Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

A Lateglacial archaeological site in the far north-west of Europe at Rubha Port an t-Seilich, Isle of Islay, western Scotland: Ahrensburgian-style artefacts, absolute dating and geoarchaeology

The exact pattern, process and timing of the human re-colonization of northern Europe after the end of the last Ice Age remain controversial. Recent research has provided increasingly early dates for at least pioneer explorations of latitudes above 54°N in many regions, yet the far north-west of the European landmass, Scotland, has remained an unexplained exception to this pattern. Although the recently described Hamburgian artefacts from Howburn and an assemblage belonging to the arch-backed point complex from Kilmelfort Cave have established at least a sporadic human presence during earlier stages of the Lateglacial Interstadial, we currently lack evidence for Younger Dryas/Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) activity other than rare stray finds that have been claimed to be of Ahrensburgian affiliation but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We here report the discovery of chipped stone artefacts with technological and typological characteristics similar to those of the continental Ahrensburgian at a locality in western Scotland. A preliminary analysis of associated tephra, pollen and phytoliths, along with microstratigraphic analysis, suggest the artefacts represent one or more episodes of human activity that fall within the second half of GS-1 and the Preboreal period

Just add water and salt: the optimisation of petrogenic hydrocarbon biodegradation in soils from semi-arid Barrow Island, Western Australia

We investigated the potential of soil moisture and nutrient amendments to enhance the biodegradation of oil in the soils from an ecologically unique semi-arid island. This was achieved using a series of controlled laboratory incubations where moisture or nutrient levels were experimentally manipulated. Respired CO2 increased sharply with moisture amendment reflecting the severe moisture limitation of these porous and semi-arid soils. The greatest levels of CO2 respiration were generally obtained with a soil pore water saturation of 50–70%. Biodegradation in these nutrient poor soils was also promoted by the moderate addition of a nitrogen fertiliser. Increased biodegradation was greater at the lowest amendment rate (100 mg N kg−1 soil) than the higher levels (500 or 1,000 mg N kg−1 soil), suggesting the higher application rates may introduce N toxicity. Addition of phosphorous alone had little effect, but a combined 500 mg N and 200 mg P kg−1 soil amendment led to a synergistic increase in CO2 respiration (3.0×), suggesting P can limit the biodegradation of hydrocarbons following exogenous N amendment.

The development of soil organic matter in restored biodiverse Jarrah forests of South-Western Australia as determined by ASE and GCMS

Background, aim and scope Soil organic matter (SOM) is known to increase with time as landscapes recover after a major disturbance; however, little is known about the evolution of the chemistry of SOM in reconstructed ecosystems. In this study, we assessed the development of SOM chemistry in a chronosequence (space for time substitution) of restored Jarrah forest sites in Western Australia. Materials and methods Replicated samples were taken at the surface of the mineral soil as well as deeper in the profile at sites of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 years of age. A molecular approach was developed to distinguish and quantify numerous individual compounds in SOM. This used accelerated solvent extraction in conjunction with gas chromatography mass spectrometry. A novel multivariate statistical approach was used to assess changes in accelerated solvent extraction (ASE)-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GCMS) spectra. This enabled us to track SOM developmental trajectories with restoration time. Results Results showed total carbon concentrations approached that of native forests soils by 17 years of restoration. Using the relate protocol in PRIMER, we demonstrated an overall linear relationship with site age at both depths, indicating that changes in SOM chemistry were occurring. Conclusions The surface soils were seen to approach native molecular compositions while the deeper soil retained a more stable chemical signature, suggesting litter from the developing diverse plant community has altered SOM near the surface. Our new approach for assessing SOM development, combining ASE-GCMS with illuminating multivariate statistical analysis, holds great promise to more fully develop ASE for the characterisation of SOM.

