Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Modelling bus lost time : an additional parameter influencing bus dwell time and station platform capacity at a BRT station platform

The common approach to estimate bus dwell time at a BRT station is to apply the traditional dwell time methodology derived for suburban bus stops. In spite of being sensitive to boarding and alighting passenger numbers and to some extent towards fare collection media, these traditional dwell time models do not account for the platform crowding. Moreover, they fall short in accounting for the effects of passenger/s walking along a relatively longer BRT platform. Using the experience from Brisbane busway (BRT) stations, a new variable, Bus Lost Time (LT), is introduced in traditional dwell time model. The bus lost time variable captures the impact of passenger walking and platform crowding on bus dwell time. These are two characteristics which differentiate a BRT station from a bus stop. This paper reports the development of a methodology to estimate bus lost time experienced by buses at a BRT platform. Results were compared with the Transit Capacity and Quality of Servce Manual (TCQSM) approach of dwell time and station capacity estimation. When the bus lost time was used in dwell time calculations it was found that the BRT station platform capacity reduced by 10.1%.

The influence of platform walking on BRT station bus dwell time estimation

The common approach to estimate bus dwell time at a BRT station platform is to apply the traditional dwell time methodology derived for suburban bus stops. Current dwell time models are sensitive towards bus type, fare collection policy along with the number of boarding and alighting passengers. However, they fall short in accounting for the effects of passenger/s walking on a relatively longer BRT station platform. Analysis presented in this paper shows that the average walking time of a passenger at BRT platform is 10 times more than that of bus stop. The requirement of walking to the bus entry door at the BRT station platform may lead to the bus experiencing a higher dwell time. This paper presents a theory for a BRT network which explains the loss of station capacity during peak period operation. It also highlights shortcomings of present available bus dwell time models suggested for the analysis of BRT operation.

Evidence of multiwall carbon nanotube deformation caused by poly(3-hexylthiophene) adhesion

We show that when a soft polymer like Poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) wraps multiwall nanotubes by coiling around the main axis, a localized deformation of the nanotube structure is observed. High resolution transmission electron microscopy shows that radial compressions of about 4% can take place, and could possibly lead to larger interlayer distance between the nanotube inner walls and reduce the innermost nanotube radius. The mechanical stress due to the polymer presence was confirmed by Raman spectroscopic observation of a gradual upshift of the carbon nanotube G-band when the polymer content in the composites was progressively increased. Vibrational spectroscopy also indicates that charge transfer from the polymer to the nanotubes is responsible for a peak frequency relative downshift for high P3HT-content samples. Continuously acquired transmission electron microscopy images at rising temperature show the MWCNT elastic compression and relaxation due to polymer rearrangement on the nanotube surface.

Electron diffusion and back reaction in dye-sensitized solar cells : the effect of nonlinear recombination kinetics

The electron collection efficiency in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) is usually related to the electron diffusion length, L = (Dτ)^1/2, where D is the diffusion coefficient of mobile electrons and τ is their lifetime, which is determined by electron transfer to the redox electrolyte. Analysis of incident photon-to-current efficiency (IPCE) spectra for front and rear illumination consistently gives smaller values of L than those derived from small amplitude methods. We show that the IPCE analysis is incorrect if recombination is not first-order in free electron concentration, and we demonstrate that the intensity dependence of the apparent L derived by first-order analysis of IPCE measurements and the voltage dependence of L derived from perturbation experiments can be fitted using the same reaction order, γ ≈ 0.8. The new analysis presented in this letter resolves the controversy over why L values derived from small amplitude methods are larger than those obtained from IPCE data.

