Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Genetic analyses reveal high levels of seed and pollen flow in hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna Jacq.), a key component of hedgerows

Hedgerows represent important components of agri-environment landscapes that are increasingly coming under threat from climate change, emergent diseases, invasive species and land use change. Given that population genetic data can be used to inform best-practice management strategies for woodland and hedgerow tree species, we carried out a study on hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna Jacq.), a key component of hedgerows, on a regional basis using a combination of nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite markers. We found that levels of genetic diversity were high and comparable to, or slightly higher than, other tree species from the same region. Levels of population differentiation for both sets of markers, however, were extremely low, suggesting extensive gene flow via both seed and pollen. These findings suggest that a holistic approach to woodland management, one which does not necessarily rely on the concept of “seed zones” previously suggested, but which also takes into account populations with high and/or rare chloroplast (i.e. seed-specific) genetic variation, might be the best approach to restocking and replanting.

Opportunities and constraints of transhumant small ruminant production in the Chinese Altay Mountains

This PhD thesis focuses on current livelihoods of agro-pastoral livestock keepers, their animal nutrition, herd and rangeland management strategies. It thereby aims to contribute to sustainable rangeland management, livestock production and household income in Qinghe county of the Chinese Altay Mountain region, located in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, PR China. In its first part the study characterizes the socio-economic situation and agricultural practices of agro-pastoralists through structured household interviews. The second part provides insights into the grazing behaviour and feed intake of small ruminants on seasonal pastures in this region, and into the quantitative and qualitative biomass offer on natural rangelands. The third part analyses the reproductive performance and annual growth of the local sheep and goat herds, and, by modelling improved feeding and culling strategies, tests herd management options that potentially improve the monetary output per female herd animal without increasing the pressure onto natural rangelands. Taken together, the results of the study suggest that, despite an increase and intensification of cropping and vegetable gardening in the region of Qinghe, livestock rearing is still the major livelihood strategy both in terms of prevalence and relative importance. However, livestock keeping is challenged by low biomass production on rangelands, due to the combined impact of high climate variability and highly localized grazing pressure on the seasonal pastures. Though government regulations try to tackle the latter aspect, their implementation is sometimes difficult. Alternatives to strict regulation of grazing periods and animal numbers on seasonal pastures are, in the case of goats, more rigorous culling strategies and, in the case of sheep and goats, strategic supplementation of the animals in the winter and spring season. However, for the latter strategy to become economically viable, an improvement of live animal and meat marketing options and an investment in local meat processing facilities that add value to the carcasses is needed. As the regional cities grow rapidly, the potential market to absorb diverse and good quality meat products is there, along with the road network connecting Qinghe county to the regional capital. Such governmental measures will not only create new job opportunities in the region but also benefit the cash income of pastoralists in this westernmost region of China.

Macroinvertebrate Community Composition and Diversity in Ephemeral and Perennial Ponds on Unregulated Floodplain Meadows in the UK

Ponds are common and abundant landscape features in temperate environments, particularly on floodplains where lateral connectivity with riverine systems persists. Despite their widespread occurrence and importance to regional diversity, research on the ecology and hydrology of temperate ephemeral and perennial floodplain ponds lags behind that of other shallow waterbodies. This study examines the aquatic macroinvertebrate diversity of 34 ponds (20 perennial and 14 ephemeral) on two unregulated riverine floodplain meadows in Leicestershire, UK. Perennial ponds supported nearly twice the diversity of ephemeral ponds. Despite frequent inundation of floodwater and connectivity with other floodplain waterbodies, ephemeral ponds supported distinct invertebrate communities when compared to perennial ponds. When the relative importance of physical and chemical, biological and spatial characteristics was examined, physical and chemical characteristics were found to account for more variation in community composition than biological or spatial variables. The results suggest that niche characteristics rather than neutral colonisation processes dominate the structure of invertebrate communities of floodplain ponds. The maintenance of pond networks with varying hydroperiod lengths and environmental characteristics should be encouraged as part of conservation management strategies to provide heterogeneous environmental conditions to support and enhance aquatic biodiversity at a landscape scale.

Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.

Exercise Prescription for Patients with Non-specific Chronic Low Back Pain: a Qualitative Study of Patients' Experiences in Decision Making

Background The culture of current clinical practice calls for collaboration between therapists and patients, sharing power and responsibility. This paper reports on the findings of a qualitative study of exercise prescription for patients with NSCLBP, taking into account issues such as decision making and how this accords with patient preferences and experiences. Objective To understand the treatment decision making experiences, information and decision support needs of patients with NSCLBP who have been offered exercise as part of their management plan. Design A qualitative study using a philosophical hermeneutic approach. Methods Semi-structured interviews with eight patients (including use of brief patient vignettes) was undertaken to explore their personal experiences of receiving exercise as part of the management of their NSCLBP, and their involvement in decisions regarding their care. Findings The findings provide a detailed insight into patients’ perceptions and experiences of receiving exercise-based management strategies. Four themes were formed from the texts: (1) patients’ expectations and patients’ needs are not synonymous, (2) information is necessary but often not sufficient, (3) not all decisions need to be shared, and (4) wanting to be treated as an individual. Conclusions Shared decision making did not appear to happen in physiotherapy clinical practice, but equally may not be what every patient wants. The overall feeling of the patients was that the therapist was dominant in structuring the interactions, leaving the patients feeling disempowered to question and contribute to the decision making.

Dry Run Creek Watershed Improvement Project 1248-023: Final Project Report: July 2013-December 2015, October 11, 2016

In 2010 a group of farmers in the Dry Run Creek watershed, an Iowa High Quality Water Resource, formed the Dry Run Creek Watershed Improvement Association to learn more about and implement solutions to remedy a bacteria impairment in their stream. Through a partnership with Luther College, Iowa DNR Watershed Monitoring and Assessment and Iowa State University Extension the farmers were able to conduct an assessment of their stream and watershed. The assessment showed multiple potential sources of bacteria, dependent on whether water samples were collected following rain events or during dry conditions. This project will allow watershed farmers to implement solutions to reduce bacteria delivery during both wet and dry weather. Funding will be targeted to feedlot runoff control improvements, cover crops and vegetative filters, manure management strategies and livestock stream access. The council intends to continue intensive water monitoring to determine whether the strategies are successful. Research shows the bacteria reduction in water bodies can be seen relatively quickly, within 1-2 years, compared to other types of impairments.

Dry Run Creek Watershed Improvement Project 1248-023, Final Project Report: July 2013-December 2015, March 26, 2015

In 2010 a group of farmers in the Dry Run Creek watershed, an Iowa High Quality Water Resource, formed the Dry Run Creek Watershed Improvement Association to learn more about and implement solutions to remedy a bacteria impairment in their stream. Through a partnership with Luther College, Iowa DNR Watershed Monitoring and Assessment and Iowa State University Extension the farmers were able to conduct an assessment of their stream and watershed. The assessment showed multiple potential sources of bacteria, dependent on whether water samples were collected following rain events or during dry conditions. This project will allow watershed farmers to implement solutions to reduce bacteria delivery during both wet and dry weather. Funding will be targeted to feedlot runoff control improvements, cover crops and vegetative filters, manure management strategies and livestock stream access. The council intends to continue intensive water monitoring to determine whether the strategies are successful. Research shows the bacteria reduction in water bodies can be seen relatively quickly, within 1-2 years, compared to other types of impairments.

