Neutrosophic information fusion applied to the options market

In this paper we basically make two propositions - firstly a non-linear process that is primarily fuelled by mass cognitive dissonance could generate systematic deviations between the theoretical and market prices of long-term options, and secondly such deviations are best reconciled in terms of neutrosophic rather than ruled-based reasoning, especially in the context of the users of automated trading systems designed to generate trading signals based on analysis of information  from conflicting sources.

Time-varying dependence in the intraday AUS/USD spot market

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar this study examines the distribution of quotes and returns across the 24 hour trading "day". Employing statistical methods for measuring long-tenn dependence in time-series we find evidence of time-varying dependence and volatility that aligns with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

Time-varying hedge ratios: an application to the Indian stock futures market

This paper investigates time-varying optimal hedge ratios in individual stock futures markets in India. The analysis employs data on individual stock futures from an unexplored but highly traded (both in terms of volume and quantity) emerging market. The hedge ratios derived in this study incorporate mean reversion in volatility, which is an important extension of the bivariate BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner. This extension generates improved optimal hedge ratios over the traditional BEKK-GARCH model and static error correction type alternatives.

The exchange rate disconnect puzzle: a resolution?

Early empirical studies of exchange rate determinants demonstrated that fundamentals-based monetary models were unable to outperform the benchmark random walk model in out-of-sample forecasts while later papers found evidence in favor of long-run exchange rate predictability. More recent theoretical works have adopted a microeconomic structure; a utility-based new open economy macroeconomic framework and a rational expectations present value model. Some recent empirical work argues that if the models are adjusted for parameter instability, it is a good predictor of nominal exchange rates while others use aggregate idiosyncratic volatility to generate good predictions. This latest research supports the idea that fundamental economic variables are likely to influence exchange rates especially in the long run and further that the emphasis should change to the economic value or utility based value to assess these macroeconomic models.

Time varying hedge ratios : an application to the Indian stock futures market

This paper investigates time-varying optimal hedge ratios in individual stock futures markets in India. The analysis employs data on individual stock futures from an unexplored but highly traded (both in terms of volume and quantity) emerging market. The hedge ratios derived in this study incorporate mean reversion in volatility, which is an important extension of the bivariate BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner. This extension generates improved optimal hedge ratios over the traditional BEKK-GARCH model and static error correction type alternatives.

Fundamental determinants of the Australian price-earnings multiple

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the factors fundamental to the setting of the price–earnings (P–E) multiple for the Australian stock market. The quarterly P–E ratio for the ASX 200 index is used as a measure of the market wide P–E multiple. It is demonstrated that a large portion of the variation in the P–E multiple can be explained by the dividend payout ratio, interest rates and GDP growth rates. In addition, consumers' confidence—a leading indicator of future growth opportunities, the Australian–US exchange rate—a key determinant of the competitiveness of domestic companies, and volatility of domestic market returns—a risk factor, have incremental explanatory power.

Photochemical Generation and Intramolecular Chemistry of β-Alkoxycarbenes

The photolytic phenanthrene-based precursors for both β-methoxycarbene and β-ethoxycarbene were synthesized with and without a deuterium label attached to the a carbon. The incorporation of this deuterium label allowed distinction between a 1, 2-H shift and a 1, 2-O shift pathway to the respective alkyl vinyl ether, without the influence of a primary kinetic isotope effect. Photolyses of these precursors gave rearrangement products of the expected β-alkoxycarbenes. In the case of β-methoxycarbene, no methyl vinyl ether was observed due to its volatility. However, the appearance of aldehyde peaks in the NMR spectra, from an apparent further rearrangement to acetaldehyde through an enol intermediate, indicated that a 1,2-H shift had occurred. Ethyl vinyl ether was isolated following the photolysis of the β-ethoxycarbene precursor. Quantification of the two pathways showed less than 2% undergoing an ethoxy shift to the ethyl vinyl ether. Yield experiments on this photolysis demonstrated a maximum yield of β-ethoxycarbene as 43%, though this decreased as the experiment continued. Computational work on the β-ethoxycarbene system indicates that the triplet scate is more stable than the singlet. In addition, the activation energy to the 1.2-H shift pathway is remarkably low and is clearly consistent with the observed overwhelming preference for this pathway in the experiment.

"Information effect" of economic news: SPI futures

The present study investigates the behaviour of Share Price Index (SPI) futures returns, volatility, and trading volume behaviour around the announcement of Current Account Deficit (CAD), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation (CPI). The futures market data are sampled at 1-, 5-, and 10-min intervals at the announcement time. After controlling for risk, a significant positive abnormal return can be earned based on the good news release. However, it is unlikely that traders could make an economic profit by exploiting this effect. In this sense, this futures market returns are found to react efficiently to good news. Volatility behaviour around announcements provides the same conclusion. As for the relationship between returns, volatility, and volume upon information arrival, returns are positively related to trading volume, which is inconsistent with the ‘short sales constraint’ theory. Trading volume is found to increase as the level of volatility rises. The redenomination of the SPI futures and options contract from A$100 to A$25 per basis point is found to increase trading volume in excess of that expected due to the redenomination. However, market return and volatility are unaffected by the redenomination.