Mesenchymal stem cells

Cell based therapies as they apply to tissue engineering and regenerative medicine, require cells capable of self renewal and differentiation, and a prerequisite is to be able to prepare an effective dose of ex vivo expanded cells for autologous transplants. The in vivo identification of a source of physiologically relevant cell types suitable for cell therapies therefore figures as an integral part of tissue engineering. Stem cells serve as a reserve for biological repair, having the potential to differentiate into a number of specialised cell types within the body; they therefore represent the most useful candidates for cell based therapies. The primary goal of stem cell research is to produce cells that are both patient specific, as well as having properties suitable for the specific conditions for which they are intended to remedy. From a purely scientific perspective, stem cells allow scientists to gain a deeper understanding of developmental biology and regenerative therapies. Stem cells have acquired a number of uses for applications in regenerative medicine, immunotherapy, gene therapy, but it is in the area of tissue engineering that they generate most excitement, primarily as a result of their capacity for self-renewal and pluripotency. A unique feature of stem cells is their ability to maintain an uncommitted quiescent state in vivo and then, once triggered by conditions such as disease, injury or natural wear or tear, serve as a reservoir and natural support system to replenish lost cells. Although these cells retain the plasticity to differentiate into various tissues, being able to control this differentiation process is still one of the biggest challenges facing stem cell research. In an effort to harness the potential of these cells a number of studies have been conducted using both embryonic/foetal and adult stem cells. The use of embryonic stem cells (ESC) have been hampered by strong ethical and political concerns, this despite their perceived versatility due to their pluripotency. Ethical issues aside, other concerns raised with ESCs relates to the possibility of tumorigenesis, immune rejection and complications with immunosuppressive therapies, all of which adds layers of complications to the application ESC in research and which has led to the search for alternative sources for stem cells. The adult tissues in higher organisms harbours cells, termed adult stem cells, and these cells are reminiscent of unprogrammed stem cells. A number of sources of adult stem cells have been described. Bone marrow is by far the most accessible source of two potent populations of adult stem cells, namely haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). Autologously harvested adult stem cells can, in contrast to embryonic stem cells, readily be used in autografts, since immune rejection is not an issue; and their use in scientific research has not attracted the ethical concerns which have been the case with embryonic stem cells. The major limitation to their use, however, is the fact that adult stem cells are exceedingly rare in most tissues. This fact makes identifying and isolating these cells problematic; bone marrow being perhaps the only notable exception. Unlike the case of HSCs, there are as yet no rigorous criteria for characterizing MSCs. Changing acuity about the pluripotency of MSCs in recent studies has expanded their potential application; however, the underlying molecular pathways which impart the features distinctive to MSCs remain elusive. Furthermore, the sparse in vivo distribution of these cells imposes a clear limitation to their study in vitro. Also, when MSCs are cultured in vitro, there is a loss of the in vivo microenvironment, resulting in a progressive decline in proliferation potential and multipotentiality. This is further exacerbated with increased passage numbers in culture, characterized by the onset of senescence related changes. As a consequence, it is necessary to establish protocols for generating large numbers of MSCs but without affecting their differentiation potential. MSCs are capable of differentiating into mesenchymal tissue lineages, including bone, cartilage, fat, tendon, muscle, and marrow stroma. Recent findings indicate that adult bone marrow may also contain cells that can differentiate into the mature, nonhematopoietic cells of a number of tissues, including cells of the liver, kidney, lung, skin, gastrointestinal tract, and myocytes of heart and skeletal muscle. MSCs can readily be expanded in vitro and can be genetically modified by viral vectors and be induced to differentiate into specific cell lineages by changing the microenvironment–properties which makes these cells ideal vehicles for cellular gene therapy. MSCs can also exert profound immunosuppressive effects via modulation of both cellular and innate immune pathways, and this property allows them to overcome the issue of immune rejection. Despite the many attractive features associated with MSCs, there are still many hurdles to overcome before these cells are readily available for use in clinical applications. The main concern relates to in vivo characterization and identification of MSCs. The lack of a universal biomarker, sparse in vivo distribution, and a steady age related decline in their numbers, makes it an obvious need to decipher the reprogramming pathways and critical molecular players which govern the characteristics unique to MSCs. This book presents a comprehensive insight into the biology of adult stem cells and their utility in current regeneration therapies. The adult stem cell populations reviewed in this book include bone marrow derived MSCs, adipose derived stem cells (ASCs), umbilical cord blood stem cells, and placental stem cells. The features such as MSC circulation and trafficking, neuroprotective properties, and the nurturing roles and differentiation potential of multiple lineages have been discussed in details. In terms of therapeutic applications, the strengths of MSCs have been presented and their roles in disease treatments such as osteoarthritis, Huntington’s disease, periodontal regeneration, and pancreatic islet transplantation have been discussed. An analysis comparing osteoblast differentiation of umbilical cord blood stem cells and MSCs has been reviewed, as has a comparison of human placental stem cells and ASCs, in terms of isolation, identification and therapeutic applications of ASC in bone, cartilage regeneration, as well as myocardial regeneration. It is my sincere hope that this book will update the reader as to the research progress of MSC biology and potential use of these cells in clinical applications. It will be the best reward to all contributors of this book, if their efforts herein may in some way help the readers in any part of their study, research, and career development.

