How stable are 20th century calibration models? A high-resolution summer temperature reconstruction for the eastern Swiss Alps back to A.D. 1580 derived from proglacial varved sediments

We found a significant positive correlation between local summer air temperature (May-September) and the annual sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) in Lake Silvaplana (46°N, 9°E, 1800 m a.s.l.) during the twentieth century (r = 0.69, p < 0.001 for decadal smoothed series). Sediment trap data (2001-2005) confirm this relation with exceptionally high particle yields during the hottest summer of the last 140 years in 2003. On this base we developed a decadal-scale summer temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580. Surprisingly, the comparison of our reconstruction with two other independent regional summer temperature reconstructions (based on tree-rings and documentary data) revealed a significant negative correlation for the pre-1900 data (ie, late ‘Little Ice Age’). This demonstrates that the correlation between MAR and summer temperature is not stable in time and the actualistic principle does not apply in this case. We suggest that different climatic regimes (modern/‘Little Ice Age’) lead to changing state conditions in the catchment and thus to considerably different sediment transport mechanisms. Therefore, we calibrated our MAR data with gridded early instrumental temperature series from AD 1760-1880 (r = -0.48, p < 0.01 for decadal smoothed series) to properly reconstruct the late LIA climatic conditions. We found exceptionally low temperatures between AD 1580 and 1610 (0.75°C below twentieth-century mean) and during the late Maunder Minimum from AD 1680 to 1710 (0.5°C below twentieth-century mean). In general, summer temperatures did not experience major negative departures from the twentieth-century mean during the late ‘Little Ice Age’. This compares well with the two existing independent regional reconstructions suggesting that the LIA in the Alps was mainly a phenomenon of the cold season.

[Chronic back ache--a psychosociobiological illness]

Chronic back pain is one of the eight most important symptoms of mankind in several lifetime prevalence studies. In the chronification process, an utmost important role is devoted to psychosocial influences, whereas structural abnormalities normally do not have a primal function in this process. The author also includes the discussion of the possibilities for the generalist to influence early the chronification process with the aim to keep the patient in his/her working environment.

Development of a screening tool predicting the transition from acute to chronic low back pain for patients in a GP setting: protocol of a multinational prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) is by far the most prevalent and costly musculoskeletal problem in our society today. Following the recommendations of the Multinational Musculoskeletal Inception Cohort Study (MMICS) Statement, our study aims to define outcome assessment tools for patients with acute LBP and the time point at which chronic LBP becomes manifest and to identify patient characteristics which increase the risk of chronicity. METHODS: Patients with acute LBP will be recruited from clinics of general practitioners (GPs) in New Zealand (NZ) and Switzerland (CH). They will be assessed by postal survey at baseline and at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months follow-up. Primary outcome will be disability as measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI); key secondary endpoints will be general health as measured by the acute SF-12 and pain as measured on the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). A subgroup analysis of different assessment instruments and baseline characteristics will be performed using multiple linear regression models. This study aims to examine: 1. Which biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational outcome assessment tools are identifiers for the transition from acute to chronic LBP and at which time point this transition becomes manifest. 2. Which psychosocial and occupational baseline characteristics like work status and period of work absenteeism influence the course from acute to chronic LBP. 3. Differences in outcome assessment tools and baseline characteristics of patients in NZ compared with CH. DISCUSSION: This study will develop a screening tool for patients with acute LBP to be used in GP clinics to access the risk of developing chronic LBP. In addition, biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational patient characteristics which influence the course from acute to chronic LBP will be identified. Furthermore, an appropriate time point for follow-ups will be given to detect this transition. The generalizability of our findings will be enhanced by the international perspective of this study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: [Clinical Trial Registration Number, ACTRN12608000520336].

Differences across health care systems in outcome and cost-utility of surgical and conservative treatment of chronic low back pain: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on differences across health care systems in choice and outcome of the treatment of chronic low back pain (CLBP) with spinal surgery and conservative treatment as the main options. At least six randomised controlled trials comparing these two options have been performed; they show conflicting results without clear-cut evidence for superior effectiveness of any of the evaluated interventions and could not address whether treatment effect varied across patient subgroups. Cost-utility analyses display inconsistent results when comparing surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP. Due to its higher feasibility, we chose to conduct a prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: This study aims to examine if1. Differences across health care systems result in different treatment outcomes of surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP2. Patient characteristics (work-related, psychological factors, etc.) and co-interventions (physiotherapy, cognitive behavioural therapy, return-to-work programs, etc.) modify the outcome of treatment for CLBP3. Cost-utility in terms of quality-adjusted life years differs between surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP.This study will recruit 1000 patients from orthopaedic spine units, rehabilitation centres, and pain clinics in Switzerland and New Zealand. Effectiveness will be measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at baseline and after six months. The change in ODI will be the primary endpoint of this study.Multiple linear regression models will be used, with the change in ODI from baseline to six months as the dependent variable and the type of health care system, type of treatment, patient characteristics, and co-interventions as independent variables. Interactions will be incorporated between type of treatment and different co-interventions and patient characteristics. Cost-utility will be measured with an index based on EQol-5D in combination with cost data. CONCLUSION: This study will provide evidence if differences across health care systems in the outcome of treatment of CLBP exist. It will classify patients with CLBP into different clinical subgroups and help to identify specific target groups who might benefit from specific surgical or conservative interventions. Furthermore, cost-utility differences will be identified for different groups of patients with CLBP. Main results of this study should be replicated in future studies on CLBP.