Modelling linkages between Australian financial futures markets

This paper investigates the dynamic interdependence of the Australian financial futures markets. A multivariate EGARCH model is developed to investigate linkages and stochastic volatility interactions between the 10-year Treasury bond, 90-day bank-accepted bill, and the All Ordinaries share price index futures markets. In this analysis, the empirical results strongly suggest that significant volatility interactions are evident across the 3 markets.

Market orientation and organisational performance: the influence of moderators

The concept of market orientation has received a great deal of attention from marketing scholars, indicating its conceptual and practical importance. The concept has been investigated from many perspectives and examined in many ways. The current general understanding is that market orientation, in most cases, is positively related to some measures of organisational performance and that different internal and external situations moderate this relationship. This paper aims to (1) introduce a measure of market orientation effectiveness, which represents a synthesis of the influence of different internal and external moderators on market orientation, and (2) measure the association of market orientation effectiveness with (a) a marketing performance outcome and (b) the overall organisational financial performance. The results from a survey of 216 large Australian businesses indicated that some variables (an organisation’s strategy of cost leadership, market strength, implementation effectiveness, and market volatility) have positive contributions at different degrees to market orientation effectiveness, while anticipated competitive reaction contributes negatively. Results also indicated that in the sample studied, both market orientation and market orientation effectiveness were more strongly associated with a measure of marketing performance, than with the overall financial performance, which is a function of both marketing and non-marketing initiatives.

A model of the Australia-US exchange rate

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination within an error correction framework. The intention is to identify both long and short term determinants that can be used to forecast the AUD/US exchange rate. The paper identifies a set of significant variables associated with exchange rate movements over a twenty year period from 1984 to 2004. Specifically, the overnight interest rate differential, Australia's foreign trade-weighted exposure to commodity prices as well as exchange rate volatility are variables identified that are able explain movements in the AUDIUS dollar relationship. An error correction model is subsequently constructed that incorporates an equilibrium correction term, a short-term interest rate differential variable, a commodity price variable and a proxy for exchange rate volatility. The model is then used to forecast out of sample and is found to dominate a naIve random walk model based on three different metrics.

The world wide web in modern marketing's contribution to organisational performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the antecedents of organisational performance (OP), both financial and marketing, and the influence of holding a strategic market orientation (MO) where customer-base volatility is taken into account.

Design/methodology/approach – A sample of 167 marketing organisations in Australia was surveyed to test the hypothesised model. Structural equation modelling was employed in the data analysis.

Findings – Use of the world wide web (Web) reported by organisations in this study indicates that there is still separate use of the Web and that it has yet to be fully integrated into the marketing strategy of many organisations. The study finds that traditional marketing effort mediates the relationship between holding a MO and OP in terms of financial indicators.

Research limitations/implications – A major limitation of this study is that it surveys organisations from many industries rather than selected industries. This tends to mask some of the possible outcomes.

Practical implications – The findings in this study suggest that traditional and online elements of marketing effort each mediate the influence of holding a MO on OP, but differently. Innovation culture is found to influence both marketing practice and marketing performance, directly. A single measure of environmental turbulence – customer-base turbulence or churn – negatively affects marketing performance, and ultimately financial performance.

Originality/value – A major contribution of this study is the examination of use of the Web in marketing effort and how this usage influences financial and marketing performance.

The equilibrium relations between stock index and bond index: evidence from Bursa Malaysia

This paper aims at examining the correlation structure, co-integration relationship and volatility linkage between stock and bond market indices over a period from January 1994 to June 2004. This study uses Johansen Cointegratoin test, VECM-X model and GARCH (1,1) with MDH model to examine the existence of long-term relation and volatility linkage between stock and bond market. The findings shed some light on the existence of mean-reverting pattern of correlation across different economic environments.  Findings on co-movement of stock and bond indices suggest an equilibrium relationship with short-term error correction. While evidence from volatility linkage also suggests that bond market cannot provide a meaningful explanation for conditional volatility in stock market, therefore, rejecting the mixture of distribution hypothesis.

Optimal lag-length choice in stable and unstable VAR models under situations of homoscedasticity and ARCH

The performance of different information criteria - namely Akaike, corrected Akaike (AICC), Schwarz-Bayesian (SBC), and Hannan-Quinn - is investigated so as to choose the optimal lag length in stable and unstable vector autoregressive (VAR) models both when autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) is present and when it is not. The investigation covers both large and small sample sizes. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that SBC has relatively better performance in lag-choice accuracy in many situations. It is also generally the least sensitive to ARCH regardless of stability or instability of the VAR model, especially in large sample sizes. These appealing properties of SBC make it the optimal criterion for choosing lag length in many situations, especially in the case of financial data, which are usually characterized by occasional periods of high volatility. SBC also has the best forecasting abilities in the majority of situations in which we vary sample size, stability, variance structure (ARCH or not), and forecast horizon (one period or five). frequently, AICC also has good lag-choosing and forecasting properties. However, when ARCH is present, the five-period forecast performance of all criteria in all situations worsens.

Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji Islands

In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji–US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000–2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar.