analyzing methane atmospheric mixing and stable isotope ratios in air trapped in polar ice sheets helps in reconstructing the evolution of its sources and sinks in the past. This is important to improve predictions of atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios in the future under the influence of a changing climate. The aim of this study is to assess whether past atmospheric δ13C(CH4) variations can be reliably reconstructed from firn air measurements. Isotope reconstructions obtained with a state of the art firn model from different individual sites show unexpectedly large discrepancies and are mutually inconsistent. We show that small changes in the diffusivity profiles at individual sites lead to strong differences in the firn fractionation, which can explain a large part of these discrepancies. Using slightly modified diffusivities for some sites, and neglecting samples for which the firn fractionation signals are strongest, a combined multi-site inversion can be performed, which returns an isotope reconstruction that is consistent with firn data. However, the isotope trends are lower than what has been concluded from Southern Hemisphere (SH) archived air samples and high-accumulation ice core data. We conclude that with the current datasets and understanding of firn air transport, a high precision reconstruction of δ13C of CH4 from firn air samples is not possible, because reconstructed atmospheric trends over the last 50 yr of 0.3–1.5 ‰ are of the same magnitude as inherent uncertainties in the method, which are the firn fractionation correction (up to ~2 ‰ at individual sites), the Kr isobaric interference (up to ~0.8 ‰, system dependent), inter-laboratory calibration offsets (~0.2 ‰) and uncertainties in past CH4 levels (~0.5 ‰).

Chronostratigraphy of the 600,000 year old continental record of Lake Van

Lake Van sediment cores from the Ahlat Ridge and Northern Basin drill sites of the ICDP project PALEOVAN contain a wealth of information about past environmental processes. The sedimentary sequence was dated using climatostratigraphic alignment, varve chronology, tephrostratigraphy, argon-argon single-crystal dating, radiocarbon dating, magnetostratigraphy, and cosmogenic nuclides. Based on the lithostratigraphic framework, the different age constraints are compiled and a robust and precise chronology of the 600,000 year-old Lake Van record is constructed. Proxy records of total organic carbon content and sediment color, together with the calcium/potassium-ratios and arboreal pollen percentages of the 174-meter-long Ahlat Ridge record, mimic the Greenland isotope stratotype (NGRIP). Therefore, the proxy records are systematically aligned to the onsets of interstadials reflected in the NGRIP or synthesized Greenland ice-core stratigraphy. The chronology is constructed using 27 age control points derived from visual synchronization with the GICC05 timescale, an absolutely-dated speleothem record (e.g., Hulu, Sanbao, Linzhu cave) and the Epica Dome C timescale. In addition, the uppermost part of the sequence is complemented with four ages from Holocene varve chronology and two calibrated radiocarbon ages. Furthermore, nine argon-argon ages and a comparison of the relative paleointensity record of the magnetic field with reference curve PISO-1500 confirm the accuracy of the age model. Also the identification of the Laschamp event via measurements of 10Be in the sediment confirms the presented age model. The chronology of the Ahlat Ridge record is transferred to the 79-meter-long event-corrected composite record from the Northern Basin and supplemented by additional radiocarbon dating on organic marco-remains. The basal age of the Northern Basin record is estimated at ~90 ka. The variations of the time series of total organic carbon content, the Ca/K ratio, and the arboreal pollen percentages illustrate that the presented chronology and paleoclimate data are suited for reconstructions and modeling of the Quaternary and Pleistocene climate evolution in the Near East at millennial timescales. Furthermore, the chronology of the last 250 kyr can be used to test other dating techniques.

GPR Reflection Profiles of Clark and Commonwealth Glaciers, Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Englacial horizons deeper than 100 m are absent within 100 MHz ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surface profiles we recorded on Clark and Commonwealth Glaciers in the Antarctic Dry Valleys region. Both glaciers show continuous bottom horizons to 280 m, with bottom signal-to-noise ratios near 30 dB. Density horizons should fade below 50 m depth because impermeable ice occurred by 36 m. Folding within Commonwealth Glacier could preclude radar strata beneath about 80 m depth, but there is no significant folding within Clark Glacier. Strong sulfate concentrations and contrasts exist in our shallow ice core. However, it appears that high background concentration levels, and possible decreased concentration contrasts with depth placed their corresponding reflection coefficients at the limit of, or below, our system sensitivity by about 77 m depth. Further verification of this conclusion awaits processing of our deep-core chemistry profiles.

Solar Forcing of the Polar Atmosphere

We present highly resolved, annually dated, calibrated proxies for atmospheric circulation from several Antarctic ice cores (ITASE (International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition), Siple Dome, Law Dome) that reveal decadal-scale associations with a South Pole ice-core Be-10 proxy for solar variability over the last 600 years and annual-scale associations with solar variability since AD 1720. We show that increased (decreased) solar irradiance is associated with increased (decreased) zonal wind strength near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex. The association is particularly strong in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and as such may contribute to understanding climate forcing that controls drought in Australia and other Southern Hemisphere climate events. We also include evidence suggestive of solar forcing of atmospheric circulation near the edge of the Arctic polar vortex based on ice-core records from Mount Logan, Yukon Territory, Canada, and both central and south Greenland as enticement for future investigations. Our identification of solar forcing of the polar atmosphere and its impact on lower latitudes offers a mechanism for better understanding modern climate variability and potentially the initiation of abrupt climate-change events that operate on decadal and faster scales.

