Predicting how many animals will be where: how to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models

Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the actions of individual animals as they interact with one another and the landscape in which they live. When used in spatially-explicit landscapes IBMs can show how populations change over time in response to management actions. For instance, IBMs are being used to design strategies of conservation and of the exploitation of fisheries, and for assessing the effects on populations of major construction projects and of novel agricultural chemicals. In such real world contexts, it becomes especially important to build IBMs in a principled fashion, and to approach calibration and evaluation systematically. We argue that insights from physiological and behavioural ecology offer a recipe for building realistic models, and that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a promising technique for the calibration and evaluation of IBMs. IBMs are constructed primarily from knowledge about individuals. In ecological applications the relevant knowledge is found in physiological and behavioural ecology, and we approach these from an evolutionary perspective by taking into account how physiological and behavioural processes contribute to life histories, and how those life histories evolve. Evolutionary life history theory shows that, other things being equal, organisms should grow to sexual maturity as fast as possible, and then reproduce as fast as possible, while minimising per capita death rate. Physiological and behavioural ecology are largely built on these principles together with the laws of conservation of matter and energy. To complete construction of an IBM information is also needed on the effects of competitors, conspecifics and food scarcity; the maximum rates of ingestion, growth and reproduction, and life-history parameters. Using this knowledge about physiological and behavioural processes provides a principled way to build IBMs, but model parameters vary between species and are often difficult to measure. A common solution is to manually compare model outputs with observations from real landscapes and so to obtain parameters which produce acceptable fits of model to data. However, this procedure can be convoluted and lead to over-calibrated and thus inflexible models. Many formal statistical techniques are unsuitable for use with IBMs, but we argue that ABC offers a potential way forward. It can be used to calibrate and compare complex stochastic models and to assess the uncertainty in their predictions. We describe methods used to implement ABC in an accessible way and illustrate them with examples and discussion of recent studies. Although much progress has been made, theoretical issues remain, and some of these are outlined and discussed.

Incremental processing in head-final child language: online comprehension of relative clauses in Turkish-speaking children and adults

The present study investigates the parsing of pre-nominal relative clauses (RCs) in children for the first time with a realtime methodology that reveals moment-to-moment processing patterns as the sentence unfolds. A self-paced listening experiment with Turkish-speaking children (aged 5–8) and adults showed that both groups display a sign of processing cost both in subject and object RCs at different points through the flow of the utterance when integrating the cues that are uninformative (i.e., ambiguous in function) and that are structurally and probabilistically unexpected. Both groups show a processing facilitation as soon as the morphosyntactic dependencies are completed and parse the unbounded dependencies rapidly using the morphosyntactic cues rather than waiting for the clause-final filler. These findings show that five-year-old children show similar patterns to adults in processing the morphosyntactic cues incrementally and in forming expectations about the rest of the utterance on the basis of the probabilistic model of their language.

The non-conservation of potential vorticity by a dynamical core compared with the effects of parametrized physical processes

Numerical models of the atmosphere combine a dynamical core, which approximates solutions to the adiabatic, frictionless governing equations for fluid dynamics, with tendencies arising from the parametrization of other physical processes. Since potential vorticity (PV) is conserved following fluid flow in adiabatic, frictionless circumstances, it is possible to isolate the effects of non-conservative processes by accumulating PV changes in an air-mass relative framework. This “PV tracer technique” is used to accumulate separately the effects on PV of each of the different non-conservative processes represented in a numerical model of the atmosphere. Dynamical cores are not exactly conservative because they introduce, explicitly or implicitly, some level of dissipation and adjustment of prognostic model variables which acts to modify PV. Here, the PV tracers technique is extended to diagnose the cumulative effect of the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core and its characteristics relative to the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. Quantification using the Met Office Unified Model reveals that the magnitude of the non-conservation of PV by the dynamical core is comparable to those from physical processes. Moreover, the residual of the PV budget, when tracing the effects of the dynamical core and physical processes, is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the PV tracers associated with the most active physical processes. The implication of this work is that the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core can be assessed in case studies with a full suite of physics parametrizations and directly compared with the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. The nonconservation of PV by the dynamical core is shown to move the position of the extratropical tropopause while the parametrized physical processes have a lesser effect at the tropopause level.

