Economic Booms, Trade Deficits, and Economic Policy

Many economic booms have been accompanied by real exchange rate appreciations, large trade defcits -which have sometimes persisted after the return to the initial exchange rate parity- and a deteriorating traded sector. Those circumstances have typically raised the question of the de-sirability of some stabilization policy. We show that the dynamics induced by an expected productivity shock in an economy where the capital stock is non-mobile across sectors, match those circumstances. Furthermore, we obtain that credit market imperfections tend to exacerbate trade deficits, and to cause an inefficient capacity reduction in the traded sector. Some stabilization policies are explored.

Hemoglobin curves during pregnancy before and after fortification of flours with iron

Objective: To assess the level of hemoglobin-Hb during pregnancy before and after fortification of flours with iron. Method: A cross-sectional study with data from 12,119 pregnant women attended at a public prenatal from five macro regions of Brazil. The sample was divided into two groups: Before-fortification (birth before June/2004) and After-fortification (last menstruation after June/2005). Hb curves were compared with national and international references. Polynomial regression models were built, with a significance level of 5%. Results: Although the higher levels of Hb in all gestational months after-fortification, the polynomial regression did not show the fortification effect (p=0.3). Curves in the two groups were above the references in the first trimester, with following decrease and stabilization at the end of pregnancy. Conclusion: Although the fortification effect was not confirmed, the study presents variation of Hb levels during pregnancy, which is important for assistencial practice and evaluation of public policies.


Nursing intervention bundle for enteral nutrition in intensive care: a collective construction

Objective The collective construction of a nursing intervention bundle for patients in critical care in the hospital receiving enteral nutrition therapy, supported by evidence-based practice. Method A qualitative convergent-care study with 24 nursing professionals in an intensive care unit of a public hospital in Santa Catarina. Data collection was performed from May to August 2013, with semi-structured interviews and discussion groups. Results Four interventions emerged that constituted the bundle: bedside pH monitoring to confirm the position of the tube; stabilization of the tube; enteric position of the tube; and maintaining the head of the bed elevated at 30° to 45°.
 Conclusion The interventions chosen neither required additional professional workload nor extra charges to the institution, which are identified as improving the adoption of the bundle by nursing professionals at the ICU.

Quand faut-il opérer une fracture diaphysaire de l'humérus [When to operate humeral shaft fractures?].

Most humeral shaft fractures are amenable to nonoperative treatment. According to shoulder and elbow functions, humeral shaft malunions are well tolerated with deformities up to 30 degrees of varus, 20 degrees of anterior bowing and 15 degrees of internal rotation. Limitations to nonoperative treatment do exist. Open fractures with extensive soft-tissue lesions, penetrating open fractures with neurological or vascular impairment are best managed with immediate stabilization. However the appropriate treatment strategy has to be adapted for each patient. Patient expectations, fracture propensity for nonunion, ability to tolerate nonoperative treatment for medical or social reasons should be taken into consideration for operative indication.

Democratisation via elections in an African 'narco state'?

Recent development cooperation with Guinea-Bissau, focussing on good governance, state-building and conflict prevention, did not contribute to democratization nor to the stabilization of volatile political, military and economic structures. Both the portrayal of Guinea-Bissau as failed ‘narco state' as well as Western aid meant to stabilize this state by multi-party elections are based on doubtful concepts and assumptions. Certainly, the impact of drug trafficking could endanger democratization and state-building if continued unchecked. However, the most pressing need is not state-building, facilitated by external aid, yet poorly rooted in the social and political fabric of the country, but nation-building from below as a pre-condition for the creation of viable state institutions.

Soil and water conservation strategies and impact on sustainable livelihood in Cape Verde – Case study of Ribeira Seca watershed

Cape Verde, located off the coast of Senegal in western Africa, is a volcanic archipelago where a combination of human, climatic, geomorphologic and pedologic factors has led to extensive degradation of the soils. Like other Sahelian countries, Cape Verde has suffered the effects of desertification through the years, threatening the livelihood of the islands population and its fragile environment. In fact, the steep slopes in the ore agricultural islands, together with semi-arid and arid environments, characterized by an irregular and poorly distributed rainy season, with high intensity rainfall events, make dryland production a challenge. To survive in these fragile conditions, the stabilization of the farming systems and the maintenance of sustainable yields have become absolute priorities, making the islands an erosion control laboratory. Soil and water conservation strategies have been a centerpiece of the government0s agricultural policies for the last half century. Aiming to maintain the soil in place and the water inside the soil, the successive governments of Cape Verde have implemented a number of soil and water conservation techniques, the most common ones being terraces, half moons, live barriers, contour rock walls, contour furrows and microcatchments, check dams and reforestation with drought resistant species. The soil and water conservation techniques implemented have contributed to the improvement of the economical and environmental conditions of the treated landscape, making crop production possible, consequently, improving the livelihood of the people living on the islands. In this paper, we survey the existing soil and water conservation techniques, analyze their impact on the livelihood condition of the population through a thorough literature review and field monitoring using a semi-quantitative methodology and evaluate their effectiveness and impact on crop yield in the Ribeira Seca watershed. A brief discussion is given on the cost and effectiveness of the techniques to reduce soil erosion and to promote rainfall infiltration. Finally, we discuss the critical governance factors that lead to the successful implementation of such strategy in a country with scarce natural resources.

