Some general comparative points on Chao's and Zelterman's estimators of the population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Active-control trials with binary data: a comparison of methods for testing superiority or non-inferiority using the odds ratio

This paper considers methods for testing for superiority or non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data, when the relative treatment effect is expressed as an odds ratio. Three asymptotic tests for the log-odds ratio based on the unconditional binary likelihood are presented, namely the likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests. All three tests can be implemented straightforwardly in standard statistical software packages, as can the corresponding confidence intervals. Simulations indicate that the three alternatives are similar in terms of the Type I error, with values close to the nominal level. However, when the non-inferiority margin becomes large, the score test slightly exceeds the nominal level. In general, the highest power is obtained from the score test, although all three tests are similar and the observed differences in power are not of practical importance. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporating historical data

This paper presents a simple Bayesian approach to sample size determination in clinical trials. It is required that the trial should be large enough to ensure that the data collected will provide convincing evidence either that an experimental treatment is better than a control or that it fails to improve upon control by some clinically relevant difference. The method resembles standard frequentist formulations of the problem, and indeed in certain circumstances involving 'non-informative' prior information it leads to identical answers. In particular, unlike many Bayesian approaches to sample size determination, use is made of an alternative hypothesis that an experimental treatment is better than a control treatment by some specified magnitude. The approach is introduced in the context of testing whether a single stream of binary observations are consistent with a given success rate p(0). Next the case of comparing two independent streams of normally distributed responses is considered, first under the assumption that their common variance is known and then for unknown variance. Finally, the more general situation in which a large sample is to be collected and analysed according to the asymptotic properties of the score statistic is explored. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mathematical model for low density lipoprotein (LDL) endocytosis by hepatocytes

Individuals with elevated levels of plasma low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (LDL-C) are considered to be at risk of developing coronary heart disease. LDL particles are removed from the blood by a process known as receptor-mediated endocytosis, which occurs mainly in the liver. A series of classical experiments delineated the major steps in the endocytotic process; apolipoprotein B-100 present on LDL particles binds to a specific receptor (LDL receptor, LDL-R) in specialized areas of the cell surface called clathrin-coated pits. The pit comprising the LDL-LDL-R complex is internalized forming a cytoplasmic endosome. Fusion of the endosome with a lysosome leads to degradation of the LDL into its constituent parts (that is, cholesterol, fatty acids, and amino acids), which are released for reuse by the cell, or are excreted. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model of LDL endocytosis, consisting of a system of ordinary differential equations. We validate our model against existing in vitro experimental data, and we use it to explore differences in system behavior when a single bolus of extracellular LDL is supplied to cells, compared to when a continuous supply of LDL particles is available. Whereas the former situation is common to in vitro experimental systems, the latter better reflects the in vivo situation. We use asymptotic analysis and numerical simulations to study the longtime behavior of model solutions. The implications of model-derived insights for experimental design are discussed.

Velocity profiles and frictional pressure drop for shear thinning materials in lid-driven cavities with fully developed axial flow

A finite element numerical study has been carried out on the isothermal flow of power law fluids in lid-driven cavities with axial throughflow. The effects of the tangential flow Reynolds number (Re-U), axial flow Reynolds number (Re-W), cavity aspect ratio and shear thinning property of the fluids on tangential and axial velocity distributions and the frictional pressure drop are studied. Where comparison is possible, very good agreement is found between current numerical results and published asymptotic and numerical results. For shear thinning materials in long thin cavities in the tangential flow dominated flow regime, the numerical results show that the frictional pressure drop lies between two extreme conditions, namely the results for duct flow and analytical results from lubrication theory. For shear thinning materials in a lid-driven cavity, the interaction between the tangential flow and axial flow is very complex because the flow is dependent on the flow Reynolds numbers and the ratio of the average axial velocity and the lid velocity. For both Newtonian and shear thinning fluids, the axial velocity peak is shifted and the frictional pressure drop is increased with increasing tangential flow Reynolds number. The results are highly relevant to industrial devices such as screw extruders and scraped surface heat exchangers. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential roles and clinical utility of prebiotics in newborns, infants, and children: proceedings from a global prebiotic summit meeting, New York City, June 27-28, 2008

Initial bacterial colonization, including colonization with health-positive bacteria, such as bifidobacteria and lactobacilli, is necessary for the normal development of intestinal innate and adaptive immune defenses. The predominance of beneficial bacteria in the gut microflora of breast-fed infants is thought to be, at least in part, supported by the metabolism of the complex mixture of oligosaccharides present in human breast milk, and a more adult-type intestinal microbiota is found in formula-fed infants. Inadequate gut colonization, dysbiosis, may lead to an increased risk of infectious, allergic, and autoimmune disorders later in life. The addition of appropriate amounts of selected prebiotics to infant formulas can enhance the growth of bifidobacteria or lactobacilli in the colonic microbiota and, thereby, might produce beneficial effects. Among the substrates considered as prebiotics are the oligosaccharides inulin, fructo-oligosaccharides, galacto-oligosaccharides, and lactulose. There are some reports that such prebiotics have beneficial effects on various markers of health. For example, primary prevention trials in infants have provided promising data on prevention of infections and atopic dermatitis. Additional well-designed prospective clinical trials and mechanistic studies are needed to advance knowledge further in this promising field. (J Pediatr 2009;155:S61-70).

