923 resultados para Bayes-Laplace binomial intervals


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Data on seasonal population abundance of Bemisia tabaci biotype B (silverleaf whitefly (SLW)) in Australian cotton fields collected over four consecutive growing seasons (2002/2003-2005/2006) were used to develop and validate a multiple-threshold-based management and sampling plan. Non-linear growth trajectories estimated from the field sampling data were used as benchmarks to classify adult SLW field populations into six density-based management zones with associated control recommendations in the context of peak flowering and open boll crop growth stages. Control options based on application of insect growth regulators (IGRs) are recommended for high-density populations (>2 adults/leaf) whereas conventional (non-IGR) products are recommended for the control of low to moderate population densities. A computerised re-sampling program was used to develop and test a binomial sampling plan. Binomial models with thresholds of T=1, 2 and 3 adults/leaf were tested using the field abundance data. A binomial plan based on a tally threshold of T=2 adults/leaf and a minimum sample of 20 leaves at nodes 3, 4 or 5 below the terminal is recommended as the most parsimonious and practical sampling protocol for Australian cotton fields. A decision support guide with management zone boundaries expressed as binomial counts and control options appropriate for various SLW density situations is presented. Appropriate use of chemical insecticides and tactics for successful field control of whiteflies are discussed.

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Two field experiments using maize (Pioneer 31H50) and three watering regimes [(i) irrigated for the whole crop cycle, until anthesis, (ii) not at all (experiment 1) and (iii) fully irrigated and rain grown for the whole crop cycle (experiment 2)] were conducted at Gatton, Australia, during the 2003-04 season. Data on crop ontogeny, leaf, sheath and internode lengths and leaf width, and senescence were collected at 1- to 3-day intervals. A glasshouse experiment during 2003 quantified the responses of leaf shape and leaf presentation to various levels of water stress. Data from experiment 1 were used to modify and parameterise an architectural model of maize (ADEL-Maize) to incorporate the impact of water stress on maize canopy characteristics. The modified model produced accurate fitted values for experiment 1 for final leaf area and plant height, but values during development for leaf area were lower than observed data. Crop duration was reasonably well fitted and differences between the fully irrigated and rain-grown crops were accurately predicted. Final representations of maize crop canopies were realistic. Possible explanations for low values of leaf area are provided. The model requires further development using data from the glasshouse study and before being validated using data from experiment 2 and other independent data. It will then be used to extend functionality in architectural models of maize. With further research and development, the model should be particularly useful in examining the response of maize production to water stress including improved prediction of total biomass and grain yield. This will facilitate improved simulation of plant growth and development processes allowing investigation of genotype by environment interactions under conditions of suboptimal water supply.

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Fractal Dimensions (FD) are popular metrics for characterizing signals. They are used as complexity measuresin signal analysis applications in various fields. However, proper interpretation of such analyses has not been thoroughly addressed. In this paper, we study the effect of various signal properties on FD and interpret results in terms of classical signal processing concepts such as amplitude, frequency,number of harmonics, noise power and signal bandwidth. We have used Higuchi’s method for estimating FDs. This study helps in gaining a better understanding of the FD complexity measure for various signal parameters. Our results indicate that FD is a useful metric in estimating various signal properties. As an application of the FD measure in real world scenario, the FD is used as a feature in discriminating seizures from seizure free intervals in intracranial EEG data recordings and the FD feature has given good discrimination performance.

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The discovery of magnetic superconductors has posed the problem of the coexistence of two kinds of orders (magnetic and superconducting) in some temperature intervals in these systems. New microscopic mechanisms developed by us to explain the coexistence and reentrant behaviour are reported. The mechanism for antiferromagnetic superconductors which shows enhancement of superconductivity below the magnetic transition is found relevant for rare-earth systems having less than half-filled f-atomic shells. The theory will be compared with the experimental results of SmRh4B4 system. A phenomenological treatment based on a generalized Ginzburg-Landau approach will also be presented to explain the anomalous behaviour of the second critical field in some antiferromagnetic superconductors. These magnetic superconductors provide two kinds of Bose fields, namely, phonons and magnons which interact with each other and also with the conduction electrons. Theoretical studies of the effects of the excitations of these modes on superconducting pairing and magnetic ordering in these systems will be discussed.

