On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization

Over the past four decades, advanced economies experienced a large growth in gross external portfolio positions. This phenomenon has been described as Financial Globalization. Over roughly the same time frame, most of these countries also saw a substantial fall in the level and variability of inflation. Many economists have conjectured that financial globalization contributed to the improved performance in the level and predictability of inflation. In this paper, we explore the causal link running in the opposite direction. We show that a monetary policy rule which reduces inflation variability leads to an increase in the size of gross external positions, both in equity and bond portfolios. This appears to be a robust prediction of open economy macro models with endogenous portfolio choice. It holds across different modeling specifications and parameterizations. We also present preliminary empirical evidence which shows a negative relationship between inflation volatility and the size of gross external positions.

‘Right Back Where We Started From’: From ‘The Classics’ To Keynes, And Back Again

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the curiously circular course followed by mainstream macroeconomic thinking in recent times. Having broken from classical orthodoxy in the late 1930s via Keynes’s General Theory, over the last three or four decades the mainstream conventional wisdom, regressing rather than progressing, has now come to embrace a conception of the working of the macroeconomy which is again of a classical, essentially pre-Keynesian, character. At the core of the analysis presented in the typical contemporary macro textbook is the (neo)classical model of the labour market, which represents employment as determined (given conditions of productivity) by the terms of labour supply. While it is allowed that changes in aggregate demand may temporarily affect output and employment, the contention is that in due course employment will automatically return to its ‘natural’ (full employment) level. Unemployment is therefore identified as a merely frictional or voluntary phenomenon: involuntary unemployment - in other words persisting demand-deficient unemployment - is entirely absent from the picture. Variations in aggregate demand are understood to have a lasting impact only on the price level, not on output and employment. This in effect amounts to a return to a Pigouvian conception such as targeted by Keynes in the General Theory. We take the view that this reversion to ideas which should by now be obsolete reflects not the discovery of logical or empirical deficiencies in the Keynes analysis, but results rather from doctrinaire blindness and failure of scholarship on account of which essential features of the Keynes theory have been overlooked or misrepresented. There is an urgent need for a critical appraisal of the current conventional macroeconomic wisdom.

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?

Econometric analysis has been inconclusive in determining the contribution that increased skills have on macroeconomic performance whilst conventional growth accounting approaches to the same problem rest on restrictive assumptions. We propose an alternative micro-to-macro method which combines elements of growth accounting and numerical general equilibrium modelling. The usefulness of this approach for applied education policy analysis is demonstrated by evaluating the macroeconomic impact on the Scottish economy of a single graduation cohort from further education colleges. We find the macroeconomic impact to be significant. From a policy point of view this supports a revival of interest in the conventional teaching role of education institutions.

Human Capital in Economic Development: From Labour Productivity to Macroeconomic Impact

Micro-econometric evidence reveals high private returns to education, most prominently in low-income countries. However, it is disputed to what extent this translates into a macro-economic impact. This paper projects the increase in human capital from higher education in Malawi and uses a dynamic applied general equilibrium model to estimate the resulting macroeconomics impact. This is contingent upon endogenous adjustments, in particular how labour productivity affects competitiveness and if this in turn stimulates exports. Choice among commonly applied labour market assumptions and trade elasticities results in widely different outcomes. Appraisal of such policies should consider not only the impact on human capital stocks, but also adjustments outside the labour market.