Supervisão colaborativa para uma educação inclusiva : um estudo com professores do ensino regular

Este trabalho, desenvolvido por uma professora de educação especial no contexto onde exerce funções, resultou da vontade de aprofundar o conhecimento sobre as dinâmicas de trabalho entre os professores do Ensino Regular e entre estes e o professor de Educação Especial. Desta forma elaborámos um projeto de investigação com o propósito de aprofundar o conhecimento sobre estas dinâmicas, no âmbito de uma oficina de formação, dinamizada pela investigadora, realizada no contexto de trabalho dos participantes. Neste âmbito, foi proporcionado um conjunto de experiências vivenciadas em conjunto, procurando contribuir para novas perspetivas teóricas sobre o conhecimento, bem como o envolvimento dos participantes em situações empíricas que lhes permitissem aplicar esses conhecimentos na resolução de problemas concretos emergentes no seu contexto de trabalho. A estratégia formativa baseou-se na colaboração como factor de desenvolvimento e de aprendizagem, surgindo como relevante e necessário o envolvimento dos formandos em processos de investigação da própria prática. A formação, na modalidade de Oficina, foi promovida através do Centro de Formação da Instituição onde a escola, um estabelecimento de ensino particular e cooperativo, se integra. Neste âmbito foi acreditada pelo Conselho Científico-Pedagógico da Formação Contínua e envolveu dezasseis professores do 1.º, 2.º e 3.º ciclos do ensino básico. A formação desenvolveuse em duas fases - a primeira fase, constituída por 4 sessões, teve lugar entre maio e julho de 2011, e a segunda fase, igualmente constituída por 4 sessões, teve lugar de setembro a novembro de 2011, num total de 25 horas presenciais e 25 horas não presenciais. Trata-se de um estudo com uma dupla intencionalidade – formativa e investigativa – no qual se procura compreender (i) a relação entre as estratégias de formação e supervisão promovidas pela professora de educação especial e o desenvolvimento de dinâmicas de trabalho colaborativo entre os participantes (ii) e o impacto dessas dinâmicas no desenvolvimento profissional e nas suas práticas, tendo em vista a promoção de uma educação inclusiva. Configura-se como estudo de caso, na variante de multicaso apresentando, ainda, algumas características de investigação-ação. No âmbito deste estudo, utilizámos um conjunto diverso e complementar de procedimentos investigativos, nomeadamente, o inquérito por questionário aplicado a todos os participantes no início e no fim da oficina de formação; o inquérito por questionário de avaliação das sessões, tendo por base os objetivos do estudo; a entrevista semi-estruturada, realizada a quatro docentes do 1º CEB que constituem os subcasos e o portfolio reflexivo individual dos mesmos, os quais se constituem como estratégia de formação e de investigação. Recorreu-se, ainda, como fontes de informação secundária, ao Teaching portfolio do investigador, às videogravações das sessões de formação, aos registos em vídeo de alguns episódios relativos à intervenção dos formandos em sala de aula e aos projetos de investigação-ação, bem como aos dados recolhidos na entrevista dirigida ao Diretor do estabelecimento de educação e ensino, depois de concluído o programa de formação. Os resultados da análise parecem evidenciar a existência de dinâmicas colaborativas e um clima de inter-ajuda que caraterizou a interação ocorrida na formação, em torno de casos concretos, os quais tiveram um impacto significativo sobre o pensamento e a prática dos participantes. Todo o processo desenvolvido parece ter dado lugar à partilha de saberes e à procura conjunta de soluções para os problemas, tendo contribuído para que os professores passassem a ser mais interventivos, evidenciando novas aprendizagens e uma maior consciencialização do conceito de educação para todos e do que esta implica. Os resultados parecem ainda revelar o desenvolvimento de uma parceria estratégica entre os professores do ensino regular e a professora de educação especial, a qual passou a ser aceite como uma pessoa que pode ajudar a encontrar soluções para os problemas que surgem na sala de aula, de forma a garantir a inclusão de todos os alunos e não apenas dos que têm necessidades educativas especiais.

