Toward seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts

The CWRF is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) forcings that are crucial to climate scales, including interactions between land, atmosphere, and ocean; convection and microphysics; and cloud, aerosol, and radiation; and system consistency throughout all process modules. This extension inherits all WRF functionalities for numerical weather prediction while enhancing the capability for climate modeling. As such, CWRF can be applied seamlessly to weather forecast and climate prediction. The CWRF is built with a comprehensive ensemble of alternative parameterization schemes for each of the key physical processes, including surface (land, ocean), planetary boundary layer, cumulus (deep, shallow), microphysics, cloud, aerosol, and radiation, and their interactions. This facilitates the use of an optimized physics ensemble approach to improve weather or climate prediction along with a reliable uncertainty estimate. The CWRF also emphasizes the societal service capability to provide impactrelevant information by coupling with detailed models of terrestrial hydrology, coastal ocean, crop growth, air quality, and a recently expanded interactive water quality and ecosystem model. This study provides a general CWRF description and basic skill evaluation based on a continuous integration for the period 1979– 2009 as compared with that of WRF, using a 30-km grid spacing over a domain that includes the contiguous United States plus southern Canada and northern Mexico. In addition to advantages of greater application capability, CWRF improves performance in radiation and terrestrial hydrology over WRF and other regional models. Precipitation simulation, however, remains a challenge for all of the tested models.

High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation

The interannual variability of the stratospheric winter polar vortex is correlated with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds. This dynamical coupling between high and low latitudes, often referred to as the Holton–Tan effect, has been the subject of numerous observational and modelling studies, yet important questions regarding its mechanism remain unanswered. In particular it remains unclear which vertical levels of the QBO exert the strongest influence on the winter polar vortex, and how QBO–vortex coupling interacts with the effects of other sources of atmospheric interannual variability such as the 11-year solar cycle or the El Nino Southern Oscillation. As stratosphere-resolving general circulation models begin to resolve the QBO and represent its teleconnections with other parts of the climate system, it seems timely to summarize what is currently known about the QBO’s high-latitude influence. In this review article, we offer a synthesis of the modelling and observational analyses of QBO–vortex coupling that have appeared in the literature, and update the observational record.

In-situ spatio-temporal measurements of the detailed azimuthal substructure of the substorm current wedge

The substorm current wedge (SCW) is a fundamental component of geomagnetic substorms. Models tend to describe the SCW as a simple line current flowing into the ionosphere towards dawn and out of the ionosphere towards dusk, linked by a westward electrojet. We use multi-spacecraft observations from perigee passes of the Cluster 1 and 4 spacecraft during a substorm on 15 Jan 2010, in conjunction with ground-based observations, to examine the spatial structuring and temporal variability of the SCW. At this time, the spacecraft travelled east-west azimuthally above the auroral region. We show that the SCW has significant azimuthal sub-structure on scales of 100~km at altitudes of 4,000-7,000~km. We identify 26 individual current sheets in the Cluster 4 data and 34 individual current sheets in the Cluster 1 data, with Cluster 1 passing through the SCW 120-240~s after Cluster 4 at 1,300-2,000~km higher altitude. Both spacecraft observed large-scale regions of net upward and downward field-aligned current, consistent with the large-scale characteristics of the SCW, although sheets of oppositely directed currents were observed within both regions. We show that the majority of these current sheets were closely aligned to a north-south direction, in contrast to the expected east-west orientation of the pre-onset aurora. Comparing our results with observations of the field-aligned current associated with bursty bulk flows (BBFs) we conclude that significant questions remain for the explanation of SCW structuring by BBF driven ``wedgelets". Our results therefore represent constraints on future modelling and theoretical frameworks on the generation of the SCW.

