Galactic cosmic ray modulation near the heliospheric current sheet

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) both over decadal time scales (due to long-term, global HMF variations), and over time scales of a few hours (associated with solar wind structures such as coronal mass ejections or the heliospheric current sheet, HCS). Due to the close association between the HCS, the streamer belt, and the band of slow solar wind, HCS crossings are often associated with corotating interaction regions where fast solar wind catches up and compresses slow solar wind ahead of it. However, not all HCS crossings are associated with strong compressions. In this study we categorize HCS crossings in two ways: Firstly, using the change in magnetic polarity, as either away-to-toward (AT) or toward-to-away (TA) magnetic field directions relative to the Sun and, secondly, using the strength of the associated solar wind compression, determined from the observed plasma density enhancement. For each category, we use superposed epoch analyses to show differences in both solar wind parameters and GCR flux inferred from neutron monitors. For strong-compression HCS crossings, we observe a peak in neutron counts preceding the HCS crossing, followed by a large drop after the crossing, attributable to the so-called ‘snow-plough’ effect. For weak-compression HCS crossings, where magnetic field polarity effects are more readily observable, we instead observe that the neutron counts have a tendency to peak in the away magnetic field sector. By splitting the data by the dominant polarity at each solar polar region, we find that the increase in GCR flux prior to the HCS crossing is primarily from strong compressions in cycles with negative north polar fields due to GCR drift effects. Finally, we report on unexpected differences in GCR behavior between TA weak compressions during opposing polarity cycles.

Towards the computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on the geometric and network connectivity of structural MRI data

We present an intuitive geometric approach for analysing the structure and fragility of T1-weighted structural MRI scans of human brains. Apart from computing characteristics like the surface area and volume of regions of the brain that consist of highly active voxels, we also employ Network Theory in order to test how close these regions are to breaking apart. This analysis is used in an attempt to automatically classify subjects into three categories: Alzheimer’s disease, mild cognitive impairment and healthy controls, for the CADDementia Challenge.

Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance--elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet

We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77� N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four “SMB lapse rates”, gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kgm−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kgm−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kgm−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kgm−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014).

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

Energetic electron signatures in an active magnetotail plasma sheet

Particles with energies of tens to hundreds of keV provide a powerful diagnostic of the acceleration processes that characterise the Earth’s magnetosphere, in particular the highly dynamic nightside plasma sheet. Such energetic particles can be detected by the RAPID experiment, onboard the quartet of Cluster spacecraft. We present results from the study of a series of quasi-periodic, intense energetic electron signatures in the magnetotail revealed by RAPID Imaging Electron Spectrometer (IES) observations some 19 Earth radii (RE) downtail, associated with the passage of a highly geoeffective, high-speed solar wind stream. The RAPID-IES signatures – interpreted in combination with magnetic field and lower-energy electron measurements from the FGM and PEACE experiments on Cluster, respectively, and with reference to energetic electron observations from the CEPPAD-IES instrument on Polar – are understood in terms of repeated encounters of the Cluster spacecraft with the tail plasma sheet in response to the resultant tail reconfiguration in each of a series of substorms. We consider the Cluster response for two of these substorms (identified according to the conventional expansion phase onset indicators of particle injection at geosynchronous orbit and Pi2 pulsations at Earth) in terms of two possible tail configurations in which a Near-Earth Neutral Line forms either antisunward or sunward of the Cluster spacecraft. The latter scenario, in which the reconnection X-line is assumed to form sunward of Cluster and subsequently migrate downtail such that the spacecraft become engulfed in a tailward expanding plasma sheet, is shown to be more consistent with the observations.

Increases in plasma sheet temperature with solar wind driving during substorm growth phases

During the substorm growth phase, magnetic reconnection extracts ~10^15 J from the solar wind through magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause, which is then stored in the magnetotail lobes. Plasma sheet pressure then increases to balance magnetic flux density increases in the lobes. We examine plasma sheet pressure, density and temperature during substorm growth phases using nine years of Cluster data (>316,000 data points). We show that plasma sheet pressure and temperature are higher during growth phases with higher solar wind driving whereas the density is approximately constant. We also show a weak correlation between plasma sheet temperature before onset and the minimum SuperMAG SML auroral index in the subsequent substorm. We discuss how energization of the plasma sheet before onset may result from thermodynamically adiabatic processes; how hotter plasma sheets may result in magnetotail instabilities and how this relates to the onset and size of the subsequent substorm expansion phase.

Standardized evaluation of algorithms for computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on structural MRI: The CADDementia challenge

Algorithms for computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on structural MRI have demonstrated high performance in the literature, but are difficult to compare as different data sets and methodology were used for evaluation. In addition, it is unclear how the algorithms would perform on previously unseen data, and thus, how they would perform in clinical practice when there is no real opportunity to adapt the algorithm to the data at hand. To address these comparability, generalizability and clinical applicability issues, we organized a grand challenge that aimed to objectively compare algorithms based on a clinically representative multi-center data set. Using clinical practice as the starting point, the goal was to reproduce the clinical diagnosis. Therefore, we evaluated algorithms for multi-class classification of three diagnostic groups: patients with probable Alzheimer's disease, patients with mild cognitive impairment and healthy controls. The diagnosis based on clinical criteria was used as reference standard, as it was the best available reference despite its known limitations. For evaluation, a previously unseen test set was used consisting of 354 T1-weighted MRI scans with the diagnoses blinded. Fifteen research teams participated with a total of 29 algorithms. The algorithms were trained on a small training set (n = 30) and optionally on data from other sources (e.g., the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, the Australian Imaging Biomarkers and Lifestyle flagship study of aging). The best performing algorithm yielded an accuracy of 63.0% and an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) of 78.8%. In general, the best performances were achieved using feature extraction based on voxel-based morphometry or a combination of features that included volume, cortical thickness, shape and intensity. The challenge is open for new submissions via the web-based framework: http://caddementia.grand-challenge.org.

