Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data

It is common to model the dynamics of fisheries using natural and fishing mortality rates estimated independently using two separate analyses. Fishing mortality is routinely estimated from widely available logbook data, whereas natural mortality estimations have often required more specific, less frequently available, data. However, in the case of the fishery for brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay, both fishing and natural mortality rates have been estimated from logbook data. The present work extended the fishing mortality model to incorporate an eco-physiological response of tiger prawn to temperature, and allowed recruitment timing to vary from year to year. These ecological characteristics of the dynamics of this fishery were ignored in the separate model that estimated natural mortality. Therefore, we propose to estimate both natural and fishing mortality rates within a single model using a consistent set of hypotheses. This approach was applied to Moreton Bay brown tiger prawn data collected between 1990 and 2010. Natural mortality was estimated by maximum likelihood to be equal to 0.032 ± 0.002 week−1, approximately 30% lower than the fixed value used in previous models of this fishery (0.045 week−1).

Estimation of higher natural frequencies of polar orthotropic annular plates

A method based on an assumption that the radial bending moment is zero at a nodal circle is shown to yield accurate estimates of natural frequencies corresponding to higher modes of transversely vibrating polar orthotropic annular plates for various combinations of clamped, simply supported and free edge conditions. This method is found to be convenient for the determination of locations of nodal circles as well. Numerical investigations revealed that for small holes, nodal circles tend to move towards the outer edge with increasing number of nodal diameters. For large holes, it has been shown that the plate behaves like a long rectangular strip.

On the orthogonality of suboptimum estimate in the combined estimation and control problem

By deriving the equations for an error analysis of modeling inaccuracies for the combined estimation and control problem, it is shown that the optimum estimation error is orthogonal to the actual suboptimum estimate.

Estimation of Execution Times of Process Control Algorithms on Microcomputers

An important question which has to be answered in evaluting the suitability of a microcomputer for a control application is the time it would take to execute the specified control algorithm. In this paper, we present a method of obtaining closed-form formulas to estimate this time. These formulas are applicable to control algorithms in which arithmetic operations and matrix manipulations dominate. The method does not require writing detailed programs for implementing the control algorithm. Using this method, the execution times of a variety of control algorithms on a range of 16-bit mini- and recently announced microcomputers are calculated. The formulas have been verified independently by an analysis program, which computes the execution time bounds of control algorithms coded in Pascal when they are run on a specified micro- or minicomputer.

On the orthogonality of suboptimum estimate in the combined estimation and control problem

By deriving the equations for an error analysis of modeling inaccuracies for the combined estimation and control problem, it is shown that the optimum estimation error is orthogonal to the actual suboptimum estimate.

Nonlinear Control Design for an Air-breathing Engine with State Estimation

A nonlinear control design approach is presented in this paper for a challenging application problem of ensuring robust performance of an air-breathing engine operating at supersonic speed. The primary objective of control design is to ensure that the engine produces the required thrust that tracks the commanded thrust as closely as possible by appropriate regulation of the fuel flow rate. However, since the engine operates in the supersonic range, an important secondary objective is to ensure an optimal location of the shock in the intake for maximum pressure recovery with a sufficient margin. This is manipulated by varying the throat area of the nozzle. The nonlinear dynamic inversion technique has been successfully used to achieve both of the above objectives. In this problem, since the process is faster than the actuators, independent control designs have also been carried out for the actuators as well to assure the satisfactory performance of the system. Moreover, an extended Kalman Filter based state estimation design has been carried out both to filter out the process and sensor noises as well as to make the control design operate based on output feedback. Promising simulation results indicate that the proposed control design approach is quite successful in obtaining robust performance of the air-breathing system.

Modeling ecological and evolutionary processes in spatially structured populations

Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.

New colorimetric method for the estimation of resorcinol

A new, rapid, simple, and sensitive colorimetric method for the estimation of resorcinol in microgram amounts is described.

Estimation of higher natural frequencies of polar orthotropic annular plates

A method based on an assumption that the radial bending moment is zero at a nodal circle is shown to yield accurate estimates of natural frequencies corresponding to higher modes of transversely vibrating polar orthotropic annular plates for various combinations of clamped, simply supported and free edge conditions. This method is found to be convenient for the determination of locations of nodal circles as well. Numerical investigations revealed that for small holes, nodal circles tend to move towards the outer edge with increasing number of nodal diameters. For large holes, it has been shown that the plate behaves like a long rectangular strip.

Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the global burden of disease 2013

Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and the evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce new global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990-2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were then applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990 – 2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world’s population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries, in contrast to increases estimated in South Asia, throughout much of Southeast Asia, and in China. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased in most countries from 1990 - 2013, with modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.

Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

A robust initialization scheme for faster convergence of the dichotomous search algorithm for single frequency estimation

The estimation of the frequency of a sinusoidal signal is a well researched problem. In this work we propose an initialization scheme to the popular dichotomous search of the periodogram peak algorithm(DSPA) that is used to estimate the frequency of a sinusoid in white gaussian noise. Our initialization is computationally low cost and gives the same performance as the DSPA, while reducing the number of iterations needed for the fine search stage. We show that our algorithm remains stable as we reduce the number of iterations in the fine search stage. We also compare the performance of our modification to a previous modification of the DSPA and show that we enhance the performance of the algorithm with our initialization technique.

Time-driven life cycle cost estimation system for product family design

This research develops a design support system, which is able to estimate the life cycle cost of different product families at the early stage of product development. By implementing the system, a designer is able to develop various cost effective product families in a shorter lead-time and minimise the destructive impact of the product family on the environment.