Métodos de aprendizagem automática: um estudo baseado na avaliação e previsão de clientes bancários

Data Mining surge, hoje em dia, como uma ferramenta importante e crucial para o sucesso de um negócio. O considerável volume de dados que atualmente se encontra disponível, por si só, não traz valor acrescentado. No entanto, as ferramentas de Data Mining, capazes de transformar dados e mais dados em conhecimento, vêm colmatar esta lacuna, constituindo, assim, um trunfo que ninguém quer perder. O presente trabalho foca-se na utilização das técnicas de Data Mining no âmbito da atividade bancária, mais concretamente na sua atividade de telemarketing. Neste trabalho são aplicados catorze algoritmos a uma base de dados proveniente do call center de um banco português, resultante de uma campanha para a angariação de clientes para depósitos a prazo com taxas de juro favoráveis. Os catorze algoritmos aplicados no caso prático deste projeto podem ser agrupados em sete grupos: Árvores de Decisão, Redes Neuronais, Support Vector Machine, Voted Perceptron, métodos Ensemble, aprendizagem Bayesiana e Regressões. De forma a beneficiar, ainda mais, do que a área de Data Mining tem para oferecer, este trabalho incide ainda sobre o redimensionamento da base de dados em questão, através da aplicação de duas estratégias de seleção de atributos: Best First e Genetic Search. Um dos objetivos deste trabalho prende-se com a comparação dos resultados obtidos com os resultados presentes no estudo dos autores Sérgio Moro, Raul Laureano e Paulo Cortez (Sérgio Moro, Laureano, & Cortez, 2011). Adicionalmente, pretende-se identificar as variáveis mais relevantes aquando da identificação do potencial cliente deste produto financeiro. Como principais conclusões, depreende-se que os resultados obtidos são comparáveis com os resultados publicados pelos autores mencionados, sendo os mesmos de qualidade e consistentes. O algoritmo Bagging é o que apresenta melhores resultados e a variável referente à duração da chamada telefónica é a que mais influencia o sucesso de campanhas similares.

Implementação de um modelo de geometric semantic genetic programming para aplicação naval

Recaí sob a responsabilidade da Marinha Portuguesa a gestão da Zona Económica Exclusiva de Portugal, assegurando a sua segurança da mesma face a atividades criminosas. Para auxiliar a tarefa, é utilizado o sistema Oversee, utilizado para monitorizar a posição de todas as embarcações presentes na área afeta, permitindo a rápida intervenção da Marinha Portuguesa quando e onde necessário. No entanto, o sistema necessita de transmissões periódicas constantes originadas nas embarcações para operar corretamente – casos as transmissões sejam interrompidas, deliberada ou acidentalmente, o sistema deixa de conseguir localizar embarcações, dificultando a intervenção da Marinha. A fim de colmatar esta falha, é proposto adicionar ao sistema Oversee a capacidade de prever as posições futuras de uma embarcação com base no seu trajeto até à cessação das transmissões. Tendo em conta os grandes volumes de dados gerados pelo sistema (históricos de posições), a área de Inteligência Artificial apresenta uma possível solução para este problema. Atendendo às necessidades de resposta rápida do problema abordado, o algoritmo de Geometric Semantic Genetic Programming baseado em referências de Vanneschi et al. apresenta-se como uma possível solução, tendo já produzido bons resultados em problemas semelhantes. O presente trabalho de tese pretende integrar o algoritmo de Geometric Semantic Genetic Programming desenvolvido com o sistema Oversee, a fim de lhe conceder capacidades preditivas. Adicionalmente, será realizado um processo de análise de desempenho a fim de determinar qual a ideal parametrização do algoritmo. Pretende-se com esta tese fornecer à Marinha Portuguesa uma ferramenta capaz de auxiliar o controlo da Zona Económica Exclusiva Portuguesa, permitindo a correta intervenção da Marinha em casos onde o atual sistema não conseguiria determinar a correta posição da embarcação em questão.

REGIME DE RADIAÇÃO SOLAR E CARACTERÍSTICAS DA VEGETAÇÃO - MODELOS DE INVERSÃO.

Um tratamento do regime de radiação no interior de florestas em conexão com a inversão de modelos matemáticos para estimar as características da vegetação (densidade de área foliar, LAI, etc.) é apresentado e discutido neste estudo. Medidas de radiação solar (PAR) realizadas no período de janeiro a abril de 1994 na Reserva Florestal Ducke (Manaus, AM) foram utilizadas para testar o algoritmo resultante e a distribuição vertical de área foliar para a vegetação local foi estabelecida.