New opportunities for secure communication networks using shaped femtosecond laser pulses inducing filamentation processes in the atmosphere

The current study discusses new opportunities for secure ground to satellite communications using shaped femtosecond pulses that induce spatial hole burning in the atmosphere for efficient communications with data encoded within super-continua generated by femtosecond pulses. Refractive index variation across the different layers in the atmosphere may be modelled using assumptions that the upper strata of the atmosphere and troposphere behaving as layered composite amorphous dielectric networks composed of resistors and capacitors with different time constants across each layer. Input-output expressions of the dynamics of the networks in the frequency domain provide the transmission characteristics of the propagation medium. Femtosecond pulse shaping may be used to optimize the pulse phase-front and spectral composition across the different layers in the atmosphere. A generic procedure based on evolutionary algorithms to perform the pulse shaping is proposed. In contrast to alternative procedures that would require ab initio modelling and calculations of the propagation constant for the pulse through the atmosphere, the proposed approach is adaptive, compensating for refractive index variations along the column of air between the transmitter and receiver.

How well can we model stream phosphorus concentrations in agricultural catchments?

Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. We investigate the reasons for this for one model, INCA-P, testing model output against 18 months of daily data in a small Scottish catchment. We examine key model processes and provide recommendations for model improvement and simplification. Improvements to the particulate phosphorus simulation are especially needed. The model evaluation procedure is then generalised to provide a checklist for identifying why model performance may be poor or unreliable, incorporating calibration, data, structural and conceptual challenges. There needs to be greater recognition that current models struggle to produce positive Nash–Sutcliffe statistics in agricultural catchments when evaluated against daily data. Phosphorus modelling is difficult, but models are not as useless as this might suggest. We found a combination of correlation coefficients, bias, a comparison of distributions and a visual assessment of time series a better means of identifying realistic simulations.

Transport of the smoke plume from Chiado’s fire in Lisbon (Portugal) sensed by atmospheric electric field measurements

The Chiado’s fire that affected the city centre of Lisbon (Portugal) occurred on 25th August 1988 and had a significant human and environmental impact. This fire was considered the most significant hazard to have occurred in Lisbon city centre after the major earthquake of 1755. A clear signature of this fire is found in the atmospheric electric field data recorded at Portela meteorological station about 8 km NE from the site where the fire started at Chiado. Measurements were made using a Benndorf electrograph with a probe at 1 m height. The atmospheric electric field reached 510 V/m when the wind direction was coming from SW to NE, favourable to the transport of the smoke plume from Chiado to Portela. Such observations agree with predictions using Hysplit air mass trajectory modelling and have been used to estimate the smoke concentration to be ~0.4 mg/m3. It is demonstrated that atmospheric electric field measurements were therefore extremely sensitive to Chiado’s fire. This result is of particular current interest in using networks of atmospheric electric field sensors to complement existing optical and meteorological observations for fire monitoring.

A survey of data mining techniques for social media analysis

Social network has gained remarkable attention in the last decade. Accessing social network sites such as Twitter, Facebook LinkedIn and Google+ through the internet and the web 2.0 technologies has become more affordable. People are becoming more interested in and relying on social network for information, news and opinion of other users on diverse subject matters. The heavy reliance on social network sites causes them to generate massive data characterised by three computational issues namely; size, noise and dynamism. These issues often make social network data very complex to analyse manually, resulting in the pertinent use of computational means of analysing them. Data mining provides a wide range of techniques for detecting useful knowledge from massive datasets like trends, patterns and rules [44]. Data mining techniques are used for information retrieval, statistical modelling and machine learning. These techniques employ data pre-processing, data analysis, and data interpretation processes in the course of data analysis. This survey discusses different data mining techniques used in mining diverse aspects of the social network over decades going from the historical techniques to the up-to-date models, including our novel technique named TRCM. All the techniques covered in this survey are listed in the Table.1 including the tools employed as well as names of their authors.

