Towards training-free appearance-based localization : probabilistic models for whole-image descriptors

Whole image descriptors have recently been shown to be remarkably robust to perceptual change especially compared to local features. However, whole-image-based localization systems typically rely on heuristic methods for determining appropriate matching thresholds in a particular environment. These environment-specific tuning requirements and the lack of a meaningful interpretation of these arbitrary thresholds limits the general applicability of these systems. In this paper we present a Bayesian model of probability for whole-image descriptors that can be seamlessly integrated into localization systems designed for probabilistic visual input. We demonstrate this method using CAT-Graph, an appearance-based visual localization system originally designed for a FAB-MAP-style probabilistic input. We show that using whole-image descriptors as visual input extends CAT-Graph’s functionality to environments that experience a greater amount of perceptual change. We also present a method of estimating whole-image probability models in an online manner, removing the need for a prior training phase. We show that this online, automated training method can perform comparably to pre-trained, manually tuned local descriptor methods.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

Demand-side response model to avoid spike of electricity price

The aim of this work is to develop a demand-side-response model, which assists electricity consumers exposed to the market price to independently and proactively manage air-conditioning peak electricity demand. The main contribution of this research is to show how consumers can optimize the energy cost caused by the air conditioning load considering to several cases e.g. normal price, spike price, and the probability of a price spike case. This model also investigated how air-conditioning applies a pre-cooling method when there is a substantial risk of a price spike. The results indicate the potential of the scheme to achieve financial benefits for consumers and target the best economic performance for electrical generation distribution and transmission. The model was tested with Queensland electricity market data from the Australian Energy Market Operator and Brisbane temperature data from the Bureau of Statistics regarding hot days from 2011 to 2012.

Control strategies to prevent total hip replacement-related infections : a systematic review and mixed treatment comparison

OBJECTIVE: To synthesise the available evidence and estimate the comparative efficacy of control strategies to prevent total hip replacement (THR)-related surgical site infections (SSIs) using a mixed treatment comparison. DESIGN: Systematic review and mixed treatment comparison. SETTING: Hospital and other healthcare settings. PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing THR. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The number of THR-related SSIs occurring following the surgical operation. RESULTS: 12 studies involving 123 788 THRs and 9 infection control strategies were identified. The strategy of 'systemic antibiotics+antibiotic-impregnated cement+conventional ventilation' significantly reduced the risk of THR-related SSI compared with the referent strategy (no systemic antibiotics+plain cement+conventional ventilation), OR 0.13 (95% credible interval (CrI) 0.03-0.35), and had the highest probability (47-64%) and highest median rank of being the most effective strategy. There was some evidence to suggest that 'systemic antibiotics+antibiotic-impregnated cement+laminar airflow' could potentially increase infection risk compared with 'systemic antibiotics+antibiotic-impregnated cement+conventional ventilation', 1.96 (95% CrI 0.52-5.37). There was no high-quality evidence that antibiotic-impregnated cement without systemic antibiotic prophylaxis was effective in reducing infection compared with plain cement with systemic antibiotics, 1.28 (95% CrI 0.38-3.38). CONCLUSIONS: We found no convincing evidence in favour of the use of laminar airflow over conventional ventilation for prevention of THR-related SSIs, yet laminar airflow is costly and widely used. Antibiotic-impregnated cement without systemic antibiotics may not be effective in reducing THR-related SSIs. The combination with the highest confidence for reducing SSIs was 'systemic antibiotics+antibiotic-impregnated cement+conventional ventilation'. Our evidence synthesis underscores the need to review current guidelines based on the available evidence, and to conduct further high-quality double-blind randomised controlled trials to better inform the current clinical guidelines and practice for prevention of THR-related SSIs.

Optimization of an integrated model for automatic reduction and expansion of long queries

A long query provides more useful hints for searching relevant documents, but it is likely to introduce noise which affects retrieval performance. In order to smooth such adverse effect, it is important to reduce noisy terms, introduce and boost additional relevant terms. This paper presents a comprehensive framework, called Aspect Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), which integrates query reduction and expansion, for retrieval with long queries. It optimizes the probability distribution of query terms by utilizing intra-query term dependencies as well as the relationships between query terms and words observed in relevance feedback documents. Empirical evaluation on three large-scale TREC collections demonstrates that our approach, which is automatic, achieves salient improvements over various strong baselines, and also reaches a comparable performance to a state of the art method based on user’s interactive query term reduction and expansion.

Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Kelp detection in highly dynamic environments using texture recognition

This paper describes a texture recognition based method for segmenting kelp from images collected in highly dynamic shallow water environments by an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). A particular challenge is image quality that is affected by uncontrolled lighting, reduced visibility, significantly varying perspective due to platform egomotion, and kelp sway from wave action. The kelp segmentation approach uses the Mahalanobis distance as a way to classify Haralick texture features from sub-regions within an image. The results illustrate the applicability of the method to classify kelp allowing construction of probability maps of kelp masses across a sequence of images.

Nurse-led chest drain removal in a cardiac high dependency unit

Within the cardiac high dependency unit it is currently a member of the surgical team who makes the decision for a patient's chest drain to be removed after cardiac surgery. This has often resulted in delays in discharging one patient and therefore in admitting the next. A pilot study was carried out using a working standard that had been developed, incorporating an algorithmic model. The results have enabled nursing staff in a cardiac high dependency unit to undertake this responsibility independently.

