Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate mode

An analysis of the climate of precipitation extremes as simulated by six European regional climate models (RCMs) is undertaken in order to describe/quantify future changes and to examine/interpret differences between models. Each model has adopted boundary conditions from the same ensemble of global climate model integrations for present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario. The main diagnostics are multiyear return values of daily precipitation totals estimated from extreme value analysis. An evaluation of the RCMs against observations in the Alpine region shows that model biases for extremes are comparable to or even smaller than those for wet day intensity and mean precipitation. In winter, precipitation extremes tend to increase north of about 45°N, while there is an insignificant change or a decrease to the south. In northern Europe the 20-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 40- to 100-year return value of present climate. There is a good agreement between the RCMs, and the simulated change is similar to a scaling of present-day extremes by the change in average events. In contrast, there are large model differences in summer when RCM formulation contributes significantly to scenario uncertainty. The model differences are well explained by differences in the precipitation frequency and intensity process, but in all models, extremes increase more or decrease less than would be expected from the scaling of present-day extremes. There is evidence for a component of the change that affects extremes specifically and is consistent between models despite the large variation in the total response.

A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate cahgne projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.

The significance of occupancy steadiness in residential consumer response to Time of Use pricing: Evidence from a stochastic adjustment model

The recent roll-out of smart metering technologies in several developed countries has intensified research on the impacts of Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing on consumption. This paper analyses a TOU dataset from the Province of Trento in Northern Italy using a stochastic adjustment model. Findings highlight the non-steadiness of the relationship between consumption and TOU price. Weather and active occupancy can partly explain future consumption in relation to price.

An industry viewpoint on the role of farm assurance in delivering food safety to the consumer: the case of the dairy sector in England and Wales

Food safety, alongside food quality, remains a primary concern of both consumers and those along the whole food supply chain, leading to regulation by government alongside private third party certification. Much has been written about the value of these systems primarily from the perception of the consumer. This paper reports on a study that examined industry perceptions on the regulatory and assurance systems within the dairy sector of England and Wales. It found that the primary producer found value in both systems, although from a food hygiene focus regulation was seen to be more rigorous. Other stakeholders along the dairy food supply chain saw the assurance scheme as more rigorous. All stakeholders recognised the need to reduce duplication in delivering food safety through combining key elements of both systems with the added potential for better communication of both food safety and quality to the final consumer.

The response of ionospheric convection in the polar cap to substorm activity

We report multi-instrument observations during an isolated substorm on 17 October 1989. The EISCAT radar operated in the SP-UK-POLI mode measuring ionospheric convection at latitudes 71°-78°. SAMNET and the EISCAT Magnetometer Cross provide information on the timing of substorm expansion phase onset and subsequent intensifications, as well as the location of the field aligned and ionospheric currents associated with the substorm current wedge. IMP-8 magnetic field data are also included. Evidence of a substorm growth phase is provided by the equatorward motion of a flow reversal boundary across the EISCAT radar field of view at 2130 MLT, following a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We infer that the polar cap expanded as a result of the addition of open magnetic flux to the tail lobes during this interval. The flow reversal boundary, which is a lower limit to the polar cap boundary, reached an invariant latitude equatorward of 71° by the time of the expansion phase onset. A westward electrojet, centred at 65.4°, occurred at the onset of the expansion phase. This electrojet subsequently moved poleward to a maximum of 68.1° at 2000 UT and also widened. During the expansion phase, there is evidence of bursts of plasma flow which are spatially localised at longitudes within the substorm current wedge and which occurred well poleward of the westward electrojet. We conclude that the substorm onset region in the ionosphere, defined by the westward electrojet, mapped to a part of the tail radially earthward of the boundary between open and closed magnetic flux, the “distant” neutral line. Thus the substorm was not initiated at the distant neutral line, although there is evidence that it remained active during the expansion phase. It is not obvious whether the electrojet mapped to a near-Earth neutral line, but at its most poleward, the expanded electrojet does not reach the estimated latitude of the polar cap boundary.

National boundaries and the location of multinational firms in Europe

Using data on 5,102 subsidiaries established in the period 1991–1999, we examine the location choice of multinational firms of different nationalities in 47 regions of five EU countries. In particular we estimate a nested logit model and find that European multinationals consider regions across different countries as relatively closer substitutes than regions within national borders. This is consistent with the hypothesis that European regions compete to attract foreign direct investments relatively more across than within countries. However, in line with previous studies, we also find that national boundaries still play some role in choices made by non-European multinationals.