Effective Shoulder Design and Maintenance, 2007

Granular shoulders are an important element of the transportation system and are constantly subjected to performance problems due to wind- and water-induced erosion, rutting, edge drop-off, and slope irregularities. Such problems can directly affect drivers’ safety and often require regular maintenance. The present research study was undertaken to investigate the factors contributing to these performance problems and to propose new ideas to design and maintain granular shoulders while keeping ownership costs low. This report includes observations made during a field reconnaissance study, findings from an effort to stabilize the granular and subgrade layer at six shoulder test sections, and the results of a laboratory box study where a shoulder section overlying a soft foundation layer was simulated. Based on the research described in this report, the following changes are proposed to the construction and maintenance methods for granular shoulders: • A minimum CBR value for the granular and subgrade layer should be selected to alleviate edge drop-off and rutting formation. • For those constructing new shoulder sections, the design charts provided in this report can be used as a rapid guide based on an allowable rut depth. The charts can also be used to predict the behavior of existing shoulders. • In the case of existing shoulder sections overlying soft foundations, the use of geogrid or fly ash stabilization proved to be an effective technique for mitigating shoulder rutting.

A morphometric study of mechanotransductively induced dermal neovascularization.

BACKGROUND:: Mechanical stretch has been shown to induce vascular remodeling and increase vessel density, but the pathophysiologic mechanisms and the morphologic changes induced by tensile forces to dermal vessels are poorly understood. METHODS:: A custom computer-controlled stretch device was designed and applied to the backs of C57BL/6 mice (n = 38). Dermal and vascular remodeling was studied over a 7-day period. Corrosion casting and three-dimensional scanning electron microscopy and CD31 staining were performed to analyze microvessel morphology. Hypoxia was assessed by immunohistochemistry. Western blot analysis of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and mRNA expression of VEGF receptors was performed. RESULTS:: Skin stretching was associated with increased angiogenesis as demonstrated by CD31 staining and vessel corrosion casting where intervascular distance and vessel diameter were decreased (p < 0.01). Immediately after stretching, VEGF dimers were increased. Messenger RNA expression of VEGF receptor 1, VEGF receptor 2, neuropilin 1, and neuropilin 2 was increased starting as early as 2 hours after stretching. Highly proliferating epidermal cells induced epidermal hypoxia starting at day 3 (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS:: Identification of significant hypoxic cells occurred after identification of neovessels, suggesting an alternative mechanism. Increased expression of angiogenic receptors and stabilization of VEGF dimers may be involved in a mechanotransductive, prehypoxic induction of neovascularization.

Labor markets and monetary policy: A new-Keynesian model with unemployement

We construct a utility-based model of fluctuations, with nominal rigidities andunemployment, and draw its implications for the unemployment-inflation trade-off and for the conduct of monetary policy.We proceed in two steps. We first leave nominal rigidities aside. We show that,under a standard utility specification, productivity shocks have no effect onunemployment in the constrained efficient allocation. We then focus on theimplications of alternative real wage setting mechanisms for fluctuations in un-employment. We show the role of labor market frictions and real wage rigiditiesin determining the effects of productivity shocks on unemployment.We then introduce nominal rigidities in the form of staggered price setting byfirms. We derive the relation between inflation and unemployment and discusshow it is influenced by the presence of labor market frictions and real wagerigidities. We show the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment stabilization, and its dependence on labor market characteristics. We draw the implications for optimal monetary policy.

