On-line breath analysis of volatile organic compounds as a method for colorectal cancer detection

Background: Analysis of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in breath is an emerging approach for cancer diagnosis, but little is known about its potential use as a biomarker for colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated whether a combination of VOCs could distinct CRC patients from healthy volunteers. Methods: In a pilot study, we prospectively analyzed breath exhalations of 38 CRC patient and 43 healthy controls all scheduled for colonoscopy, older than 50 in the average-risk category. The samples were ionized and analyzed using a Secondary ElectroSpray Ionization (SESI) coupled with a Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (SESI-MS). After a minimum of 2 hours fasting, volunteers deeply exhaled into the system. Each test requires three soft exhalations and takes less than ten minutes. No breath condensate or collection are required and VOCs masses are detected in real time, also allowing for a spirometric profile to be analyzed along with the VOCs. A new sampling system precludes ambient air from entering the system, so background contamination is reduced by an overall factor of ten. Potential confounding variables from the patient or the environment that could interfere with results were analyzed. Results: 255 VOCs, with masses ranging from 30 to 431 Dalton have been identified in the exhaled breath. Using a classification technique based on the ROC curve for each VOC, a set of 9 biomarkers discriminating the presence of CRC from healthy volunteers was obtained, showing an average recognition rate of 81.94%, a sensitivity of 87.04% and specificity of 76.85%. Conclusions: A combination of cualitative and cuantitative analysis of VOCs in the exhaled breath could be a powerful diagnostic tool for average-risk CRC population. These results should be taken with precaution, as many endogenous or exogenous contaminants could interfere as confounding variables. On-line analysis with SESI-MS is less time-consuming and doesn’t need sample preparation. We are recruiting in a new pilot study including breath cleaning procedures and spirometric analysis incorporated into the postprocessing algorithms, to better control for confounding variables.