Ice-sheet configuration in the CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Glacial Maximum experiments

We describe the creation of a data set describing changes related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and elevation of ice-free land at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which were used in LGM experiments conducted as part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the third phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The CMIP5/PMIP3 data sets were created from reconstructions made by three different groups, which were all obtained using a model-inversion approach but differ in the assumptions used in the modelling and in the type of data used as constraints. The ice-sheet extent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) does not vary substantially between the three individual data sources. The difference in the topography of the NH ice sheets is also moderate, and smaller than the differences between these reconstructions (and the resultant composite reconstruction) and ice-sheet reconstructions used in previous generations of PMIP. Only two of the individual reconstructions provide information for Antarctica. The discrepancy between these two reconstructions is larger than the difference for the NH ice sheets, although still less than the difference between the composite reconstruction and previous PMIP ice-sheet reconstructions. Although largely confined to the ice-covered regions, differences between the climate response to the individual LGM reconstructions extend over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northern Hemisphere continents, partly through atmospheric stationary waves. Differences between the climate response to the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and any individual ice-sheet reconstruction are smaller than those between the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and the ice sheet used in the last phase of PMIP (PMIP2).

Lightning as a space-weather hazard: UK thunderstorm activity modulated by the passage of the heliospheric current sheet

Lightning flash rates, RL, are modulated by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and the polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in near-Earth space. As the HMF polarity reverses at the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), typically within a CIR, these phenomena are likely related. In this study, RL is found to be significantly enhanced at the HCS and at 27 days prior/after. The strength of the enhancement depends on the polarity of the HMF reversal at the HCS. Near-Earth solar and galactic energetic particle fluxes are also ordered by HMF polarity, though the variations qualitatively differ from RL, with the main increase occurring prior to the HCS crossing. Thus, the CIR effect on lightning is either the result of compression/amplification of the HMF (and its subsequent interaction with the terrestrial system) or that energetic particle preconditioning of the Earth system prior to the HMF polarity change is central to solar wind lightning coupling mechanism.

Metal location and thickness in a multilayered sheet by measuring K alpha/K beta, L alpha/L beta and L alpha/L gamma X-ray ratios

When a multilayered material is analyzed by means of energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis, then the X-ray ratios of K alpha/K beta, or L alpha/L beta and L alpha/L gamma, for an element in the multilayered material, depend on the composition and thickness of the layer in which the element is situated, and on the composition and thickness of the superimposed layer (or layers). Multilayered samples are common in archaeometry, for example, in the case of pigment layers in paintings, or in the case of gilded or silvered alloys. The latter situation is examined in detail in the present paper, with a specific reference to pre-Columbian alloys from various museums in the north of Peru. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Single Mutation at the Sheet Switch Region Results in Conformational Changes Favoring lambda 6 Light-Chain Fibrillogenesis

Systemic amyloid light-chain (LC) amyloidosis is a disease process characterized by the pathological deposition of monoclonal LCs in tissue. All LC subtypes are capable of fibril formation although lambda chains, particularly those belonging to the lambda 6 type, are overrepresented. Here, we report the thermodynamic and in vitro fibrillogenic properties of several mutants of the lambda 6 protein 6aJL2 in which Pro7 and/or His8 was substituted by Ser or Pro. The H8P and H8S mutants were almost as stable as the wildtype protein and were poorly fibrillogenic. In contrast, the P7S mutation decreased the thermodynamic stability of 6aJL2 and greatly enhanced its capacity to form amyloid-like fibrils in vitro. The crystal structure of the P7S mutant showed that the substitution induced both local and long-distance effects, such as the rearrangement of the V(L) (variable region of the light chain)-V(L) interface. This mutant crystallized in two orthorhombic polymorphs, P2(1)2(1)2(1) and C222(1). In the latter, a monomer that was not arranged in the typical Bence-Jones dimer was observed for the first time. Crystal-packing analysis of the C222(1) lattice showed the establishment of intermolecular beta-beta interactions that involved the N-terminus and beta-strand B and that these could be relevant in the mechanism of LC fibril formation. Our results strongly suggest that Pro7 is a key residue in the conformation of the N-terminal sheet switch motif and, through long-distance interactions, is also critically involved in the contacts that stabilized the V(L) interface in lambda 6 LCs. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer-aided Structure Elucidation of Neolignans

This paper describes a new module of the expert system SISTEMAT used for the prediction of the skeletons of neolignans by (13)C NMR, (1)H NMR and botanical data obtained from the literature. SISTEMAT is composed of MACRONO, SISCONST, C13MACH, H1MACH and SISOCBOT programs, each analyzing data of the neolignan in question to predict the carbon skeleton of the compound. From these results, the global probability is computed and the most probable skeleton predicted. SISTEMAT predicted the skeletons of 75% of the 20 neolignans tested, in a rapid and simple procedure demonstrating its advantage for the structural elucidation of new compounds.