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The effect of defoliation on Amarillo (Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo) was studied in a glasshouse and in mixed swards with 2 tropical grasses. In the glasshouse, Amarillo plants grown in pots were subjected to a 30/20°C or 25/15°C temperature regime and to defoliation at 10-, 20- or 30-day intervals for 60 days. Two field plot studies were conducted on Amarillo with either irrigated kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) in autumn and spring or dryland Pioneer rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) over summer and autumn. Treatments imposed were 3 defoliation intervals (7, 14 and 28 days) and 2 residual heights (5 and 10 cm for kikuyu; 3 and 10 cm for rhodes grass) with extra treatments (56 days to 3 cm for both grasses and 21 days to 5 cm for kikuyu). Defoliation interval had no significant effect on accumulated Amarillo leaf dry matter (DM) at either temperature regime. At the higher temperature, frequent defoliation reduced root dry weight (DW) and increased crude protein (CP) but had no effect on stolon DW or in vitro organic matter digestibility (OMD). On the other hand, at the lower temperature, frequent defoliation reduced stolon DW and increased OMD but had no effect on root DW or CP. Irrespective of temperaure and defoliation, water-soluble carbohydrate levels were higher in stolons than in roots (4.70 vs 3.65%), whereas for starch the reverse occured (5.37 vs 9.44%). Defoliating the Amarillo-kikuyu sward once at 56 days to 3 cm produced the highest DM yield in autumn and sprong (582 and 7121 kg/ha DM, respectively), although the Amarillo component and OMD were substantially reduced. Highest DM yields (1726 kg/ha) were also achieved in the Amarillo-rhodes grass sward when defoliated every 56 days to 3 cm, although the Amarillo component was unaffected. In a mixed sward with either kikuyu or rhodes grass, the Amarillo component in the sward was maintained up to a 28-day defoliation interval and was higher when more severely defoliated. The results show that Amarillo can tolerate frequent defoliation and that it can co-exist with tropical grasses of differing growth habits, provided the Amarillo-tropical grass sward is subject to frequent and severe defoliation.

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Crown, stolon, and petiole rots caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides (C.g.) were first identified in runner beds of the Queensland Approved Runner Scheme (QARS) in February 1989. The outbreaks occurred annually from 1990 to 1994. Minor losses in subsequent fruit crops occurred from 1990 to 1993, with 50% post-establishment losses occurring on fruit farms in southeast Queensland in 1994. The objective of this work was to provide a control strategy for the disease that would give stability to the QARS. Runner-bed trials in 1993-1994 showed that Octave® (462 g/kg prochloraz as the MnCl2 complex) was highly effective in reducing the incidence field symptoms and laboratory recovery of C.g. from symptomless petioles. A simple detached petiole laboratory test for measuring fungicide efficacy in runner bed trials and for laboratory screening of fungicides, is described. Scheme protocols were changed to require that only foundation plants from tissue culture were allowed onto QARS sites. These were to be symptomless and to have tested negative for the presence of C.g. The application of Octave® at fortnightly intervals in all QARS nurseries has reduced the level of visible symptoms and the laboratory recovery of C.g. from symptomless petioles to almost zero.

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Being able to accurately predict the risk of falling is crucial in patients with Parkinson’s dis- ease (PD). This is due to the unfavorable effect of falls, which can lower the quality of life as well as directly impact on survival. Three methods considered for predicting falls are decision trees (DT), Bayesian networks (BN), and support vector machines (SVM). Data on a 1-year prospective study conducted at IHBI, Australia, for 51 people with PD are used. Data processing are conducted using rpart and e1071 packages in R for DT and SVM, con- secutively; and Bayes Server 5.5 for the BN. The results show that BN and SVM produce consistently higher accuracy over the 12 months evaluation time points (average sensitivity and specificity > 92%) than DT (average sensitivity 88%, average specificity 72%). DT is prone to imbalanced data so needs to adjust for the misclassification cost. However, DT provides a straightforward, interpretable result and thus is appealing for helping to identify important items related to falls and to generate fallers’ profiles.

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[Excerpt] This second issue in the current four-volume series of Social Security Programs Throughout the World reports on the countries of Asia and the Pacific. The combined findings of this series, which also includes volumes on Europe, Africa, and the Americas, are published at 6-month intervals over a 2-year period. Each volume highlights features of social security programs in the particular region. This guide serves as an overview of programs in all regions. A few political jurisdictions have been excluded because they have no social security system or have issued no information regarding their social security legislation. In the absence of recent information, national programs reported in previous volumes may also be excluded. In this volume on Asia and the Pacific, the data reported are based on laws and regulations in force in July 2006 or on the last date for which information has been received.1 Information for each country on types of social security programs, types of mandatory systems for retirement income, contribution rates, and demographic and other statistics related to social security is shown in Tables 1­4 at the end of the guide. The country summaries show each system's major features. Separate programs in the public sector and specialized funds for such groups as agricultural workers, collective farmers, or the self-employed have not been described in any detail. Benefit arrangements of private employers or individuals are not described in any detail, even though such arrangements may be mandatory in some countries or available as alternatives to statutory programs. The country summaries also do not refer to international social security agreements that may be in force between two or more countries. Those agreements may modify coverage, contributions, and benefit provisions of national laws summarized in the country write-ups. Since the summary format requires brevity, technical terms have been developed that are concise as well as comparable and are applied to all programs. The terminology may therefore differ from national concepts or usage.

