Penciclovir solubility in Eudragit films: a comparison of X-ray, thermal, microscopic and release rate techniques

The solubility of penciclovir (C10N5O3H17) in a novel film formulation designed for the treatment of cold sores was determined using X-ray, thermal, microscopic and release rate techniques. Solubilities of 0.15–0.23, 0.44, 0.53 and 0.42% (w/w) resulted for each procedure. Linear calibration lines were achieved for experimentally and theoretically determined differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and X-ray powder diffractometry (XRPD) data. Intra- and inter-batch data precision values were determined; intra values were more precise. Microscopy was additionally useful for examining crystal shape, size distribution and homogeneity of drug distribution within the film. Whereas DSC also determined melting point, XRPD identified polymorphs and release data provided relevant kinetics.

The influence of Langmuir turbulence on the scaling for the dissipation rate in the oceanic boundary layer

A model for estimating the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate in the oceanic boundary layer, based on insights from rapid-distortion theory, is presented and tested. This model provides a possible explanation for the very high dissipation levels found by numerous authors near the surface. It is conceived that turbulence, injected into the water by breaking waves, is subsequently amplified due to its distortion by the mean shear of the wind-induced current and straining by the Stokes drift of surface waves. The partition of the turbulent shear stress into a shear-induced part and a wave-induced part is taken into account. In this picture, dissipation enhancement results from the same mechanism responsible for Langmuir circulations. Apart from a dimensionless depth and an eddy turn-over time, the dimensionless dissipation rate depends on the wave slope and wave age, which may be encapsulated in the turbulent Langmuir number La_t. For large La_t, or any Lat but large depth, the dissipation rate tends to the usual surface layer scaling, whereas when Lat is small, it is strongly enhanced near the surface, growing asymptotically as ɛ ∝ La_t^{-2} when La_t → 0. Results from this model are compared with observations from the WAVES and SWADE data sets, assuming that this is the dominant dissipation mechanism acting in the ocean surface layer and statistical measures of the corresponding fit indicate a substantial improvement over previous theoretical models. Comparisons are also carried out against more recent measurements, showing good order-of-magnitude agreement, even when shallow-water effects are important.

CO intake fraction and city ventilation rate in Hong Kong

Given the background of serious urban pollution in Hong Kong, the intake fraction (iF) of carbon monoxide due to mobile vehicles in urban area of Hong Kong is investigated and estimated to be 600 per million, much higher than those in US urban areas, Helsinki and even Beijing, indicating the high exposure level to urban pollutants in Hong Kong. The dependence of iF to the metrological factors is also discussed. Easterly and northerly winds contribute most to the total iF value. A new method of predicting ventilation rate for a city based on iF concept is proposed. City ventilation rates for different cities are calculated and compared. It is found that Hong Kong has to face the fact that it has the lowest ventilation rate and ACH.

Unusual isotope effect in the reaction of chlorosilylene with trimethylsilane-1-d: Absolute rate studies and quantum chemical and Rice–Ramsperger–Kassel–Marcus calculations provide strong evidence for the involvement of an intermediate complex

Time-resolved studies of chlorosilylene, ClSiH, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of 1-chloro-1- silacyclopent-3-ene, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with trimethylsilane-1-d, Me3SiD, in the gas phase. The reaction was studied at total pressures up to 100 Torr (with and without added SF6) over the temperature range of 295−407 K. The rate constants were found to be pressure independent and gave the following Arrhenius equation: log[(k/(cm3 molecule−1 s−1)] = (−13.22 ± 0.15) + [(13.20 ± 1.00) kJ mol−1]/(RT ln 10). When compared with previously published kinetic data for the reaction of ClSiH with Me3SiH, kinetic isotope effects, kD/kH, in the range from 7.4 (297 K) to 6.4 (407 K) were obtained. These far exceed values of 0.4−0.5 estimated for a single-step insertion process. Quantum chemical calculations (G3MP2B3 level) confirm not only the involvement of an intermediate complex, but also the existence of a low-energy internal isomerization pathway which can scramble the D and H atom labels. By means of Rice−Ramsperger−Kassel−Marcus modeling and a necessary (but small) refinement of the energy surface, we have shown that this mechanism can reproduce closely the experimental isotope effects. These findings provide the first experimental evidence for the isomerization pathway and thereby offer the most concrete evidence to date for the existence of intermediate complexes in the insertion reactions of silylenes.

The maximum rate of mammal evolution

How fast can a mammal evolve from the size of a mouse to the size of an elephant? Achieving such a large transformation calls for major biological reorganization. Thus, the speed at which this occurs has important implications for extensive faunal changes, including adaptive radiations and recovery from mass extinctions. To quantify the pace of large-scale evolution we developed a metric, clade maximum rate, which represents the maximum evolutionary rate of a trait within a clade. We applied this metric to body mass evolution in mammals over the last 70 million years, during which multiple large evolutionary transitions occurred in oceans and on continents and islands. Our computations suggest that it took a minimum of 1.6, 5.1, and 10 million generations for terrestrial mammal mass to increase 100-, and 1,000-, and 5,000- fold, respectively. Values for whales were down to half the length (i.e., 1.1, 3, and 5 million generations), perhaps due to the reduced mechanical constraints of living in an aquatic environment. When differences in generation time are considered, we find an exponential increase in maximum mammal body mass during the 35 million years following the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event. Our results also indicate a basic asymmetry in macroevolution: very large decreases (such as extreme insular dwarfism) can happen at more than 10 times the rate of increases. Our findings allow more rigorous comparisons of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary patterns and processes. Keywords: haldanes, biological time, scaling, pedomorphosis