Variability in Accumulation Rates from GPR Profiling on the West Antarctic Plateau

lsochronal layers in firn detected with ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and dated using results from ice-core analyses are used to calculate accumulation rates along a 100 km across-flow profile in West Antarctica. Accumulation rates are shown to be highly variable over short distances. Elevation measurements from global positioning system surveys show that accumulation rates derived from shallow horizons correlate well with surface undulations, which implies that wind redistribution of snow is the leading cause of this variability. Temporal changes in accumulation rate over 25-185 year intervals are smoothed to along-track length scales comparable to surface undulations in order to identify trends in accumulation that are likely related to changes in climate. Results show that accumulation rates along this profile have decreased in recent decades, which is consistent with core-derived time series of annual accumulation rates measured at the two ends of the radar profile. These results suggest that temporal variability observed in accumulation-rate records from ice cores and GPR profiles can be obscured by spatial influences, although it is possible to resolve temporal signals if the effects of local topography and ice flow are quantified and removed.

Snow Accumulation Rate on Qomolangma (Mount Everest), Himalaya: Synchroneity With Sites Across the Tibetan Plateau on 50-100 Year Timescales

Annual-layer thickness data, spanning AD 1534-2001, from an ice core from East Rongbuk Coll on Qomolangma (Mount Everest, Himalaya) yield an age-depth profile that deviates systematically from a constant accumulation-rate analytical model. The profile clearly shows that the mean accumulation rate has changed every 50-100 years. A numerical model was developed to determine the magnitude of these multi-decadal-scale rates. The model was used to obtain a time series of annual accumulation. The mean annual accumulation rate decreased from similar to 0.8 m ice equivalent in the 1500s to similar to 0.3 m in the mid-1800s. From similar to 1880 to similar to 1970 the rate increased. However, it has decreased since similar to 1970. Comparison with six other records from the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau shows that the changes in accumulation in East Rongbuk Col are broadly consistent with a regional pattern over much of the Plateau. This suggests that there may be an overarching mechanism controlling precipitation and mass balance over this area. However, a record from Dasuopu, only 125 km northwest of Qomolangma and 700 m higher than East Rongbuk Col, shows a maximum in accumulation during the 1800s, a time during which the East Rongbuk Col and Tibetan Plateau ice-core and tree-ring records show a minimum. This asynchroneity may be due to altitudinal or seasonal differences in monsoon versus westerly moisture sources or complex mountain meteorology.

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.

Sea Level Pressure Variability Over the Southern Indian Ocean Inferred from a Glaciochemical Record in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

A 250-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from LGB65 (70degrees50'07"S, 77degrees04'29"E; 1850 m asl), Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the southern Indian Ocean (SIO). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (EOF1) of the glaciochemical record from LGB65 represents most of the variability in sea salt throughout the 250-year record. EOF1 is negatively correlated (95% confidence level and higher) to instrumental mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at Kerguelen and New Amsterdam islands, SIO. On the basis of comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, strong correlations were found between sea-salt variations and a quasi-stationary low that lies to the north of Prydz Bay, SIO. Comparison with a 250-year-long summer transpolar index (STPI) inferred from sub-Antarctic tree ring records reveals strong coherency. Decadal-scale SLP variability over SIO suggests shifting of the polar vortex. Prominent decadal-scale deepening of the southern Indian Ocean low (SIOL) exists circa 1790, 1810, 1835, 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1940 A. D., continuously after the 1970s, and prominent weakening circa 1750, 1795, 1825, 1850, 1870, 1890, 1910, and 1955 A. D. The LGB65 sea-salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong similar to21-year periodic structure (99.9% confidence level). The relationship between LGB65 sea salt and solar irradiance changes shows that this periodicity is possibly the solar Hale cycle ( 22 years).

A New Technique for Firn Grain-Size Measurement Using SEM Image Analysis

Firn microstructure is accurately characterized using images obtained from scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Visibly etched grain boundaries within images are used to create a skeleton outline of the microstructure. A pixel-counting utility is applied to the outline to determine grain area. Firn grain sizes calculated using the technique described here are compared to those calculated using the techniques of Cow (1969) and Gay and Weiss (1999) on samples of the same material, and are found to be substantially smaller. The differences in grain size between the techniques are attributed to sampling deficiencies (e.g. the inclusion of pore filler in the grain area) in earlier methods. The new technique offers the advantages of greater accuracy and the ability to determine individual components of the microstructure (grain and pore), which have important applications in ice-core analyses. The new method is validated by calculating activation energies of grain boundary diffusion using predicted values based on the ratio of grain-size measurements between the new and existing techniques. The resulting activation energy falls within the range of values previously reported for firn/ice.