The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill.

Applications of electrified dust and dust devil electrodynamics to Martian atmospheric electricity

Atmospheric transport and suspension of dust frequently brings electrification, which may be substantial. Electric fields of 10 kVm-1 to 100 kVm-1 have been observed at the surface beneath suspended dust in the terrestrial atmosphere, and some electrification has been observed to persist in dust at levels to 5 km, as well as in volcanic plumes. The interaction between individual particles which causes the electrification is incompletely understood, and multiple processes are thought to be acting. A variation in particle charge with particle size, and the effect of gravitational separation explains to, some extent, the charge structures observed in terrestrial dust storms. More extensive flow-based modelling demonstrates that bulk electric fields in excess of 10 kV m-1 can be obtained rapidly (in less than 10 s) from rotating dust systems (dust devils) and that terrestrial breakdown fields can be obtained. Modelled profiles of electrical conductivity in the Martian atmosphere suggest the possibility of dust electrification, and dust devils have been suggested as a mechanism of charge separation able to maintain current flow between one region of the atmosphere and another, through a global circuit. Fundamental new understanding of Martian atmospheric electricity will result from the ExoMars mission, which carries the DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk Assessment, and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface)-MicroARES (Atmospheric Radiation and Electricity Sensor) instrumentation to Mars in 2016 for the first in situ measurements.

Kerb and urban increment of highly time-resolved trace elements in PM10, PM2.5 and PM1.0 winter aerosol in London during ClearfLo 2012

Ambient concentrations of trace elements with 2 h time resolution were measured in PM10–2.5, PM2.5–1.0 and PM1.0–0.3 size ranges at kerbside, urban background and rural sites in London during winter 2012. Samples were collected using rotating drum impactors (RDIs) and subsequently analysed with synchrotron radiation-induced X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (SR-XRF). Quantification of kerb and urban increments (defined as kerb-to-urban and urban-to-rural concentration ratios, respectively), and assessment of diurnal and weekly variability provided insight into sources governing urban air quality and the effects of urban micro-environments on human exposure. Traffic-related elements yielded the highest kerb increments, with values in the range of 10.4 to 16.6 for SW winds (3.3–6.9 for NE) observed for elements influenced by brake wear (e.g. Cu, Sb, Ba) and 5.7 to 8.2 for SW (2.6–3.0 for NE) for other traffic-related processes (e.g. Cr, Fe, Zn). Kerb increments for these elements were highest in the PM10–2.5 mass fraction, roughly twice that of the PM1.0–0.3 fraction. These elements also showed the highest urban increments (~ 3.0), although no difference was observed between brake wear and other traffic-related elements. All elements influenced by traffic exhibited higher concentrations during morning and evening rush hours, and on weekdays compared to weekends, with the strongest trends observed at the kerbside site, and additionally enhanced by winds coming directly from the road, consistent with street canyon effects. Elements related to mineral dust (e.g. Al, Si, Ca, Sr) showed significant influences from traffic-induced resuspension, as evidenced by moderate kerb (3.4–5.4 for SW, 1.7–2.3 for NE) and urban (~ 2) increments and increased concentrations during peak traffic flow. Elements related to regional transport showed no significant enhancement at kerb or urban sites, with the exception of PM10–2.5 sea salt (factor of up to 2), which may be influenced by traffic-induced resuspension of sea and/or road salt. Heavy-duty vehicles appeared to have a larger effect than passenger vehicles on the concentrations of all elements influenced by resuspension (including sea salt) and wearing processes. Trace element concentrations in London were influenced by both local and regional sources, with coarse and intermediate fractions dominated by traffic-induced resuspension and wearing processes and fine particles influenced by regional transport.