Integración de la calidad del aire en la planificación física

En esta tesis se presenta una nueva aproximación para la realización de mapas de calidad del aire, con objeto de que esta variable del medio físico pueda ser tenida en cuenta en los procesos de planificación física o territorial. La calidad del aire no se considera normalmente en estos procesos debido a su composición y a la complejidad de su comportamiento, así como a la dificultad de contar con información fiable y contrastada. Además, la variabilidad espacial y temporal de las medidas de calidad del aire hace que sea difícil su consideración territorial y exige la georeferenciación de la información. Ello implica la predicción de medidas para lugares del territorio donde no existen datos. Esta tesis desarrolla un modelo geoestadístico para la predicción de valores de calidad del aire en un territorio. El modelo propuesto se basa en la interpolación de las medidas de concentración de contaminantes registradas en las estaciones de monitorización, mediante kriging ordinario, previa homogeneización de estos datos para eliminar su carácter local. Con el proceso de eliminación del carácter local, desaparecen las tendencias de las series muestrales de datos debidas a las variaciones temporales y espaciales de la calidad del aire. La transformación de los valores de calidad del aire en cantidades independientes del lugar de muestreo, se realiza a través de parámetros de uso del suelo y de otras variables características de la escala local. Como resultado, se obtienen unos datos de entrada espacialmente homogéneos, que es un requisito fundamental para la utilización de cualquier algoritmo de interpolación, en concreto, del kriging ordinario. Después de la interpolación, se aplica una retransformación de los datos para devolver el carácter local al mapa final. Para el desarrollo del modelo, se ha elegido como área de estudio la Comunidad de Madrid, por la disponibilidad de datos reales. Estos datos, valores de calidad del aire y variables territoriales, se utilizan en dos momentos. Un momento inicial, donde se optimiza la selección de los parámetros más adecuados para la eliminación del carácter local de las medidas y se desarrolla cada una de las etapas del modelo. Y un segundo momento, en el que se aplica en su totalidad el modelo desarrollado y se contrasta su eficacia predictiva. El modelo se aplica para la estimación de los valores medios y máximos de NO2 del territorio de estudio. Con la implementación del modelo propuesto se acomete la territorialización de los datos de calidad del aire con la reducción de tres factores clave para su efectiva integración en la planificación territorial o en el proceso de toma de decisiones asociado: incertidumbre, tiempo empleado para generar la predicción y recursos (datos y costes) asociados. El modelo permite obtener una predicción de valores del contaminante objeto de análisis en unas horas, frente a los periodos de modelización o análisis requeridos por otras metodologías. Los recursos necesarios son mínimos, únicamente contar con los datos de las estaciones de monitorización del territorio que, normalmente, están disponibles en las páginas web viii institucionales de los organismos gestores de las redes de medida de la calidad del aire. Por lo que respecta a las incertidumbres de la predicción, puede decirse que los resultados del modelo propuesto en esta tesis son estadísticamente muy correctos y que los errores medios son, en general, similares o menores que los encontrados con la aplicación de las metodologías existentes. ABSTRACT This thesis presents a new approach for mapping air quality, so that this variable of physical environment can be taken into account in physical or territorial planning. Ambient air quality is not normally considered in territorial planning mainly due to the complexity of its composition and behavior and the difficulty of counting with reliable and contrasted information. In addition, the wide spatial and temporal variability of the measurements of air quality makes his territorial consideration difficult and requires georeferenced information. This involves predicting measurements in the places of the territory where there are no data. This thesis develops a geostatistical model for predicting air quality values in a territory. The proposed model is based on the interpolation of measurements of pollutants from the monitoring stations, using ordinary kriging, after a detrending or removal of the local character of sampling values process. With the detrending process, the local character of the time series of sampling data, due to temporal and spatial variations of air quality, is removed. The transformation of the air quality values into site-independent quantities is performed using land use parameters and other characteristic parameters of local scale. This detrending of the monitoring data process results in a spatial homogeneous input set which is a prerequisite for a correct use of any interpolation algorithm, particularly, ordinary kriging. After the interpolation step, a retrending or retransformation is applied in order to incorporate the local character in the final map at places where no monitoring data is available. For the development of this model, the Community of Madrid is chosen as study area, because of the availability of actual data. These data, air quality values and local parameters, are used in two moments. A starting point, to optimize the selection of the most suitable indicators for the detrending process and to develop each one of the model stages. And a second moment, to fully implement the developed model and to evaluate its predictive power. The model is applied to estimate the average and maximum values of NO2 in the study territory. With the implementation of the proposed model, the territorialization of air quality data is undertaken with the reduction in three key factors for the effective integration of this parameter in territorial planning or in the associated decision making process: uncertainty, time taken to generate the prediction and associated resources (data and costs). This model allows the prediction of pollutant values in hours, compared to the implementation time periods required for other modeling or analysis methodologies. The required resources are also minimal, only having data from monitoring stations in the territory, that are normally available on institutional websites of the authorities responsible for air quality networks control and management. With regard to the prediction uncertainties, it can be concluded that the results of the proposed model are statistically very accurate and the mean errors are generally similar to or lower than those found with the application of existing methodologies.

Changes in the external costs of freight surface transport in Spain

This paper studies the external costs of surface freight transport in Spain and finds that a reduction occurred over the past 15 years. The analysis yields two conclusions: trucks have experienced a reduction in external costs, and rail has lower externalities. The external costs of road freight transport decrease between 1993 and 2007 (44%). The external costs of rail freight increase by 12%. During this period, the external costs of road freight related to climate increase by 16%, oppositely than those from air pollution and accidents (51 and 44%). The external costs of rail related to pollutant emissions and climate increase by 4% and 43%. Oppositely, the external costs related to accidents decrease by 27%. Road freight generates eight times the external costs of rail, 2.35 Euro cents per tonne kilometre in 2005 (5.6% accidents, 74.7% air pollution and 19.7% climate) vs. 0.28 (13.4% accidents, 53.9% air pollution and 32.7% climate).

Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

How lowering speed limits in an urban highway affects traffics performance and emissions: the case of Madrid M-30 ring-road

The city of Madrid keeps not meeting the GHG and air pollutant limits set by the European legislation. A broad range of strategies have being taken into account to reduce both types of emissions; however traffic management meas ures are usually consigned to the sidelines. In 2004, Madrid City Council launched a plan to re-design its inner ring-road supported by a socioeconomic study that evaluated the environmental and operational benefits of the project. For safety reasons the planned speed limit for the tunnel section was finally reduced from 90km/h to 70km/h. Using a Macroscopic Traffic Model and the European Air Pollutant and Emissions Inventory Guidebook (EMEP/EEA), this paper examines the environmental and traffic performance consequences of this decision. Results support the thesis that reduced speed limits leads to GHG and air pollution reductions in the area affected by the measure without substantially altering traffic performance. The implementation of the new speed limit policy brings about a 15% and 16% reduction in both CO2 and NOx emissions respectively. Emissions’ reduction during off-peak hours is larger than during peak hours.

Urban trees and atmospheric pollutants in big cities: Effects in Madrid

Una investigación sobre la mejora de la contaminación del aire (CA) por medio de arbolado urbano se realizó en Madrid, una ciudad con casi 4 M de habitantes, 2,8 M de vehículos y casi 3 M de árboles de mantenimiento público. La mayoría de los árboles estaban en dos bosques periurbanos. Los 650.000 restantes era pies de alineación y parques. Los taxones estudiados fueron Platanus orientalis (97.205 árboles), Ulmus sp. (70.557), Pinus pinea (49.038), Aesculus hippocastanum (22.266), Cedrus sp. (13.678) y Quercus ilex (1.650), de calles y parques. Muestras foliares se analizaron en diferentes épocas del año, así como datos de contaminación por PM10 de 28 estaciones de medición de la contaminación durante 30 años, y también la intensidad del tráfico (IMD) en 2.660 calles. La acumulación de metales pesados (MP) sobre hojas y dentro de estas se estimó en relación con la CA y del suelo y la IMD del tráfico. La concentración media de Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb y Zn en suelo (materia seca) alcanzó: 489,5, 0,7, 49,4, 60,9, 460,9, 12,8, 155,9 y 190,3 mg kg-1 respectivamente. Los árboles urbanos, particularmente coníferas (debido a la mayor CA en invierno) contribuyen significativamente a mejorar la CA sobre todo en calles con alta IMD. La capacidad de las seis sp. para capturar partículas de polvo en su superficies foliares está relacionada con la IMD del tráfico y se estimó en 16,8 kg/año de MP tóxicos. Pb y Zn resultaron ser buenos marcadores antrópicos en la ciudad en relación con el tráfico, que fue la principal fuente de contaminación en los árboles y suelos de Madrid. Las especies de árboles variaron en función de su capacidad para capturar partículas (dependiendo de las propiedades de sus superficies foliares) y acumular los MP absorbidos de los suelos. Las concentraciones foliares de Pb y Zn estuvieron por encima de los límites establecidos en diferentes sitios de la ciudad. La microlocalización de Zn mediante microscópico mostró la translocación al xilema y floema. Se detectaron puntos de contaminación puntual de Cu and Cr en antiguos polígonos industriales y la distribución espacial de los MP en los suelos de Madrid mostró que en incluso en zonas interiores del El Retiro había ciertos niveles elevados de [Pb] en suelo, tal vez por el emplazamiento la Real Fábrica de Porcelana en la misma zona hace 200 años. Distintas áreas del centro de la ciudad también alcanzaron niveles altos de [Pb] en suelo. Según los resultados, el empleo de una combinación de Pinus pinea con un estrato intermedio de Ulmus sp. y Cedrus sp. puede ser la mejor recomendación como filtro verde eficiente. El efecto del ozono (O3) sobre el arbolado en Madrid fue también objeto de este estudio. A pesar de la reducción de precursores aplicada en muchos países industrializados, O3 sigue siendo la principal causa de CA en el hemisferio norte, con el aumento de [O3] de fondo. Las mayores [O3] se alcanzaron en regiones mediterráneas, donde el efecto sobre la vegetación natural es compensado por el xeromorfismo y la baja conductancia estomática en respuesta los episodios de sequía estival característicos de este clima. Durante una campaña de monitoreo, se identificaron daños abióticos en hojas de encina parecidos a los de O3 que estaban plantadas en una franja de césped con riego del centro de Madrid. Dada la poca evidencia disponible de los síntomas de O3 en frondosas perennifolias, se hizo un estudio que trató de 1) confirman el diagnóstico de daño de O3, 2) investigar el grado de los síntomas en encinas y 3) analizar los factores ambientales que contribuyeron a los daños por O3, en particular en lo relacionado con el riego. Se analizaron los marcadores macro y micromorfológicos de estrés por O3, utilizando las mencionadas encinas a modo de parcela experimental. Los