Exploring invention capability

Research on invention has focused on business invention and little work has been conducted on the process and capability required for the individual inventor or the capabilities required for an advice to be considered an invention. This paper synthesises the results of an empirical survey of ten inventor case studies with current research on invention and recent capability affordance research to develop an integrated capability process model of human capabilities for invention and specific capabilities of an invented device. We identify eight necessary human effectivities required for individual invention capability and six functional key activities using these effectivities, to deliver the functional capability of invention. We also identified key differences between invention and general problem solving processes. Results suggest that inventive step capability relies on a unique application of principles that relate to a new combination of affordance chain with a new mechanism and or space time (affordance) path representing the novel way the device works, in conjunction with defined critical affordance operating factors that are the subject of the patent claims.

Energy consistent discontinuous Galerkin methods for a quasi-incompressible diffuse two phase flow model

We design consistent discontinuous Galerkin finite element schemes for the approximation of a quasi-incompressible two phase flow model of Allen–Cahn/Cahn–Hilliard/Navier–Stokes–Korteweg type which allows for phase transitions. We show that the scheme is mass conservative and monotonically energy dissipative. In this case the dissipation is isolated to discrete equivalents of those effects already causing dissipation on the continuous level, that is, there is no artificial numerical dissipation added into the scheme. In this sense the methods are consistent with the energy dissipation of the continuous PDE system.

Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations

Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally.

Ice-sheet configuration in the CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Glacial Maximum experiments

We describe the creation of a data set describing changes related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and elevation of ice-free land at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which were used in LGM experiments conducted as part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the third phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The CMIP5/PMIP3 data sets were created from reconstructions made by three different groups, which were all obtained using a model-inversion approach but differ in the assumptions used in the modelling and in the type of data used as constraints. The ice-sheet extent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) does not vary substantially between the three individual data sources. The difference in the topography of the NH ice sheets is also moderate, and smaller than the differences between these reconstructions (and the resultant composite reconstruction) and ice-sheet reconstructions used in previous generations of PMIP. Only two of the individual reconstructions provide information for Antarctica. The discrepancy between these two reconstructions is larger than the difference for the NH ice sheets, although still less than the difference between the composite reconstruction and previous PMIP ice-sheet reconstructions. Although largely confined to the ice-covered regions, differences between the climate response to the individual LGM reconstructions extend over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northern Hemisphere continents, partly through atmospheric stationary waves. Differences between the climate response to the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and any individual ice-sheet reconstruction are smaller than those between the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and the ice sheet used in the last phase of PMIP (PMIP2).

Determinants of satisfaction amongst tenants of UK Offices

Purpose – Corporate Occupiers require offices and services which meet their business needs, whilst landlords must attract and retain occupiers in order to maximise occupancy and rental income. The purpose of this research is to help landlords and corporate occupiers understand each other better, in order to achieve a mutually beneficial relationship. Design/methodology/approach - This paper analyses interviews with 1334 office tenants in the UK, conducted over an 11-year period, to investigate determinants of occupier satisfaction, loyalty and advocacy. Structural equation modelling and regressions are performed using respondents’ ratings of satisfaction with many aspects of occupancy as explanatory variables. The dependent variables include satisfaction with property management, value for money, overall occupier satisfaction, lease renewal intentions and occupiers’ willingness to recommend their landlord. Findings - The aspects with most impact on occupiers’ satisfaction are the office building itself, its location and amenities, and also communication with their property manager, a belief that their business needs are understood and the property manager’s responsiveness to occupiers’ requests. Occupiers’ loyalty depends mainly upon feeling that their rent and service charges provide value for money, an amicable leasing process, the professionalism of their property manager and the Corporate Social Responsibility of the Landlord. ‘Empathy’ is crucial to occupiers’ willingness to recommend their landlord, and clear documentation and efficient legal process improve occupiers’ perception of receiving ‘Value for Money’. Research Limitations - The sample is skewed towards occupiers of prime office buildings in the UK, owned by landlords who care sufficiently about their tenants to commission studies into occupier satisfaction. Practical implications - This research should help to improve the landlord – tenant relationship, benefitting the businesses that rent property and helping building managers understand where to focus their efforts to achieve maximum effect on occupier satisfaction, loyalty and advocacy. Originality/value - There has been little academic research into the determinants of satisfaction of occupiers of UK commercial property. This large-scale study enables the most influential factors to be identified and prioritised.