The EarthCARE satellite: the next step forward in global measurements of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation

The collective representation within global models of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and their radiative properties remains unsatisfactory. They constitute the largest source of uncertainty in predictions of climatic change and hamper the ability of numerical weather prediction models to forecast high-impact weather events. The joint European Space Agency (ESA)–Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Earth Clouds, Aerosol and Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) satellite mission, scheduled for launch in 2018, will help to resolve these weaknesses by providing global profiles of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and associated radiative properties inferred from a combination of measurements made by its collocated active and passive sensors. EarthCARE will improve our understanding of cloud and aerosol processes by extending the invaluable dataset acquired by the A-Train satellites CloudSat, Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), and Aqua. Specifically, EarthCARE’s cloud profiling radar, with 7 dB more sensitivity than CloudSat, will detect more thin clouds and its Doppler capability will provide novel information on convection, precipitating ice particle, and raindrop fall speeds. EarthCARE’s 355-nm high-spectral-resolution lidar will measure directly and accurately cloud and aerosol extinction and optical depth. Combining this with backscatter and polarization information should lead to an unprecedented ability to identify aerosol type. The multispectral imager will provide a context for, and the ability to construct, the cloud and aerosol distribution in 3D domains around the narrow 2D retrieved cross section. The consistency of the retrievals will be assessed to within a target of ±10 W m–2 on the (10 km)2 scale by comparing the multiview broadband radiometer observations to the top-of-atmosphere fluxes estimated by 3D radiative transfer models acting on retrieved 3D domains.

Cloud information content analysis of multi-angular measurements in the oxygen A-band: application to 3MI and MSPI

The vertical distribution of cloud cover has a significant impact on a large number of meteorological and climatic processes. Cloud top altitude and cloud geometrical thickness are then essential. Previous studies established the possibility of retrieving those parameters from multi-angular oxygen A-band measurements. Here we perform a study and comparison of the performances of future instruments. The 3MI (Multi-angle, Multi-channel and Multi-polarization Imager) instrument developed by EUMETSAT, which is an extension of the POLDER/PARASOL instrument, and MSPI (Multi-angles Spectro-Polarimetric Imager) develoloped by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory will measure total and polarized light reflected by the Earth's atmosphere–surface system in several spectral bands (from UV to SWIR) and several viewing geometries. Those instruments should provide opportunities to observe the links between the cloud structures and the anisotropy of the reflected solar radiation into space. Specific algorithms will need be developed in order to take advantage of the new capabilities of this instrument. However, prior to this effort, we need to understand, through a theoretical Shannon information content analysis, the limits and advantages of these new instruments for retrieving liquid and ice cloud properties, and especially, in this study, the amount of information coming from the A-Band channel on the cloud top altitude (CTOP) and geometrical thickness (CGT). We compare the information content of 3MI A-Band in two configurations and that of MSPI. Quantitative information content estimates show that the retrieval of CTOP with a high accuracy is possible in almost all cases investigated. The retrieval of CGT seems less easy but possible for optically thick clouds above a black surface, at least when CGT > 1–2 km.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

Film forming solutions based on gelatin and poly(vinyl alcohol) blends: Thermal and rheological characterizations

The objective of this work was to study the theological and thermal properties of film forming solutions (FFS) based on blends of gelatin and poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA). The effect of the PVA concentration and plasticizer presence on the flow behavior, and viscoelastic and thermal properties of FFS was studied by steady-shear flow and oscillatory experiments, and also, by microcalorimetry. The FB presented Newtonian behavior at 30 degrees C, and the viscosity was not affected neither by the PVA concentration nor by the plasticizer. All FFS presented a phase transition during tests applying temperature scanning. It was verified that the PVA affected the viscoelastic properties of FFS by dilution of gelatin. This behavior was confirmed by microcalorimetric analysis. The behaviors of the storage (G`) and loss (G ``) moduli as a function of frequency of FFS obtained at 5 degrees C were typical of physical gels; with the G` higher than the G ``. The strength of the gels was affected by the PVA concentration. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coupling Virus-Induced Gene Silencing to Exogenous Green Fluorescence Protein Expression Provides a Highly Efficient System for Functional Genomics in Arabidopsis and across All Stages of Tomato Fruit Development

