Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

Can Business Continuity Management Create Reliability in Airports? (Issues from Theory into Practice)

The advances made within the aviation industry over the past several decades have significantly improved the availability, affordability and convenience of air travel and have been greatly beneficial in both social and economic terms. Air transport has developed into an irreplaceable service being relied on by millions of people each day and as such airports have become critical elements of national infrastructure to facilitate the movement of people and goods. As components of critical infrastructure (CI), airports are integral parts of a national economy supporting regional as well as national trade, commercial activity and employment. Therefore, any disruption or crisis which impacts the continuity of operations at airports can have significant negative consequences for the airport as a business, for the local economy and other nodes of transport infrastructure as well as for society. Due to the highly dynamic and volatile environment in which airports operate in, the aviation industry has faced many different challenges over the years ranging from terrorist attacks such as September 11, to health crises such as the SARS epidemic to system breakdowns such as the recent computer system outage at Virgin Blue Airlines in Australia. All these events have highlighted the vulnerability of airport systems to a range of disturbances as well as the gravity and widespread impact of any kind of discontinuity in airport functions. Such incidents thus emphasise the need for increasing resilience and reliability of airports and ensuring business continuity in the event of a crisis...

Specification & design of safety technologies for complex socio-technical systems : low-cost level crossings case study

The introduction of safety technologies into complex socio-technical systems requires an integrated and holistic approach to HF and engineering, considering the effects of failures not only within system boundaries, but also at the interfaces with other systems and humans. Level crossing warning devices are examples of such systems where technically safe states within the system boundary can influence road user performance, giving rise to other hazards that degrade safety of the system. Chris will discuss the challenges that have been encountered to date in developing a safety argument in support of low-cost level crossing warning devices. The design and failure modes of level crossing warning devices are known to have a significant influence on road user performance; however, quantifying this effect is one of the ongoing challenges in determining appropriate reliability and availability targets for low-cost level crossing warning devices.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Food Production and Export

The global food system is undergoing unprecedented change. With population increases, demands for food globally will continue to rise at the same time that agricultural environments are compromised through urban encroachment, climate change and environmental degradation. Australia has long identified itself as an agricultural exporting nation—but what will its capacity be in feeding an increasing global population as it also comes to terms with extreme climatic events such as the floods, fires and droughts, and reduced water availability, experienced in recent decades? This chapter traces the history of Australian agricultural exports and evaluates its food production and export capacity against scientific predictions of climate change impacts. With the federal government forecasting declines in the production of wheat, beef, dairy and sugar, Australia’s key export commodities may well be compromised. Calls to produce more food using new technologies are likely to generate significant environmental problems. Yet, a radical reconfiguration of Australian agriculture which incorporates alternative approaches, such as agro-ecology, is rarely considered by government and industry.

Designing Web 2.0 ePortfolios for music postgraduate study : A practice-led enquiry

This article examines the design of ePortfolios for music postgraduate students utilizing a practice-led design iterative research process. It is suggested that the availability of Web 2.0 technologies such as blogs and social network software potentially provide creative artist with an opportunity to engage in a dialogue about art with artefacts of the artist products and processes present in that discussion. The design process applied Software Development as Research (SoDaR) methodology to simultaneously develop design and pedagogy. The approach to designing ePortfolio systems applied four theoretical protocols to examine the use of digitized artefacts to enable a dynamic and inclusive dialogue around representations of the students work. A negative case analysis identified a disjuncture between university access and control policy, and the relative openness of Web2.0 systems outside the institution that led to the design of an integrated model of ePortfolio.

Consensus σ70 promoter prediction using hadoop

MapReduce frameworks such as Hadoop are well suited to handling large sets of data which can be processed separately and independently, with canonical applications in information retrieval and sales record analysis. Rapid advances in sequencing technology have ensured an explosion in the availability of genomic data, with a consequent rise in the importance of large scale comparative genomics, often involving operations and data relationships which deviate from the classical Map Reduce structure. This work examines the application of Hadoop to patterns of this nature, using as our focus a wellestablished workflow for identifying promoters - binding sites for regulatory proteins - Across multiple gene regions and organisms, coupled with the unifying step of assembling these results into a consensus sequence. Our approach demonstrates the utility of Hadoop for problems of this nature, showing how the tyranny of the "dominant decomposition" can be at least partially overcome. It also demonstrates how load balance and the granularity of parallelism can be optimized by pre-processing that splits and reorganizes input files, allowing a wide range of related problems to be brought under the same computational umbrella.

