Germany’s ‘refugee’ problem. The most important test for Chancellor Merkel and the grand coalition. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 182/11.09.2015 2015-09-11

The rapid increase in the number of immigrants from outside of the EU coming to Germany has become the paramount political issue. According to new estimates, the number of individuals expected arrive in Germany in 2015 and apply for asylum there is 800,000, which is nearly twice as many as estimated in earlier forecasts. Various administrative, financial and social problems related to the influx of migrants are becoming increasingly apparent. The problem of ‘refugees’ (in public debate, the terms ‘immigrants’, ‘refugees’, ‘illegal immigrants’, ‘economic immigrants’ have not been clearly defined and have often been used interchangeably) has been culminating for over a year. Despite this, it was being disregarded by Angela Merkel’s government which was preoccupied with debates on how to rescue Greece. It was only daily reports of cases of refugee centres being set on fire that convinced Chancellor Merkel to speak and to make immigration problem a priority issue (Chefsache). Neither the ruling coalition nor the opposition parties have a consistent idea of how Germany should react to the growing number of refugees. In this matter, divisions run across parties. Various solutions have been proposed, from liberalisation of laws on the right to stay in Germany to combating illegal immigration more effectively, which would be possible if asylum granting procedures were accelerated. The proposed solutions have not been properly thought through, instead they are reactive measures inspired by the results of opinion polls. This is why their assumptions are often contradictory. The situation is similar regarding the actions proposed by Chancellor Merkel which involve faster procedures to expel individuals with no right to stay in Germany and a plan to convince other EU states to accept ‘refugees’. None of these ideas is new – they were already present in the German internal debate.

(Table T1) Calcium carbonate mineralogy and stable isotopic composition of ODP Hole 182-1132C sediments

Petrographic observation and carbonate mineralogic and stable isotopic investigation were conducted on lower Oligocene to middle Miocene sediments recovered during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 182 from Site 1132, located at a water depth of 218.5 m immediately seaward of the shelf-slope break of the eastern Eyre Terrace in the western Great Australian Bight. The middle Miocene section consists of bioclastic packstone and grainstone with an interval of partially silicified nannofossil-foraminiferal chalk and is slightly to densely dolomitized. By contrast, the lower Oligocene to lower Miocene section is characterized by a predominance of planktonic and benthic foraminifers, high porosity, absence of chert, and weak dolomitization. The carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of calcites and dolomites between two sections, however, shows no significant difference.

(Table T1) Ice rafted debris characteristics of ODP Site 177-1092

We have carried out a multiphase analysis of samples from ODP Site 177-1092, Meteor Rise, subantarctic South Atlantic. Samples were analyzed for ice-rafted debris (IRD [see Table T1]) and stable isotopes from benthic foraminifera [see Murphy et al., 2002, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(01)00495-3]. Both analyses were performed on the same samples. Additional work was performed to identify the paleomagnetic stratigraphy. The analyzed samples range in age from about 2.6(?) Ma to 4.6 Ma, a time span that saw considerable global warmth, but witnessed overall global refrigeration and the transition to truly bipolar glaciations. IRD arrived frequently during the Early and early Late Pliocene, but only as 'background rafting' (occasional grains per sample). The first identifiable IRD above background rafting is associated with marine isotope stage (MIS) KM4 (~3.18 Ma). Successive IRD peaks become larger, the same pattern as noted at nearby Site 114-704. A very large peak near the top of the record, approximately 2.8 Ma, is considered to represent a hiatus. Peaks below 51.3 meters composite depth (mcd) coincide with positive excursions of the oxygen isotopic record, and with negative excursions of the carbon isotopic curve, a pattern also noted at Site 114-704. However, the reasonably large IRD peak at 51 mcd (tentatively identified with MIS G11) coincides with a positive excursion on the carbon isotopic curve and negative excursion on the oxygen isotopic curve. This relationship suggests a northern hemisphere interglacial, rising sea level, destabilization of the Antarctic margin, and delivery of Antarctic icebergs to the Southern Ocean. Such a mechanism has recently been suggested by Kanfoush et al. (2000, doi:10.1126/science.288.5472.1815) for latest Pleistocene stadial/interstadial oscillations. Here we suggest that such a mechanism may have been in place on glacial/interglacial time scales as early as the Late Pliocene.

Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of globally distributed benthic stable oxygen isotope records

We present a 5.3-Myr stack (the ''LR04'' stack) of benthic d18O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm. This is the first benthic delta18O stack composed of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka, and we use its improved signal quality to identify 24 new marine isotope stages in the early Pliocene. We also present a new LR04 age model for the Pliocene-Pleistocene derived from tuning the delta18O stack to a simple ice model based on 21 June insolation at 65 N. Stacked sedimentation rates provide additional age model constraints to prevent overtuning. Despite a conservative tuning strategy, the LR04 benthic stack exhibits significant coherency with insolation in the obliquity band throughout the entire 5.3 Myr and in the precession band for more than half of the record. The LR04 stack contains significantly more variance in benthic delta18O than previously published stacks of the late Pleistocene as the result of higher resolution records, a better alignment technique, and a greater percentage of records from the Atlantic. Finally, the relative phases of the stack's 41- and 23-kyr components suggest that the precession component of delta18O from 2.7-1.6 Ma is primarily a deep-water temperature signal and that the phase of d18O precession response changed suddenly at 1.6 Ma.