Since the advent of the postgenomic era, efforts have focused on the development of rapid strategies for annotating plant genes of unknown function. Given its simplicity and rapidity, virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS) has become one of the preeminent approaches for functional analyses. However, several problems remain intrinsic to the use of such a strategy in the study of both metabolic and developmental processes. The most prominent of these is the commonly observed phenomenon of ""sectoring"" the tissue regions that are not effectively targeted by VIGS. To better discriminate these sectors, an effective marker system displaying minimal secondary effects is a prerequisite. Utilizing a VIGS system based on the tobacco rattle virus vector, we here studied the effect of silencing the endogenous phytoene desaturase gene (pds) and the expression and subsequent silencing of the exogenous green fluorescence protein (gfp) on the metabolism of Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) leaves and tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) fruits. In leaves, we observed dramatic effects on primary carbon and pigment metabolism associated with the photobleached phenotype following the silencing of the endogenous pds gene. However, relatively few pleiotropic effects on carbon metabolism were observed in tomato fruits when pds expression was inhibited. VIGS coupled to gfp constitutive expression revealed no significant metabolic alterations after triggering of silencing in Arabidopsis leaves and a mild effect in mature green tomato fruits. By contrast, a wider impact on metabolism was observed in ripe fruits. Silencing experiments with an endogenous target gene of interest clearly demonstrated the feasibility of cosilencing in this system; however, carefully constructed control experiments are a prerequisite to prevent erroneous interpretation.

Hybridization and introgression across different ploidy levels in the Neotropical orchids Epidendrum fulgens and E-puniceoluteum (Orchidaceae)

The hypothesis of gene flow between species with large differences in chromosome numbers has rarely been tested in the wild, mainly because species of different ploidy are commonly assumed to be reproductively isolated from each other because of instantaneous and strong postzygotic barriers. In this study, a broad-scale survey of molecular variation was carried out between two orchid species with different ploidy levels: Epidendrum fulgens (2n = 2x = 24 chromosomes) and Epidendrum puniceoluteum (2n = 4x = 52 chromosomes). To test the strength of their reproductive barriers, we investigated the distribution of genetic variation in sympatric and allopatric populations of these two species and conducted crossing experiments. Nuclear and plastid microsatellite loci were used to genotype 463 individuals from eight populations across the geographical range of both species along the Brazilian coastal plain. All six sympatric populations analysed presented hybrid zones, indicating that hybridization between E. fulgens and E. puniceoluteum is a common phenomenon. Bayesian assignment analysis detected the presence of F(1) and F(2) individuals and also signs of introgression, demonstrating a high potential for interspecific gene flow. Introgression occurs preferentially from E. fulgens to E. puniceoluteum. Pure parental individuals of both species display strong genotype-habitat associations, indicating that environment-dependent selection could be acting in all hybrid zones. This study suggests that hybridization and introgression are evolutionary processes playing a role in the diversification of Epidendrum and indicates the importance of investigations of hybrid zones in understanding reproductive barriers and speciation processes in Neotropical orchid species.

Nitrosyl ethylenediaminetetraacetate ruthenium(II) complex promotes cellular growth and could be used as nitric oxide donor in plants

Over recent years nitric oxide (NO) not only has appeared as an important endogenous signaling molecule in plants and as a mediator in many developmental and physiological processes, but has also received recognition as a plant hormone. The impressive recent achievements in elucidating the role of NO in plants have come about by the application of NO donors. The aim herein was to study the effects of the different NO donors, sodium nitroprusside (SNP) and the nitrosyl ethylenediaminetetraacetate ruthenium(II) ([Ru(NO)(Hedta)]) complex on cellular growth in embryogenic suspension cultures of Araucaria angustifolia. Appraisal of our data revealed that [Ru(NO)(Hedta)] stimulated about 60% of cellular growth in embryogenic suspension cultures of A. angustifolia, with results similar to those observed with the SNP donor. Nevertheless, application of the NO scavenger PTIO (2-phenyl-4,4,5,5-tetramethylimidazoline-1-oxyl-3-oxide) inhibited this cellular growth in both. Cellular growth was correlated with an increase in endogenous NO levels after 21 days of culture, especially in treatments with NO donors. Our results demonstrated that the [Ru(NO)Hedta] complex could possibly be used as a NO donor in plants. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neuronal Expression of Cd36, Cd44, and Cd83 Antigen Transcripts Maps to Distinct and Specific Murine Brain Circuits