The role of evaporating showers in the transfer of sting-jet momentum to the surface

The most damaging winds in a severe extratropical cyclone often occur just ahead of the evaporating ends of cloud filaments emanating from the so-called cloud head. These winds are associated with low-level jets (LLJs), sometimes occurring just above the boundary layer. The question then arises as to how the high momentum is transferred to the surface. An opportunity to address this question arose when the severe ‘St Jude's Day’ windstorm travelled across southern England on 28 October 2013. We have carried out a mesoanalysis of a network of 1 min resolution automatic weather stations and high-resolution Doppler radar scans from the sensitive S-band Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar (CAMRa), along with satellite and radar network imagery and numerical weather prediction products. We show that, although the damaging winds occurred in a relatively dry region of the cyclone, there was evidence within the LLJ of abundant precipitation residues from shallow convective clouds that were evaporating in a localized region of descent. We find that pockets of high momentum were transported towards the surface by the few remaining actively precipitating convective clouds within the LLJ and also by precipitation-free convection in the boundary layer that was able to entrain evaporatively cooled air from the LLJ. The boundary-layer convection was organized in along-wind rolls separated by 500 to about 3000 m, the spacing varying according to the vertical extent of the convection. The spacing was greatest where the strongest winds penetrated to the surface. A run with a medium-resolution version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was able to reproduce the properties of the observed LLJ. It confirmed the LLJ to be a sting jet, which descended over the leading edge of a weaker cold-conveyor-belt jet.

Spatial housing economics: a survey

This introduction to the Virtual Special Issue surveys the development of spatial housing economics from its roots in neo-classical theory, through more recent developments in social interactions modelling, and touching on the role of institutions, path dependence and economic history. The survey also points to some of the more promising future directions for the subject that are beginning to appear in the literature. The survey covers elements hedonic models, spatial econometrics, neighbourhood models, housing market areas, housing supply, models of segregation, migration, housing tenure, sub-national house price modelling including the so-called ripple effect, and agent-based models. Possible future directions are set in the context of a selection of recent papers that have appeared in Urban Studies. Nevertheless, there are still important gaps in the literature that merit further attention, arising at least partly from emerging policy problems. These include more research on housing and biodiversity, the relationship between housing and civil unrest, the effects of changing age distributions - notably housing for the elderly - and the impact of different international institutional structures. Methodologically, developments in Big Data provide an exciting framework for future work.

How do green roofs mitigate urban thermal stress under heat waves?

As the climate warms, heat waves (HW) are projected to be more intense and to last longer, with serious implications for public health. Urban residents face higher health risks because urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate HW conditions. One strategy to mitigate negative impacts of urban thermal stress is the installation of green roofs (GRs) given their evaporative cooling effect. However, the effectiveness of GRs and the mechanisms by which they have an effect at the scale of entire cities are still largely unknown. The Greater Beijing Region (GBR) is modeled for a HW scenario with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a state-of-the-art urban canopy model (PUCM) to examine the effectiveness of GRs. The results suggest GR would decrease near-surface air temperature (ΔT2max = 2.5 K) and wind speed (ΔUV10max = 1.0 m s-1) but increase atmospheric humidity (ΔQ2max = 1.3 g kg-1). GRs are simulated to lessen the overall thermal stress as indicated by apparent temperature (ΔAT2max = 1.7 °C). The modifications by GRs scale almost linearly with the fraction of the surface they cover. Investigation of the surface-atmosphere interactions indicate that GRs with plentiful soil moisture dissipate more of the surface energy as latent heat flux and subsequently inhibit the development of the daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL). This causes the atmospheric heating through entrainment at the PBL top to be decreased. Additionally, urban GRs modify regional circulation regimes leading to decreased advective heating under HW.