síntomas consistieron en punteado intercostal del haz, que aumentó con la edad. Además de un punteado subyacente, donde las células superiores del mesófilo mostraron reacciones características de daños por O3. Las células próximas a las zonas dañadas, presentaron marcadores adicionales de estrés oxidativo. Estos marcadores morfológicos y micromorfológicos de estrés por O3 fueron similares a otras frondosas caducifolias con daños por O3. Sin embargo, en nuestro caso el punteado fue evidente con AOT40 de 21 ppm•h, asociada a riego. Análisis posteriores mostraron que los árboles con riego aumentaron su conductancia estomática, con aumento de senescencia, manteniéndose sin cambios sus características xeromórficas foliares. Estos hallazgos ponen de relieve el papel primordial de la disponibilidad de agua frente a las características xeromórficas a la hora de manifestarse los síntomas en las células por daños de O3 en encina. ABSTRACT Research about air pollution mitigation by urban trees was conducted in Madrid (Spain), a southern European city with almost 4 M inhabitants, 2.8 M daily vehicles and 3 M trees under public maintenance. Most trees were located in two urban forests, while 650'000 trees along urban streets and in parks. The urban taxa included Platanus orientalis (97'205 trees), Ulmus sp. (70’557), Pinus pinea (49'038), Aesculus hippocastanum (22’266), Cedrus sp. (13'678 and Quercus ilex (1'650) along streets and parks. Leave samples were analysed sequentially in different seasons, PM10 data from 28 air monitoring stations during 30 years and traffic density estimated from 2’660 streets. Heavy metal (HM) accumulation on the leaf surface and within leaves was estimated per tree related to air and soil pollution, and traffic intensity. Mean concentration of Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in topsoil samples (dry mass) amounted in Madrid: 489.5, 0.7, 49.4, 60.9, 460.9, 12.8, 155.9 and 190.3 mg kg-1 respectively. Urban trees, particularly conifers (due to higher pollution in winter) contributed significantly to alleviate air pollution especially near to high ADT roads. The capacity of the six urban street trees species to capture air-born dust on the foliage surface as related to traffic intensity was estimated to 16.8 kg of noxious metals from exhausts per year. Pb and Zn pointed to be tracers of anthropic activity in the city with vehicle traffic as the main source of diffuse pollution on trees and soils. Tree species differed by their capacity to capture air-borne dust (by different leaf surface properties) and to allocate HM from soils. Pb and Zn concentrations in the foliage were above limits in different urban sites and microscopic Zn revelation showed translocation in xylem and phloem tissue. Punctual contamination in soils by Cu and Cr was identified in former industrial areas and spatial trace element mapping showed for central Retiro Park certain high values of [Pb] in soils even related to a Royal pottery 200 years ago. Different areas in the city centre also reached high levels [Pb] in soils. According to the results, a combination of Pinus pinea with understorey Ulmus sp. and Cedrus sp. layers can be recommended for the best air filter efficiency. The effects of ozone (O3) on trees in different areas of Madrid were also part of this study. Despite abatement programs of precursors implemented in many industrialized countries, ozone remained the main air pollutant throughout the northern hemisphere with background [O3] increasing. Some of the highest ozone concentrations were measured in regions with a Mediterranean climate but the effect on the natural vegetation is alleviated by low stomatal uptake and frequent leaf xeromorphy in response to summer drought episodes characteristic of this climate. During a bioindication survey, abiotic O3-like injury was identified in foliage. Trees were growing on an irrigated lawn strip in the centre of Madrid. Given the little structural evidence available for O3 symptoms in broadleaved evergreen species, a study was undertaken in 2007 with the following objectives 1) confirm the diagnosis, 2) investigate the extent of symptoms in holm oaks growing in Madrid and 3) analyse the environmental factors contributing to O3 injury, particularly, the site water supply. Therefore, macro- and micromorphological markers of O3 stress were analysed, using the aforementioned lawn strip as an intensive study site. Symptoms consisted of adaxial and intercostal stippling increasing with leaf age. Underlying stippling, cells in the upper mesophyll showed HR-like reactions typical of ozone stress. The surrounding cells showed further oxidative stress markers. These morphological and micromorphological markers of ozone stress were similar to those recorded in deciduous broadleaved species. However, stippling became obvious already at an AOT40 of 21 ppm•h and was primarily found at irrigated sites. Subsequent analyses showed that irrigated trees had their stomatal conductance increased and leaf life-span reduced whereas their leaf xeromorphy remained unchanged. These findings suggest a central role of water availability versus leaf xeromorphy for ozone symptom expression by cell injury in holm oak.

