Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Briefing paper on eTextbooks and third party eLearning products and their implications for Australian university libraries

The briefing paper was commissioned by the Council of Australian University Librarians (CAUL) to examine the current picture and evolving role of electronic textbooks (eTextbooks) and third party eLearning products in the academic arena. The study reviews industry trends, identifies the major players and considers the different stakeholder perspectives of eTextbook adoption. Within the context of learning and teaching in the digital age, specific areas of research, policy and practice are highlighted to consider the implications that eTextbooks might have for universities in general and for university libraries in particular. An environmental scan focused on the analysis of current developments and the anticipated future directions of digital learning resources in Australia, as well as in other major English speaking countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States. This research guided the development of key interview questions aimed at examining, at a deeper level, diverse stakeholder perspectives about the roles university libraries can play in the adoption of digital learning content.

Factors affecting technical efficiency of rice farmers in village reservoir irrigation systems of Sri Lanka

Given the importance of water for rice production, this study examines the factors affecting the technical efficiency (TE) of irrigated rice farmers in village irrigation systems (VIS) in Sri Lanka. Primary data were collected from 460 rice farmers in the Kurunagala District, Sri Lanka, to estimate a stochastic translog production frontier for rice production. The mean TE of rice farming in village irrigation was found to be 0.72, although 63% of rice farmers exceeded this average. The most influential factors of TE are membership of Farmer Organisations (FOs) and the participatory rate in collective actions organised by FOs. The results suggest that enhancement of co-operative arrangements of farmers by strengthening the membership of FOs is considered important for increasing TE in rice farming in VIS.

Collective dynamics and control of a 3-D small-world network with time delays

The paper presents a detailed analysis on the collective dynamics and delayed state feedback control of a three-dimensional delayed small-world network. The trivial equilibrium of the model is first investigated, showing that the uncontrolled model exhibits complicated unbounded behavior. Then three control strategies, namely a position feedback control, a velocity feedback control, and a hybrid control combined velocity with acceleration feedback, are then introduced to stabilize this unstable system. It is shown in these three control schemes that only the hybrid control can easily stabilize the 3-D network system. And with properly chosen delay and gain in the delayed feedback path, the hybrid controlled model may have stable equilibrium, or periodic solutions resulting from the Hopf bifurcation, or complex stranger attractor from the period-doubling bifurcation. Moreover, the direction of Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcation periodic solutions are analyzed. The results are further extended to any "d" dimensional network. It shows that to stabilize a "d" dimensional delayed small-world network, at least a "d – 1" order completed differential feedback is needed. This work provides a constructive suggestion for the high dimensional delayed systems.

Suitable stiffening systems for LiteSteel beams with web openings subjected to shear

Abstract: LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel hollow flange channel section produced using a simultaneous cold-forming and dual electric resistance welding process. It is commonly used as floor joists and bearers with web openings in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. Their shear strengths are considerably reduced when web openings are included for the purpose of locating building services. A cost effective method of eliminating the detrimental effects of a large web opening is to attach suitable stiffeners around the web openings of LSBs. Experimental and numerical studies were undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LSBs with circular web openings reinforced using plate, stud, transverse and sleeve stiffeners with varying sizes and thicknesses. Both welding and varying screw-fastening arrangements were used to attach these stiffeners to the web of LSBs. Finite element models of LSBs with stiffened web openings in shear were developed to simulate their shear behaviour and strength of LSBs. They were then validated by comparing the results with experimental test results and used in a detailed parametric study. These studies have shown that plate stiffeners were the most suitable, however, their use based on the current American standards was found to be inadequate. Suitable screw-fastened plate stiffener arrangements with optimum thicknesses have been proposed for LSBs with web openings to restore their original shear capacity. This paper presents the details of the numerical study and the results.

Application of Resilience concept for enhanced management of water supply systems

This paper presents an approach to developing indicators for expressing resilience of a generic water supply system. The system is contextualised as a meta-system consisting of three subsystems to represent the water catchment and reservoir, treatment plant and the distribution system supplying the end-users. The level of final service delivery to end-users is considered as a surrogate measure of systemic resilience. A set of modelled relationships are used to explore relationships between system components when placed under simulated stress. Conceptual system behaviour of specific types of simulated pressure is created for illustration of parameters for indicator development. The approach is based on the hypothesis that an in-depth knowledge of resilience would enable development of decision support system capability which in turn will contribute towards enhanced management of a water supply system. In contrast to conventional water supply system management approaches, a resilience approach facilitates improvement in system efficiency by emphasising awareness of points-of-intervention where system managers can adjust operational control measures across the meta-system (and within subsystems) rather than expansion of the system in entirety in the form of new infrastructure development.

Cellular model systems to study the tumor biological role of kallikrein-related peptidases in ovarian and prostate cancer

Since the identification of the gene family of kallikrein related peptidases (KLKs), their function has been robustly studied at the biochemical level. In vitro biochemical studies have shown that KLK proteases are involved in a number of extracellular processes that initiate intracellular signaling pathways by hydrolysis, as reviewed in Chapters 8, 9, and 15, Volume 1. These events have been associated with more invasive phenotypes of ovarian, prostate, and other cancers. Concomitantly, aberrant expression of KLKs has been associated with poor prognosis of patients with ovarian and prostate cancer (Borgoño and Diamandis, 2004; Clements et al., 2004; Yousef and Diamandis, 2009), with prostate-specific antigen (PSA, KLK3) being a long standing, clinically employed biomarker for prostate cancer (Lilja et al., 2008). Data generated from patient samples in clinical studies, alongwith biochemical activity, suggests that KLKs function in the development and progression of these diseases. To bridge the gap between their function at the molecular level and the clinical need for efficacious treatment and prognostic biomarkers, functional assessment at the in vitro cellular level, using various culture models, is increasing, particularly in a three-dimensional (3D) context (Abbott, 2003; Bissell and Radisky, 2001; Pampaloni et al., 2007; Yamada and Cukierman, 2007).

