How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

An historical analysis of the development of thinking in the principal writings of Malcolm Knowles

Malcolm Shepherd Knowles was a key writer and theorist in the field of adult education in the United States. He died in 1997 and left a large legacy of books and journal articles. This thesis traced the development of his thinking over the 46-year period from 1950 to 1995. It examined the 25 works authored, co-authored, edited, reissued and revised by him during that period. The writings were scrutinised using a literature research methodology to expose the theoretical content, and a history of thought lens to identify and account for the development of major ideas. The methodology enabled a gradual unfolding of the history. A broadly-consistent and sequential pattern of thought focusing on the notion of andragogy emerged. The study revealed that after the initial phases of exploratory thinking, Knowles developed a practical-theoretical framework he believed could function as a comprehensive theory of adult learning. As his thinking progressed, his theory developed into a unified framework for human resource development and, later, into a model for the development of self-directed lifelong learners. The study traced the development of Knowles’ thinking through the phases of thought, identified the writings that belonged within each phase and produced a series of diagrammatic representations showing the evolution of his conceptual framework. The production of a history of the development of Knowles’ thought is the major outcome of the study. In addition to plotting the narrative sequence of thought-events, the history helps to explicate the factors and conditions that influenced Knowles’ thinking and to show the interrelationships between ideas. The study should help practitioners in their use and appreciation of Knowles’ works.

Relative income, happiness, and utility : an explanation for the Easterlin paradox and other puzzles

The well-known Easterlin paradox points out that average happiness has remained constant over time despite sharp rises in GNP per head. At the same time, a micro literature has typically found positive correlations between individual income and individual measures of subjective well-being. This paper suggests that these two findings are consistent with the presence of relative income terms in the utility function. Income may be evaluated relative to others (social comparison) or to oneself in the past (habituation). We review the evidence on relative income from the subjective well-being literature. We also discuss the relation (or not) between happiness and utility, and discuss some nonhappiness research (behavioral, experimental, neurological) related to income comparisons. We last consider how relative income in the utility function can affect economic models of behavior in the domains of consumption, investment, economic growth, savings, taxation, labor supply, wages, and migration.

Higher accumulation of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in infants than in adults

Pooled serum samples collected from 8132 residents in 2002/03 and 2004/05 were analyzed to assess human polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) concentrations from specified strata of the Australian population. The strata were defined by age (0−4 years, 5−15 years, < 16 years, 16−30 years, 31−45 years, 46−60 years, and >60 years); region; and gender. For both time periods, infants and older children had substantially higher PBDE concentrations than adults. For samples collected in 2004/05, the mean ± standard deviation ΣPBDE (sum of the homologue groups for the mono-, di-, tri-, tetra-, penta-, hexa-, hepta-, octa-, nona-, and deca-BDEs) concentrations for 0−4 and 5−15 years were 73 ± 7 and 29 ± 7 ng g−1 lipid, respectively, while for all adults >16 years, the mean concentration was lower at 18 ± 5 ng g−1 lipid. A similar trend was observed for the samples collected in 2002/03, with the mean ΣPBDE concentration for children <16 years being 28 ± 8 ng g−1 lipid and for the adults >16 years, 15 ± 5 ng g−1 lipid. No regional or gender specific differences were observed. Measured data were compared with a model that we developed to incorporate the primary known exposure pathways (food, air, dust, breast milk) and clearance (half-life) data. The model was used to predict PBDE concentration trends and indicated that the elevated concentrations in infants were primarily due to maternal transfer and breast milk consumption with inhalation and ingestion of dust making a comparatively lower contribution.

Polyfluoroalkyl chemicals in pooled blood serum from infants, children and adults in Australia

Polyfluoroalkyl chemicals (PFCs) have been used worldwide for more than 50 years in a wide variety of industrial and consumer products. Limited data exist on human exposure to PFCs in the Southern Hemisphere. Human blood serum collected in southeast Queensland, Australia, in 2006−2007 from 2420 donors was pooled according to age (cord blood, 0−0.5, 0.6−1, 1.1−1.5, 1.6−2, 2.1−2.5, 2.6−3, 3.1−3.5, 3.6−4, 4.1−6, 6.1−9, 9.1−12, 12.1−15, 16−30, 31−45, 46−60, and >60 years) and gender and was analyzed for eight PFCs. Across all pools, perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was detected at the highest mean concentration (15.2 ng/mL) followed by perfluorooctanoate (PFOA, 6.4 ng/mL), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS, 3.1 ng/mL), perfluorononanoate (PFNA, 0.8 ng/mL), 2-(N-methyl-perfluorooctance sulfonamide) acetate (Me-PFOSA-AcOH, 0.66 ng/mL), and perfluorodecanoate (PFDeA, 0.29 ng/mL). Perfluorooctane sulfonamide was detected in only 24% of the pools, and 2-(N-ethylperfluorooctane sulfonamide) acetate was detected in only one. PFOS concentrations were significantly higher in pools from adult males than from adult females (p = 0.002); no gender differences were apparent in the pools from children (<12 years old). The highest mean concentrations of PFOA, PFHxS, PFNA, PFDeA, and Me-PFOSA-AcOH were found in children <15 years, while PFOS was highest in adults >60 years. Investigation into the sources and exposure pathways in Australia, in particular for children, is necessary as well as continued biomonitoring to determine the potential effects on human concentrations as a result of changes in the PFC manufacturing practices, including the cessation of production of several PFCs.