With a bang, not a whimper: Pricking Germany's "stock market bubble" in 1927 and the slide into depression

In May 1927, the German central bank intervenedindirectly to reduce lending to equity investors.The crash that followed ended the only stockmarket boom during Germany s relative stabilization 1924-28. This paper examines thefactors that lead to the intervention as well asits consequences. We argue that genuine concernabout the exuberant level of the stock market,in addition to worries about an inflow offoreign funds, tipped the scales in favour ofintervention. The evidence strongly suggeststhat the German central bank under HjalmarSchacht was wrong to be concerned aboutstockprices-there was no bubble. Also, theReichsbank was mistaken in its belief thata fall in the market would reduce theimportance of short-term foreign borrowing,and help to ease conditions in the money market.The misguided intervention had important realeffects. Investment suffered, helping to tipGermany into depression.

Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union

We lay out a tractable model for fiscal and monetary policy analysis in a currency union, and study its implications for the optimal design of such policies. Monetary policy is conducted by a common central bank, which sets the interest rate for the union as a whole. Fiscal policy is implemented at the countrylevel, through the choice of government spending. The model incorporates country-specific shocks and nominal rigidities. Under our assumptions, the optimal cooperative policy arrangement requires that inflation be stabilized at the union level by the common central bank, while fiscal policy is used by each country for stabilization purposes. By contrast, when the fiscal authorities act in a non-coordinated way, their joint actions lead to a suboptimal outcome, and make the common central bank face a trade-off between inflation and output gap stabilization at the union level.

Firm-specific investment, sticky prices and the Taylor principle

According to the Taylor principle a central bank should adjust the nominal interest rate by more than one-for-one in response to changes in current inflation. Most of the existing literature supports the view that by following this simple recommendation a central bank can avoid being a source of unnecessary fluctuations in economic activity. The present paper shows that this conclusion is not robust with respect to the modelling of capital accumulation. We use our insights to discuss the desirability of alternative interest raterules. Our results suggest a reinterpretation of monetary policy under Volcker and Greenspan: The empirically plausible characterization of monetary policy can explain the stabilization of macroeconomic outcomes observed in the early eighties for the US economy. The Taylor principle in itself cannot.

Economic booms, trade deficits and economic policy

Many economic booms have been accompanied by realexchange rate appreciations, large trade defcits -whichhave sometimes persisted after the return to the initialexchange rate parity- and a deteriorating traded sector.Those circumstances have typically raised the questionof the de-sirability of some stabilization policy. We show that the dynamics induced by an expectedproductivity shock in an economy where the capital stockis non-mobile across sectors, match those circumstances.Furthermore, we obtain that credit market imperfectionstend to exacerbate trade deficits, and to cause aninefficient capacity reduction in the traded sector.Some stabilization policies are explored.

Update on skin cancer incidence and mortality in Europe

The epidemiology of skin cancer shows interplay between host susceptibility, (ultraviolet) environment, socioeconomical conditions and behavioural patterns. Its etiology is not yet fully elucidated and reveals intriguing questions. Fair-skinned populations have experienced over the last 60 years a rapid increase in the incidence of melanoma which is unparalleled by any other cancer, although signs of levelling off and stabilization in incidence have recently been observed in some countries. Despite many primary prevention and early detection campaigns over the last decades in Europe, decreases in melanoma mortality are modest and limited to a few countries. Further, reduction in the incidence of thick melanomas has not yet been evidenced. In this presentation, drivers for the incidence and mortality trends of skin cancer, with a strong focus on melanoma, its most lethal form, will be discussed.

Generation of the primary hair follicle pattern.

Hair follicles are spaced apart from one another at regular intervals through the skin. Although follicles are predominantly epidermal structures, classical tissue recombination experiments indicated that the underlying dermis defines their location during development. Although many molecules involved in hair follicle formation have been identified, the molecular interactions that determine the emergent property of pattern formation have remained elusive. We have used embryonic skin cultures to dissect signaling responses and patterning outcomes as the skin spatially organizes itself. We find that ectodysplasin receptor (Edar)-bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) signaling and transcriptional interactions are central to generation of the primary hair follicle pattern, with restriction of responsiveness, rather than localization of an inducing ligand, being the key driver in this process. The crux of this patterning mechanism is rapid Edar-positive feedback in the epidermis coupled with induction of dermal BMP4/7. The BMPs in turn repress epidermal Edar and hence follicle fate. Edar activation also induces connective tissue growth factor, an inhibitor of BMP signaling, allowing BMP action only at a distance from their site of synthesis. Consistent with this model, transgenic hyperactivation of Edar signaling leads to widespread overproduction of hair follicles. This Edar-BMP activation-inhibition mechanism appears to operate alongside a labile prepattern, suggesting that Edar-mediated stabilization of beta-catenin active foci is a key event in determining definitive follicle locations.