Growth rate and vertical propagation of the initial error in baroclinic models

The present study investigates the growth of error in baroclinic waves. It is found that stable or neutral waves are particularly sensitive to errors in the initial condition. Short stable waves are mainly sensitive to phase errors and the ultra long waves to amplitude errors. Analysis simulation experiments have indicated that the amplitudes of the very long waves become usually too small in the free atmosphere, due to the sparse and very irregular distribution of upper air observations. This also applies to the four-dimensional data assimilation experiments, since the amplitudes of the very long waves are usually underpredicted. The numerical experiments reported here show that if the very long waves have these kinds of amplitude errors in the upper troposphere or lower stratosphere the error is rapidly propagated (within a day or two) to the surface and to the lower troposphere.

Measuring large topographic change with InSAR: lava thicknesses, extrusion rate and subsidence rate at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala

Lava flows can produce changes in topography on the order of 10s-100s of metres. A knowledge of the resulting volume change provides evidence about the dynamics of an eruption. We present a method to measure topographic changes from the differential InSAR phase delays caused by the height differences between the current topography and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). This does not require a pre-event SAR image, so it does not rely on interferometric phase remaining coherent during eruption and emplacement. Synthetic tests predicts that we can estimate lava thickness of as little as �9 m, given a minimum of 5 interferograms with suitably large orbital baseine separations. In the case of continuous motion, such as lava flow subsidence, we invert interferometric phase simultaneously for topographic change and displacement. We demonstrate the method using data from Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala, and measure increases in lava thickness of up to 140 m between 2000 and 2009, largely associated with activity between 2000 and 2005. We find a mean extrusion rate of 0.43 +/- 0.06 m3/s, which lies within the error bounds of the longer term extrusion rate between 1922-2000. The thickest and youngest parts of the flow deposit were shown to be subsiding at an average rate of �-6 cm/yr. This is the first time that flow thickness and subsidence have been measured simultaneously. We expect this method to be suitable for measurment of landslides and other mass flow deposits as well as lava flows.

A rate and state friction law for saline ice

Sea ice friction models are necessary to predict the nature of interactions between sea ice floes. These interactions are of interest on a range of scales, for example, to predict loads on engineering structures in icy waters or to understand the basin-scale motion of sea ice. Many models use Amonton's friction law due to its simplicity. More advanced models allow for hydrodynamic lubrication and refreezing of asperities; however, modeling these processes leads to greatly increased complexity. In this paper we propose, by analogy with rock physics, that a rate- and state-dependent friction law allows us to incorporate memory (and thus the effects of lubrication and bonding) into ice friction models without a great increase in complexity. We support this proposal with experimental data on both the laboratory (∼0.1 m) and ice tank (∼1 m) scale. These experiments show that the effects of static contact under normal load can be incorporated into a friction model. We find the parameters for a first-order rate and state model to be A = 0.310, B = 0.382, and μ0 = 0.872. Such a model then allows us to make predictions about the nature of memory effects in moving ice-ice contacts.

Grouping of 24 apple cultivars on the basis of starch degradation rate and their fruit pattern

The ripening processes of 24 apple cultivars were examined in the United Kingdom National Fruit Collection in 2010. Basically the starch content, and additionally ground colour, water-soluble solids content and flesh firmness were studied during ripening. The degradation of the starch content was evaluated using a 0–10 scale. A starch degradation value of 50% was taken to be the optimum harvest date, with harvest beginning at a value of 40% and finishing at 60%. Depending on the cultivar, this represented a harvest window of 9 to 21 days. Later ripening cultivars matured more slowly, leading to a longer harvesting period, with the exception of cv. Feuillemorte. Pronounced differences were observed among the cultivars on the basis of the starch degradation pattern, allowing them to be divided into four groups. Separate charts were elaborated for each group that are recommended for use in practice.

Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate and evaluate quantile forecasts of the daily exchange rate returns of five currencies. The forecasting models that have been used in recent analyses of the predictability of daily realized volatility permit a comparison of the predictive power of different measures of intraday variation and intraday returns in forecasting exchange rate variability. The methods of computing quantile forecasts include making distributional assumptions for future daily returns as well as using the empirical distribution of predicted standardized returns with both rolling and recursive samples. Our main findings are that the Heterogenous Autoregressive model provides more accurate volatility and quantile forecasts for currencies which experience shifts in volatility, such as the Canadian dollar, and that the use of the empirical distribution to calculate quantiles can improve forecasts when there are shifts

What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

A Double-threshold GARCH Model for the French Franc/Deutschmark exchange rate

This paper combines and generalizes a number of recent time series models of daily exchange rate series by using a SETAR model which also allows the variance equation of a GARCH specification for the error terms to be drawn from more than one regime. An application of the model to the French Franc/Deutschmark exchange rate demonstrates that out-of-sample forecasts for the exchange rate volatility are also improved when the restriction that the data it is drawn from a single regime is removed. This result highlights the importance of considering both types of regime shift (i.e. thresholds in variance as well as in mean) when analysing financial time series.