Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Distributed source analysis of the pattern onset visual evoked magnetic response

Distributed source analyses of half-field pattern onset visual evoked magnetic responses (VEMR) were carried out by the authors with a view to locating the source of the largest of the components, the CIIm. The analyses were performed using a series of realistic source spaces taking into account the anatomy of the visual cortex. Accuracy was enhanced by constraining the source distributions to lie within the visual cortex only. Further constraints on the source space yielded reliable, but possibly less meaningful, solutions.

Studies on the generalisation of Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks

The assessment of the reliability of systems which learn from data is a key issue to investigate thoroughly before the actual application of information processing techniques to real-world problems. Over the recent years Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have come to the fore and in this thesis their generalisation capabilities are analysed from theoretical and empirical perspectives. Upper and lower bounds on the learning curve of Gaussian processes are investigated in order to estimate the amount of data required to guarantee a certain level of generalisation performance. In this thesis we analyse the effects on the bounds and the learning curve induced by the smoothness of stochastic processes described by four different covariance functions. We also explain the early, linearly-decreasing behaviour of the curves and we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the upper bounds. The effect of the noise and the characteristic lengthscale of the stochastic process on the tightness of the bounds are also discussed. The analysis is supported by several numerical simulations. The generalisation error of a Gaussian process is affected by the dimension of the input vector and may be decreased by input-variable reduction techniques. In conventional approaches to Gaussian process regression, the positive definite matrix estimating the distance between input points is often taken diagonal. In this thesis we show that a general distance matrix is able to estimate the effective dimensionality of the regression problem as well as to discover the linear transformation from the manifest variables to the hidden-feature space, with a significant reduction of the input dimension. Numerical simulations confirm the significant superiority of the general distance matrix with respect to the diagonal one.In the thesis we also present an empirical investigation of the generalisation errors of neural networks trained by two Bayesian algorithms, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and the evidence framework; the neural networks have been trained on the task of labelling segmented outdoor images.

The impact of the introduction of visual display terminals on the job characteristics, job satisfaction and well-being of users in government offices

The proliferation of visual display terminals (VDTs) in offices is an international phenomenon. Numerous studies have investigated the health implications which can be categorised into visual problems, symptoms of musculo-skelctal discomfort, or psychosocial effects. The psychosocial effects are broader and there is mixed evidence in this area. The inconsistent results from the studies of VDT work so far undertaken may reflect several methodological shortcomings. In an attempt to overcome these deficiencies and to broaden the model of inter-relationships a model was developed to investigate their interactions and Ihc outputs of job satisfaction, stress and ill health. The study was a two-stage, long-term investigation with measures taken before the VDTs were introduced and the same measures taken 12 months after the 'go-live' date. The research was conducted in four offices of the Department of Social Security. The data were analysed for each individual site and in addition the total data were used in a path analysis model. Significant positive relationships were found at the pre-implementation stage between the musculo-skeletal discomfort, psychosomatic ailments, visual complaints and stress. Job satisfaction was negatively related to visual complaints and musculo-skeletal discomfort. Direct paths were found for age and job level with variety found in the job and age with job satisfaction and a negative relationship with the office environment. The only job characteristic which had a direct path to stress was 'dealing with others'. Similar inter-relationships were found in the post-implementation data. However, in addition attributes of the computer system, such as screen brightness and glare, were related positively with stress and negatively with job satisfaction. The comparison of the data at the two stages found that there had been no significant changes in the users' perceptions of their job characteristics and job satisfaction but there was a small and significant reduction in the stress measure.

Multiple paradigms and organisational research: an analysis of work behaviour in the fire service

The thesis examines Kuhn's (1962, 1970) concept of paradigm, assesses how it is employed for mapping intellectual terrain in the social sciences, and evaluates it's use in research based on multiple theory positions. In so doing it rejects both the theses of total paradigm 'incommensurability' (Kuhn, 1962), and also of liberal 'translation' (Popper, 1970), in favour of a middle ground through the 'language-game of everyday life' (Wittgenstein, 1953). The thesis ultimately argues for the possibility of being 'trained-into' new paradigms, given the premise that 'unorganised experience cannot order perception' (Phillips, 1977). In conducting multiple paradigm research the analysis uses the Burrell and Morgan (1979) model for examining the work organisation of a large provincial fire Service. This analysis accounts for firstly, a 'functionalist' assessment of work design, demonstrating inter alia the decrease in reported motivation with length of service; secondly, an 'interpretive' portrayal of the daily accomplishment of task routines, highlighting the discretionary and negotiated nature of the day's events; thirdly, a 'radical humanist' analysis of workplace ideology, demonstrating the hegemonic role of officer training practices; and finally, a 'radical structuralist' description of the labour process, focusing on the establishment of a 'normal working day'. Although the argument is made for the possibility of conducting multiple paradigm research, the conclusion stresses the many institutional pressures serving to offset development.

Finding structures in information networks using the affinity network

This thesis proposes a novel graphical model for inference called the Affinity Network,which displays the closeness between pairs of variables and is an alternative to Bayesian Networks and Dependency Networks. The Affinity Network shares some similarities with Bayesian Networks and Dependency Networks but avoids their heuristic and stochastic graph construction algorithms by using a message passing scheme. A comparison with the above two instances of graphical models is given for sparse discrete and continuous medical data and data taken from the UCI machine learning repository. The experimental study reveals that the Affinity Network graphs tend to be more accurate on the basis of an exhaustive search with the small datasets. Moreover, the graph construction algorithm is faster than the other two methods with huge datasets. The Affinity Network is also applied to data produced by a synchronised system. A detailed analysis and numerical investigation into this dynamical system is provided and it is shown that the Affinity Network can be used to characterise its emergent behaviour even in the presence of noise.

How well do the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behaviour predict intentions and attendance at screening programmes? A meta-analysis

Meta-analysis was used to quantify how well the Theories of Reasoned Action and Planned Behaviour have predicted intentions to attend screening programmes and actual attendance behaviour. Systematic literature searches identified 33 studies that were included in the review. Across the studies as a whole, attitudes had a large-sized relationship with intention, while subjective norms and perceived behavioural control (PBC) possessed medium-sized relationships with intention. Intention had a medium-sized relationship with attendance, whereas the PBC-attendance relationship was small sized. Due to heterogeneity in results between studies, moderator analyses were conducted. The moderator variables were (a) type of screening test, (b) location of recruitment, (c) screening cost and (d) invitation to screen. All moderators affected theory of planned behaviour relationships. Suggestions for future research emerging from these results include targeting attitudes to promote intention to screen, a greater use of implementation intentions in screening information and examining the credibility of different screening providers.

Drawing association rules between purchases and in-store behaviour:an extension of the market basket analysis

Shopping behavior is often exclusively studied through consumer purchases, since they are an easily measurable ouput. Still, the observation of in-store physical behavior (path, moves and actions) is crucial, as is the quantification of its impact on purchases. Using an innovative PDA tool to precisely record and time stamp consumers' moves and actions, we extend the classical Market Basket Analysis (MBA) by integrating this new information: associations between product categories are measured not only from purchases but also from consumer physical behavior. We compare results of our new method with classical MBA results and show a significant improvement.

Evaluation of hemifield sector analysis protocol in multifocal visual evoked potential (MFVEP) objective perimetry for the diagnosis and early detection of glaucomatous field defects

Visual field assessment is a core component of glaucoma diagnosis and monitoring, and the Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP) test is considered up until this moment, the gold standard of visual field assessment. Although SAP is a subjective assessment and has many pitfalls, it is being constantly used in the diagnosis of visual field loss in glaucoma. Multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP) is a newly introduced method used for visual field assessment objectively. Several analysis protocols have been tested to identify early visual field losses in glaucoma patients using the mfVEP technique, some were successful in detection of field defects, which were comparable to the standard SAP visual field assessment, and others were not very informative and needed more adjustment and research work. In this study, we implemented a novel analysis approach and evaluated its validity and whether it could be used effectively for early detection of visual field defects in glaucoma. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of a new analysis method in the Multi-Focal Visual Evoked Potential (mfVEP) when it is used for the objective assessment of the visual field in glaucoma patients, compared to the gold standard technique. METHODS: 3 groups were tested in this study; normal controls (38 eyes), glaucoma patients (36 eyes) and glaucoma suspect patients (38 eyes). All subjects had a two standard Humphrey visual field HFA test 24-2 and a single mfVEP test undertaken in one session. Analysis of the mfVEP results was done using the new analysis protocol; the Hemifield Sector Analysis HSA protocol. Analysis of the HFA was done using the standard grading system. RESULTS: Analysis of mfVEP results showed that there was a statistically significant difference between the 3 groups in the mean signal to noise ratio SNR (ANOVA p<0.001 with a 95% CI). The difference between superior and inferior hemispheres in all subjects were all statistically significant in the glaucoma patient group 11/11 sectors (t-test p<0.001), partially significant 5/11 (t-test p<0.01) and no statistical difference between most sectors in normal group (only 1/11 was significant) (t-test p<0.9). sensitivity and specificity of the HAS protocol in detecting glaucoma was 97% and 86% respectively, while for glaucoma suspect were 89% and 79%. DISCUSSION: The results showed that the new analysis protocol was able to confirm already existing field defects detected by standard HFA, was able to differentiate between the 3 study groups with a clear distinction between normal and patients with suspected glaucoma; however the distinction between normal and glaucoma patients was especially clear and significant. CONCLUSION: The new HSA protocol used in the mfVEP testing can be used to detect glaucomatous visual field defects in both glaucoma and glaucoma suspect patient. Using this protocol can provide information about focal visual field differences across the horizontal midline, which can be utilized to differentiate between glaucoma and normal subjects. Sensitivity and specificity of the mfVEP test showed very promising results and correlated with other anatomical changes in glaucoma field loss.