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The potential of spinosad as a grain protectant for the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica, was investigated in a silo-scale trial on wheat stored in Victoria, Australia. Rhyzopertha dominica is a serious pest of stored grain, and its resistance to protectants and the fumigant phosphine is becoming more common. This trial follows earlier laboratory research showing that spinosad may be a useful pest management option for this species. Wheat (300 t) from the 2005 harvest was treated with spinosad 0.96 mg/kg plus chlorpyrifos-methyl 10 mg/kg in March 2006, and samples were collected at intervals during 7.5 month storage to determine efficacy and residues in wheat and milling fractions. Chlorpyrifos-methyl is already registered in Australia for control of several other pest species, and its low potency against R. dominica was confirmed in laboratory-treated wheat. Grain moisture content was stable at about 10%, but grain temperature ranged from 29.3°C in March to 14.0°C in August. Bioassays of all treated wheat samples over 7.5 months resulted in 100% adult mortality after 2 weeks exposure and no live progeny were produced. In addition, no live grain insects were detected during outload sampling after a 9 month storage. Spinosad and chlorpyrifos-methyl residues tended to decline during storage, and residues were higher in the bran layer than in either wholemeal or white flour. This field trial confirmed that spinosad was effective as a grain protectant targeting R. dominica.

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Maintenance of green leaf area during grain filling can increase grain yield of sorghum grown under terminal water limitation. This 'stay-green' trait has been related to the nitrogen (N) supply-demand balance during grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of grain and N translocation rates from leaves and stem and explores effects of genotype and N stress on onset and rate of leaf senescence during the grain filling period. Three hybrids differing in potential height were grown at three levels of N supply under well-watered conditions. Vertical profiles of biomass, leaf area, and N% of leaves, stem and grain were measured at regular intervals. Weekly SPAD chlorophyll readings on main shoot leaves were correlated with observed specific leaf nitrogen (SLN) to derive seasonal patterns of leaf N content. For all hybrids, individual grain N demand was sink determined and was initially met through N translocation from the stem and rachis. Only if this was insufficient did leaf N translocation occur. Maximum N translocation rates from leaves and stem were dependent on their N status. However, the supply of N at canopy scale was also related to the amount of leaf area senescing at any one time. This supply-demand framework for N dynamics explained effects of N stress and genotype on the onset and rate of leaf senescence.

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Stay-green, an important trait for grain yield of sorghum grown under water limitation, has been associated with a high leaf nitrogen content at the start of grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of leaves and stems and explores effects of N stress on the N balance of vegetative plant parts of three sorghum hybrids differing in potential crop height. The hybrids were grown under well-watered conditions at three levels of N supply. Vertical profiles of biomass and N% of leaves and stems, together with leaf size and number, and specific leaf nitrogen (SLN), were measured at regular intervals. The hybrids had similar minimum but different critical and maximum SLN, associated with differences in leaf size and N partitioning, the latter associated with differences in plant height. N demand of expanding new leaves was represented by critical SLN, and structural stem N demand by minimum stem N%. The fraction of N partitioned to leaf blades increased under N stress. A framework for N dynamics of leaves and stems is developed that captures effects of N stress and genotype on N partitioning and on critical and maximum SLN.

