Regional growth, structural change, and natural disaster

Hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and other serious natural hazards have been attributed with causing changes in regional economic growth, income, employment, and wealth. Natural disasters are said to cause; (1) an acceleration of existing economic trends; (2) an expansion of employment and income, due to recovery operations (the so-called silver lining); and (3) an alteration in the structure of regional economic activity due to changes in "intra" and "inter" regional trading patterns, and technological change.^ Theoretical and stylized disaster simulations (Cochrane 1975; Haas, Cochrane, and Kates 1977; Petak et al. 1982; Ellson et al. 1983, 1984; Boisvert 1992; Brookshire and McKee 1992) point towards a wide scope of possible negative and long lasting impacts upon economic activity and structure. This work examines the consequences of Hurricane Andrew on Dade County's economy. Following the work of Ellson et al. (1984), Guimaraes et al. (1993), and West and Lenze (1993; 1994), a regional econometric forecasting model (DCEFM) using a framework of "with" and "without" the hurricane is constructed and utilized to assess Hurricane Andrew's impact on the structure and level of economic activity in Dade County, Florida.^ The results of the simulation exercises show that the direct economic impact associated with Hurricane Andrew on Dade County is of short duration, and of isolated sectoral impact, with impact generally limited to construction, TCP (transportation, communications, and public utilities), and agricultural sectors. Regional growth, and changes in income and employment reacted directly to, and within the range and direction set by national economic activity. The simulations also lead to the conclusion that areal extent, infrastructure, and sector specific damages or impacts, as opposed to monetary losses, are the primary determinants of a disaster's effects upon employment, income, growth, and economic structure. ^

Empirical study of exchange rates in Brazil, Canada and the Caribbean

This dissertation examines the monetary models of exchange rate determination for Brazil, Canada, and two countries in the Caribbean, namely, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. With the exception of Canada, the others adopted the floating regime during the past ten years.^ The empirical validity of four seminal models in exchange rate economics were determined. Three of these models were entirely classical (Bilson and Frenkel) or Keynesian (Dornbusch) in nature. The fourth model (Real Interest Differential Model) was a mixture of the two schools of economic theory.^ There is no clear empirical evidence of the validity of the monetary models. However, the signs of the coefficients of the nominal interest differential variable were as predicted by the Keynesian hypothesis in the case of Canada and as predicted by the Chicago theorists in the remaining countries. Moreover, in case of Brazil, due to hyperinflation, the exchange rate is heavily influenced by domestic money supply.^ I also tested the purchasing power parity (PPP) for this same set of countries. For both the monetary as well as the PPP hypothesis, I tested for co-integration and applied ordinary least squares estimation procedure. The error correction model was also used for the PPP model, to determine convergence to equilibrium.^ The validity of PPP is also questionable for my set of countries. Endogeinity among the regressors as well as the lack of proper price indices are the contributing factors. More importantly, Central Bank intervention negate rapid adjustment of price and exchange rates to their equilibrium value. However, its forecasting capability for the period 1993-1994 is superior compared to the monetary models in two of the four cases.^ I conclude that in spite of the questionable validity of these models, the monetary models give better results in the case of the "smaller" economies like the Dominican Republic and Jamaica where monetary influences swamp the other determinants of exchange rate. ^

Three Essays on the Economics of Defense Contracting, Output and Income Inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.

Keynes’s "Treatise on Money" and the role of the State

Este artículo hace una reconstrucción crítica de la visión de Keynes sobre la relación entre gasto público, tipo de interés, salarios y desempleo, tal y como se formula en su Tratado sobre el Dinero. El trabajo defiende que el enfoque de Keynes lleva a propuestas de política económica que enfatizan la necesidad de intervención estatal directa en la provisión de bienes y servicios. Esta conclusión se deriva de una interpretación circuitista de su obra.

El dinero en la historia del pensamiento económico: la teoría monetaria postkeynesiana y su confrontación con la ortodoxia

Las disputas en torno a determinados aspectos del dinero, como su neutralidad y el carácter endógeno o exógeno de la oferta monetaria, han sido permanentes entre las distintas escuelas de pensamiento y autores, estando su origen, probablemente, en la época de desarrollo del pensamiento escolástico. En este artículo pretendemos, en primer lugar, realizar un recorrido cronológico e histórico sobre el tratamiento científico económico del dinero, para, en segundo lugar, poner sobre la mesa la macroeconomía ortodoxa a la que han dado lugar las interpretaciones al respecto, así como los enfoques alternativos frente a este pensamiento dominante. Finalmente, intentamos poner en valor los desarrollos monetarios post-keynesianos, integrados en lo que denominan “Economía Monetaria de Producción”, confrontándolos con la llamada Nueva Síntesis Neoclásica.

