The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Punishing Local Incumbents for the Local Economy

After decennia of research on economic voting, it is now established that the state of the economy affects voting behaviour. Nevertheless, this conclusion is the result of a focus on predominantly national-level economies and national-level elections. In this paper, we show that at a local level as well, mechanisms of accountability linked to the economy are at work. The local economic context affected voting behaviour in the 2012 Belgian municipal elections, with a stronger increase of unemployment rates in their municipality significantly decreasing the probability that voters choose an incumbent party. Additionally, we observe that voters are not opportunistically voting for incumbents who lower tax rates. Instead, voters seem to be holding local incumbents accountable for local economic conditions. We hence conclude that voters care about economic outcomes, not about what specific policies are implemented to reach these outcomes.

Transfert de voix, flux électoraux et électeurs mobiles

Ruth Dassonneville et Pierre Baudewyns révèlent que, derrière les pourcentages des résultats électoraux, se cachent bien des mouvements et transferts d’électeurs. Ils se penchent sur la « volatilité nette », c’est-à-dire sur la somme des avancées et reculs des différents partis. Ils regardent également au niveau des individus (les électeurs) et observent que les électeurs et électrices votent différemment en 2014. Sur la base de ces analyses des transferts de voix, les auteurs démontrent également que, du côté wallon, on a assisté à un certain éparpillement des votes, surtout entre les partis de gauche. En Flandre, par contre, les électeurs et électrices de centre-droit ont fortement convergé vers la N-VA. Les auteurs établissent aussi un portrait précis de qui sont les électeurs stables (« stayers ») et les électeurs mobiles (« movers »).

Reflexiones sobre ideología e interpelación en las elecciones presidenciales de 2015 en Argentina

En este trabajo abordamos del papel de la ideología y distintas formas de interpelación en las elecciones presidenciales de Argentina en 2015.Partimos de dos imputaciones cruzadas: la que surge del kirchnerismo, enfatizando el rol de los medios de comunicación masivos sobre los sectores medios y populares, y la respuesta progresista que insiste en una serie de motivos materiales de insatisfacción de estos sectores, a los que el kirchnerismo, afectado por una "miopía política", no atendió durante su gobierno y a los que desconoció en su discurso de campaña electoral, dejándolos librados a la interpelación por una forma de "individualismo miope". Insistimos en que estas atribuciones cruzadas de ideologismo constituyen un campo ideológico por sí mismo, cuyo presupuesto común es el individualismo. A partir de allí intentamos comprender las condiciones histórico-políticas en la Argentina del siglo XX que hacen del individualismo una evidencia ideológica fundante en la Argentina del siglo XXI

Reflexiones sobre ideología e interpelación en las elecciones presidenciales de 2015 en Argentina

En este trabajo abordamos del papel de la ideología y distintas formas de interpelación en las elecciones presidenciales de Argentina en 2015.Partimos de dos imputaciones cruzadas: la que surge del kirchnerismo, enfatizando el rol de los medios de comunicación masivos sobre los sectores medios y populares, y la respuesta progresista que insiste en una serie de motivos materiales de insatisfacción de estos sectores, a los que el kirchnerismo, afectado por una "miopía política", no atendió durante su gobierno y a los que desconoció en su discurso de campaña electoral, dejándolos librados a la interpelación por una forma de "individualismo miope". Insistimos en que estas atribuciones cruzadas de ideologismo constituyen un campo ideológico por sí mismo, cuyo presupuesto común es el individualismo. A partir de allí intentamos comprender las condiciones histórico-políticas en la Argentina del siglo XX que hacen del individualismo una evidencia ideológica fundante en la Argentina del siglo XXI

Girls of Liberty : The Struggle for Suffrage in Mandatory Palestine /

Presents the story of the struggle for women's right to vote in Mandatory Palestine. Includes portraits of individual leaders, discusses the Zionist roots of feminism and nationalism, the views of the Ultra Orthodox Jewish sector, and comparative information on contemporary suffrage movements elsewhere in the world. This title was made Open Access by libraries from around the world through Knowledge Unlatched.

Abstract of the Proceedings of the Boards of Supervisors of the county of Chautauqua : from its organization to the year 1867 inclusive.

"Together with a brief historical sketch of the earlier boards and their members; also, a list of county officers, the vote of the several towns, at each presidential election, etc. compiled ... to 1820 ... by Hon. Elial T. Foote. Compiled from 1820-1867 from the original records, by Lucius Hurlbut ... "

Town records of Brookline, Massachusetts.

Includes indexes.

Mixed-Member Electoral Systems in Constitutional Context : Taiwan, Japan, and Beyond /

After the electoral reform in 1994, Japan saw a gradual evolution from a multi-party system toward a two-party system over the course of five House of Representatives election cycles. In contrast, after Taiwan’s constitutional amendment in 2005, a two-party system emerged in the first post-reform legislative election in 2008. Critically, however, Taiwan’s president is directly elected while Japan’s prime minister is indirectly elected. The contributors conclude that the higher the payoffs of holding the executive office and the greater degree of cross-district coordination required to win it, the stronger the incentives for elites to form and stay in the major parties. In such a context, a country will move rapidly toward a two-party system. In Part II, the contributors apply this theoretical logic to other countries with mixed-member systems to demonstrate its generality. They find the effect of executive competition on legislative electoral rules in countries as disparate as Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, Bolivia, and Russia. The findings presented in this book have important implications for political reform. Often, reformers are motivated by high hopes of solving some political problems and enhancing the quality of democracy. But, as this group of scholars demonstrates, electoral reform alone is not a panacea. Whether and to what extent it achieves the advocated goals depends not only on the specification of new electoral rules per se but also on the political context—and especially the constitutional framework—within which such rules are embedded.

Optical scan manual of instructions for Illinois election judges.

" ... may be duplicated or sections may be rewritten to conform to local specifications. Any modified manual must be consistent with the Illinois Election Code and submitted to the State Board of Elections for approval prior to distribution."

Optical scan manual of instructions for Illinois election judges.

"...may be duplicated or sections may be rewritten to conform to local specifications. Any modified manual must be consistent with the Illinois Election Code and submitted to the State Board of Elections for approval prior to distribution."

Optical scan manual of instructions for Illinois election judges.

The instructions in this manual describe the statutory responsibilities of election judges and their duties on Election Day. ... Included in this manual are step-by-step instructions which describe in detail the procedures to be followed before the polls open, during voting hours, and after the polls close. This manual also includes information on voter coding, who can vote, pollwatchers rights and limitations, challenging a person's right to vote, voter assistance and instruction, processing absentee ballots, and remaking damaged and overvoted ballot cards. In addition, this manual reflects the many changes brought about by the Help America Vote Act of 2002 and Senate Bill 428, PA 0574.

Optical scan manual of instructions for Illinois election judges.

Election judges serve a vital role in protecting the rights of voters. They are responsible for ensuring that the electoral process is administered fairly and in accordance with federal and state election laws. This manual of instructions has been prepared by the State Board of Elections to assist the election judges with the administration of their duties in accordance with Illinois statutes. The instructions in this manual describe the statutory responsibilities of election judges and their duties on Election Day. ... Included in this manual are step-by-step instructions which describe in detail the procedures to be followed before the polls open, during voting hours, and after the polls close....In addition, this manual reflects the many changes brought about by the Help America Vote Act of 2002 and Senate Bill 428, PA 0574. These changes include provisional voting, eligbility requirements for serving as a pollwatcher, campaign free zones and other processes encountered on Election Day.

Speak out.

Prepared for grades 3-6.