Soil carbon and litter development along a reconstructed biodiverse forest chronosequence of South-Western Australia

Soil organic matter (SOM) increases with time as landscape is restored. Studying SOM development along restored forest chronosequences would be useful in clarifying some of the uncertainties in quantifying C turnover rates with respect to forest clearance and ensuing restoration. The development of soil organic matter in the mineral soils was studied at four depths in a 16-year-old restored jarrah forest chronosequence. The size-separated SOM fractionation along with δ13C isotopic shift was utilised to resolve the soil C temporal and spatial changes with developing vegetation. The restored forest chronosequence revealed several important insights into how soil C is developing with age. Litter accumulation outpaced the native forest levels in 12 years after restoration. The surface soils, in general, showed increase in total C with age, but this trend was not clearly observed at lower depths. C accumulation was observed with increasing restoration age in all three SOM size-fractions in the surface 0–2 cm depth. These biodiverse forests show a trend towards accumulating C in recalcitrant stable forms, but only in the surface 0–2 cm mineral soil. A significant reverse trend was observed for the moderately labile SOM fraction for lower depths with increasing restoration age. Correlating the soil δ13C with total C concentration revealed the re-establishment of the isotopically depleted labile to enriched refractory C continuum with soil depth for the older restored sites. This implied that from a pedogenic perspective, the restored soils are developing towards the original native soil carbon profile.

Seedling response to phosphate addition and inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizas and the implications for old-field restoration in Western Australia

We predicted that P-fertiliser residues will limit the establishment of native plant species and their mycorrhizas to old-fields in the wheat-growing region (i.e. the wheatbelt) of Western Australia. To test this prediction, we assessed the growth and P uptake of seedlings of three native plant species to phosphate addition and inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizas (AM) in a pot study. The native plant species were Acacia acuminata Benth. (Mimosaceae), Eucalyptus loxophleba Benth. subsp. loxophleba (Myrtaceae) and Hakea preissii Meisn. (Proteaceae); and each pot contained one seedling. P was added to field soil to mimic pre-agricultural (P0), old-field (P1) and 10 times old-field (P10) soils. AM inoculant, which was a mix of Scutellospora calospora (Nicolson and Gerdemann) Walker and Sanders, Glomus intraradices Schenck and Smith and Glomus mosseae (Nicolson and Gerdemann) Gerdemann and Trappe, was added to half of the pots. After 12 weeks, the biomass and P uptake of the mycorrhizal A. acuminata were greater than those of the non-mycorrhizal plants across all P treatments. Plant biomass decreased significantly with increasing P addition, yet this species was apparently unable to suppress its mycorrhizal colonisation at high P despite this reduction in growth. In contrast, mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal E. loxophleba subsp. loxophleba were of a similar biomass after 12 weeks; maximum biomass was attained at intermediate (old-field) levels of P. P uptake increased with increasing P supply, beyond that required to attain maximum biomass. AM did not form on H. preissii. P uptake increased with increasing P supply for this species also. Overall, it is the apparent inability of these species to down-regulate P uptake rather than a lack of mycorrhizal symbiosis that will constrain their establishment on wheatbelt old-fields.

English language teaching and educational reform in Western China: a knowledge management perspective

This study examines the impact of a large-scale UK-based teacher development programme on innovation and change in English language education in Western China within a knowledge management (KM) framework. Questionnaire data were collected from 229 returnee teachers in 15 cohorts. Follow-up interviews and focus groups were conducted with former participants, middle and senior managers, and teachers who had not participated in the UK programme. The results showed evidence of knowledge creation and amplification at individual, group and inter-organizational levels. However, the present study also identified knowledge creation potential through the more effective organization of follow-up at the national level, particularly for the returnee teachers. It is argued that the KM framework might offer a promising alternative to existing models and metaphors of Continuing Professional Development (CPD).

Knowledge transfer of the Western concept of ‘quality’

This paper addresses one of the issues in contemporary globalisation theory: the extent to which there is ‘one best way’ in which business can be done and organisations managed. It uses Czarniawska’s ‘Travels of Ideas’ model as an organising framework to present and understand how the concept of ‘Quality’, so important in contemporary approaches to manufacturing & services, and their management, travelled to, and impinged on, a newly opened vehicle assembly plant in Poland. The extent to which new meanings were mutually created in the process of translation is discussed, using ethnographic reporting and analysis techniques commonly used in diffusion research. Parallels between the process of translation as an idea becomes embedded into a new cultural location, and the processes which contemporary research has identified as important to organisational learning, are briefly discussed in conclusion.