Avaliação de técnicas de segmentação e classificação automática de imagens landsat-tm no mapeamento do uso do solo na Amazônia1

O mapeamento do uso da terra é fundamental para o entendimento dos processos de mudanças globais, especialmente em regiões como a Amazônia que estão sofrendo grande pressão de desenvolvimento. Tradicionalmente estes mapeamentos têm sido feitos utilizando técnicas de interpretação visual de imagens de satélites, que, embora de resultados satisfatórios, demandam muito tempo e alto custo. Neste trabalho é proposta uma técnica de segmentação da imagens com base em um algoritmo de crescimento de regiões, seguida de uma classificação não-supervisionada por regiões. Desta forma, a classificação temática se refere a um conjunto de elementos (pixels da imagem), beneficiando-se portanto da informação contextual e minimizando as limitações das técnicas de processamento digital baseadas em análise pontual (pixel-a-pixel). Esta técnica foi avaliada numa área típica da Amazônia, situada ao norte de Manaus, AM, utilizando imagens do sensor "Thematic Mapper" - TM do satélite Landsat, tanto na sua forma original quanto decomposta em elementos puros como vegetação verde, vegetação seca (madeira), sombra e solo, aqui denominada imagem misturas. Os resultados foram validados por um mapa de referência gerado a partir de técnicas consagradas de interpretação visual, com verificação de campo, e indicaram que a classificação automática é viável para o mapeamento de uso da terra na Amazônia. Testes estatísticos indicaram que houve concordância significativa entre as classificações automáticas digitais e o mapa de referência (em tomo de 95% de confiança).

Understanding impact readiness in Portugal’s social sector and designing a framework for capacity-building for social impact

This project is based on the theme of capacity-building in social organisations to improve their impact readiness, which is the predictability of delivering intended outcomes. All organisations which have a social mission, non-profit or for-profit, will be considered to fall within the social sector for the purpose of this work. The thesis will look at (i) what is impact readiness and what are the considerations for building impact readiness in social organisations, (ii) what is the international benchmark in measuring and building impact readiness, (iii) understand the impact readiness of Portuguese social organisations and the supply of capacity building for social impact in Portugal currently, and (iv) provide recommendations on the design of a framework for capacity building for impact readiness adapted to the Portuguese context. This work is of particular relevance to the Social Investment Laboratory, which is a sponsor of this project, in its policy work as part of the Portuguese Social Investment Taskforce (the “Taskforce”). This in turn will inform its contribution to the set-up of Portugal Inovação Social, a wholesaler catalyst entity of social innovation and social investment in the country, launched in early 2015. Whilst the output of this work will be set a recommendations for wider application for capacity-building programmes in Portugal, Portugal Inovação Social will also clearly have a role in coordinating the efforts of market players – foundations, corporations, public sector and social organisations – in implementing these recommendations. In addition, the findings of this report could have relevance to other countries seeking to design capacity building frameworks in their local markets and to any impact-driven organisations with an interest in enhancing the delivery of impact within their work.

Cell encapsulated hydrogel microspheres as "building blocks" for producing 3D constructs

Cell encapsulation within hydrogel microspheres shows great promise in the field of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine (TERM). However, the assembling of microspheres as building blocks to produce complex tissues is a hard task because of their inability to place along length scales in space. We propose a proof-of-concept strategy to produce 3D constructs using cell encapsulated as building blocks by perfusion based LbL technique. This technique exploits the â bindingâ potential of multilayers apart from coating

Desenvolvimento de ferramenta vocacionada para o dimensionamento de estruturas metálicas de acordo com a NP EN 1993-1-1

Trabalho desenvolvido em parceria com a empresa Casais.

Development of benchmarks for operating costs and resources consumption to be used in healthcare building sustainability assessment methods

Since the last decade of the twentieth century, the healthcare industry is paying attention to the environmental impact of their buildings and therefore new regulations, policy goals and Buildings Sustainability Assessment (HBSA) methods are being developed and implemented. At the present, healthcare is one of the most regulated industries and it is also one of the largest consumers of energy per net floor area. To assess the sustainability of healthcare buildings it is necessary to establish a set of benchmarks related with their life-cycle performance. They are both essential to rate the sustainability of a project and to support designers and other stakeholders in the process of designing and operating a sustainable building, by allowing the comparison to be made between a project and the conventional and best market practices. This research is focused on the methodology to set the benchmarks for resources consumption, waste production, operation costs and potential environmental impacts related to the operational phase of healthcare buildings. It aims at contributing to the reduction of the subjectivity found in the definition of the benchmarks used in Building Sustainability Assessment (BSA) methods, and it is applied in the Portuguese context. These benchmarks will be used in the development of a Portuguese HBSA method.

Toxicity measurement techniques for building materials with wastes

The innovative Horizon 2020 program sponsored by the European Union (EU) aims to promote and develop processes of waste integration in construction materials. However, several potential health hazards caused by building materials have been identified and, there-fore, there is an ongoing need to develop new recycling methods for hazardous wastes and effi-cient barriers in order to prevent toxic releases from the new construction solutions with wastes. This paper presents an overview that focus on two main aspects: the identification of the health risks related to radioactivity and heavy metals present in building materials and identification of these toxic substances in new construction solutions that contain recycled wastes. Different waste materials were selected and distinct methodologies of toxicity evaluation are presented to analyse the potential hazardous, the feasibility of using those wastes and the achievement of op-timal construction solutions involving wastes.