A multi-purpose grammar generating a multi-scale integrated analysis of Laos

In this study we propose an application of the MuSIASEM approach which is used to provide an integrated analysis of Laos across different scales. With the term “integrated analysis across scales” we mean the generation of a series of packages of quantitative indicators, characterizing the performance of the socioeconomic activities performed in Laos when considering: (i) different hierarchical levels of organization (farming systems described at the level of household, rural villages, regions of Laos, the whole country level); and (ii) different dimensions of analysis (economic dimension, social dimension, ecological dimension, technical dimension). What is relevant in this application is that the information carried out by these different packages of indicators is integrated in a system of accounting which establishes interlinkages across these indicators. This is a essential feature to study sustainability trade-offs and to build more robust scenarios of possible changes. The multi-scale integrated representation presented in this study is based on secondary data (gathered in a three year EU project – SEAtrans and integrated by other available statistical sources) and it is integrated in GIS, when dealing with the spatial representation of Laos. However, even if we use data referring to Laos, the goal of this study is not that of providing useful information about a practical policy issue of Laos, but rather, to illustrate the possibility of using a multipurpose grammar to produce an integrated set of sustainability indicators at three different levels: (i) local; (ii) meso; (iii) macro level. The technical issue addressed is the simultaneous adoption of two multi-level matrices – one referring to a characterization of human activity over a set of different categories, and another referring to a characterization of land uses over the same set of categories. In this way, it becomes possible to explain the characteristics of Laos (an integrated set of indicators defining the performance of the whole country) in relation to the characteristics of the rural Laos and urban Laos. The characteristics of rural Laos, can be explained using the characteristics of three regions defined within Laos (Northern Laos, Central Laos and Southern Laos), which in turn can be defined (using an analogous package of indicators), starting from the characteristics of three main typologies of farming systems found in the regions.

The Causal effect of education on aggregate income

Empirical studies assume that the macro Mincer return on schooling is con- stant across countries. Using a large sample of countries this paper shows that countries with a better quality of education have on average relatively higher macro Mincer coeficients. As rich countries have on average better educational quality, differences in human capital between countries are larger than has been typically assumed in the development accounting literature. Consequently, factor accumulation explains a considerably larger share of income differences across countries than what is usually found.

Mitochondria: Sovereign of inflammation?

NLRP3 inflammasome-dependent inflammatory responses are triggered by a variety of signals of host danger, including infection, tissue damage and metabolic dysregulation. How these diverse activators cause inflammasome activation is poorly understood. Recent data suggest that the mitochondria integrate these distinct signals and relay this information to the NLRP3 inflammasome. Dysfunctional mitochondria generate ROS, which is required for inflammasome activation. On the contrary, the NLRP3 inflammasome is negatively regulated by autophagy, which is a catabolic process that removes damaged or otherwise dysfunctional organelles, including mitochondria. In addition to the processing and secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-1β, NLRP3 inflammasome activation also influences cellular metabolic pathways such as glycolysis and lipogenesis. Mapping the connections between mitochondria, metabolism and inflammation is of great interest, as malfunctioning of this network is associated with many chronic inflammatory diseases.

Collective victimisation and collective guilt in the former Yugoslavia : the interplay between individual, local and societal levels