Common DC link in residential LV network to improve the penetration level of Small-Scale Embedded Generators

This paper presents a new approach for network upgrading to improve the penetration level of Small Scale Generators in residential feeders. In this paper, it is proposed that a common DC link can be added to LV network to alleviate the negative impact of increased export power on AC lines, allowing customers to inject their surplus power with no restrictions to the common DC link. In addition, it is shown that the proposed approach can be a pathway from current AC network to future DC network.

Multi-area reliability assessment of interconnected generating systems using hybrid approach

This paper present an efficient method using system state sampling technique in Monte Carlo simulation for reliability evaluation of multi-area power systems, at Hierarchical Level One (HLI). System state sampling is one of the common methods used in Monte Carlo simulation. The cpu time and memory requirement can be a problem, using this method. Combination of analytical and Monte Carlo method known as Hybrid method, as presented in this paper, can enhance the efficiency of the solution. Incorporation of load model in this study can be utilised either by sampling or enumeration. Both cases are examined in this paper, by application of the methods on Roy Billinton Test System(RBTS).

Application-level simulation for network security

NeSSi (network security simulator) is a novel network simulation tool which incorporates a variety of features relevant to network security distinguishing it from general-purpose network simulators. Its capabilities such as profile-based automated attack generation, traffic analysis and support for detection algorithm plug-ins allow it to be used for security research and evaluation purposes. NeSSi has been successfully used for testing intrusion detection algorithms, conducting network security analysis and developing overlay security frameworks. NeSSi is built upon the agent framework JIAC, resulting in a distributed and extensible architecture. In this paper, we provide an overview of the NeSSi architecture as well as its distinguishing features and briefly demonstrate its application to current security research projects.

Retrieving information from microblog using pattern mining and relevance feedback

Retrieving information from Twitter is always challenging due to its large volume, inconsistent writing and noise. Most existing information retrieval (IR) and text mining methods focus on term-based approach, but suffers from the problems of terms variation such as polysemy and synonymy. This problem deteriorates when such methods are applied on Twitter due to the length limit. Over the years, people have held the hypothesis that pattern-based methods should perform better than term-based methods as it provides more context, but limited studies have been conducted to support such hypothesis especially in Twitter. This paper presents an innovative framework to address the issue of performing IR in microblog. The proposed framework discover patterns in tweets as higher level feature to assign weight for low-level features (i.e. terms) based on their distributions in higher level features. We present the experiment results based on TREC11 microblog dataset and shows that our proposed approach significantly outperforms term-based methods Okapi BM25, TF-IDF and pattern based methods, using precision, recall and F measures.

Supply chain benefits expectation management framework

Organizations invest heavily in Supply Chain Management Systems expecting the benefits promised by the software vendors and the implementation partners. However, both academic and industry reports suggest that there is growing dissatisfaction among client organizations due to an increasing gap in benefits purported by the software vendors and benefits realised by the client. In order to better manage expectations of the client organization, this study proposes a Benefit Expectation Management Framework for Supply Chain Management Systems, based on Expectation-Confirmation Theory. This study derives 60 expected benefits of Supply Chain Management Systems through 41 vendor-reported customer stories and academic papers. Through comparing those benefits with the received benefits by a case organization that has implemented SAP Supply Chain Management Systems for seven years, two salient factors – long timetable and multiple stakeholders – have been identified as the controlling factors affecting the confirmation level of Supply Chain Management System expectations and further impacting the satisfaction of a client organization. The case study also highlights the likely causes for realized benefits and enduring issues in relation to the Supply Chain Management Systems.

A multi-scaled approach for simulating chemical reaction systems

In this paper we give an overview of some very recent work, as well as presenting a new approach, on the stochastic simulation of multi-scaled systems involving chemical reactions. In many biological systems (such as genetic regulation and cellular dynamics) there is a mix between small numbers of key regulatory proteins, and medium and large numbers of molecules. In addition, it is important to be able to follow the trajectories of individual molecules by taking proper account of the randomness inherent in such a system. We describe different types of simulation techniques (including the stochastic simulation algorithm, Poisson Runge-Kutta methods and the balanced Euler method) for treating simulations in the three different reaction regimes: slow, medium and fast. We then review some recent techniques on the treatment of coupled slow and fast reactions for stochastic chemical kinetics and present a new approach which couples the three regimes mentioned above. We then apply this approach to a biologically inspired problem involving the expression and activity of LacZ and LacY proteins in E coli, and conclude with a discussion on the significance of this work. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personalized recommender systems integrating tags and item taxonomy

The social tags in Web 2.0 are becoming another important information source to profile users' interests and preferences to make personalized recommendations. To solve the problem of low information sharing caused by the free-style vocabulary of tags and the long tails of the distribution of tags and items, this paper proposes an approach to integrate the social tags given by users and the item taxonomy with standard vocabulary and hierarchical structure provided by experts to make personalized recommendations. The experimental results show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the information sharing and recommendation accuracy.