Ciclos económicos, capital bancario y nuevas opciones de política económica

El objetivo de este trabajo es utilizar algunos hechos estilizados de la "Gran recesión", específicamente la drástica caída en el nivel de capitalización bancario, para analizar la relación entre los ciclos financieros y los ciclos reales, así como la efectividad de la política monetaria no convencional y las políticas macroprudenciales. Para esto, en el primer capítulo se desarrolla una microfundamentación de la banca a partir de un modelo de Costly State Verification, que es incluido posteriomente en distintas especificaciones de modelos DSGE. Los resultados muestran que: (i) los ciclos financieros y los ciclos económicos pueden relacionarse a partir del deterioro del capital bancario; (ii) Las políticas macroprudenciales y no convencionales son efectivas para moderar los ciclos económicos, pero son costosas en términos de recursos e inflación.

Employee work motivation and discretionary work effort

The focus of this thesis is discretionary work effort, that is, work effort that is voluntary, is above and beyond what is minimally required or normally expected to avoid reprimand or dismissal, and is organisationally functional. Discretionary work effort is an important construct because it is known to affect individual performance as well as organisational efficiency and effectiveness. To optimise organisational performance and ensure their long term competitiveness and sustainability, firms need to be able to induce their employees to work at or near their peak level. To work at or near their peak level, individuals must be willing to supply discretionary work effort. Thus, managers need to understand the determinants of discretionary work effort. Nonetheless, despite many years of scholarly investigation across multiple disciplines, considerable debate still exists concerning why some individuals supply only minimal work effort whilst others expend effort well above and beyond what is minimally required of them (Le. they supply discretionary work effort). Even though it is well recognised that discretionary work effort is important for promoting organisational performance and effectiveness, many authors claim that too little is being done by managers to increase the discretionary work effort of their employees. In this research, I have adopted a multi-disciplinary approach towards investigating the role of monetary and non-monetary work environment characteristics in determining discretionary work effort. My central research questions were "What non-monetary work environment characteristics do employees perceive as perks (perquisites) and irks (irksome work environment characteristics)?" and "How do perks, irks and monetary rewards relate to an employee's level of discretionary work effort?" My research took a unique approach in addressing these research questions. By bringing together the economics and organisational behaviour (OB) literatures, I identified problems with the current definition and conceptualisations of the discretionary work effort construct. I then developed and empirically tested a more concise and theoretically-based definition and conceptualisation of this construct. In doing so, I disaggregated discretionary work effort to include three facets - time, intensity and direction - and empirically assessed if different classes of work environment characteristics have a differential pattern of relationships with these facets. This analysis involved a new application of a multi-disciplinary framework of human behaviour as a tool for classifying work environment characteristics and the facets of discretionary work effort. To test my model of discretionary work effort, I used a public sector context in which there has been limited systematic empirical research into work motivation. The program of research undertaken involved three separate but interrelated studies using mixed methods. Data on perks, irks, monetary rewards and discretionary work effort were gathered from employees in 12 organisations in the local government sector in Western Australia. Non-monetary work environment characteristics that should be associated with discretionary work effort were initially identified through a review of the literature. Then, a qualitative study explored what work behaviours public sector employees perceive as discretionary and what perks and irks were associated with high and low levels of discretionary work effort. Next, a quantitative study developed measures of these perks and irks. A Q-sorttype procedure and exploratory factor analysis were used to develop the perks and irks measures. Finally, a second quantitative study tested the relationships amongst perks, irks, monetary rewards and discretionary work effort. Confirmatory factor analysis was firstly used to confirm the factor structure of the measurement models. Correlation analysis, regression analysis and effect-size correlation analysis were used to test the hypothesised relationships in the proposed model of discretionary work effort. The findings confirmed five hypothesised non-monetary work environment characteristics as common perks and two of three hypothesised non-monetary work environment characteristics as common irks. Importantly, they showed that perks, irks and monetary rewards are differentially related to the different facets of discretionary work effort. The convergent and discriminant validities of the perks and irks constructs as well as the time, intensity and direction facets of discretionary work effort were generally confirmed by the research findings. This research advances the literature in several ways: (i) it draws on the Economics and OB literatures to redefine and reconceptualise the discretionary work effort construct to provide greater definitional clarity and a more complete conceptualisation of this important construct; (ii) it builds on prior research to create a more comprehensive set of perks and irks for which measures are developed; (iii) it develops and empirically tests a new motivational model of discretionary work effort that enhances our understanding of the nature and functioning of perks and irks and advances our ability to predict discretionary work effort; and (iv) it fills a substantial gap in the literature on public sector work motivation by revealing what work behaviours public sector employees perceive as discretionary and what work environment characteristics are associated with their supply of discretionary work effort. Importantly, by disaggregating discretionary work effort this research provides greater detail on how perks, irks and monetary rewards are related to the different facets of discretionary work effort. Thus, from a theoretical perspective this research also demonstrates the conceptual meaningfulness and empirical utility of investigating the different facets of discretionary work effort separately. From a practical perspective, identifying work environment factors that are associated with discretionary work effort enhances managers' capacity to tap this valuable resource. This research indicates that to maximise the potential of their human resources, managers need to address perks, irks and monetary rewards. It suggests three different mechanisms through which managers might influence discretionary work effort and points to the importance of training for both managers and non-managers in cultivating positive interpersonal relationships.