The environmental and economic effects of innovative measures in urban parcels delivery

The main scope of this research is to identify and evaluate solutions to redesign the parcels delivery logistic process to achieve higher level of quality, lower operational costs, energy consumptions and air pollution. The study is starting from the analysis of the delivery process managed by a leader company operating in Rome. Main delivery flows, personnel and fleet management costs, quality performances and environmental impacts are investigated. The results of this analysis are benchmarked with other European situations. On the basis of the feedback of this analysis, a set of operational measures, potentially able tackle the objectives, are identified and assessed by means of a simulative approach. The assessment is based on environmental and economic indicators allowing the comparison between new and reference scenarios from the viewpoints of the key players: operator, customer and Society. Moreover, the operational measures are combined into alternative packages by looking for the sets capable to maximize the benefits for the key players. The methodology, tested on Rome case study, is general and flexible enough to be extended to parcels delivery problem in different urban contexts, as well as to similar urban distribution problems (e.g. press, food, security, school)

Planning and Management of Mobility in Natural Protected Areas

The paper describes some relevant results of an on-going research aiming to elaborate a methodology to help the mobility management in natural parks, compatible with their protection missions: it has been developed a procedure to reproduce the mobility-environment relationships in various operational conditions. The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The work is articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (air pollution and noise only); 6) identification of mitigation measures to be potentially applied. The whole methodology has been tested and validated on Italian case studies: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model the flows have been distributed and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions was calculated, the criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios, including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between projects and reference scenario allowed the quantification of effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Planning and management of mobility in natural protected areas

The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The preliminary work was articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (limited to air pollution and noise); 6) identification of mitigation measures to the potentially applied. The whole methodology has been firstly tested on the case study of the National Park of ?Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga? and further validated on the National Park of ?Gargano?, both located Italy: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been synthetically represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model it has been determined the distribution of flows and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions. On this basis the environmental criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between the projects and the reference scenario allowed the quantification of the effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the “with measures” scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance. Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

Synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation - a cross-national multifactor analysis

Peer reviewed

Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: An opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission controls?