UV Photodissociation Action Spectroscopy of Haloanilinium Ions in a Linear Quadrupole Ion Trap Mass Spectrometer

UV-vis photodissociation action spectroscopy is becoming increasingly prevalent because of advances in, and commercial availability of, ion trapping technologies and tunable laser sources. This study outlines in detail an instrumental arrangement, combining a commercial ion-trap mass spectrometer and tunable nanosecond pulsed laser source, for performing fully automated photodissociation action spectroscopy on gas-phase ions. The components of the instrumentation are outlined, including the optical and electronic interfacing, in addition to the control software for automating the experiment and performing online analysis of the spectra. To demonstrate the utility of this ensemble, the photodissociation action spectra of 4-chloroanilinium, 4-bromoanilinium, and 4-iodoanilinium cations are presented and discussed. Multiple photoproducts are detected in each case and the photoproduct yields are followed as a function of laser wavelength. It is shown that the wavelength-dependent partitioning of the halide loss, H loss, and NH3 loss channels can be broadly rationalized in terms of the relative carbon-halide bond dissociation energies and processes of energy redistribution. The photodissociation action spectrum of (phenyl)Ag-2 (+) is compared with a literature spectrum as a further benchmark.

End-of-life care in the intensive care unit : a systematic review of qualitative studies investigating the experiences and perceptions of the patient's family

Review question/objective The review objective is to synthesise the best available evidence on experiences and perceptions of family members of intensive care unit patients on the adequacy of end-of-life care, where life-support modalities have been withheld or withdrawn. Inclusion criteria Types of participants This review will consider studies that report on the experiences and perceptions of patients’ families on EOLC in the ICU, where life-support modalities have been withheld or withdrawn. The family is defined as “those who are closest to the patient... the family may include the biological family, family by acquisition, and the family of choice and friends”. Phenomena of interest The phenomena of interest for this review are the patients’ families experiences, perceptions or views on the adequacy of EOLC delivered in the ICU, where life-support modalities were withheld or withdrawn. These experiences may refer to the following views on domains of care considered important at the end-of-life in the ICU, which have been described already in the existing literature: timely, consistent, and compassionate communication, clinician availability, clinical decision making based on patients’ preferences, goals and values, physical care implemented to maintain patient comfort, holistic interdisciplinary care and bereavement care for families of patients who died.

Rethinking the effects paradigm in porn studies

It has been an assumption of most anti-pornography discourse that porn damages women (and children) in a variety of ways. In Porno? Chic!, the author interrogated this assumption by examining the correlation between the incidence of sexual violence and other indicators of misogyny, and the availability and accessibility of pornography within a number of societies. This article develops that work with a specific focus on the regulatory environment as it relates to pornography and sexual representation. Does a liberal regulatory regime in sexual culture correlate with a relatively advanced state of sexual politics in a given country? Conversely, does an illiberal regime, where pornography and other forms of sexual culture are banned or severely restricted, correlate with relatively strong patriarchal structures? A comparative cross-country analysis seeks to explain the correlations identified, and to assess the extent to which the availability of porn can be viewed as a causal or a consequential characteristic of those societies where feminism has achieved significant advances.

Landscape ecology of the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica

The Lesser Grain Borer is a major pest of stored grain with a global distribution. This project has, for the first time recorded this pest throughout broad spatial areas, tens of kilometres from grain production or storage. Statistical analysis revealed that different factors such as ambient temperature and the availability of food resources affect R. dominica differently between different habitats. This suggests that, contrary to the prevailing view, this pest is not solely dependent on stored wheat and can continue to persist throughout a range of habitats. These findings have important management implications for Australia's wheat industry.