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The variation in liveweight gain in grazing beef cattle as influenced by pasture type, season and year effects has important economic implications for mixed crop-livestock systems and the ability to better predict such variation would benefit beef producers by providing a guide for decision making. To identify key determinants of liveweight change of Brahman-cross steers grazing subtropical pastures, measurements of pasture quality and quantity, and diet quality in parallel with liveweight were made over two consecutive grazing seasons (48 and 46 weeks, respectively), on mixed Clitoria ternatea/grass, Stylosanthes seabrana/grass and grass swards (grass being a mixture of Bothriochloa insculpta cv. Bisset, Dichanthium sericeum and Panicum maximum var. trichoglume cv. Petrie). Steers grazing the legume-based pastures had the highest growth rate and gained between 64 and 142 kg more than those grazing the grass pastures in under 12 months. Using an exponential model, green leaf mass, green leaf %, adjusted green leaf % (adjusted for inedible woody legume stems), faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy predictions of diet crude protein and diet dry matter digestibility, accounted for 77, 74, 80, 63 and 60%, respectively, of the variation in daily weight gain when data were pooled across pasture types and grazing seasons. The standard error of the regressions indicated that 95% prediction intervals were large (+/- 0.42-0.64 kg/head.day) suggesting that derived regression relationships have limited practical application for accurately estimating growth rate. In this study, animal factors, especially compensatory growth effects, appeared to have a major influence on growth rate in relation to pasture and diet attributes. It was concluded that predictions of growth rate based only on pasture or diet attributes are unlikely to be accurate or reliable. Nevertheless, key pasture attributes such as green leaf mass and green leaf% provide a robust indication of what proportion of the potential growth rate of the grazing animals can be achieved.

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BACKGROUND: Wheat can be stored for many months before being fumigated with phosphine to kill insects, so a study was undertaken to investigate whether the sorptive capacity of wheat changes as it ages. Wheat was stored at 15 or 25C and 55% RH for up to 5.5 months, and samples were fumigated at intervals to determine sorption. Sealed glass flasks (95% full) were injected with 1.5 mg L-1 of phosphine based on flask volume. Concentrations were monitored for 11 days beginning 2 h after injection. Some wheat samples were refumigated after a period of ventilation. Several fumigations of wheat were conducted to determine the pattern of sorption during the first 24 h. RESULTS: Phosphine concentration declined exponentially with time from 2 h after injection. Rate of sorption decreased with time spent in storage at either 15 or 25C and 55% RH. Rate of sorption tended to be lower when wheat was refumigated, but this could be explained by time in storage rather than by refumigation per se. The data from the 24 h fumigations did not fit a simple exponential decay equation. Instead, there was a rapid decline in the first hour, with phosphine concentration falling much more slowly thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: The results have implications for phosphine fumigation of insects in stored wheat. Both the time wheat has spent in storage and the temperature at which it has been stored are factors that must be considered when trying to understand the impact of sorption on phosphine concentrations in commercial fumigations.

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The frequency range of the current source inverter (CSI) is limited by the slow commutation process in the inverter circuit. A method to reduce the commutation time and to limit the commutation capacitor voltage is proposed. A brief description of the conventional CSI and a detailed analysis of the commutation intervals of the proposed circuit are given. The experimental waveforms observed in the laboratory verify the validity of the analysis.

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Salinity is an increasingly important issue in both rural and urban areas throughout much of Australia. The use of recycled/reclaimed water and other sources of poorer quality water to irrigate turf is also increasing. Hybrid Bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers. x C. transvaalensis Burtt Davey), together with the parent species C. dactylon, are amongst the most widely used warm-season turf grass groups. Twelve hybrid Bermudagrass genotypes and one accession each of Bermudagrass (C. dactylon), African Bermudagrass (C. transvaalensis) and seashore paspalum (Paspalum vaginatum Sw.) were grown in a glasshouse experiment with six different salinity treatments applied hydroponically through the irrigation water (ECW = <0.1, 6, 12, 18, 24 or 30 dSm-1) in a flood-and-drain system. Each pot was clipped progressively at 2-weekly intervals over the 12-week experimental period to determine dry matter production; leaf firing was rated visually on 3 occasions during the last 6 weeks of salinity treatment. At the end of the experiment, dry weights of roots and crowns below clipping height were also determined. Clipping yields declined sharply after about the first 6 weeks of salinity treatment, but then remained stable at substantially lower levels of dry matter production from weeks 8 to 12. Growth data over this final 4-week experimental period is therefore a more accurate guide to the relative salinity tolerance of the 15 entries than data from the preceding 8 weeks. Based on these data, the 12 hybrid Bermudagrass genotypes showed moderate salinity tolerance, with FloraDwarfM, 'Champion Dwarf', NovotekM and 'TifEagle' ranking as the most salt tolerant and 'Patriot', 'Santa Ana', 'Tifgreen' and TifSport M the least tolerant within the hybrid group. Nevertheless, Santa Ana, for example, maintained relatively strong root growth as salinity increased, and so may show better salt tolerance in practice than predicted from the growth data alone. The 12 hybrid Bermudagrasses and the single African Bermudagrass genotype were all ranked above FloraTeXM Bermudagrass in terms of salt tolerance. However, seashore paspalum, which is widely acknowledged as a halophytic species showing high salt tolerance, ranked well above all 14 Cynodon genotypes in terms of salinity tolerance.