Shear strength of LiteSteel beams with web openings

This paper presents the details of numerical studies on the shear strength of a recently devel-oped, cold-formed steel channel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB) with web openings. The LSB sections are commonly used as floor joists and bearers in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. In these ap-plications they often include web openings for the purpose of locating services. This has raised concerns over the shear capacity of LSB floor joists and bearers. Therefore experimental and numerical studies were under-taken to investigate the shear behavior and strength of LSBs with web openings. In this research, finite ele-ment models of LSBs with web openings in shear were developed to simulate the shear behavior of LSBs. It was found that currently available design equations are conservative or unconservative for the shear design of LSBs with web openings. Improved design equations have been proposed for the shear capacity of LSBs with web openings based on both experimental and numerical study results.

The legal role of medical professionals in decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment : Part 1 (New South Wales)

This is the first article in a series of three that examines the legal role of medical professionals in decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment from adults who lack capacity. This article considers the position in New South Wales. A review of the law in this State reveals that medical professionals play significant legal roles in these decisions. However, the law is problematic in a number of respects and this is likely to impede medical professionals’ legal knowledge in this area. The article examines the level of training medical professionals receive on issues such as advance directives and substitute decision-making, and the available empirical evidence as to the state of medical professionals’ knowledge of the law at the end of life. It concludes that there are gaps in legal knowledge and that law reform is needed in New South Wales.

The legal role of medical professionals in decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment : Part 2 (Queensland)

This is the second article in a series of three that examines the legal role of medical professionals in decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment from adults who lack capacity. This article considers the position in Queensland, including the parens patriae jurisdiction of the Supreme Court. A review of the law in this State reveals that medical professionals play significant legal roles in these decisions. However, the law is problematic in a number of respects and this is likely to impede medical professionals’ legal knowledge in this area. The article examines the level of training medical professionals receive on issues such as advance health directives and substitute decision-making, and the available empirical evidence as to the state of medical professionals’ knowledge of the law at the end of life. It concludes that there are gaps in legal knowledge and that law reform is needed in Queensland.

Optimization of container process at seaport terminals

Seaport container terminals are an important part of the logistics systems in international trades. This paper investigates the relationship between quay cranes, yard machines and container storage locations in a multi-berth and multi-ship environment. The aims are to develop a model for improving the operation efficiency of the seaports and to develop an analytical tool for yard operation planning. Due to the fact that the container transfer times are sequence-dependent and with the large number of variables involve, the proposed model cannot be solved in a reasonable time interval for realistically sized problems. For this reason, List Scheduling and Tabu Search algorithms have been developed to solve this formidable and NP-hard scheduling problem. Numerical implementations have been analysed and promising results have been achieved.

Report on capacity-building workshops for road safety in Indonesia

In addition to the established problem of road safety in developing countries such as Indonesia, the agencies responsible for road safety often lack personnel with professional training in road safety. In Indonesia this is compounded by a need for more effective collaboration between agencies. In 2009, CARRS-Q was commissioned under the Indonesia Transport Safety Assistance Package to provide professional training in road safety for middle level officers in Jakarta, the province of Jawa Barat, and the cities of Bandung, Bogor and Sukabumi, aimed at developing action plans and fostering collaboration between agencies. This was achieved through a workshop, which followed up by a second workshop with the same participants. The course was very well received, action plans were successfully prepared during the first workshop, and most had progressed well by the time of the second workshop. Good cooperation between agencies was also evident. There would be considerable benefits in extending modified workshops more widely in Indonesia.