A randomised controlled trial of spinal manipulative therapy in acute low back pain

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether treatment with spinal manipulative therapy (SMT) administered in addition to standard care is associated with clinically relevant early reductions in pain and analgesic consumption. METHODS: 104 patients with acute low back pain were randomly assigned to SMT in addition to standard care (n = 52) or standard care alone (n = 52). Standard care consisted of general advice and paracetamol, diclofenac or dihydrocodeine as required. Other analgesic drugs or non-pharmacological treatments were not allowed. Primary outcomes were pain intensity assessed on the 11-point box scale (BS-11) and analgesic use based on diclofenac equivalence doses during days 1-14. An extended follow-up was performed at 6 months. RESULTS: Pain reductions were similar in experimental and control groups, with the lower limit of the 95% CI excluding a relevant benefit of SMT (difference 0.5 on the BS-11, 95% CI -0.2 to 1.2, p = 0.13). Analgesic consumptions were also similar (difference -18 mg diclofenac equivalents, 95% CI -43 mg to 7 mg, p = 0.17), with small initial differences diminishing over time. There were no differences between groups in any of the secondary outcomes and stratified analyses provided no evidence for potential benefits of SMT in specific patient groups. The extended follow-up showed similar patterns. CONCLUSIONS: SMT is unlikely to result in relevant early pain reduction in patients with acute low back pain.

Time-domain modeling of high-frequency electromagnetic wave propagation, overhead wires, and earth

Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished. Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished.

Multi-software modeling technique for field distribution propagation through an optical vertical interconnect assembly

Embedded siloxane polymer waveguides have shown promising results for use in optical backplanes. They exhibit high temperature stability, low optical absorption, and require common processing techniques. A challenging aspect of this technology is out-of-plane coupling of the waveguides. A multi-software approach to modeling an optical vertical interconnect (via) is proposed. This approach utilizes the beam propagation method to generate varied modal field distribution structures which are then propagated through a via model using the angular spectrum propagation technique. Simulation results show average losses between 2.5 and 4.5 dB for different initial input conditions. Certain configurations show losses of less than 3 dB and it is shown that in an input/output pair of vias, average losses per via may be lower than the targeted 3 dB.

Optimal beam forming for laser beam propagation through random media

Focusing optical beams on a target through random propagation media is very important in many applications such as free space optical communica- tions and laser weapons. Random media effects such as beam spread and scintillation can degrade the optical system's performance severely. Compensation schemes are needed in these applications to overcome these random media effcts. In this research, we investigated the optimal beams for two different optimization criteria: one is to maximize the concentrated received intensity and the other is to minimize the scintillation index at the target plane. In the study of the optimal beam to maximize the weighted integrated intensity, we derive a similarity relationship between pupil-plane phase screen and extended Huygens-Fresnel model, and demonstrate the limited utility of maximizing the average integrated intensity. In the study ofthe optimal beam to minimize the scintillation index, we derive the first- and second-order moments for the integrated intensity of multiple coherent modes. Hermite-Gaussian and Laguerre-Gaussian modes are used as the coherent modes to synthesize an optimal partially coherent beam. The optimal beams demonstrate evident reduction of scintillation index, and prove to be insensitive to the aperture averaging effect.

Through the back door : Melungeon literacies and 21st century technologies

The Melungeons, a minority recognized in Southern Appalachia where they settled in the early 1800s, have mixed heritage—European, Mediterranean, Native American, and Sub-Saharan African. Their dark skin and distinctive features have marked them and been the cause of racial persecution both by custom and by law in Appalachia for two centuries. Their marginalization has led to an insider mentality, which I call a “literacy” of Melungeon-ness that affects every facet of their lives. Just a century ago, while specialized practices such as farming, preserving food, hunting, gathering, and distilling insured survival in the unforgiving mountain environment, few Melungeons could read or write. Required to pay property taxes and render military service, they were denied education, suffrage, and other legal rights. In the late 1890s visionary Melungeon leader Batey Collins invited Presbyterian homemissionaries to settle in one Tennessee Melungeon community where they established a church and built a school of unparalleled excellence. Educator-ministers Mary Rankin and Chester Leonard creatively reified the theories of Dewey, Montessori, and Rauschenbusch, but, despite their efforts, school literacy did not neutralize difference. Now, taking reading and writing for granted, Melungeons are exploring their identity by creating websites and participating in listserv discussions. These online expressions, which provide texts for rhetorical, semiotic, and socio-linguistic analysis, illustrate not solidarity but fragmentation on issues of origins and legitimacy. Armed with literacies of difference stemming from both nature and nurture, Melungeons are using literacy practices to embrace the difference they cannot escape.