The role of hemifield sector analysis in multifocal visual evoked potential objective perimetry in the early detection of glaucomatous visual field defects

Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of a new analysis method of mfVEP objective perimetry in the early detection of glaucomatous visual field defects compared to the gold standard technique. Methods and patients: Three groups were tested in this study; normal controls (38 eyes), glaucoma patients (36 eyes), and glaucoma suspect patients (38 eyes). All subjects underwent two standard 24-2 visual field tests: one with the Humphrey Field Analyzer and a single mfVEP test in one session. Analysis of the mfVEP results was carried out using the new analysis protocol: the hemifield sector analysis protocol. Results: Analysis of the mfVEP showed that the signal to noise ratio (SNR) difference between superior and inferior hemifields was statistically significant between the three groups (analysis of variance, P<0.001 with a 95% confidence interval, 2.82, 2.89 for normal group; 2.25, 2.29 for glaucoma suspect group; 1.67, 1.73 for glaucoma group). The difference between superior and inferior hemifield sectors and hemi-rings was statistically significant in 11/11 pair of sectors and hemi-rings in the glaucoma patients group (t-test P<0.001), statistically significant in 5/11 pairs of sectors and hemi-rings in the glaucoma suspect group (t-test P<0.01), and only 1/11 pair was statistically significant (t-test P<0.9). The sensitivity and specificity of the hemifield sector analysis protocol in detecting glaucoma was 97% and 86% respectively and 89% and 79% in glaucoma suspects. These results showed that the new analysis protocol was able to confirm existing visual field defects detected by standard perimetry, was able to differentiate between the three study groups with a clear distinction between normal patients and those with suspected glaucoma, and was able to detect early visual field changes not detected by standard perimetry. In addition, the distinction between normal and glaucoma patients was especially clear and significant using this analysis. Conclusion: The new hemifield sector analysis protocol used in mfVEP testing can be used to detect glaucomatous visual field defects in both glaucoma and glaucoma suspect patients. Using this protocol, it can provide information about focal visual field differences across the horizontal midline, which can be utilized to differentiate between glaucoma and normal subjects. The sensitivity and specificity of the mfVEP test showed very promising results and correlated with other anatomical changes in glaucomatous visual field loss. The intersector analysis protocol can detect early field changes not detected by the standard Humphrey Field Analyzer test. © 2013 Mousa et al, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd.

Performing in a night-time leisure venue: a visual analysis of erotic dance

This article analyses a range of different meanings attached to images of erotic dance, with a particular focus on the 'impression management' (Goffman 1959) enacted by dancers. It presents a visual analysis of the work of a female erotic performer in a lesbian erotic dance venue in the UK. Still photographs, along with observational data and interviews, convey the complexity and skill of an erotic dancer's diverse gendered and sexualised performances. The visual data highlights the extensive 'aesthetic labour' (Nickson et al. 2001) and 'emotional labour' (Hochschild 1983) the dancer must put in to constructing her work 'self'. However, a more ambitious use of the visual is identified: the dancer's own use of images of her work. This use of the visual by dancers themselves highlights a more complex 'impression management' strategy undertaken by a dancer and brings into question the separation of 'real' and 'work' 'selves' in erotic dance. © Sociological Research Online, 1996-2012.

Analysis of variables measured in the visual screening of University of Birmingham freshmen and a critical review of visual screening methods and approach

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Alpha helical trans-membrane proteins:enhanced prediction using a Bayesian approach

Membrane proteins, which constitute approximately 20% of most genomes, are poorly tractable targets for experimental structure determination, thus analysis by prediction and modelling makes an important contribution to their on-going study. Membrane proteins form two main classes: alpha helical and beta barrel trans-membrane proteins. By using a method based on Bayesian Networks, which provides a flexible and powerful framework for statistical inference, we addressed alpha-helical topology prediction. This method has accuracies of 77.4% for prokaryotic proteins and 61.4% for eukaryotic proteins. The method described here represents an important advance in the computational determination of membrane protein topology and offers a useful, and complementary, tool for the analysis of membrane proteins for a range of applications.