L'accessibilité aux services de physiothérapie en clinique externe dans les centres hospitaliers du Québec

Des contraintes d’accessibilité aux services de physiothérapie en clinique externe ont été rapportées dans les établissements publics au Canada. Celles-ci se traduisent souvent par un temps d’attente élevé avant d’obtenir des services. Différentes stratégies ont été proposées afin de gérer les listes d’attente, mais leur impact sur le temps d’attente est méconnu, notamment dans le contexte des services de physiothérapie au Québec. Le but de cette étude était de documenter l’accessibilité aux services de physiothérapie en clinique externe dans les centres hospitaliers au Québec. Les objectifs spécifiques étaient de 1) décrire les caractéristiques organisationnelles en lien avec l’accessibilité aux services de physiothérapie, 2) quantifier le temps d’attente pour accéder aux services et 3) explorer l’association entre les caractéristiques organisationnelles et le temps d’attente. Une enquête a été réalisée dans les cliniques externes de physiothérapie des centres hospitaliers publics du Québec offrant des services à des adultes souffrant de troubles musculosquelettiques. Des données ont été obtenues auprès de 97 (99%) centres hospitaliers. Au moment de l’enquête, 18 245 personnes étaient sur les listes d’attente. Le temps d’attente médian était de plus de six mois dans 41% des centres hospitaliers. Parmi les pratiques organisationnelles et les stratégies de gestion de listes d’attente évaluées, les politiques en cas d’annulation ou d’absence (99%) et la priorisation des demandes (96%) étaient les plus utilisées. Selon les résultats d’analyses multivariées, seule l’utilisation d’une méthode de priorisation comprenant une rencontre d’évaluation et une intervention initiale était associée au temps d’attente (p=0,008). Les résultats de cette étude démontrent qu’une grande quantité de personnes sont inscrites sur les listes d’attente des services de physiothérapie et que le temps d’attente peut être très élevé. D’après nos résultats, l’implantation d’une méthode de priorisation comprenant une évaluation et une intervention pourrait permettre d’améliorer l’accès en temps opportun aux services de physiothérapie.

Vacuum-assisted closure treatment of leg skin necrosis after angiographic embolization of a giant plexiform neurofibroma

Type 1 neurofibromatosis is a relatively common inherited disease of the nervous system, with a frequency of almost 1 in 3000. It is associated with neurofibromas of various sites. Our case report is about the surgical management of a giant neurofibroma of the right gluteal fold in a 46-year-old male with NF1. The patient presented with increasing edema and accelerated growth of the mass; he underwent percutaneous embolization of lesion vessels that induced necrosis of the neurofibroma. The patient was taken to the operating room, where surgical resection of the bulk of the lesion was undertaken. The postoperative course was complicated by delayed wound closure managed with antibiotics and vacuum-assisted wound closure. Giant neurofibromas similar to this tumor require complex preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative management strategies. Surgical debulk is best managed with preoperative percutaneous embolization that help to avoid surgical bleeding. Postoperative delayed wound closure was managed with the application of negative pressure in a closed environment that triggers granulation and tissue formation.

SOCIAL STRUCTURE OF ASIAN ELEPHANTS (ELEPHAS MAXIMUS) IN SRI LANKA

Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are critically endangered and live in fragmented populations spread across 13 countries. Yet in comparison to the African savannah elephant (Loxodonta africana), relatively little is known about the social structure of wild Asian elephants because the species is mostly found in low visibility habitat. A better understanding of Asian elephant social structure is critical to mitigate human-elephant conflicts that arise due to increasing human encroachments into elephant habitats. In this dissertation, I examined the social structure of Asian elephants at three sites: Yala, Udawalawe, and Minneriya National Parks in Sri Lanka, where the presence of large open areas and high elephant densities are conducive to behavioral observations. First, I found that the size of groups observed at georeferenced locations was affected by forage availability and distance to water, and the effects of these environmental factors on group size depended on site. Second, I discovered that while populations at different sites differed in the prevalence of weak associations among individuals, a core social structure of individuals sharing strong bonds and organized into highly independent clusters was present across sites. Finally, I showed that the core social structure preserved across sites was typically composed of adult females associating with each other and with other age-sex classes. In addition, I showed that females are social at all life stages, whereas males gradually transition from living in a group to a more solitary lifestyle. Taking into consideration these elements of Asian elephant social structure will help conservation biologists develop effective management strategies that account for both human needs and the socio-ecology of the elephants.