The thesis examines the impact of collective war victimization on individuals' readiness to accept or assign collective guilt for past war atrocities. As a complement to previous studies, its aim is to articulate an integrated approach to collective victimization, which distinguishes between individual-, communal-, and societal-level consequences of warfare. Building on a social representation approach, it is guided by the assumption that individuals form beliefs about a conflict through their personal experiences of victimization, communal experiences of warfare that occur in their proximal surrounding, and the mass- mediatised narratives that circulate in a society's public sphere. Four empirical studies test the hypothesis that individuals' beliefs about the conflict depend on the level and type of war experiences to which they have been exposed, that is, on informative and normative micro and macro contexts in which they are embedded. The studies have been conducted in the context of the Yugoslav wars that attended the breakup of Yugoslavia, a series of wars fought between 1991 and 2001 during which numerous war atrocities were perpetrated causing a massive victimisation of population. To examine the content and impact of war experiences at each level of analysis, the empirical studies employed various methodological strategies, from quantitative analyses of a representative public opinion survey, to qualitative analyses of media content and political speeches. Study 1 examines the impact of individual- and communal- level war experiences on individuals' acceptance and assignment of collective guilt. It further examines the impact of the type of communal level victimization: exposure to symmetric (i.e., violence that similarly affects members of different ethnic groups, including adversaries) and asymmetric violence. The main goal of Study 2 is to examine the structural and political circumstances that enhance collective guilt assignment. While the previous studies emphasize the role of past victimisation, Study 2 tests the assumption that the political demobilisation strategy employed by elites facing public discontent in the collective system-threatening circumstances can fuel out-group blame. Studies 3 and 4 have been conducted predominantly in the context of Croatia and examine rhetoric construction of the dominant politicized narrative of war in a public sphere (Study 3) and its maintenance through public delegitimization of alternative (critical) representations (Study 4). Study 4 further examines the likelihood that highly identified group members adhere to publicly delegitimized critical stances on war. - Cette thèse étudie l'impact de la victimisation collective de guerre sur la capacité des individus à accepter ou à attribuer une culpabilité collective liée à des atrocités commises en temps de guerre. En compléments aux recherches existantes, le but de ce travail est de définir une approche intégrative de la victimisation collective, qui distingue les conséquences de la guerre aux niveaux individuel, régional et sociétal. En partant de l'approche des représentations sociales, cette thèse repose sur le postulat que les individus forment des croyances sur un conflit au travers de leurs expériences personnelles de victimisation, de leurs expériences de guerre lorsque celle-ci se déroule près d'eux, ainsi qu'au travers des récits relayés par les mass media. Quatre études testent l'hypothèse que les croyances des individus dépendent des niveaux et des types d'expériences de guerre auxquels ils ont été exposés, c'est-à-dire, des contextes informatifs et normatifs, micro et macro dans lesquels ils sont insérés. Ces études ont été réalisées dans le contexte des guerres qui, entre 1991 et 2001, ont suivi la dissolution de la Yougoslavie et durant lesquelles de nombreuses atrocités de guerre ont été commises, causant une victimisation massive de la population. Afin d'étudier le contenu et l'impact des expériences de guerre sur chaque niveau d'analyse, différentes stratégies méthodologiques ont été utilisées, des analyses quantitatives sur une enquête représentative d'opinion publique aux analyses qualitatives de contenu de médias et de discours politiques. L'étude 1 étudie l'impact des expériences de guerre individuelles et régionales sur l'acceptation et l'attribution de la culpabilité collective par les individus. Elle examine aussi l'impact du type de victimisation régionale : exposition à la violence symétrique (i.e., violence qui touche les membres de différents groupes ethniques, y compris les adversaires) et asymétrique. L'étude 2 se penche sur les circonstances structurelles et politiques qui augmentent l'attribution de culpabilité collective. Alors que les recherches précédentes ont mis l'accent sur le rôle de la victimisation passée, l'étude 2 teste l'hypothèse que la stratégie de démobilisation politique utilisée par les élites pour faire face à l'insatisfaction publique peut encourager l'attribution de la culpabilité à l'exogroupe. Les études 3 et 4 étudient, principalement dans le contexte croate, la construction rhétorique du récit de guerre politisé dominant (étude 3) et son entretien à travers la délégitimation publique des représentations alternatives (critiques] (étude 4). L'étude 4 examine aussi la probabilité qu'ont les membres de groupe fortement identifiés d'adhérer à des points de vue sur la guerre critiques et publiquement délégitimés.

The inflammasomes.

Inflammasomes are molecular platforms activated upon cellular infection or stress that trigger the maturation of proinflammatory cytokines such as interleukin-1beta to engage innate immune defenses. Strong associations between dysregulated inflammasome activity and human heritable and acquired inflammatory diseases highlight the importance this pathway in tailoring immune responses. Here, we comprehensively review mechanisms directing normal inflammasome function and its dysregulation in disease. Agonists and activation mechanisms of the NLRP1, NLRP3, IPAF, and AIM2 inflammasomes are discussed. Regulatory mechanisms that potentiate or limit inflammasome activation are examined, as well as emerging links between the inflammasome and pyroptosis and autophagy.

Una explicación del conflicto social sobre energía eólica en la comarca de la Terra Alta en Cataluña

El estudio investiga las razones que explican un conflicto sobre la instalación de parques eólicos en Terra Alta, una comarca rural de Cataluña. Identificamos tres razones principales. Primero, y de acuerdo con el marco conceptual de ecología política, el conflicto eólico forma parte de un conflicto más generalizado sobre la ‘macro-concentración’ de instalaciones energéticas en el sur de Cataluña que generan energía y beneficios económicos principalmente para el centro del desarrollo económico catalán. Segundo, el impacto paisajístico de los proyectos eólicos choca con iniciativas locales que impulsan el paisaje como un activo valioso capaz de sustentar la vida en la comarca. Por último, desequilibrios de poder en el sistema formal de toma de decisiones sobre parques eólicos impiden la inclusión de valores locales como criterios en el proceso de toma de decisiones y eso también genera conflicto. Para un desarrollo sostenible de energía eólica, la importancia del potencial eólico como criterio principal de localización debe ser reevaluada, y la negociación de la distribución de beneficios debe hacerse en la forma más abierta posible.