Location choices of multinational firms in Europe: the role of EU cohesion policy

Using data on 5509 foreign subsidiaries established in 50 regions of 8 EU countries over the period 1991–1999, we estimate a mixed logit model of the location choice of multinational firms in Europe. In particular, we focus on the role of EU Cohesion Policy in attracting foreign investors from both within and outside Europe. We find that, after controlling for the role of agglomeration economies as well as a number of other regional and country characteristics and allowing for a very flexible correlation pattern among choices, Structural and Cohesion funds allocated by the EU to laggard regions have indeed contributed to attracting multinationals. These policies as well as other determinants play a different role in the case of European investors as opposed to non-European ones.

Arylbutyltellurides as precursors of dilithium arylthienylcyanocuprates in a straightforward approach to phenethylamine derivatives

The ring opening reaction of N-tosyl aziridines with dilithium arylthienylcyanocuprates generated from arylbutyltellurides produced phenethylamine derivatives in good to excellent yields. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimated lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden using time-to-event analysis

Maintenance planning of road pavement requires reliable estimates of roads’ lifetimes. In determining the lifetime of a road, this study combines maintenance activities and road condition measurements. The scope of the paper is to estimate lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden with time to event analysis. The model used includes effects of pavement type, road type, bearing capacity, road width, speed limit, stone size and climate zone, where the model is stratified according to traffic load. Among the nine analyzed pavement types, stone mastic had the longest expected lifetime, 32 percent longer than asphalt concrete. Among road types, ordinary roads with cable barriers had 30 percent shorter lifetime than ordinary roads. Increased speed lowered the lifetime, while increased stone size (up to 20 mm) and increased road width lengthened the lifetime. The results are of importance for life cycle cost analysis and road management.

Waveshapes of continuing currents and properties of M-components in natural positive cloud-to-ground lightning

This work analyses the waveshapes of continuing currents and parameters of M-components in positive cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes through high-speed GPS synchronized videos. The dataset is composed of only long continuing currents (with duration longer than 40 ms) and was selected from more than 800 flashes recorded in Sao Jose dos Campos (45.864 degrees W, 23.215 degrees S) and Uruguaiana (29.806 degrees W, 57.005 degrees S) in Southeast and South of Brazil, respectively, during 2003 to 2007 summers. The videos are compared with data obtained by the Brazilian Lightning Location System (BrasilDAT) in order to determine the polarity of each flash and select only positive cases. There are only two studies of waveshapes of continuing currents in the literature. One is based on direct current measurements of triggered lightning, in which four different types of waveshapes were observed; and the other is based on measurements of luminosity variations in high-speed videos of CG negative lightning, in which besides the four types above mentioned two additional types were observed. The present work is an extension of the latter, using the same method but now applied to obtain the waveshapes of positive CG lightning. As far as the authors know, this is the first report on M-components in positive continuing currents. We also have used the luminosity-versus-time graphs to observe their occurrence and measure some parameters (duration, elapsed time and time between two successive M-components), whose statistics are presented and compared in detail to the data for negative flashes. We have plotted a histogram of the M-components elapsed time over the total duration of the continuing current for positive flashes, which presented an exponential decay (correlation coefficient: 0.83), similar to what has been observed for negative flashes. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome in Japanese-Brazilians According to Specific Definitions for Ethnicity

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Chromosome banding in three species of Hypsiboas (Hylidae, Hylinae), with special reference to a new case of B-chromosome in anuran frogs and to the reduction of the diploid number of 2n=24 to 2n=22 in the genus

The chromosomes of hylids Hypsiboas albopunctatus, H. raniceps, and H. crepitans from Brazil were analyzed with standard and differential staining techniques. The former species presented 2n = 22 and 2n = 23 karyotypes, the odd diploid number is due to the presence of an extra element interpreted as B chromosome. Although morphologically very similar to the small-sized chromosomes of the A complement, the B was promptly recognized, even under standard staining, on the basis of some characteristics that are usually attributed to this particular class of chromosomes. The two other species have 2n = 24, which is the chromosome number usually found in the species of Hypsiboas karyotyped so far. This means that 2n = 22 is a deviant diploid number, resulted from a structural rearrangement, altering the chromosome number of 2n = 24 to 2n = 22. Based on new chromosome data, some possibilities were evaluated for the origin of B chromosome in Hypsiboas albopunctatus, as well as the karyotypic evolution in the genus, leading to the reduction in the diploid number of 2n = 24 to 2n = 22.