Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design

Design work involves uncertainty that arises from, and influences, the progressive development of solutions. This paper analyses the influences of evolving uncertainty levels on the design process. We focus on uncertainties associated with choosing the values of design parameters, and do not consider in detail the issues that arise when parameters must first be identified. Aspects of uncertainty and its evolution are discussed, and a new task-based model is introduced to describe process behaviour in terms of changing uncertainty levels. The model is applied to study two process configuration problems based on aircraft wing design: one using an analytical solution and one using Monte-Carlo simulation. The applications show that modelling uncertainty levels during design can help assess management policies, such as how many concepts should be considered during design and to what level of accuracy. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Multi-fidelity simulation modelling in optimization of a hybrid submarine propulsion system

Multi-objective Genetic Algorithms have become a popular choice to aid in optimising the size of the whole hybrid power train. Within these optimisation processes, other optimisation techniques for the control strategy are implemented. This optimisation within an optimisation requires many simulations to be run, so reducing the computational cost is highly desired. This paper presents an optimisation framework consisting of a series hybrid optimisation algorithm, in which a global search optimizes a submarine propulsion system using low-fidelity models and, in order to refine the results, a local search is used with high-fidelity models. The effectiveness of the Hybrid optimisation algorithm is demonstrated with the optimisation of a submarine propulsion system. © 2011 EPE Association - European Power Electr.

Optimization of dose of methyltestosterone (MT) hormone for sex reversal in tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.)

This paper describes the optimization of dose of methyltestosteronei (MT) hormone for masculinization of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). Five treatments (i.e. T1 T2, T2, T4 and T5) with different doses such as 0, 40, 50, 60 and 65 mg of MT hormone were mixed with per kg of feed for each treatment and fed the fry four times a day up to satiation for a period of 30 days. The stocking density was maintained 10 spawn/liter of water. The growth of fry at different treatments was recorded weekly and mortality was recorded daily. At the end of hormone feeding the fry were reared in hapas fixed in ponds for another 70 days and at the 100th day the fish were sexed by the gonad squashing and aceto-carmine staining method. The analysis of growth data did not show any significant variation in length and weight of fish among the different treatments. High mortality of fry ranging 66% to 81.6% was observed in different treatments and highest mortality was observed during the first twelve days of the experiment. The sex ratio analysis showed that T2 (40 mg/kg) and T5 (65 mg/kg) produced 93.33% of sex reversed male and T3 (50 mg/kg) and T4 (60 mg/kg) produced 96.66% sex reversed male, and these ratios were significantly (p<0.05) different from 1:1 male: female sex ratio. The control, T1 (0 mg/kg) contained 43.33% male progeny. From these results it is suggested that either 50 mg/kg or 60 mg/kg of MT with a feeding period of 30 days could be considered as an optimum dose for masculinization of tilapia (O. niloticus).