GNSS ambiguity resolution with controllable failure rate for long baseline network RTK

Many large-scale GNSS CORS networks have been deployed around the world to support various commercial and scientific applications. To make use of these networks for real-time kinematic positioning services, one of the major challenges is the ambiguity resolution (AR) over long inter-station baselines in the presence of considerable atmosphere biases. Usually, the widelane ambiguities are fixed first, followed by the procedure of determination of the narrowlane ambiguity integers based on the ionosphere-free model in which the widelane integers are introduced as known quantities. This paper seeks to improve the AR performance over long baseline through efficient procedures for improved float solutions and ambiguity fixing. The contribution is threefold: (1) instead of using the ionosphere-free measurements, the absolute and/or relative ionospheric constraints are introduced in the ionosphere-constrained model to enhance the model strength, thus resulting in the better float solutions; (2) the realistic widelane ambiguity precision is estimated by capturing the multipath effects due to the observation complexity, leading to improvement of reliability of widelane AR; (3) for the narrowlane AR, the partial AR for a subset of ambiguities selected according to the successively increased elevation is applied. For fixing the scalar ambiguity, an error probability controllable rounding method is proposed. The established ionosphere-constrained model can be efficiently solved based on the sequential Kalman filter. It can be either reduced to some special models simply by adjusting the variances of ionospheric constraints, or extended with more parameters and constraints. The presented methodology is tested over seven baselines of around 100 km from USA CORS network. The results show that the new widelane AR scheme can obtain the 99.4 % successful fixing rate with 0.6 % failure rate; while the new rounding method of narrowlane AR can obtain the fix rate of 89 % with failure rate of 0.8 %. In summary, the AR reliability can be efficiently improved with rigorous controllable probability of incorrectly fixed ambiguities.

A Satellite Selection Algorithm for Achieving High Reliability of Ambiguity Resolution with GPS and Beidou Constellations

Reliability of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) of an integer least-squares (ILS) problem depends on ambiguity success rate (ASR), which in practice can be well approximated by the success probability of integer bootstrapping solutions. With the current GPS constellation, sufficiently high ASR of geometry-based model can only be achievable at certain percentage of time. As a result, high reliability of AR cannot be assured by the single constellation. In the event of dual constellations system (DCS), for example, GPS and Beidou, which provide more satellites in view, users can expect significant performance benefits such as AR reliability and high precision positioning solutions. Simply using all the satellites in view for AR and positioning is a straightforward solution, but does not necessarily lead to high reliability as it is hoped. The paper presents an alternative approach that selects a subset of the visible satellites to achieve a higher reliability performance of the AR solutions in a multi-GNSS environment, instead of using all the satellites. Traditionally, satellite selection algorithms are mostly based on the position dilution of precision (PDOP) in order to meet accuracy requirements. In this contribution, some reliability criteria are introduced for GNSS satellite selection, and a novel satellite selection algorithm for reliable ambiguity resolution (SARA) is developed. The SARA algorithm allows receivers to select a subset of satellites for achieving high ASR such as above 0.99. Numerical results from a simulated dual constellation cases show that with the SARA procedure, the percentages of ASR values in excess of 0.99 and the percentages of ratio-test values passing the threshold 3 are both higher than those directly using all satellites in view, particularly in the case of dual-constellation, the percentages of ASRs (>0.99) and ratio-test values (>3) could be as high as 98.0 and 98.5 % respectively, compared to 18.1 and 25.0 % without satellite selection process. It is also worth noting that the implementation of SARA is simple and the computation time is low, which can be applied in most real-time data processing applications.

Estimating interference in the QPRP for subtopic retrieval

The Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP) has been recently proposed, and accounts for interdependent document relevance when ranking. However, to be instantiated, the QPRP requires a method to approximate the interference" between two documents. In this poster, we empirically evaluate a number of different methods of approximation on two TREC test collections for subtopic retrieval. It is shown that these approximations can lead to significantly better retrieval performance over the state of the art.

The interactive PRP for diversifying document rankings

The assumptions underlying the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP) have led to a number of alternative approaches that cater or compensate for the PRP's limitations. In this poster we focus on the Interactive PRP (iPRP), which rejects the assumption of independence between documents made by the PRP. Although the theoretical framework of the iPRP is appealing, no instantiation has been proposed and investigated. In this poster, we propose a possible instantiation of the principle, performing the first empirical comparison of the iPRP against the PRP. For document diversification, our results show that the iPRP is significantly better than the PRP, and comparable to or better than other methods such as Modern Portfolio Theory.

Social tagging, guppy effect and the role of interference : a quantum-inspired model for tags combination

Social tagging systems are shown to evidence a well known cognitive heuristic, the guppy effect, which arises from the combination of different concepts. We present some empirical evidence of this effect, drawn from a popular social tagging Web service. The guppy effect is then described using a quantum inspired formalism that has been already successfully applied to model conjunction fallacy and probability judgement errors. Key to the formalism is the concept of interference, which is able to capture and quantify the strength of the guppy effect.

Revisiting sub-topic retrieval in the ImageCLEF 2009 photo retrieval task

Ranking documents according to the Probability Ranking Principle has been theoretically shown to guarantee optimal retrieval effectiveness in tasks such as ad hoc document retrieval. This ranking strategy assumes independence among document relevance assessments. This assumption, however, often does not hold, for example in the scenarios where redundancy in retrieved documents is of major concern, as it is the case in the sub–topic retrieval task. In this chapter, we propose a new ranking strategy for sub–topic retrieval that builds upon the interdependent document relevance and topic–oriented models. With respect to the topic– oriented model, we investigate both static and dynamic clustering techniques, aiming to group topically similar documents. Evidence from clusters is then combined with information about document dependencies to form a new document ranking. We compare and contrast the proposed method against state–of–the–art approaches, such as Maximal Marginal Relevance, Portfolio Theory for Information Retrieval, and standard cluster–based diversification strategies. The empirical investigation is performed on the ImageCLEF 2009 Photo Retrieval collection, where images are assessed with respect to sub–topics of a more general query topic. The experimental results show that our approaches outperform the state–of–the–art strategies with respect to a number of diversity measures.