The effect of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze from air pollution on the yields of rice and winter wheat grown in China is assessed. The assessment is based on estimates of aerosol optical depths over China, the effect of these optical depths on the solar irradiance reaching the earth’s surface, and the response of rice and winter wheat grown in Nanjing to the change in solar irradiance. Two sets of aerosol optical depths are presented: one based on a coupled, regional climate/air quality model simulation and the other inferred from solar radiation measurements made over a 12-year period at meteorological stations in China. The model-estimated optical depths are significantly smaller than those derived from observations, perhaps because of errors in one or both sets of optical depths or because the data from the meteorological stations has been affected by local pollution. Radiative transfer calculations using the smaller, model-estimated aerosol optical depths indicate that the so-called “direct effect” of regional haze results in an ≈5–30% reduction in the solar irradiance reaching some of China’s most productive agricultural regions. Crop-response model simulations suggest an ≈1:1 relationship between a percentage increase (decrease) in total surface solar irradiance and a percentage increase (decrease) in the yields of rice and wheat. Collectively, these calculations suggest that regional haze in China is currently depressing optimal yields of ≈70% of the crops grown in China by at least 5–30%. Reducing the severity of regional haze in China through air pollution control could potentially result in a significant increase in crop yields and help the nation meet its growing food demands in the coming decades.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Desert dust suppressing precipitation: A possible desertification feedback loop

The effect of desert dust on cloud properties and precipitation has so far been studied solely by using theoretical models, which predict that rainfall would be enhanced. Here we present observations showing the contrary; the effect of dust on cloud properties is to inhibit precipitation. Using satellite and aircraft observations we show that clouds forming within desert dust contain small droplets and produce little precipitation by drop coalescence. Measurement of the size distribution and the chemical analysis of individual Saharan dust particles collected in such a dust storm suggest a possible mechanism for the diminished rainfall. The detrimental impact of dust on rainfall is smaller than that caused by smoke from biomass burning or anthropogenic air pollution, but the large abundance of desert dust in the atmosphere renders it important. The reduction of precipitation from clouds affected by desert dust can cause drier soil, which in turn raises more dust, thus providing a possible feedback loop to further decrease precipitation. Furthermore, anthropogenic changes of land use exposing the topsoil can initiate such a desertification feedback process.

Equilibration of the terrestrial water, nitrogen, and carbon cycles

Recent advances in biologically based ecosystem models of the coupled terrestrial, hydrological, carbon, and nutrient cycles have provided new perspectives on the terrestrial biosphere’s behavior globally, over a range of time scales. We used the terrestrial ecosystem model Century to examine relationships between carbon, nitrogen, and water dynamics. The model, run to a quasi-steady-state, shows strong correlations between carbon, water, and nitrogen fluxes that lead to equilibration of water/energy and nitrogen limitation of net primary productivity. This occurs because as the water flux increases, the potentials for carbon uptake (photosynthesis), and inputs and losses of nitrogen, all increase. As the flux of carbon increases, the amount of nitrogen that can be captured into organic matter and then recycled also increases. Because most plant-available nitrogen is derived from internal recycling, this latter process is critical to sustaining high productivity in environments where water and energy are plentiful. At steady-state, water/energy and nitrogen limitation “equilibrate,” but because the water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles have different response times, inclusion of nitrogen cycling into ecosystem models adds behavior at longer time scales than in purely biophysical models. The tight correlations among nitrogen fluxes with evapotranspiration implies that either climate change or changes to nitrogen inputs (from fertilization or air pollution) will have large and long-lived effects on both productivity and nitrogen losses through hydrological and trace gas pathways. Comprehensive analyses of the role of ecosystems in the carbon cycle must consider mechanisms that arise from the interaction of the hydrological, carbon, and nutrient cycles in ecosystems.