Constrained control design for dynamic positioning of marine vehicles with control allocation

In this paper, we address the control design problem of positioning of over-actuated marine vehicles with control allocation. The proposed design is based on a combined position and velocity loops in a multi-variable anti-windup implementation together with a control allocation mapping. The vehicle modelling is considered with appropriate simplifications related to low-speed manoeuvring hydrodynamics and vehicle symmetry. The control design is considered together with a control allocation mapping. We derive analytical tuning rules based on requirements of closed-loop stability and performance. The anti- windup implementation of the controller is obtained by mapping the actuator-force constraint set into a constraint set for the generalized forces. This approach ensures that actuation capacity is not violated by constraining the generalized control forces; thus, the control allocation is simplified since it can be formulated as an unconstrained problem. The mapping can also be modified on-line based on actuator availability to provide actuator-failure accommodation. We provide a proof of the closed-loop stability and illustrate the performance using simulation scenarios for an open-frame underwater vehicle.

Using a public key registry for improved trust and scalability in national E-health systems

An increasing number of countries are faced with an aging population increasingly needing healthcare services. For any e-health information system, the need for increased trust by such clients with potentially little knowledge of any security scheme involved is paramount. In addition notable scalability of any system has become a critical aspect of system design, development and ongoing management. Meanwhile cryptographic systems provide the security provisions needed for confidentiality, authentication, integrity and non-repudiation. Cryptographic key management, however, must be secure, yet efficient and effective in developing an attitude of trust in system users. Digital certificate-based Public Key Infrastructure has long been the technology of choice or availability for information security/assurance; however, there appears to be a notable lack of successful implementations and deployments globally. Moreover, recent issues with associated Certificate Authority security have damaged trust in these schemes. This paper proposes the adoption of a centralised public key registry structure, a non-certificate based scheme, for large scale e-health information systems. The proposed structure removes complex certificate management, revocation and a complex certificate validation structure while maintaining overall system security. Moreover, the registry concept may be easier for both healthcare professionals and patients to understand and trust.

The Chemistry of Mycotoxins

Mycotoxins – from the Greek μύκης (mykes, mukos) “fungus” and the Latin (toxicum) “poison” – are a large and growing family of secondary metabolites and hence natural products produced by fungi, in particular by molds (1). It is estimated that well over 1,000 mycotoxins have been isolated and characterized so far, but this number will increase over the next few decades due the availability of more specialized analytical tools and the increasing number of fungi being isolated. However, the most important classes of fungi responsible for these compounds are Alternaria, Aspergillus (multiple forms), Penicillium, and Stachybotrys. The biological activity of mycotoxins ranges from weak and/or sometimes positive effects such as antibacterial activity (e.g. penicillin derivatives derived from Penicillium strains) to strong mutagenic (e.g. aflatoxins, patulin), carcinogenic (e.g. aflatoxins), teratogenic, neurotoxic (e.g. ochratoxins), nephrotoxic (e.g. fumonisins, citrinin), hepatotoxic, and immunotoxic (e.g. ochratoxins, diketopiperazines) activities (1, 2), which are discussed in detail in this volume.

Laboratory study on the performance of recycled concrete aggregates blended with reclaimed asphalt pavement as pavement granular material

Production of recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) from construction and demolition (C&D) waste has become popular all over the world since the availability of land spaces are limited to dispose. Therefore it is important to seek alternative applications for RCA. The use of RCA in base and sub-base layers in granular pavement is a viable solution. In mechanistic pavement design, rutting (permanent deformation) is considered as the major failure mechanisms of the pavement. The rutting is the accumulation of permanent deformation of pavement layers caused by the repetitive vehicle load. In Queensland, Australia, it is accepted to have the maximum of 20% of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) in RCA and therefore, it is important to investigate the effect of RAP on the permanent deformation properties of RCA. In this study, a series of repeated load triaxial (RLT) tests were conducted on RCA blended with different percentage of RAP to investigate the permanent deformation and resilient modulus properties of RCA. The vertical deformation and resilient modulus values were used to determine the response of RCA for the cyclic loading under standard pressure and loading conditions.