HLT Hilotec: self-building manual for sustainable housing

The future of the construction industry will require changes at many levels. One is the ability of companies to adapt to new challenges, converting needs to opportunities and simultaneously contributing to the solving of social and environmental problems. In the coming decades we will see a change in attitude in the industry, with a strong tendency to adopt natural and recycled materials, as well as bet on green technology and social innovation oriented to emerging countries. On the other hand, emerging countries have a high demand for housing construction on a large scale, but the current techniques in the developed countries for building requires a large amount of natural resources and skilled labor. This contextualization brings sustainability problems for the construction sector in emerging countries, often with scarce natural resources and with the construction sector underdeveloped. Through a cooperative action between the construction company Mota-Engil Engineering and the University of Minho in Portugal, a construction technology was developed based on the use of Compressed Earth Blocks as part of a social concept for innovative small houses, favoring the adoption of local and natural materials and with the main premise of being dedicated to self-construction. The HiLoTec project - Development of a Sustainable Self-Construction System for Developing Countries was based on this idea. One of the several results of this project is this construction manual. To Mota-Engil the project was a platform for incubation of knowledge about earth construction and to obtain a constructive solution validated technically and scientifically, suitable to be implemented in the markets where it operates. For the University of Minho the project was an opportunity to strengthen skills in research, laboratory and scientific development, through the development of engineering studies, architecture and sustainability, as well as supporting the doctoral scholarships and dissemination of scientific publications. May the knowledge of this project be of benefit, in the future, for the welfare of those who build a HiLoTec house.

Contribution of portuguese vernacular building strategies to indoor thermal comfort and occupants’ perception

Solar passive strategies that have been developed in vernacular architecture from different regions are a response to specific climate effects. These strategies are usually simple, low-tech and have low potential environmental impact. For this reason, several studies highlight them as having potential to reduce the demands of non-renewable energy for buildings operation. In this paper, the climatic contrast between northern and southern parts of mainland Portugal is presented, namely the regions of Beira Alta and Alentejo. Additionally, it discusses the contribution of different climate-responsive strategies developed in vernacular architecture from both regions to assure thermal comfort conditions. In Beira Alta, the use of glazed balconies as a strategy to capture solar gains is usual, while in Alentejo the focus is on passive cooling strategies. To understand the effectiveness of these strategies, thermal performances and comfort conditions of two case studies were evaluated based on the adaptive comfort model. Field tests included measurement of hygrothermal parameters and surveys on occupants’ thermal sensation. From the results, it has been found that the case studies have shown a good thermal performance by passive means alone and that the occupants feel comfortable, except during winter where there is the need to use simple heating systems.

Ancient materials and techniques to improve the earthen building durability

A substantial part of the world building heritage has been performed by earthen building. The durability of this existing heritage and mainly of the new buildings built with earth is particularly conditioned by the erosion caused by water action, especially in countries with high levels of rainfall. This research aims to contribute to the increase of knowledge about the ancient building techniques that provide enhanced durability. It is possible to analyse the ancestral practices used to protect the earth material from the water action in order to understand how the old earthen buildings were preserved over the centuries, resisting to harsh weather conditions. Among these techniques are: the incorporation of biopolymers (such as oils or fats from animal or vegetable origin); the addition of some minerals; and the earth stabilization with lime. However, this knowledge seems to be forgotten, probably due to the prejudice related to earthen constructions, which several times are associated with a poor building. This research also focuses on the study of new methods of earth stabilization with lime and biopolymers, adapting the ancient knowledge to improve the durability related to the water action. Therefore, alternative solutions can be obtained to improve the performance of earthen buildings, mainly the resistance of the material in the presence of water, reducing its permeability to water. In addition, with the proposed solutions it is possible to obtain good levels of water vapour permeability, one of the major advantages of the construction with earth.

Seismic-resistant building practices resulting from local seismic culture

Considering that vernacular architecture may bear important lessons on hazard mitigation, this chapter focuses on the European Mediterranean countries and studies traditional seismic-resistant architectural elements and techniques that local populations developed to prevent or repair earthquake damage. This area was selected as a case study because, as a highly seismic region, it has suffered the effect of many earthquakes along the history and, thus, regions within this area are prone to have developed a Local Seismic Culture. After reviewing seismic resistant construction concepts, a wide range of traditional construction solutions that, in many cases, have shown to improve the seismic performance of vernacular constructions of these regions is presented, as a contribution to the general overview of retrofitting building systems provided in this book. The main motivation is that most of these techniques can be successfully applied to preserve and to retrofit surviving examples without prejudice for their identity.

Aplicação do Building Information Modeling na gestão de projetos de construção

Dissertação de mestrado em Construção e Reabilitação Sustentáveis