Cells recruited by the innate immune response rely on surface-expressed molecules in order to receive signals from the local environment and to perform phagocytosis, cell adhesion, and others processes linked to host defense. Hundreds of surface antigens designated through a cluster of differentiation (CD) number have been used to identify particular populations of leukocytes. Surprisingly, we verified that the genes that encode Cd36 and Cd83 are constitutively expressed in specific neuronal cells. For instance, Cd36 mRNA is expressed in some regions related to circuitry involved in pheromone responses and reproductive behavior. Cd44 expression, reanalyzed and detailed here, is associated with the laminar formation and midline thalamic nuclei in addition to striatum, extended amygdala, and a few hypothalamic, cortical, and hippocampal regions. A systemic immune challenge was able to increase Cd44 expression quickly in the area postrema and motor nucleus of the vagus but not in regions presenting expressive constitutive expression. In contrast to Cd36 and Cd44, Cd83 message was widely distributed from the olfactory bulb to the brain stem reticular formation, sparing the striatopallidum, olivary region, and cerebellum. Its pattern of expression nevertheless remained strongly associated with hypothalamic, thalamic, and hindbrain nuclei. Unlike the other transcripts, Cd83 mRNA was rapidly modulated by restraint stress. Our results indicate that these molecules might play a role in specific neural circuits and present functions other than those attributed to leukocyte biology. The data also suggest that these surface proteins, or their associated mRNA, could be used to label neurons in specific circuits/regions. J. Comp. Neurol. 517:906-924, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Long-Term Culture of Mouse Embryonic Stem Cell-Derived Adherent Neurospheres and Functional Neurons

Innumerous protocols, using the mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells as model for in vitro study of neurons functional properties and features, have been developed. Most of these protocols are short lasting, which, therefore, does not allow a careful analysis of the neurons maturation, aging, and death processes. We describe here a novel and efficient long-lasting protocol for in vitro ES cells differentiation into neuronal cells. It consists of obtaining embryoid bodies, followed by induction of neuronal differentiation with retinoic acid of nonadherent embryoid bodies (three-dimensional model), which further allows their adherence and formation of adherent neurospheres (AN, bi-dimensional model). The AN can be maintained for at least 12 weeks in culture under repetitive mechanical splitting, providing a constant microenvironment (in vitro niche) for the neuronal progenitor cells avoiding mechanical dissociation of AN. The expression of neuron-specific proteins, such as nestin, sox1, beta III-tubulin, microtubule-associated protein 2, neurofilament medium protein, Tau, neuronal nuclei marker, gamma-aminobutyric acid, and 5-hydroxytryptamine, were confirmed in these cells maintained during 3 months under several splitting. Additionally, expression pattern of microtubule-associated proteins, such as lissencephaly (Lis1) and nuclear distribution element-like (Ndel1), which were shown to be essential for differentiation and migration of neurons during embryogenesis, was also studied. As expected, both proteins were expressed in undifferentiated ES cells, AN, and nonrosette neurons, although presenting different spatial distribution in AN. In contrast to previous studies, using cultured neuronal cells derived from embryonic and adult tissues, only Ndel1 expression was observed in the centrosome region of early neuroblasts from AN. Mature neurons, obtained from ES cells in this work, display ionic channels and oscillations of membrane electrical potential typical of electrically excitable cells, which is a characteristic feature of the functional central nervous system (CNS) neurons. Taken together, our study demonstrated that AN are a long-term culture of neuronal cells that can be used to analyze the process of neuronal differentiation dynamics. Thus, the protocol described here provides a new experimental model for studying neurological diseases associated with neuronal differentiation during early development, as well as it represents a novel source of functional cells that can be used as tools for testing the effects of toxins and/or drugs on neuronal cells.