Analysis of build-up of heavy metals and volatile organics on urban roads in Gold Coast, Australia

Urban water quality can be significantly impaired by the build-up of pollutants such as heavy metals and volatile organics on urban road surfaces due to vehicular traffic. Any control strategy for the mitigation of traffic related build-up of heavy metals and volatile organic pollutants should be based on the knowledge of their build-up processes. In the study discussed in this paper, the outcomes of a detailed experiment investigation into build-up processes of heavy metals and volatile organics are presented. It was found that traffic parameters such as average daily traffic, volume over capacity ratio and surface texture depth had similar strong correlations with the build-up of heavy metals and volatile organics. Multicriteria decision analyses revealed that the 1 - 74 um particulate fraction of total suspended solids (TSS) could be regarded as a surrogate indicator for particulate heavy metals in build-up and this same fraction of total organic carbon could be regarded as a surrogate indicator for particulate volatile organics build-up. In terms of pollutants affinity, TSS was found to be the predominant parameter for particulate heavy metals build-up and total dissolved solids was found to be the predominant parameter for he potential dissolved particulate fraction in heavy metals build-up. It was also found that land use did not play a significant role in the build-up of traffic generated heavy metals and volatile organics.

iRAP Malaysia training course : decade of action for road safety

The International Road Assessment Program (iRAP) is a not-for-profit organisation that works in partnership with governments and non-government organisations in all parts of the world to make roads safe. The iRAP Malaysia pilot study on 3700km of road identified the potential to prevent 31,800 deaths and serious injuries over the next 20 years from proven engineering improvements. To help ensure the iRAP data and results are available to planners and engineers, iRAP, together with staff from the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) and the Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research (MIROS), developed a five-day iRAP training course that covers the background, theory and practical application of iRAP protocols, with a special focus on Malaysian case studies. Funding was provided by a competitive grant from the Australia-Malaysia Institute.

The legal role of medical professionals in decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment : part 3 (Victoria)

This is the final article in a series of three that examines the legal role of medical professionals in decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment from adults who lack capacity. This article considers the position in Victoria. A review of the law in this State reveals that medical professionals play significant legal roles in these decisions. However, the law is problematic in a number of respects and this is likely to impede medical professionals’ legal knowledge in this area. The article examines the level of training that medical professionals receive on issues such as refusal of treatment certificates and substitute decision-making, and the available empirical evidence as to the state of medical professionals’ knowledge of the law at the end of life. It concludes that there are gaps in legal knowledge and that law reform is needed in Victoria. The article also draws together themes from the series as a whole, including conclusions about the need for more and better medical education and about law reform generally.

Integrated Acquisition Engineering Model for acquiring heavy engineering assets

In asset intensive industries such as mining, oil & gas, utilities etc. most of the capital expenditure happens on acquiring engineering assets. Process of acquiring assets is called as “Procurement” or “Acquisition”. An asset procurement decision should be taken in consideration with the installation, commissioning, operational, maintenance and disposal needs of an asset or spare. However, such cross-functional collaboration and communication does not appear to happen between engineering, maintenance, warehousing and procurement functions in many asset intensive industries. Acquisition planning and execution are two distinct parts of asset acquisition process. Acquisition planning or procurement planning is responsible for determining exactly what is required to be purchased. It is important that an asset acquisition decision is the result of cross-functional decision making process. An acquisition decision leads to a formal purchase order. Most costly asset decisions occur even before they are acquired. Therefore, acquisition decision should be an outcome of an integrated planning & decision making process. Asset intensive organizations both, Government and non Government in Australia spent AUD 102.5 Billion on asset acquisition in year 2008-09. There is widespread evidence of many assets and spare not being used or utilized and in the end are written off. This clearly shows that many organizations end up buying assets or spares which were not required or non-conforming to the needs of user functions. It is due the fact that strategic and software driven procurement process do not consider all the requirements from various functions within the organization which contribute to the operation and maintenance of the asset over its life cycle. There is a lot of research done on how to implement an effective procurement process. There are numerous software solutions available for executing a procurement process. However, not much research is done on how to arrive at a cross functional procurement planning process. It is also important to link procurement planning process to procurement execution process. This research will discuss ““Acquisition Engineering Model” (AEM) framework, which aims at assisting acquisition decision making based on various criteria to satisfy cross-functional organizational requirements. Acquisition Engineering Model (AEM) will consider inputs from corporate asset management strategy, production management, maintenance management, warehousing, finance and HSE. Therefore, it is essential that the multi-criteria driven acquisition planning process is carried out and its output is fed to the asset acquisition (procurement execution) process. An effective procurement decision making framework to perform acquisition planning which considers various functional criteria will be discussed in this paper.