Effects of bovine alpha-lactalbumin and casein glycomacropeptide-enriched infant formulae on faecal microbiota in healthy term infants

Objective: Certain milk factors may promote the growth of a host-friendly gastrointestinal microbiota, for example, one that is predominated by bifidobacteria, a perceived healthpromoting genus. This may explain why breast-fed infants experience fewer intestinal infections than their formula-fed counterparts who are believed to have a more diverse microbiota, which is similar to that of adults. The effects of formulas supplemented with 2 such ingredients from bovine milk, a-lactalbumin (alpha-lac) and casein glycomacropeptide (GMP), on gut flora were investigated in this study. Patients and Methods: Six-week-old (4-8 wk), healthy term infants were randomised to a standard infant formula or 1 of 2 test formulae enriched in alpha-Jac with higher or lower GMP until 6 months. Faecal bacteriology was determined by the culture-independent procedure fluorescence in situ hybridisation. Results: There was a large fluctuation of bacterial counts within groups with no statistically significant differences between groups. Although all groups showed a. predominance of bifidobacteria, breast-fed infants had a small temporary increase in counts. Other bacterial levels varied in formula-fed groups, which overall showed an adult-like faecal microflora. Conclusions: It can be speculated that a prebiotic effect for alpha-lac and GMP is achieved only with low starting populations of beneficial microbiota (eg, infants not initially breast-fed.

Bode's maximum available feedback and phase margin

'Maximum Available Feedback' is Bode's term for the highest possible loop gain over a given bandwidth, with specified stability margins, in a single loop feedback system. His work using asymptotic analysis allowed Bode to develop a methodology for achieving this. However, the actual system performance differs from that specified, due to the use of asymptotic approximations, and the author[2] has described how, for instance, the actual phase margin is often much lower than required when the bandwidth is high, and proposed novel modifications to the asymptotes to address the issue. This paper gives some new analysis of such systems, showing that the method also contravenes Bode's definition of phase margin, and shows how the author's modifications can be used for different amounts of bandwidth.

Achieving or exceeding maximum available feedback

A feedback system for control or electronics should have high loop gain, so that its output is close to its desired state, and the effects of changes in the system and of disturbances are minimised. Bode proposed a method for single loop feedback systems to obtain the maximum available feedback, defined as the largest possible loop gain over a bandwidth pertinent to the system, with appropriate gain and phase margins. The method uses asymptotic approximations, and this paper describes some novel adjustments to the asymptotes, so that the final system often exceeds the maximum available feedback. The implementation of the method requires the cascading of a series of lead-lag element. This paper describes a new way to determine how many elements should be used.

On two rational difference equations

In this paper, we study the oscillating property of positive solutions and the global asymptotic stability of the unique equilibrium of the two rational difference equations [GRAPHICS] and [GRAPHICS] where a is a nonnegative constant. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the recursive sequence Xn = axn-1+bxn-2/c+dxn-1xn-2

In this Paper, we study the invariant intervals, the global attractivity of the equilibrium points, and the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of the difference equation x(n) = ax(n-1) + bx(n-2) / c + dx(n-1)x(n-2), n =1, 2, ..., where a greater than or equal to 0, b, c, d > 0. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acoustic trapped modes in a three-dimensional waveguide of slowly varying cross section

In this paper we develop an asymptotic scheme to approximate the trapped mode solutions to the time harmonic wave equation in a three-dimensional waveguide with a smooth but otherwise arbitrarily shaped cross section and a single, slowly varying `bulge', symmetric in the longitudinal direction. Extending the work in Biggs (2012), we first employ a WKBJ-type ansatz to identify the possible quasi-mode solutions which propagate only in the thicker region, and hence find a finite cut-on region of oscillatory behaviour and asymptotic decay elsewhere. The WKBJ expansions are used to identify a turning point between the cut-on and cut-on regions. We note that the expansions are nonuniform in an interior layer centred on this point, and we use the method of matched asymptotic expansions to connect the cut-on and cut-on regions within this layer. The behaviour of the expansions within the interior layer then motivates the construction of a uniformly valid asymptotic expansion. Finally, we use this expansion and the symmetry of the waveguide around the longitudinal centre, x = 0, to extract trapped mode wavenumbers, which are compared with those found using a numerical scheme and seen to be extremely accurate, even to relatively large values of the small parameter.

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Studying reactive processes with classical dynamics: rebinding dynamics in MbNO

A new surface-crossing algorithm suitable for describing bond-breaking and bond-forming processes in molecular dynamics simulations is presented. The method is formulated for two intersecting potential energy manifolds which dissociate to different adiabatic states. During simulations, crossings are detected by monitoring an energy criterion. If fulfilled, the two manifolds are mixed over a finite number of time steps, after which the system is propagated on the second adiabat and the crossing is carried out with probability one. The algorithm is extensively tested (almost 0.5 mu s of total simulation time) for the rebinding of NO to myoglobin. The unbound surface ((FeNO)-N-...) is represented using a standard force field, whereas the bound surface (Fe-NO) is described by an ab initio potential energy surface. The rebinding is found to be nonexponential in time, in agreement with experimental studies, and can be described using two time constants. Depending on the asymptotic energy separation between the manifolds, the short rebinding timescale is between 1 and 9 ps, whereas the longer timescale is about an order of magnitude larger. NO molecules which do not rebind within 1 ns are typically found in the Xenon-4 pocket, indicating the high affinity of NO to this region in the protein.

Classification of instability modes in a model of aluminium reduction cells with a uniform magnetic field

A unified view on the interfacial instability in a model of aluminium reduction cells in the presence of a uniform, vertical, background magnetic field is presented. The classification of instability modes is based on the asymptotic theory for high values of parameter β, which characterises the ratio of the Lorentz force based on the disturbance current, and gravity. It is shown that the spectrum of the travelling waves consists of two parts independent of the horizontal cross-section of the cell: highly unstable wall modes and stable or weakly unstable centre, or Sele’s modes. The wall modes with the disturbance of the interface being localised at the sidewalls of the cell dominate the dynamics of instability. Sele’s modes are characterised by a distributed disturbance over the whole horizontal extent of the cell. As β increases these modes are stabilized by the field.