Mobility and safety are conflicting goals for transport policy makers when making decisions about graduated driver licensing

Policy decisions are frequently influenced by more than research results alone. This review examines one road safety countermeasure, graduated driver licensing, in three jurisdictions and identifies how the conflict between mobility and safety goals can influence policy decisions relating to this countermeasure. Evaluations from around the world of graduated driver licensing have demonstrated clear reductions in crashes for young drivers. However, the introduction of this countermeasure may be affected, both positively and negatively, by the conflict some policy makers experience between ensuring individuals remain both mobile and safe as drivers. This review highlights how this conflict in policy decision making can serve to either facilitate or hinder the introduction of graduated driver licensing systems. However, policy makers whose focus on mobility is too strong when compared with safety may be mistaken, with evidence suggesting that after a graduated driver licensing system is introduced young drivers adapt their behaviour to the new system and remain mobile. As a result, policy makers should consciously acknowledge the conflict between mobility and safety and consider an appropriate balance in order to introduce these systems. Improvements to the licensing system can then be made in an incremental manner as the balance between these two priorities change. Policy makers can achieve an appropriate balance by using empirical evidence as a basis for their decisions.

Submission to Travelsafe : vehicle impoundment for drink drivers

This submission has been prepared in response to the Parliamentary Travelsafe Committee's Inquiry into vehicle impoundment for drink drivers to address research relevant to the committee’s investigation into whether: • Drink drivers in Queensland continue to drive illegally after being apprehended by police or disqualified from driving by the courts; • The incidence of repeat drink driving undermines the effectiveness of existing penalties for drink driving offences; and • Vehicle impoundment and/or ignition key confiscation are cost-effective deterrents that will reduce drink driving recidivism, relating to other existing or potential methods of managing offenders.

Raman spectroscopic study of the antimonate mineral lewisite (Ca,Fe,Na)2(Sb,Ti)2O6(O,OH)7

The mineral lewisite, (Ca,Fe,Na)2(Sb,Ti)2O6(O,OH)7 an antimony bearing mineral has been studied by Raman spectroscopy. A comparison is made with the Raman spectra of other minerals including bindheimite, stibiconite and roméite. The mineral lewisite is characterised by an intense sharp band at 517 cm-1 with a shoulder at 507 cm-1 assigned to SbO stretching modes. Raman bands of medium intensity for lewisite are observed at 300, 356 and 400 cm-1. These bands are attributed to OSbO bending vibrations. Raman bands in the OH stretching region are observed at 3200, 3328, 3471 cm-1 with a distinct shoulder at 3542 cm-1. The latter is assigned to the stretching vibration of OH units. The first three bands are attributed to water stretching vibrations. The observation of bands in the 3200 to 3500 cm-1 region suggests that water is involved in the lewisite structure. If this is the case then the formula may be better written as Ca, Fe2+, Na)2(Sb, Ti)2(O,OH)7 •xH2O.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Estimating interactive coefficients for analysing interactive failures

Engineering assets are often complex systems. In a complex system, components often have failure interactions which lead to interactive failures. A system with interactive failures may lead to an increased failure probability. Hence, one may have to take the interactive failures into account when designing and maintaining complex engineering systems. To address this issue, Sun et al have developed an analytical model for the interactive failures. In this model, the degree of interaction between two components is represented by interactive coefficients. To use this model for failure analysis, the related interactive coefficients must be estimated. However, methods for estimating the interactive coefficients have not been reported. To fill this gap, this paper presents five methods to estimate the interactive coefficients including probabilistic method; failure data based analysis method; laboratory experimental method; failure interaction mechanism based method; and expert estimation method. Examples are given to demonstrate the applications of the proposed methods. Comparisons among these methods are also presented.