Determination and control of schistosomiasis

The subject of this conference reflects the scientific community's interest in seeking to understand the complex causal web whose various social, economic, and biological components interact in the production and reproduction of schistosomiasis and its control in relation to community participation. From the onset, the author stresses the impossibility of dealing separately with community participation, as if social components were just one more "weapon" in the arsenal for schistosomiasis control. This study begins with a brief historical review of the 71 years of control activities with this endemic disease, stressing the enormous efforts and huge expenditures in this field vis-à-vis the limited results, despite the extraordinary technological development of specific, classical control inputs such as new treatment drugs and molluscicides. The article then discusses the various strategies used in control programs, emphasizing ideological consistencies and contradictions. Interactions at the macro and micro levels are discussed, as are the determinants and risk factors involved in producing the disease's endemicity. Unequal occupation of space leaves the segregated portion of the population exposed to extremely favorable conditions for transmission of the disease. This raises the issue of how to control an endemic disease which is so closely linked to the way of life imposed on the population. The study challenges the classical control model and suggests an alternative model now undergoing medium-term investigation in the States of Espirito Santo, and Pernambuco, Brazil. The author concludes that we do not need new strategies, but a new control model, contrary to the prevailing classical model in both concept and practice. From the conceptual point of view, the new model mentioned above is different from others in that schistosomiasis control is seen from a social perspective stressing the population's accumulated knowledge in addition to the building of shared knowledge. The model's praxis has the following characteristics: (1) it is integrated with and financed by research agencies and health services; (2) it operates at the local health services level; (3) use of molluscicides has been eliminated; (4) emphasis is given to individual medical treatment and improvement of sanitary conditions.

The NAD biosynthesis inhibitor APO866 has potent antitumor activity against hematologic malignancies.

APO866 inhibits nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase (NMPRTase), a key enzyme involved in nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) biosynthesis from the natural precursor nicotinamide. Intracellular NAD is essential for cell survival, and NAD depletion resulting from APO866 treatment elicits tumor cell death. Here, we determine the in vitro and in vivo sensitivities of hematologic cancer cells to APO866 using a panel of cell lines (n = 45) and primary cells (n = 32). Most cancer cells (acute myeloid leukemia [AML], acute lymphoblastic leukemia [ALL], mantle cell lymphoma [MCL], chronic lymphocytic leukemia [CLL], and T-cell lymphoma), but not normal hematopoietic progenitor cells, were sensitive to low concentrations of APO866 as measured in cytotoxicity and clonogenic assays. Treatment with APO866 decreased intracellular NAD and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) at 24 hours and 48 to72 hours, respectively. The NAD depletion led to cell death. At 96 hours, APO866-mediated cell death occurred in a caspase-independent mode, and was associated with mitochondrial dysfunction and autophagy. Further, in vivo administration of APO866 as a single agent prevented and abrogated tumor growth in animal models of human AML, lymphoblastic lymphoma, and leukemia without significant toxicity to the animals. The results support the potential of APO866 for treating hematologic malignancies.