Coffee Berry Borer Joins Bark Beetles in Coffee Klatch

Unanswered key questions in bark beetle-plant interactions concern host finding in species attacking angiosperms in tropical zones and whether management strategies based on chemical signaling used for their conifer-attacking temperate relatives may also be applied in the tropics. We hypothesized that there should be a common link in chemical signaling mediating host location by these Scolytids. Using laboratory behavioral assays and chemical analysis we demonstrate that the yellow-orange exocarp stage of coffee berries, which attracts the coffee berry borer, releases relatively high amounts of volatiles including conophthorin, chalcogran, frontalin and sulcatone that are typically associated with Scolytinae chemical ecology. The green stage of the berry produces a much less complex bouquet containing small amounts of conophthorin but no other compounds known as bark beetle semiochemicals. In behavioral assays, the coffee berry borer was attracted to the spiroacetals conophthorin and chalcogran, but avoided the monoterpenes verbenone and a-pinene, demonstrating that, as in their conifer-attacking relatives in temperate zones, the use of host and non-host volatiles is also critical in host finding by tropical species. We speculate that microorganisms formed a common basis for the establishment of crucial chemical signals comprising inter-and intraspecific communication systems in both temperate-and tropical-occurring bark beetles attacking gymnosperms and angiosperms.

Destino no ambiente e comportamento agronômico de atrazina em resposta a doses e níveis de palha de espécies de cobertura de solo

The use of cover crops is a fundamental strategy to the weed management in Southern Brazil. In highly infested areas, the herbicides use is increasing, which increases the costs of the crops production as well as the environmental contamination. Oat and velvet bean plants havecontrasting characteristics regarding to residues decomposition speed and the capacity to immobilize Nitrogen in the soil, providing distinct results of weeds suppression throughout the time, and therefore, requiring distinct management strategies before, during, and after the corn crop establishment. The general objective of the experiment was to evaluate the environmental dynamics of the herbicide atrazine, the corn grain yield, and the efficiency of the weed control, considering areas with distinct history regarding the use of mulching, levels of straw and rates of atrazine. For this, the experiment was carried out in two parts: in the first part, two trials with the corn crop were established, one using oat and the other using velvet bean as cover crops. The experimental design used for both field trials was randomized complete blocks arrangement with four replications. The factor A was constituted by four levels of straw (0; 0.75x; 1.5x; 3x) and the factor B was constituted by four rates of the herbicide atrazine (0; 2100; 4200; 8400 g a i. ha-1). Soil samples were collected for greenhouse trialsto determine the persistence. Atrazine leaching evaluation was performed by chromatography using samples collected over the soil profile.In the field, the weed density, the fresh and dry weight and the yield of the corn were evaluated. In the greenhouse trials, the main variables evaluated were plant height and injury caused by the herbicide toxicity. In the second part, soils with distinct covering history were sampled, and the mineralization and sorption studies, both with 14C-atrazine, were conducted in the laboratory. The experimental design was randomized complete blocks arrangement with four replications. The results from the field experiment show that the high levels of straw above ground, isolated, were not efficient to control completely the weeds, and that high levels of velvet bean`s straw decreased the corn potential yield. The greenhouse trials showed that high levels of oat straw prevent the scape of atrazine to soil, this effect of oat straw upon the herbicide availability on soil was detected up to 12 days after spraying. The half-life of atrazine sprayed over oat straw varied from 7 to 14 days after spraying, while the half-life of atrazine sprayed over velvet bean varied from 5 to 14 days after spraying. Increasing oat straw levels presents the capacity to reduce the lixiviation of atrazine in the soil profile, however, this effect was not verified when using velvet bean straw, because the herbicide was not detected in the soil profile, at 21 days after spraying. The chromatographic analysis indicate thatthe atrazine concentrates closer to the soil surface regardless of amount of straw, not being detected deeper than 8 cm in the soil. The accumulated mineralization of 14C-arazine sprayed over V. sativa is superior if compared to soils with S. cereale or non-covered soils. The sorption coefficient of atrazine is superior when sprayed over straw than over the soil.