North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment

This study investigates the response of wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) as simulated by 18 global coupled general circulation models that participated in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). NAO has been assessed in control and transient 80-year simulations produced by each model under constant forcing, and 1% per year increasing concentrations of CO2, respectively. Although generally able to simulate the main features of NAO, the majority of models overestimate the observed mean wintertime NAO index of 8 hPa by 5-10 hPa. Furthermore, none of the models, in either the control or perturbed simulations, are able to reproduce decadal trends as strong as that seen in the observed NAO index from 1970-1995. Of the 15 models able to simulate the NAO pressure dipole, 13 predict a positive increase in NAO with increasing CO2 concentrations. The magnitude of the response is generally small and highly model-dependent, which leads to large uncertainty in multi-model estimates such as the median estimate of 0.0061 +/- 0.0036 hPa per %CO2. Although an increase of 0.61 hPa in NAO for a doubling in CO2 represents only a relatively small shift of 0.18 standard deviations in the probability distribution of winter mean NAO, this can cause large relative increases in the probabilities of extreme values of NAO associated with damaging impacts. Despite the large differences in NAO responses, the models robustly predict similar statistically significant changes in winter mean temperature (warmer over most of Europe) and precipitation (an increase over Northern Europe). Although these changes present a pattern similar to that expected due to an increase in the NAO index, linear regression is used to show that the response is much greater than can be attributed to small increases in NAO. NAO trends are not the key contributor to model-predicted climate change in wintertime mean temperature and precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean region. However, the models' inability to capture the observed decadal variability in NAO might also signify a major deficiency in their ability to simulate the NAO-related responses to climate change.

The influence of hilly terrain on canopy-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange

Topography influences many aspects of forest-atmosphere carbon exchange; yet only a small number of studies have considered the role of topography on the structure of turbulence within and above vegetation and its effect on canopy photosynthesis and the measurement of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (N-ee) using flux towers. Here, we focus on the interplay between radiative transfer, flow dynamics for neutral stratification, and ecophysiological controls on CO2 sources and sinks within a canopy on a gentle cosine hill. We examine how topography alters the forest-atmosphere CO2 exchange rate when compared to uniform flat terrain using a newly developed first-order closure model that explicitly accounts for the flow dynamics, radiative transfer, and nonlinear eco physiological processes within a plant canopy. We show that variation in radiation and airflow due to topography causes only a minor departure in horizontally averaged and vertically integrated photosynthesis from their flat terrain values. However, topography perturbs the airflow and concentration fields in and above plant canopies, leading to significant horizontal and vertical advection of CO2. Advection terms in the conservation equation may be neglected in flow over homogeneous, flat terrain, and then N-ee = F-c, the vertical turbulent flux of CO2. Model results suggest that vertical and horizontal advection terms are generally of opposite sign and of the same order as the biological sources and sinks. We show that, close to the hilltop, F-c departs by a factor of three compared to its flat terrain counterpart and that the horizontally averaged F-c-at canopy top differs by more than 20% compared to the flat-terrain case.