Role of NOX enzymes in phagocyte response and signaling upon Chlamydia infection

Les membres de l'ordre des Chlamydiales peuvent infecter un choix étendu d'animaux, insectes, et protistes. Comme toutes bactéries intracellulaires obligatoires, les Chlamydiales ont besoin d'une cellule hôte pour se répliquer. Chaque fois qu'une cellule est infectée une lutte commence entre les mécanismes de défense de la cellule et l'arsenal de facteurs de virulence de la bactérie. Dans cette thèse nous nous sommes intéressés à déterminer le rôle de deux mécanismes de l'immunité innée de l'hôte. En premier, nous avons étudié les NADPH oxidases, une source de molécules superoxydantes (MSO). Leur rôle dans la restriction de la réplication de Waddlia chondrophila et Estrella iausannensis a été étudié dans l'organisme modèle Dictyostelium discoideum et les macrophages humains. Différentes protéines Nox étaient nécessaires pour contrôler la réplication de W. chondrophila ou E. Iausannensis. De plus, nous avons déterminé que parmi les Chlamydiales, cinq espèces possédaient une catalase. Cette enzyme peut dégrader l'eau oxygénée, une MSO. L'activité de la catalase a été démontrée in vitro et dans les corps élémentaires. Avant de pouvoir étudier le rôle de NOX2 dans des macrophages infectés avec E. Iausannensis, nous avons dû établir la capacité de la bactérie à se répliquer clans les macrophages avec son trafic intracellulaire. Le deuxième mécanisme d'immunité innée que nous avons étudié est l'autophagie. Dans les cellules infectées l'autophagie permet de digérer les bactéries envahissantes. Deux protéines de la voie autophagique (Atg1 et Atg8) jouent un rôle dans la restriction de la croissance de W. chondrophila dans D. discoideum. D'avantage d'études sur l'immunité innée et les bactéries apparentés aux Chlamydia sont indispensables, car les réponses paraissent être spécifiques pour chaque espèce. - Members of the Chlamydiales order are able to infect a large variety of animals, insects, and protists. These obligate intracellular bacteria require a host cell for replication. Each time a cell is infected a struggle begins between the virulence arsenal of the bacteria and the defense mechanisms activated by the host. Each bacterial species will exhibit a selection of virulence factors that will allow it to overcome the defense of the host in some species, but not others. In this thesis we were interested in dissecting the role of two host innate immunity mechanisms. First we determined the role of NADPH oxidases, a source of reactive oxygen species (ROS), in restricting replication of Waddlia chondrophila and EstreHa lausannensis in the model organism Dictyostelium discoideum and human macrophages. Different Nox proteins were required to restrict growth of W. chondrophila and E. lausannensis. Additionally, we determined that five Chlamydia- related bacterial species encode for catalase, an enzyme that is able to degrade hydrogen peroxide, a ROS. The activity of the catalase was demonstrated in vitro and in elementary bodies. To study the role of NOX2 in macrophages for E. lausannensis we first had to determine the ability of E. lausannensis to grow in macrophages. Besides demonstrating its replication we also determined the intracellular trafficking of E. lausannensis. The second innate immunity mechanism studied was autophagy. Through autophagy bacteria can be targeted to degradation. Atg1 and Atg8, two autophagic proteins appeared restrict W. chondrophila replication in D. discoideum. More studies on innate immunity and Chlamydia-related bacteria are required. It appears that the responses to innate immunity are species specific and it will be difficult to generalize data obtained for W. chondrophila to the Chlamydiales order.

Enhancement of autophagic flux after neonatal cerebral hypoxia-ischemia and its region-specific relationship to apoptotic mechanisms.

The multiplicity of cell death mechanisms induced by neonatal hypoxia-ischemia makes neuroprotective treatment against neonatal asphyxia more difficult to achieve. Whereas the roles of apoptosis and necrosis in such conditions have been studied intensively, the implication of autophagic cell death has only recently been considered. Here, we used the most clinically relevant rodent model of perinatal asphyxia to investigate the involvement of autophagy in hypoxic-ischemic brain injury. Seven-day-old rats underwent permanent ligation of the right common carotid artery, followed by 2 hours of hypoxia. This condition not only increased autophagosomal abundance (increase in microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3-11 level and punctuate labeling) but also lysosomal activities (cathepsin D, acid phosphatase, and beta-N-acetylhexosaminidase) in cortical and hippocampal CA3-damaged neurons at 6 and 24 hours, demonstrating an increase in the autophagic flux. In the cortex, this enhanced autophagy may be related to apoptosis since some neurons presenting a high level of autophagy also expressed apoptotic features, including cleaved caspase-3. On the other hand, enhanced autophagy in CA3 was associated with a more purely autophagic cell death phenotype. In striking contrast to CA3 neurons, those in CA1 presented only a minimal increase in autophagy but strong apoptotic characteristics. These results suggest a role of enhanced autophagy in delayed neuronal death after severe hypoxia-ischemia that is differentially linked to apoptosis according to the cerebral region.