Economics of maritime disasters : essays on the Titanic and Lusitania

This work seeks to fill some of the gap existing in the economics and behavioural economics literature pertaining to the decision making process of individuals under extreme environmental situations (life and death events). These essays specifically examine the sinking’s of the R.M.S. Titanic, on 14th April of 1912, and the R.M.S. Lusitania, on 7th May 1915, using econometric (multivariate) analysis techniques. The results show that even under extreme life and death conditions, social norms matter and are reflected in the survival probabilities of individuals onboard the Titanic. However, results from the comparative analysis of the Titanic and Lusitania show that social norms take time to organise and be effective. In the presence of such time constraints, the traditional “homo economicus” model of individual behaviour becomes evident as a survival of the fittest competition.

Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models

We advance the proposition that dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models should not only be estimated and evaluated with full information methods. These require that the complete system of equations be specified properly. Some limited information analysis, which focuses upon specific equations, is therefore likely to be a useful complement to full system analysis. Two major problems occur when implementing limited information methods. These are the presence of forward-looking expectations in the system as well as unobservable non-stationary variables. We present methods for dealing with both of these difficulties, and illustrate the interaction between full and limited information methods using a well-known model.

Copyright and creative innovation in China : an evolutionary approach?

China has made great progress in constructing comprehensive legislative and judicial infrastructures to protect intellectual property rights. But levels of enforcement remain low. Estimates suggest that 90% of film and music products consumed in China are ‘pirated’ and in 2009 81% of the infringing goods seized at the US border originated from China. Despite of heavy criticism over its failure to enforce IPRs, key areas of China’s creative industries, including film, mobile-music, fashion and animation, are developing rapidly. This paper explores how the rapid expansion of China’s creative economy might be reconciled with conceptual approaches that view the CIs in terms of creativity inputs and IP outputs. It argues that an evolutionary understanding of copyright’s role in creative innovation might better explain China’s experiences and provide more general insights into the nature of the creative industries and the policies most likely to promote growth in this sector of the economy.

Paradigm shifters : tricksters and cultural science

This paper seeks to link anthropological and economic treatments of the process of innovation and change, not only within a given ‘complex system’ (e.g. a cosmology; an industry) but also between systems (e.g. cultural and economic systems; but also divine and human systems). The role of the ‘Go-Between’ is considered, both in the anthropological figure of the Trickster (Hyde 1998) and in the Schumpeterian entrepreneur. Both figures parlay appetite (economic wants) into meaning (cultural signs). Both practice a form of creativity based on deception, ‘creative destruction’; renewal by disruption and needs-must adaptation. The disciplinary purpose of the paper is to try to bridge two otherwise disconnected domains – cultural studies and evolutionary economics – by showing that the traditional methods of the humanities (e.g. anthropological, textual and historical analysis) have explanatory force in the context of economic actions and complex-system evolutionary dynamics. The objective is to understand creative innovation as a general cultural attribute rather than one restricted only to accredited experts such as artists; thus to theorise creativity as a form of emergence for dynamic adaptive systems. In this context, change is led by ‘paradigm shifters’ – tricksters and entrepreneurs who create new meanings out of the clash of difference, including the clash of mutually untranslatable communication systems (language, media, culture).

Modern construction economics [Book Review]

The editor, Gerard de Valence, points out in the preface, this book is neither a textbook nor a guide to what is done by construction managers and construction economists – read quantity surveyors and the like. Rather, de Valence notes it comprises a collection of chapters each of which focus on matters at the industry level and, in doing so, illustrates that a substantially improved understanding of the building and construction industry can be gained beyond the economics of delivering projects. Before giving some thought to how far each of the chapters achieve this, it’s worth reflecting on the virtues of developing construction economics as its own discipline or sub-discipline in general economics and the bold manner by which de Valence is proposing we do this. That is, de Valence proposes partitioning industry and project economics - as explained in the preface and in Chapter 1. de Valence’s view that “the time seems right” for these developments is also worthy of some consideration.

Detecting common dynamics in transitory components

This paper considers VECMs for variables exhibiting cointegration and common features in the transitory components. While the presence of cointegration between the permanent components of series reduces the rank of the long-run multiplier matrix, a common feature among the transitory components leads to a rank reduction in the matrix summarizing short-run dynamics. The common feature also implies that there exists linear combinations of the first-differenced variables in a cointegrated VAR that are white noise and traditional tests focus on testing for this characteristic. An alternative, however, is to test the rank of the short-run dynamics matrix directly. Consequently, we use the literature on testing the rank of a matrix to produce some alternative test statistics. We also show that these are identical to one of the traditional tests. The performance of the different methods is illustrated in a Monte Carlo analysis which is then used to re-examine an existing empirical study. Finally, this approach is applied to provide a check for the presence of common dynamics in DSGE models.